base talk Predict “yes, and?” Spotify Debut

[ithinkheknowsoutsold]

8 million seems very reasonable.

 

She's big but it's been a while so any more than that would have to come from positive word-of-mouth owing to the song itself.

[Bonicap]

First day numbers are about hype and expectations, these "6M if it's bad, 12M if it's good" posts don't make any sense.

[Slate]

60k. I was told Ari is over and forgotten.

[Rider]

11,9 

[punisher]

vampire debuted with 12 million and that had a lot of hype so around that number 

[Into The Void]

My prediction is 8-9 m.  I'm not going to go overboard because these r do able.

[Azulito]

27 million 

[Into The Void]

2 hours ago, Carry My Heart said:

It dropped at the same time across the world, wasn't a local release. The official record is still held by Anti-Hero.

We heard u the first 8 times

[wantedyoutogrow]

around 10-11 million

[judasmonster]

10M+ is definitely possible especially if its catchy

[littlebodybigheart]

anything less than 12m is gonna be an underperformance for the queen of streaming

[dirrtydiana]

Omg I, shaking right now it just hit me positions was out 2020 

 

the time between 2020-2024 did NOT feel like it did in 2000-2004 

[KillingYourCareer]

8 million I would say but it's very unpredictable

[unclefloprry]

8-10M 

[1989]

9-10M

[Stuart]

8M-12M

[kendoll2001]

10M 

[Aston Martin]

I’m guessing 10 million with a 2 million +/- margin of error 

[TrieLz]

10-11M,

 

her number should be bigger than Vampire 

[Jpkun]

Interesting predictions all.. I don't think she is forgotten, but I think maybe you might be overhyping to expect it to debut above the TUN era. I went 6-7, in retrospect, maybe too conservative. But I think i'd bet under 8m definitely..

[Raspberries]

7-8M

[Wewee]

5M 

[Gerardo]

9-12 million 

Die For You was very hyped but wasn’t that liked and it did 8.9M, worst case it does these same numbers 

[Aristocrat]

For comparison, here is the current ranking of her biggest global Spotify debuts:

 

#1. “Die For You (Remix)” — 8,931,107
#2. “7 rings” — 8,554,577
#3. “positions” — 7,625,423
#4. “break up with your girlfriend” — 7,599,830
#5. “Rain On Me” — 6,742,704
 

Edited January 11, 2024 by Aristocrat

[Junipero]

If the song is bad, it might have the same near numbers as "positions” — 7,625,423.
If the song is good around “break up with your girlfriend” — 7,599,830, and  “7 rings” — 8,554,577.

 

Perhaps in the 9 million debut range, assuming Spotify has grown its subscriber base in the past years.

Edited January 11, 2024 by Junipero