https://fortune.com/2024/05/27/china-economy-outlook-growth-us-gdp-forecast-aging-population-demographics-high-income/

 

U.S. economic growth will eclipse China's by 2031, and the transformation Beijing needs for a revival may take 'several decades, if not longer,' top demographer says

 

Quote

China's rapidly aging population will be an obstacle to its economic growth, which will be surpassed by the U.S. in the next several years, according to a top demographer.

Fu-Xian Yi, a specialist in reproductive science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and an expert on China's demographics, pointed out that the share of the Chinese population that's over 65 had jumped to 15.4% in 2023 from 7% in 1998.

 

"Historically, no country has managed to achieve 4% growth in the subsequent 12 years after the elderly made up 15% of the population," he wrote Wednesday in Project Syndicate. "The average growth rate for high-income countries during this period is just 1.8%."

 

While the U.S. remains the world's largest economy, its growth rate has lagged China's, even as the No. 2 economy has slowed sharply in recent years. Last year, China's GDP expanded by 5.2%, compared to 2.5% for the U.S.

 

But Yi sees the tables turning by the next decade and drew a parallel between China's aging population and how similar demographic trajectories cooled off the Japanese and German economies.

 

"Based on these historical trends, China's growth rate is likely to slow to 3% by 2028 and fall below that of the U.S. from 2031 to 2035," he predicted.

 

And people say the US is collapsing. 

Thats great but who will actually benefit from this? China has lifted 100s of millions out of poverty, life expectancy has eclipsed US and infrastructure has rapidly improved (just look at the public transport) while the US has gone the complete opposite way. I'm not saying China is perfect or even better but economic growth means nothing if everyday citizens don't benefit.

why should we care about US economic growth, when only the 1% will be able to benefit from it? 

13 minutes ago, Cesar said:

why should we care about US economic growth, when only the 1% will be able to benefit from it? 

How do you figure? 1 out of 10 Americans is a millionaire. Gen Z is the richest generation ever. Wage increases for low-income earners have outpaced inflation.

this thread is real quiet 

 

where are the foreign girlies with "America is over!!!!!!!!!!! Empire has collapseddddddd yesssssssss!" 

This person is not a reliable source.

Yet millions of Americans work paycheck to paycheck, live in poverty, don't have healthcare, no effective national public transportations, crumbling infrastructure, no widespread student loan forgiveness, homelessness crisis, women's reproductive rights going backwards, etc.

 

If only so much of their money wasn't currently funding a genocide instead, maybe they'd care about said economic growth.  

why is China rapidly slowing down? it was meant to become the taylor swift of global economies 

I guess this has to do with the age population. The US has a younger population than China which means it'll be beneficial in the long-term. However, will the US fix the social inequality inside the country? 

Edited June 13, 20242 yr by Princess Aurora

Just now, shyboi said:

why is China rapidly slowing down? it was meant to become the taylor swift of global economies 

Aging population and they recently had their own 2008 financial crisis.

2 minutes ago, Princess Aurora said:

Aging population and they recently had their own 2008 financial crisis.

 

imagine a world where US & China become allies and work together towards a better, more sustainable, environmentally ethical and peaceful feature? 

*gazes over into the distance thinking about Chinese high speed rail*

 

*quietly starts to sob in American*

I think it's interesting that the past 15 years or so, starting with the recession in the late 2000's, was sort of a "lost decade" in the US despite economic growth, which was slower than usual.  Countries tend to invest the most in public good during times of massive prosperity, so if we are estimated to undergo another period of such growth, hopefully that means better public services, transportation, wage growth, etc that can benefit everyone and help our must vulnerable.

3 minutes ago, shyboi said:

 

imagine a world where US & China become allies and work together towards a better, more sustainable, environmentally ethical and peaceful feature? 

Oh If Only.mp3 I'm sure the world would be a better place

Too bad this means little to the 90% of America who's relative wages have stagnated and will be in a worse position in 2030 than they are now. 

1 hour ago, TheHanyo said:

How do you figure? 1 out of 10 Americans is a millionaire. Gen Z is the richest generation ever. Wage increases for low-income earners have outpaced inflation.

This is a bit of a sleight of hand. 

 

About 8% of Americans have a net worth over a $1m when counting the values of assets like homes, which definitely should be a measurement of wealth. 

 

But Americans being disproportionately wealthy compared to the rest of the world (not really a good thing on America's part due to how that wealth is collected) is of notice because America has such drastic wealth *inequality* for such a rich nation. 

 

The average American is wealthier than the average citizen of any other nation, but also 1) there is greater wealth disparity in the US than any other developed nation and this 2) ends up resulting in subsets of Americans experiencing a level of poverty unusual for most other developed nations. There are people in states like Alabama or Louisiana who experience poverty usually associated with - and I don't like this term- "third world countries".

 

This can be seen in the collasping life expectancy rates and other measures of poor diet and health many Americans experience related to economic inequality. 

 

Wage increases within low income workers have "increased the most" on a percentage basis, yet the actual value of the money low income Americans are making isn't keeping up with the real prices of goods and essentials currently.

 

It's a bit silly for neoliberal economists to tout that minimum wage workers have enjoyed "the largest (relative) gains" because a $2 increase in real wages, for example, was a large % jump yet the actual real value of their dollars 1) pales in comparison to how rich the Top 1% got during the pandemic and 2) how prices have increased due to corporate price-gouging. 

 

You'll see lib Twitter pundits be like "WAGES FOR THE POOREST WORKERS HAVE INCREASED 18%, WHILE PRICES OVERALL ARE UP ONLY 17% SO THE ECONOMY IS GOOD!!!" and It's like...mama, did you think poor peopoe didn't struggle to already afford things? What is the purpose of citing the % change in wages is just slightly over the % change in prices for poor Americans if poor Americans' actual real wages have always failed to meet the actual cost of living? People don't want to be "very slightly less poor" or "getting poorer slower". They wanna do well and feel in control of their lives. 

Edited June 13, 20242 yr by Communion

11 minutes ago, Communion said:

*gazes over into the distance thinking about Chinese high speed rail*

 

*quietly starts to sob in American*

I will never get over this 

This would be more notable if the benefits of said growth were actually felt by most citizens instead of just those at the top. 

Why are people celebrating like they will actually benefit from this? 
 

 

Just say you hate China and move on.

Cool. Will we have affordable housing then? 

55 minutes ago, byzantium said:

Too bad this means little to the 90% of America who's relative wages have stagnated and will be in a worse position in 2030 than they are now. 

 

will Trump make americans poorer or richer? imo, poorer 

55 minutes ago, Communion said:

This is a bit of a sleight of hand. 

There wouldn't be hundreds of thousands of people trying to desperately enter the US via the border right now if there wasn't an insane amount of opportunity here. Kinda tired of the insane privilege that Americans have and they don't even realize it. I mean, if the #1 cause being pushed by young people right now is about a foreign conflict they don't even have to fight in-- and not healthcare, jobs, food, etc., then I'd say the US is in pretty damn good shape lmao.

Edited June 13, 20242 yr by TheHanyo

9 minutes ago, shyboi said:

 

will Trump make americans poorer or richer? imo, poorer 

It's a bit of mute issue because neither party really is invested in helping most Americans.  

8 minutes ago, TheHanyo said:

There wouldn't be hundreds of thousands of people trying to desperately enter the US via the border right now if there wasn't an insane amount of opportunity here.

Wealth*, not opportunity. 

 

8 minutes ago, TheHanyo said:

the #1 cause being pushed by young people right now is about a foreign conflict

50k Americans die a year due to not being able to afford healthcare. 

 

A figure that was central to the largely contentious fight in 2020 for the Democratic Party. A fight that has largely been sidelined because the Democratic president says he would veto a law that made healthcare a right in the US. 

 

For reference, there are more uninsured or under-insured Americans than there exists people in many large nations.