charts discussion Old Town Road officially breaks record

[Green]

With Drake's album bomb next week another bunch of songs will go recurrent too.

[Hurem]

43 - 50 are so close

[brianc33710]

3 hours ago, Hurem said:

Radio:

Girl: 30.2M

Better: 27.2M

Going Bad: 26.6M

Shallow: 26.2M

Con Calma: -

Middle Child: -

Sicko Mode: -

 

Spotify:

Middle Child: 3.6M

Going Bad: 3.08M

Better: 2.61M

Sicko Mode: 2.48M

Shallow: 1.88M

Con Calma: 1.78M

Girl: -

 

iTunes:

Shallow: #41

Sicko Mode: -

Better: -

Middle Child: -

Con Calma: -

Going Bad: -

Girl: 

 

It's going to be interesting to see what songs make it. Seems like Con Calma is the only one that's 100% getting the chop. 

I think HH and SM will go SRC after this coming week anyway.

[tde]

Cash ****

[FAN]

Are Señorita & Truth Hurts going to pass Bad Guy after this next week?

[brianc33710]

On 8/3/2019 at 7:24 AM, Brando said:

Week 19 possible?

Well, OTR is back to #1 when combining the #2 total with the 2 versions 101-50.  It's at around 1.250 with Boyfriend at 1.000.  So, who knows lol. Each extra week with with OT rewriting the #1 record will give it a boost, although with diminishing returns.  

 

I would really like OTR to reach 2 MM.  He is the last one who could do so with the newest songs to reach that label.   Adele could do it too, but by then sales could be so flat that even she couldn't get more than a 300-350 k opening week.

 

Old Bloke on UK Mix had OTRs total at 1.206 MM headed into this week, or 46 k since the previous tracking period.  I think OTR will add 50 k to that total this week with its surge following breaking the record. So, I say 1.256 MM sold after this last week.  OTR will also get at least one VMA award,

 

Also, one of the lower-level Country awards shows will want X and BRC to preform OTR for their in-house (and viewers watching at home) audience.  So 1.5 MM downloads for OTR is now a lock.

 

Old Bloke on UK mix now has OTRs ODS streaming up to 743.2 MM, which was 26 MM more than the week before.  So, OTR will probably get 28-30 M ODS for the total, which would take it to around 772 MM.  So, OTR would then need 228 MM more ODS to reach 1 B ODS.

 

So as far as potential OTR thresholds, OTR will get to 1.5 MM downloads. 

 

I think OTR could probably get to 1 B ODS, but that's not certain. 

 

The hardest hurdle for OTR to reach is 2 MM downloads.

 

The least likely barrier for OTR to overcome is the 2 MM download total.  I know Despacito was still selling 80 K/wk at 2.2 MM, but then took many months more to finally reach 3 MM.  SOY is pretty close, probably at around 2.9 MM.  Perfect is just over 2 MM, and it won't get much further than that.  I think Meant To Be sold 1.5 MM, which is impressive by 2018 standards, but won't get any further than that.

[FAN]

Can someone post a radio/iTunes/Spotify/Apple Music/amazon break down of OTR, Bad Guy, Señorita & Truth Hurts so we can see how tight the race is becoming? 

[Konril]

18th week... Hihi 

[Green]

I fixed my predictions using Kworb's sales predictions:

 

1	Old Town Road	498
2	Bad Guy	410
3	Señorita	343
4	Truth Hurts	331
5	No Guidance	327
6	Talk	310
7	I don't care	296
8	Goodbyes	231
9	Sucker	223
10	Sunflower	211
11	If I Can't Have You	210
12	Ransom	206
13	Suge	196
14	Money In The Grave	193
15	The Git Up	187
16	You Need To Calm Down	176
17	Someone You Loved	172
18	Hey Look Ma, I Made It	171
19	Dancing with a stranger	166
20	Wow	160
21	Beer Never Broke My Heart	152
22	Without Me	142
23	Pop Out	140
24	God's Country	139
25	Beautiful People	139
26	The London	133
27	Speechless	132
28	Happier	128
29	Never really over	124
30	Panini	119
31	High Hopes	116
32	Sweet But Psycho	116
33	My Type	116
34	7 rings	115
35	Whiskey Glasses	113
36	Knockin' Boots	111
37	Shotta Flow	108
38	Gold Roses	107
39	How do you sleep?	105
40	Cash ****	104
41	All To Myself	100
42	Rumor	98
43	China	96
44	Baby	95
45	Better	94
46	Act Up	94
47	Clout	93
48	Rearview Town	92
49	Shallow	91
50	SICKO MODE	89

[Green]

Next week the race for the #1 is gonna be close and not because of Ariana. OTR Vs. Bad Guy Vs. Señorita

And Truth Hurts is not that far from Señorita neither

 

Ariana could debut around #5. Unless Scooter pulls something in the next days...

[Brando]

2 hours ago, Green said:

Next week the race for the #1 is gonna be close and not because of Ariana. OTR Vs. Bad Guy Vs. Señorita

And Truth Hurts is not that far from Señorita neither

 

Ariana could debut around #5. Unless Scooter pulls something in the next days...

Hopefully 18th week at #1 news will give him a push. He needs to discount  

[Green]

9 hours ago, FAN said:

Can someone post a radio/iTunes/Spotify/Apple Music/amazon break down of OTR, Bad Guy, Señorita & Truth Hurts so we can see how tight the race is becoming? 

 

Radio:

Billie Eilish - bad guy - 116.82M (+1.75)
Lizzo - Truth Hurts - 105.64M (+1.48)
Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Senorita - 102.31M (+2.23)
Lil Nas X - Old Town Road - 55.95M (-0.67)

 

itunes:

1. Lil Nas X - Old Town Road (feat. Billy Ray Cyrus) [Remix]   1.0000

98. Lil Nas X, Billy Ray Cyrus & Diplo - Old Town Road (Diplo Remix) 0.0498

136. Lil Nas X - Old Town Road (feat. Billy Ray Cyrus) [Remix]

373. Lil Nas X - Old Town Road (Remix) [feat. Billy Ray Cyrus, Young Thug & Mason Ramsey]

385. Lil Nas X - Old Town Road (feat. RM of BTS) [Seoul Town Road Remix]

 

3. Ariana Grande & Social House - Boyfriend 0.6820 (it's already down to #4)

259. Ariana Grande & Social House - Boyfriend

 

4. Lizzo - Truth Hurts 0.6774  (up to #3 now)

 

6. Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita 0.5610

165. Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita

 

8. Billie Eilish - bad guy   0.4150

104. Billie Eilish & Justin Bieber - bad guy

 

 

US spotify:

2. boyfriend (with Social House) by Ariana Grande 1,352,739

3. Señorita by Shawn Mendes 1,192,823

4. Truth Hurts by Lizzo 1,113,629

 

15. bad guy by Billie Eilish 647,702

27. bad guy (with Justin Bieber) by Billie Eilish 466,244

 

16. Old Town Road - Remix by Lil Nas X 631,743

106. Old Town Road by Lil Nas X 261,915

 

Apple Music:

9. Lizzo - Truth Hurts

10. Ariana Grande & Social House - Boyfriend

16. Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita

17. Billie Eilish - bad guy

25. Lil Nas X - Old Town Road (feat. Billy Ray Cyrus) [Remix]

274. Lil Nas X - Old Town Road

443. Lil Nas X - Old Town Road (Remix) [feat. Billy Ray Cyrus, Young Thug & Mason Ramsey]

 

US Youtube (saturday):

1= Lil Nas X - Old Town Road (feat. Billy Ray Cyrus) 3,197,484

4. Shawn Mendes - Señorita (Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello) 1,193,452

5. Lizzo - Truth Hurts 1,082,050

9. Billie Eilish - bad guy  990,696

 

Youtube still hasn't updated Ariana's numbers.

 

 

Amazon streaming:

1. Old Town Road (Remix)

2. Señorita

4. bad guy

5. Truth Hurts

 

[Green]

I hope Bad Guy gets it next week. It's the last chance

[FAN]

So if Señorita is ahead on Spotify, Apple Music, iTunes & amazon with all versions combined and the radio gap is small, why is Bad Guy ahead on the Hot 100? 

[K$Ellie]

his lead on Youtube and iTunes

[Green]

41 minutes ago, FAN said:

So if Señorita is ahead on Spotify, Apple Music, iTunes & amazon with all versions combined and the radio gap is small, why is Bad Guy ahead on the Hot 100? 

 

Because OTR and Bad Guy's youtube streams are always bigger than predicted.

[FAN]

12 minutes ago, K$Ellie said:

his lead on Youtube and iTunes

Ridiculous

 

2 minutes ago, Green said:

 

Because OTR and Bad Guy's youtube streams are always bigger than predicted.

Frauds! 

[Green]

34 minutes ago, FAN said:

Ridiculous

 

Frauds! 

 

No, Youtube music insights and HDD don't count everything

 

That's why the predictions have mistakes compared to what Soundscan reports to Billboard.

 

For example even with Señorita I have to add 3 million more streams to have the same number of streams reported by Billboard.

[FAN]

3 minutes ago, Green said:

 

No, Youtube music insights and HDD don't count everything

 

That's why the predictions have mistakes compared to what Soundscan reports to Billboard.

 

For example even with Señorita I have to add 3 million more streams to have the same number of streams reported by Billboard.

Interesting! 

 

When the articles comes out today can someone post the points between all the songs so we can see how close they are? 

[Green]

31 minutes ago, FAN said:

Interesting! 

 

When the articles comes out today can someone post the points between all the songs so we can see how close they are? 

 

The problem is that Billboard only gives numbers for the top 2 and the songs that go top 10 for the first time. I wish they would give numbers for the whole top 10.

 

Today they will probably give numbers for OTR, Bad Guy and No Guidance (because it returns to the top 10 because of the video release).

[FAN]

1 minute ago, Green said:

 

The problem is that Billboard only gives numbers for the top 2 and the songs that go top 10 for the first time. I wish they would give numbers for the whole top 10.

 

Today they will probably give numbers for OTR, Bad Guy and No Guidance (because it returns to the top 10 because of the video release).

Hmmmm well it’s still good to see the top 2. 

 

After this week do you think Señorita will take over Bad Guy? 

 

[Joey....]

black gay history 

[Green]

37 minutes ago, FAN said:

Hmmmm well it’s still good to see the top 2. 

 

After this week do you think Señorita will take over Bad Guy? 

 

 

I need to see the streams that Billboard will report today to have a better idea.

 

But in 2 weeks I think Señorita will be higher.

 

[Tempo]

Rih better release, I do not want señorita to go 1 

 

I hope OTR gets 19 weeks.

[Badboidami]

23 minutes ago, Tempo said:

Rih better release, I do not want señorita to go 1 

 

I hope OTR gets 19 weeks.

Same tbh