discussion Calls grow for Sotomayor to step aside, make room for other Dem justices

[GraceRandolph]

 

[Cruel Summer]

That's interesting. On what basis? I read the referenced article, and it seems to stem from the fact that she has diabetes and that she had paramedics called to her home one time six years ago, and traveled with medical staff two times the next month. Is that really sufficient justification to start panicking that she's about to die? Would the current Senate even actually confirm a left-leaning replacement, or any replacement at all before the election, given the presence of Manchin and Sinema? Are Democrats who sympathize with this perspective admitting that they expect defeat in November, and that they think this is literally the only chance for the foreseeable future to nominate a left-leaning justice for any reason? This seems like something that would essentially yield no positive results right now and that would potentially just set up a nightmare 7-2 majority in the case of a Trump win when she could very easily make it through that term just fine. And further, I really have to know - who do any Democrats that support Joe Biden (age eighty ******* two by the next Inauguration Day) think they are to call for the retirement of a comparatively young and spritely 69 year old? Something about this situation stinks!

[Aston Martin]

I've said this in the Election Megathread already, but this woman will go down in US history very positively if she refuses to repeat RBG's arrogance and steps out of the way. A progressive Latina justice in her 40s-50s can be nominated in her place, and Justice Sotomayor can spend the rest of her life living stress-free and comfortably on her SC pension (which she is eligible to get all of) and book sales. We can't risk the court going further to the right. 

[Cruel Summer]

10 minutes ago, Aston Martin said:

I've said this in the Election Megathread already, but this woman will go down in US history very positively if she refuses to repeat RBG's arrogance and steps out of the way. A progressive Latina justice in her 40s-50s can be nominated in her place, and Justice Sotomayor can spend the rest of her life living stress-free and comfortably on her SC pension (which she is eligible to get all of) and book sales. We can't risk the court going further to the right. 

How certain are we that a meaningfully left-leaning replacement has the votes necessary for confirmation? Is it not a serious risk for her to vacate her seat, because of the chance that the only nominee Democrats can push through is further to the right than her? Or is the basic idea just that nominating and confirming someone more moderate is worth the trade-off if they're young enough to keep that seat safe from far right nominees in the event of another Trump term? I don't understand the calls for her to step down at all right now unless we're certain a Biden-nominated replacement will be confirmed.

[Aston Martin]

2 minutes ago, Cruel Summer said:

That's interesting. On what basis? I read the referenced article, and it seems to stem from the fact that she has diabetes and that she had paramedics called to her home one time six years ago, and traveled with medical staff two times the next month. Is that really sufficient justification to start panicking that she's about to die?

With the 2024 pres. election being a tossup and the senate map for Dems looking pretty tough in 2024 and over the course of the next few election cycles, it would be wise for Dems to act proactively to try to mitigate more right-wing damage to the SC going forward. Part of that entails strategic retirements, especially when the justice(s) in question are over the median US retirement age and have pre-existing health conditions that could increase the likelihood that they could become medically incapicitated. 

 

5 minutes ago, Cruel Summer said:

Would the current Senate even actually confirm a left-leaning replacement, or any replacement at all before the election, given the presence of Manchin and Sinema?

Manchin and Sinema both confirmed KBJ to the Supreme Court, and as far as I know, voted with Dems for all of their judicial nominees as of late. So even though I don't like either one, I'd say yes. Since both are going to be out of the Senate at the end of the term anyway, they wouldn't have to worry about appeasing right wingers so they'd also probably do it knowing that pissing Repubs off at that point isn't going to have any electoral consequences for them. 

 

7 minutes ago, Cruel Summer said:

Are Democrats who sympathize with this perspective admitting that they expect defeat in November, and that they think this is literally the only chance for the foreseeable future to nominate a left-leaning justice for any reason?

National polls show the election going either way, and swing state polls have looked much better for Trump than they have for Biden. So I'd look at this more like an insurance policy to try to prevent a 7-2 SC in the event of a Biden loss. Especially since Alito and Thomas would probably strategically step down should Trump win the Presidency and Repubs. win the Senate and 40-50 year old Christian Nationalists would be replacing them. 

 

10 minutes ago, Cruel Summer said:

This seems like something that would essentially yield no positive results right now and that would potentially just set up a nightmare 7-2 majority in the case of a Trump win when she could very easily make it through that term just fine.

The 7-2 majority is much more likely with a Trump win than it would be by taking the opportunity to solidify a 3-seat bench of liberal justices while Dems have control of the Senate and Presidency. 

 

11 minutes ago, Cruel Summer said:

And further, I really have to know - who do any Democrats that support Joe Biden (age eighty ******* two by the next Inauguration Day) think they are to call for the retirement of a comparatively young and spritely 69 year old? Something about this situation stinks!

I don't personally support Joe Biden and live in a solidly red state. So I will be leaving the top of the ticket blank while voting Dem down ballot. I have voiced my dissatisfaction about Joe Biden running for reelection with his age and approval rating and will continue to do so. Sotomayor is one of my favorite justices, but I think it's better to play it safe and try to solidify having 3 (at the minimum) liberal justices on the court for decades to come. We can't afford another RBG.

[Cruel Summer]

Just now, Aston Martin said:

With the 2024 pres. election being a tossup and the senate map for Dems looking pretty tough in 2024 and over the course of the next few election cycles, it would be wise for Dems to act proactively to try to mitigate more right-wing damage to the SC going forward. Part of that entails strategic retirements, especially when the justice(s) in question are over the median US retirement age and have pre-existing health conditions that could increase the likelihood that they could become medically incapicitated. 

 

Manchin and Sinema both confirmed KBJ to the Supreme Court, and as far as I know, voted with Dems for all of their judicial nominees as of late. So even though I don't like either one, I'd say yes. Since both are going to be out of the Senate at the end of the term anyway, they wouldn't have to worry about appeasing right wingers so they'd also probably do it knowing that pissing Repubs off at that point isn't going to have any electoral consequences for them. 

 

National polls show the election going either way, and swing state polls have looked much better for Trump than they have for Biden. So I'd look at this more like an insurance policy to try to prevent a 7-2 SC in the event of a Biden loss. Especially since Alito and Thomas would probably strategically step down should Trump win the Presidency and Repubs. win the Senate and 40-50 year old Christian Nationalists would be replacing them. 

 

The 7-2 majority is much more likely with a Trump win than it would be by taking the opportunity to solidify a 3-seat bench of liberal justices while Dems have control of the Senate and Presidency. 

 

I don't personally support Joe Biden and live in a solidly red state. So I will be leaving the top of the ticket blank while voting Dem down ballot. I have voiced my dissatisfaction about Joe Biden running for reelection with his age and approval rating and will continue to do so. Sotomayor is one of my favorite justices, but I think it's better to play it safe and try to solidify having 3 (at the minimum) liberal justices on the court for decades to come. We can't afford another RBG.

This did help me understand the perspective here more. Thank you! I'm maybe being too overly wary of the risks and not wary enough of the risks on the other side.

[Aston Martin]

Just now, Cruel Summer said:

This did help me understand the perspective here more. Thank you! I'm maybe being too overly wary of the risks and not wary enough of the risks on the other side.

I definitely see and understand the points that you brought up as well, and it's super frustrating that we're in a situation with the SC where it seems like there are a ton of risks with either course of action. I do think that the 48 Dem senators + 3 Independent senators would be enough to confirm another Biden pick during an election year (especially since Repubs pulled this **** in 2020 and pushed ACB to take RBG's seat less than a month before the election). I'm sure the Dem. higher ups would make sure to get that confirmed by each senator behind the scenes before Sotomayor were to ever make a retirement announcement. And we can hope that Thomas or Alito croak between now and November, but evil people seem to live forever so I'm unfortunately not banking on it.

 

But it is so ******* frustrating that so many people in government are sticking around well into their 70s, 80s, or even 90s. It's one thing if an entertainer keeps going at this age because their career choices aren't affecting the laws and lives of hundreds of millions of people. But those of politicians are. These people have more money and influence than most people could even dream of, I just wish they'd know when to step aside (and actually do it).  

[Leppie]

Imagine if Trump wins and Sotomayor, Alito and Thomas are all replaced with younger conservatives

 

7-2 court with 6 out of the 7 being the under age of 60  

 

 

[Twixters]

13 minutes ago, Leppie said:

Imagine if Trump wins and Sotomayor, Alito and Thomas are all replaced with younger conservatives

 

7-2 court with 6 out of the 7 being the under age of 60  

 

 

That's what they are hoping. 
 

 

I hope Biden gets in. 

[Wonderland]

It honestly doesn't matter when she retires.

 

The only way Democrats get a balanced court again is to expand it - and that will occur with or without her seat.

[ClashAndBurn]

2 hours ago, Cruel Summer said:

Are Democrats who sympathize with this perspective admitting that they expect defeat in November, and that they think this is literally the only chance for the foreseeable future to nominate a left-leaning justice for any reason?

I think this is extremely likely. Even if Biden wins, it's highly likely that he'll lose the Senate despite taking back the House by a slim majority (which is... the most useless outcome, since the House can't do **** without the Senate, but the Senate alone actually controls cabinet confirmations and judicial appointments).

 

Democrats have a very difficult path to just hold on to a 50-seat tie (for Kamala to be the tie-breaker) Manchin going into retirement means Dems can't afford to lose ANY toss-ups at all, and that's just not likely. And in 2026, the path to 50 seats becomes even less possible due to Ossoff who will likely get absolutely destroyed without Warnock on the ballot to carry the black vote to the polls.

[woohoo]

I don't really see the point of her retiring or not retiring. 6-3 or 7-2 are equally as bad and if Trump does win he's gonna do whatever he wants anyway. If you aren't straight white male rich and Christian in this country breathing will be about the only right you have and either way a 6/3 or 7/2 court is gonna uphold whatever dystopian laws they have in store for us. The history books won't matter if she doesn't take RBGs path because they'll ban them or burn them. 

[GraceRandolph]

2 minutes ago, woohoo said:

I don't really see the point of her retiring or not retiring. 6-3 or 7-2 are equally as bad

Actually 7-2 is worse.

 

 

[woohoo]

2 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

Actually 7-2 is worse.

 

 

Not really. Look at what they've already done and one more conservative on the court isn't gonna change the outcome of anything post 2024. They're playing semi-nice atm with some things but if Trump wins they're going all in. Now if it were closer like 5/4 I'd agree but the senate is lost for a 10-15 years anyway or maybe for good so what's the point of even trying? If a dem president can't get anything but a right of center judge at best it's essentially hopeless.

[GraceRandolph]

1 minute ago, woohoo said:

Not really. Look at what they've already done and one more conservative on the court isn't gonna change the outcome of anything post 2024. They're playing semi-nice atm with some things but if Trump wins they're going all in. Now if it were closer like 5/4 I'd agree but the senate is lost for a 10-15 years anyway or maybe for good so what's the point of even trying? If a dem president can't get anything but a right of center judge at best it's essentially hopeless.

If we want to get the court re-aligned with our values in any way, shape or form we must start being strategic about the court. The Dems current plan on SCOTUS is just winning elections, but they must ask justices to be strategic about retirement. We CAN'T afford another RBG disaster.

[woohoo]

19 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

If we want to get the court re-aligned with our values in any way, shape or form we must start being strategic about the court. The Dems current plan on SCOTUS is just winning elections, but they must ask justices to be strategic about retirement. We CAN'T afford another RBG disaster.

Let's say she retires, Trump wins, Alito and Thomas dip, we're still 6-3 with 5 young conservative justices. There's no going back. This court is conservative for the next 30 years. Without the senate from here on out it is truly a lost cause. I guess I don't see urgency because I accepted the Supreme Court was gone in November 2016 and made complete peace with it after Kavanaugh was confirmed. Barrett didn't phase me I was numb by that point. Now with the senate gone for good basically this is as good as it's gonna get. No way Mitch's maga crazy replacement is confirming any justice under a democratic president. The best outcome we can hope for is Biden wins, we somehow someway keep the senate, Sotomayor retires and Thomas and alito retire or kick the bucket. 
 

 

****all of this assuming Trump doesn't just take complete power of all three branches in 2025, he learned from his mistakes the first go around***

Edited April 6 by woohoo

[VOSS]

 

[ClashAndBurn]

4 hours ago, VOSS said:

 

This is why the Dems will forever be locked out of judicial power. They encourage each other to stand strong against pressure so they can... further their individual legacies? Rather than doing what's right for the country??????

 

Liberals are beyond stupid for this. At this point, Sotomayor dropping dead from her diabetes in the first year of a second Trump term would honestly be what the Democratic Party deserves.

[woohoo]

On 4/7/2024 at 4:46 AM, ClashAndBurn said:

This is why the Dems will forever be locked out of judicial power. They encourage each other to stand strong against pressure so they can... further their individual legacies? Rather than doing what's right for the country??????

 

Liberals are beyond stupid for this. At this point, Sotomayor dropping dead from her diabetes in the first year of a second Trump term would honestly be what the Democratic Party deserves.

I don't really see the point in if she does or doesn't because after November the senate is gone for good. We're not getting it back. Like maybe come the mid 2030s but by then MAGA will rule so it's basically hopeless. 2016 sealed our fate for 50 years. 

[Antonini]

They should wait til after the election to see if they lose the senate or not.  If they do, retire and push a progressive Latina in her place during the lame

duck. 

Edited April 9 by Antonini

[ClashAndBurn]

32 minutes ago, Antonini said:

They should wait til after the election to see if they lose the senate or not.  If they do, retire and push a progressive Latina in her place during the lame

duck. 

You think an outgoing Manchin and Sinema would ever go for that?

 

1 hour ago, woohoo said:

I don't really see the point in if she does or doesn't because after November the senate is gone for good. We're not getting it back. Like maybe come the mid 2030s but by then MAGA will rule so it's basically hopeless. 2016 sealed our fate for 50 years. 

Thats kind of the point. Get a new justice that you know can survive through the 2030s. But Dems are pre-emptively throwing their only possible chance to keep the court from backsliding for over a decade. They should be playing defense instead of surrendering. But being politically smart is not in their DNA. If it were, the think pieces would have been ravaging RBG for her selfishness much more harshly in 2014.

[woohoo]

36 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said:

You think an outgoing Manchin and Sinema would ever go for that?

 

Thats kind of the point. Get a new justice that you know can survive through the 2030s. But Dems are pre-emptively throwing their only possible chance to keep the court from backsliding for over a decade. They should be playing defense instead of surrendering. But being politically smart is not in their DNA. If it were, the think pieces would have been ravaging RBG for her selfishness much more harshly in 2014.

Thats all true but if Trump wins this year the SC isn't gonna really matter anyway if he gets all the power in DC centralized to him. In all honesty as awful as Americans are now I see MAGA being the new standard for this country. Getting the senate back in the 2030s is me being hopeful but I'm not even so sure it'll happen then. I know for sure we won't see any progressive policies in our lifetimes. Gay marriage will be the last leap forward we see and even that isn't gonna survive until 2030. America is just awful I'd give anything to have the money to just abandon it altogether and watch it sink from elsewhere 

[Antonini]

20 hours ago, ClashAndBurn said:

You think an outgoing Manchin and Sinema would ever go for that?

 

What do they care they're out the door and the balance of the court isn't at stake. 

[ClashAndBurn]

15 minutes ago, Antonini said:

What do they care they're out the door and the balance of the court isn't at stake. 

Thats exactly the reason they might not. Manchin has said that he won't vote to confirm any appointments that don't have any Republican votes to support them, and Sinema doesn't have to care about anything because she's got her K-Street future all lined up.

[Antonini]

2 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said:

Thats exactly the reason they might not. Manchin has said that he won't vote to confirm any appointments that don't have any Republican votes to support them, and Sinema doesn't have to care about anything because she's got her K-Street future all lined up.

Sinema has voted for every single nomination save for Two and manchin might just get Collin's on board since she allegedly "always votes for the presidents SCOTUS choice" so we'll see! Neither you nor I can predict the future. Even without manchin it could still be 50/50 with a tie breaker in the lame duck.