album Beyoncé - 'COWBOY CARTER'

[Cbreezy]

12 minutes ago, ReneighIsHere said:

I found this preorders breakdown on twitter... we can't be sure about the initial stock but the numbers make sense to me. If accurate, she's already at 140K US preorders (which is the same amount Renaissance had before release); and since everything is still available the numbers will continue to increase during the tracking week (while everything was sold out for renaissance cause the stock was more limited) 

See, this is the ish I like! Data, numbers, and the perspective it informs rather than simplified "she's gonna sell huge because she's Beyonce".

 

I hope the totals are true, because it would give me a nice sigh of relief (as Chart Hive). 

 

Goes to show (and even a lesson to self), the vinyl sales number wasn't the be-all and end-all. Because a lot of the additional lifting is being done by the CD and merch packages. 

 

Like you said, 140k is already at the Rennie pure sales total and we know she will for sure outsream Rennie's launch because of her heightened streaming profile. 

 

I'm still operating on the side of caution and predicting something in the ballpark of 300k. But, because that was my base minimum, I will be elated with anything higher.

Edited March 25, 2024 by Cbreezy

[Crayzik]

Ready for the tracklist reveal

 

[Eóghan]

10 minutes ago, Cbreezy said:

Really intrigued about her retail plan for this. 

 

Obviously, the album will be sold on Amazon etc. But, in not knowing how much time is needed for a store to receive an album ahead of time and the fact it was early store delivery that caused the Rennie leak, I wonder if this will be an "almost Lemonade" scenario.

 

So, digital and streaming out of the gate, but the only physicals (on release day) being whatever was pre-ordered from her site. The physicals would effectively go-wide within the week (anytime from release day onwards), so as to still contribute to her first-week numbers?

 

Anyone who follows other big releases, how do the gworls manage to avoid leaks?

 

Surely there must be some kind of tried and true method to make it all work?

if she wants to avoid leaks and doesn't care about numbers then yeah the physicals will the stores 1 week or even 2 weeks after release

[ToraeGilt]

10 minutes ago, Eóghan said:

if she wants to avoid leaks and doesn't care about numbers then yeah the physicals will the stores 1 week or even 2 weeks after release

Was it the same for Ariana? Because she managed to avoid leaks 

[Hephaestus]

So, are wea actually expecting a tracklist today or naur?

 

[Cbreezy]

10 minutes ago, Eóghan said:

if she wants to avoid leaks and doesn't care about numbers then yeah the physicals will the stores 1 week or even 2 weeks after release

Can it not technically just be a few days later but still within the tracking week? 

 

Like, any intel on how the lead times work at retail? Because I (genuinely) don't get how/why it would need to be 1-2 weeks later :-S

[Last Boy on Earth]

At what time is it going to be released in Europe?

[Kristie Kuwa]

20 minutes ago, Hephaestus said:

So, are wea actually expecting a tracklist today or naur?

 

I would say chances are at 5% today, at 75% tomorrow (all major information and reveals were released on Tuesdays so far), and 20% that we dont get the tracklist before the album drop (or just very shortly before) lol

Edited March 25, 2024 by Kristie Kuwa

[ReneighIsHere]

31 minutes ago, Cbreezy said:

Really intrigued about her retail plan for this. 

 

Obviously, the album will be sold on Amazon etc. But, in not knowing how much time is needed for a store to receive an album ahead of time and the fact it was early store delivery that caused the Rennie leak, I wonder if this will be an "almost Lemonade" scenario.

 

So, digital and streaming out of the gate, but the only physicals (on release day) being whatever was pre-ordered from her site. The physicals would effectively go-wide within the week (anytime from release day onwards), so as to still contribute to her first-week numbers?

 

Anyone who follows other big releases, how do the gworls manage to avoid leaks?

 

Surely there must be some kind of tried and true method to make it all work?

When physicals are involved, leaks can always happen.. most artists prioritize their first week sales so they make sure every store has the album by the time it's released, even if it leaks only stans on twitter will listen to it so it doesn't really affect numbers (most taylor albums leaked the day before).. it's really a matter of luck, some ariana and nicki fans received the album early but since they were loyal fans they didn't leak it, but if it gets in the wrong hands.. 

[Kristie Kuwa]

1 minute ago, ReneighIsHere said:

When physicals are involved, leaks can always happen.. most artists prioritize their first week sales so they make sure every store has the album by the time it's released, even if it leaks only stans on twitter will listen to it so it doesn't really affect numbers (most taylor albums leaked the day before).. it's really a matter of luck, some ariana and nicki fans received the album early but since they were loyal fans they didn't leak it, but if it gets in the wrong hands.. 

I feel with Bey they always leak because Beys name just draws so much attention

 

Evidence: How all those major outlets like Variety reported the leak of Renaissance 

[Eóghan]

32 minutes ago, Cbreezy said:

Can it not technically just be a few days later but still within the tracking week? 

 

Like, any intel on how the lead times work at retail? Because I (genuinely) don't get how/why it would need to be 1-2 weeks later :-S

it's pure speculation at this point

i'm just estimating if Bey's team doesn't want the album to be in any retail stock a few days prior of the release to avoid any potential leaks, then the physical won't reach the shelves until a week later at the very least. but for all we know maybe the store have it in their storage as we speak and it will be a traditional release with no problems and her team don't care if it leaks.

 

32 minutes ago, ToraeGilt said:

Was it the same for Ariana? Because she managed to avoid leaks 

ariana was a traditional release like any other release, 98% of releases nowadays (even for big artists) have no leaks. the security when it comes to physical releases is 10x times better than 10 or 15 years ago when leaks were more prevalent. beyoncé is just very unlucky or has the worst fans/haters

[Kalmanta]

Wouldn't we have known by now if physicals were being shipped to major retailers? At least the 2nd week drop could be minimized that way. Renaissance dropped 73% to 89k units.

[Cbreezy]

11 minutes ago, ReneighIsHere said:

When physicals are involved, leaks can always happen.. most artists prioritize their first week sales so they make sure every store has the album by the time it's released, even if it leaks only stans on twitter will listen to it so it doesn't really affect numbers (most taylor albums leaked the day before).. it's really a matter of luck, some ariana and nicki fans received the album early but since they were loyal fans they didn't leak it, but if it gets in the wrong hands.. 

Gotcha!

 

With that, I hope it's more a case that Bey has left it to the last minute with retailers on purpose but that everything goes up for pre-order/listing early this week. 

 

A broad retail presence is promo/exposure in and of itself. So, it would make sense to be available everywhere ASAP. Because, like you said, physicals are always susceptible to leaks even when/if delivered from her store.  

[ReneighIsHere]

Also since all the physicals are labeled as "webstore exclusives" all the other retailers should get the standard CDs /Vinyls which she still hasn't dropped.. we'll see what her team has in plan

[Shelter]

Without it being on Amazon and in stores, I'm surprised people think it will do Renaissance numbers. 

[Kristie Kuwa]

3 minutes ago, Shelter said:

Without it being on Amazon and in stores, I'm surprised people think it will do Renaissance numbers. 

Who says its not going to be on Amazon?

[Bey'Knight]

37 minutes ago, Eóghan said:

beyoncé is just very unlucky or has the worst fans/haters

Haters spreading leaks is within their ammo. Coming from fans is rather disappointing and they did it so brazenly as well. 

[Cbreezy]

Just now, Kristie Kuwa said:

Who says its not going to be on Amazon?

I think they mean not up on Amazon in time for release? Anything could change between now and Friday, but just working with what we currently know now. 

 

5 minutes ago, Shelter said:

Without it being on Amazon and in stores, I'm surprised people think it will do Renaissance numbers. 

Check out the numbers breakdown above. I am being cautious in taking it as gospel, but the vinyl portion does tally with the sums @Lose My Breath has been reporting. So, an external source essentially echoing the same makes me inclined to believe it's true. 

 

140k in pure sales before release is on par with what Rennie did first week (with comparatively limited stock). The only other major contributors to that sum will be streaming units and I think we can rest in knowing she will do better than Rennie which IIRC did like 120k from streams first week. Add to that further sales from her store and a rough breakdown looks like:

 

140k: Official Store / Limited Edition presales so far 

145k (Estimate): Streaming Units 

10k-20k: Additional pre-sales assuming she uses her socials to push it more between now and Friday

 

Total: 305k-ish

 

That's without any other retailers like Amazon, Target, etc. 

 

So, I guess we're both technically right. It's not the Rennie 330k debut, but it's pretty much in the same ballpark.

 

Also of note is that I don't imagine her showing us the standard cover first and then not selling it. Be that on her site or externally before or upon release.

 

That said, there is a big part of me that will always be annoyed about the preorder thing, because she's trending towards an on-par performance with Rennie when it could **easily** have been way more. The fact it'll likely be a little under or a little over is grating. But it is what it is and 300k or thereabout is nothing to scoff at. Though the OCD in me will fume at anything annoying like 299k lol.

 

I'm also leaving room for a viral collab or moment from the album that will wipe the floor with the current streaming forecast. Because that could be the game-changer.

 

We'll see.

[Kalmanta]

24 minutes ago, Cbreezy said:

 

10k-20k: Additional pre-sales assuming she uses her socials to push it more between now and Friday

 

That would be laughable bad, we're getting closer and closer to the release and you expect a measly 20k additional presales. You also forget to factor in digital sales of the album, Renaissance did over 40k and I'm sure her webstore won't stop selling the vinyls/boxsets after Thursday to clear the remaining stock. If those presale numbers are really true, she isn't doing under 350k and I fail to imagine a scenario where she doesn't clear 400k. 

[Kern]

do we expect the tracklist tommorow?

[Cbreezy]

11 minutes ago, Kalmanta said:

That would be laughable bad, we're getting closer and closer to the release and you expect a measly 20k additional presales. You also forget to factor in digital sales of the album, Renaissance did over 40k and I'm sure her webstore won't stop selling the vinyls/boxsets after Thursday to clear the remaining stock. If those presale numbers are really true, she isn't doing under 350k and I fail to imagine a scenario where she doesn't clear 400k. 

Good point!

 

Though an arguably fading metric, some of the Hot 100 single chart battles have opened my eyes to the fact that digital sales definitely still come in handy for specific artists...Bey being one of them. Her having an older-leaning audience in general will help this a lot.

 

Even promotionally speaking, it's a wise area for the label to invest in terms of banner takeovers etc. It's all a bit 2013 tactically speaking, but also is a solid way of meeting your old school audience where they're at and running up the numbers.

[Uncatena]

wait we don't even know the amount of tracks on this, do we?

[Gladiator]

2 minutes ago, ChapelHooker said:

wait we don't even know the amount of tracks on this, do we?

not until it leaks 

[Kristie Kuwa]

If she's has a big hinter collab like Taylor or Adele on it, thats pretty much a guaranteed 10 Mio update for that song alone tbh

Add to that the Jolene song + THE repeaking. Phew, I dont want to get ahead of myself, but

 

[nuclear]

She needs to drop the trailer for the visuals along with the tracklist tomorrow.

 

did she ever promote vinyls and limited cd on her website?