fridayteenage Posted Friday at 11:14 PM Posted Friday at 11:14 PM 46 minutes ago, hausofdave said: Rosselini has like five lines, showed up in three scenes, and getting nominated everywhere. basically locked atp per screentimecentral: Isabella Rossellini - 8:16 / 6.86% would be longer than at least 10 previous supporting actress nominees both by time and percentage. for this century, under-10s for both: Laura Dern (Wild) - 9:36 / 8.32% Ruby Dee (American Gangster) - 6:10 / 3.93% Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) - 8:03 / 5.34% Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) - 8:45 / 6.45% Sam Rockwell (Vice) - 9:51 / 7.44% Alan Arkin (Argo) - 8:39 / 7.19% Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) - 9:02 / 7.60% Mark Wahlberg (The Departed) - 9:21 / 6.19% William Hurt (A History of Violence) - 8:22 / 8.75% notably more common for men.
Tm4074 Posted Friday at 11:23 PM Posted Friday at 11:23 PM 7 hours ago, Renem said: At this point I won't be shocked if she does, but I believe they should judge her based on her work and not personal drama. Hopefully she still manages that nom, but whatever I guess. She's not missing and her personal drama won't affect her getting a nomination. This is Hollywood, they don't gaf about cheating bc they all have done it or are doing it lol. This is also the same Academy that gave Marriage Story 6 nominations. 2 2
Green Posted Friday at 11:25 PM Posted Friday at 11:25 PM 3 hours ago, Almodusa said: Sample was used Mess Can they give that spot to Miley's song instead? Imagine if that song was next in line to get in the shortlist 1
Almodusa Posted yesterday at 12:37 AM Author Posted yesterday at 12:37 AM 1 hour ago, Green said: Mess Can they give that spot to Miley's song instead? Imagine if that song was next in line to get in the shortlist They won't be replacing it, so music voters have 14 choices now
Hector Posted yesterday at 12:55 AM Posted yesterday at 12:55 AM 1 hour ago, fridayteenage said: per screentimecentral: Isabella Rossellini - 8:16 / 6.86% would be longer than at least 10 previous supporting actress nominees both by time and percentage. for this century, under-10s for both: Laura Dern (Wild) - 9:36 / 8.32% Ruby Dee (American Gangster) - 6:10 / 3.93% Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) - 8:03 / 5.34% Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) - 8:45 / 6.45% Sam Rockwell (Vice) - 9:51 / 7.44% Alan Arkin (Argo) - 8:39 / 7.19% Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) - 9:02 / 7.60% Mark Wahlberg (The Departed) - 9:21 / 6.19% William Hurt (A History of Violence) - 8:22 / 8.75% notably more common for men. Which is why a majority of these were surprise nominations at the time.
Aiya Posted yesterday at 06:55 AM Posted yesterday at 06:55 AM 7 hours ago, Tm4074 said: She's not missing and her personal drama won't affect her getting a nomination. This is Hollywood, they don't gaf about cheating bc they all have done it or are doing it lol. This is also the same Academy that gave Marriage Story 6 nominations. Are you so sure about her tho? I have doubts.
hausofdave Posted yesterday at 03:40 PM Posted yesterday at 03:40 PM BA lone noms (2010-23) - Stewart - De Armas - Riseborough - Kirby - Day - Negga - Huppert - Lawrence (Joy) - Pike - Moore *won* - Cotillard - Williams - Watts - Kidman
fridayteenage Posted yesterday at 04:03 PM Posted yesterday at 04:03 PM Timothee could be the first 90s born with two male lead noms. Lawrence and Ronan have not only two, but three, for leading lady stars. Nicole could tie Penn/Blanchett for most lead noms for a 60s born performer (five). Kate could go back to tying DiCaprio for most lead noms for a 70s born performer (also five).
Tm4074 Posted 23 hours ago Posted 23 hours ago 10 hours ago, Aiya said: Are you so sure about her tho? I have doubts. I mean what indicators are there she's missing atp? Wicked is getting in BP and is the frontrunner to win Production Design + Costumes. Wicked also made every single Academy shortlist it was eligible for including Original Score which was one nomination people were questioning since it's an adaptation of a Broadway musical, yet it made the shortlist anyway thus indicating the movie has support within the industry. She got in both precursors so far (GG + CCA) and is leading the regional critic wins and has 20 nominations so far. Wicked is a huge hit commercially and Universal is heavily campaigning the movie + Ariana/Cynthia. Pretty much every pundit has Ariana in top 2 in the SA race right now with Saldaña. The Academy loves Broadway adaptations considering they even showered the 2012 adaptation of Les Mis (also by Universal) with nominations when that movie literally has a 57% rotten score among top critics and low 60s on Metacritic. It ended up with a package of nominations including BP + Best Actor + Best Supporting Actress (WIN) + Costume Design + Make-Up/Hairstyling (WIN) + Sound Mixing (WIN) + Original Song + Production Design. I expect a similar nomination haul with Wicked (BP + 2 acting nominations + a few techs). Not to mention Wicked is a much better received movie critically and with audiences. 1
Aiya Posted 23 hours ago Posted 23 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Tm4074 said: I mean what indicators are there she's missing atp? Wicked is getting in BP and is the frontrunner to win Production Design + Costumes. Wicked also made every single Academy shortlist it was eligible for including Original Score which was one nomination people were questioning since it's an adaptation of a Broadway musical, yet it made the shortlist anyway thus indicating the movie has support within the industry. She got in both precursors so far (GG + CCA) and is leading the regional critic wins and has 20 nominations so far. Wicked is a huge hit commercially and Universal is heavily campaigning the movie + Ariana/Cynthia. Pretty much every pundit has Ariana in top 2 in the SA race right now with Saldaña. The Academy loves Broadway adaptations considering they even showered the 2012 adaptation of Les Mis (also by Universal) with nominations when that movie literally has a 57% rotten score among top critics and low 60s on Metacritic. It ended up with a package of nominations including BP + Best Actor + Best Supporting Actress (WIN) + Costume Design + Make-Up/Hairstyling (WIN) + Sound Mixing (WIN) + Original Song + Production Design. I expect a similar nomination haul with Wicked (BP + 2 acting nominations + a few techs). Not to mention Wicked is a much better received movie critically and with audiences. You're right, but after last year's Margot saturation, you can never be too sure. If I remember correctly, she managed to get nominations everywhere except the Oscars. and even when you're a strong contender, nothing is guaranteed.
Tm4074 Posted 23 hours ago Posted 23 hours ago (edited) 1 hour ago, Aiya said: You're right, but after last year's Margot saturation, you can never be too sure. If I remember correctly, she managed to get nominations everywhere except the Oscars. and even when you're a strong contender, nothing is guaranteed. Margot was competing in Lead Actress, not Supporting Actress and it was a strong year for Lead Actress. However both supporting performers in Barbie, America Ferrera and Ryan Gosling got in. America also missed all precursors except CCA and still made it in at the Oscars. Barbie is an original fantasy-comedy movie while Wicked is a fantasy-musical adaptation of the second biggest Broadway musicals of all-time. They really aren't similar outside of being populist female led blockbusters with a primarily female audience. Supporting Actress is a category known to reward musical performances - Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls, Catherine Zeta-Jones in Chicago, Ariana DeBose in West Side Story, and Anne Hathaway in Les Mis. All performances in Broadway musical adaptations and all happened post the year 2000 so we aren't going back far with that stat at all. If we are comparing Margot/Cynthia I guess there are some parallels but Cynthia has way more to do in Wicked and has a big moment like Defying Gravity. Margot didn't have a comparable moment. Wicked on both stage and screen is highlighted for its performances as well. Elphaba in Wicked is a Tony winning role and Glinda is a Tony nominated role. It has prestige behind it. The connection to The Wizard of Oz, arguably the most iconic and beloved Hollywood film of all-time helps (1939 Wizard of Oz was nominated for BP). Wicked has way more going for it. Barbie had to breakdown more barriers to be taken seriously, imo. Nothing is guaranteed until nomination morning of course, but with the evidence we do have Wicked has a lot going for it and we have historical data that supports it doing well with the Oscars for nominations. Wins is a different discussion. Edited 21 hours ago by Tm4074 1
kimberly Posted 22 hours ago Posted 22 hours ago 1 hour ago, Tm4074 said: The Academy loves Broadway adaptations considering they even showered the 2012 adaptation of Les Mis (also by Universal) with nominations when that movie literally has a 57% rotten score among top critics and low 60s on Metacritic. It ended up with a package of nominations including BP + Best Actor + Best Supporting Actress (WIN) + Costume Design + Make-Up/Hairstyling (WIN) + Sound Mixing (WIN) + Original Song + Production Design. I expect a similar nomination haul with Wicked (BP + 2 acting nominations + a few techs). Not to mention Wicked is a much better received movie critically and with audiences. I see Wicked landing nominations in these categories, with bolded being near-locks: BP Lead Actress Supporting Actress Production Design Costume Design Hair & Makeup Sound Original Score Screenplay Visual Effects If this holds up, and Wicked gets the 7 bolded nominations, it would be exactly falling 1 short of Les Mis, which additionally got an Original Song nod. 2
Kylizzle Posted 22 hours ago Posted 22 hours ago 24 minutes ago, kimberly said: I see Wicked landing nominations in these categories, with bolded being near-locks: BP Lead Actress Supporting Actress Production Design Costume Design Hair & Makeup Sound Original Score Screenplay Visual Effects If this holds up, and Wicked gets the 7 bolded nominations, it would be exactly falling 1 short of Les Mis, which additionally got an Original Song nod. Lead Actress is def not a near-lock mama 2
Hector Posted 18 hours ago Posted 18 hours ago Philadelphia Film Critics Circle Winners: Best Film: ANORA (runner-up: THE BRUTALIST) Best Director: Sean Baker for ANORA (runner-up: RaMell Ross for NICKEL BOYS) Best Actress: Mikey Madison for ANORA (runner-up: Demi Moore for THE SUBSTANCE) Best Actor: Adrien Brody for THE BRUTALIST (runner-up: Hugh Grant for HERETIC) Best Supporting Actress: Margaret Qualley for THE SUBSTANCE (runner-up: Aubrey Plaza for MEGALOPOLIS) Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin for A REAL PAIN (runner-up: Guy Pearce for THE BRUTALIST) Best Script: ANORA (runner-up: NICKEL BOYS) Best Soundtrack/Score: THE BRUTALIST (runner-up: DUNE PART TWO) Best Directorial Debut: Vera Drew for THE PEOPLE'S JOKER (runner-up: India Donaldson for GOOD ONE) Best Breakthrough Performance: Mikey Madison for ANORA (runner-up: Yura Borisov for ANORA) Best Ensemble: ANORA (runner-up: CONCLAVE) Best Cinematography: NOSFERATU (runner-up: THE BRUTALIST) Best Animated Film: MEMOIR OF A SNAIL (runner-up: FLOW) Best Foreign Language Film: ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT. (runner-up: THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG) Best Documentary Film: SUPER/MAN: THE CHRISTOPHER REEVE STORY (runner-up: WILL & HARPER) The Elaine May Award, (for a deserving person or film that brings awareness to a story from a woman's perspective): THE SUBSTANCE The Cheesesteak Award (sponsored by Philips Steaks): THE FALL GUY (runner-up : THE BEEKEEPER) North Carolina Film Critics Association Nominations: Spoiler BEST NARRATIVE FILM Anora The Brutalist Challengers Civil War Conclave Dune: Part Two I Saw the TV Glow Nickel Boys Nosferatu The Substance BEST DIRECTOR Brady Corbet, The Brutalist Coralie Fargeat, The Substance Luca Guadagnino, Challengers RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two BEST ACTOR Adrien Brody, The Brutalist Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown Daniel Craig, Queer Colman Domingo, Sing Sing Ralph Fiennes, Conclave BEST ACTRESS Cynthia Erivo, Wicked Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths Mikey Madison, Anora Demi Moore, The Substance Zendaya, Challengers BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Yura Borisov, Anora Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain Chris Hemsworth, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing Denzel Washington, Gladiator II BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys Ariana Grande-Butera, Wicked Felicity Jones, The Brutalist Katy O'Brian, Love Lies Bleeding Margaret Qualley, The Substance Isabella Rossellini, Conclave BEST VOCAL PERFORMANCE IN ANIMATION OR MIXED MEDIA Kevin Durand, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Lupita Nyong'o, The Wild Robot Maya Hawke, Inside Out 2 Pedro Pascal, The Wild Robot Sarah Snook, Memoir of a Snail BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE Conclave Dune: Part Two Saturday Night Sing Sing Wicked BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY A Different Man Anora The Brutalist Challengers The Substance BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Conclave Dune: Part Two Nickel Boys Nosferatu Sing Sing BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Challengers Dune: Part 2 Nickel Boys Nosferatu The Brutalist BEST EDITING Anora Challengers Conclave Dune: Part Two Nickel Boys BEST COSTUME DESIGN Conclave Dune: Part Two Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Nosferatu Wicked HAIR AND MAKEUP A Different Man Dune: Part Two Nosferatu The Substance Wicked BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN The Brutalist Dune: Part Two Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Nosferatu Wicked BEST SCORE The Brutalist Challengers Conclave Nosferatu The Wild Robot BEST ORIGINAL SONG "Compress/Repress," Challengers "El Mal," Emilia Pérez "Harper and Will Go West," Will & Harper "Kiss the Sky," The Wild Robot "Like a Bird," Sing Sing BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM All We Imagine As Light Emilia Pérez Evil Does Not Exist I'm Still Here The Seed of the Sacred Fig LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT: Cinematography Roger Deakins Christopher Doyle Greig Fraser Emmanuel Lubezki Hoyte van Hoytema KEN HANKE MEMORIAL TAR HEEL AWARD Stephen McKinley Henderson, Civil War Jeff Nichols, Director, The Bikeriders Margaret Qualley, The Substance Hunter Schafer, Cuckoo Drew Starkey, Queer Utah Film Critics Association Nominations: Spoiler Best Picture The Brutalist Conclave Dune: Part Two The Substance Tuesday The Wild Robot Best Achievement in Direction Brady Corbet, The Brutalist Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two Edward Berger, Conclave Sean Baker, Anora Tim Fehlbaum, September 5 Best Lead Performance, Male Adrien Brody, The Brutalist Colman Domingo, Sing Sing Daniel Craig, Queer Ralph Fiennes, Conclave Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown Best Lead Performance, Female Cynthia Erivo, Wicked Demi Moore, The Substance Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Tuesday Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths Mikey Madison, Anora Best Supporting Performance, Male Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown Guy Pearce, The Brutalist Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain Stanley Tucci, Conclave Best Supporting Performance, Female Ariana Grande, Wicked Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson Felicity Jones, The Brutalist Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez Best Ensemble Cast Conclave His Three Daughters September 5 Sing Sing Wicked Vice/Martin Award for Performance in a Science-Fiction, Fantasy, or Horror Film Bill Skarsgård, Nosferatu David Jonsson, Alien: Romulus Demi Moore, The Substance Hugh Grant, Heretic Lily-Rose Depp, Nosferatu Best Screenplay The Brutalist His Three Daughters A Real Pain September 5 Tuesday Best Cinematography Greig Fraser, Dune: Part Two Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu Jomo Fray, Nickel Boys Lol Crawley, The Brutalist Stéphane Fontaine, Conclave Best Original Score Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist Hans Zimmer, Dune: Part Two Kris Bowers, The Wild Robot Robin Carolan, Nosferatu Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Challengers Best Film Editing The Brutalist Dune: Part Two Nickel Boys September 5 The Substance Best Visual Effects Better Man Dune: Part Two Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Nosferatu The Substance Best Documentary Feature The Remarkable Life of Ibelin Skywalkers: A Love Story Sugarcane Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story Will & Harper Best Animated Feature Flow Inside Out 2 Memoir of a Snail Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl The Wild Robot Best Non-English Feature All We Imagine as Light Emilia Pérez Flow I'm Still Here Red Rooms
Donquizote Posted 18 hours ago Posted 18 hours ago I really want Erivo to get nominated for her second lead actress, but I can foresee the situation where she gets snubbed like Robbie last year.
Tm4074 Posted 17 hours ago Posted 17 hours ago Cynthia is not locked by any means but I have difficulty seeing them nominating Ariana and not Cynthia when Wicked is carried by the both of them. Again, Margot in Barbie didn't have a standout moment so the nominations for that movie went to the performers that did. Ryan Gosling with "I'm Just Ken" and America Ferrera with her monologue scene. Cynthia has a few standout moments including the big finale with Defying Gravity which makes me believe the comparisons to Margot in Barbie are a little surface level and are missing key differences between the performances. 1
kimberly Posted 16 hours ago Posted 16 hours ago 5 hours ago, Kylizzle said: Lead Actress is def not a near-lock mama I personally think she is. It's definitely the least certain of the "near-locks" I noted down, but I don't see why they would pass on her performance when it was phenomenal AND she has the EGOT narrative (she's only missing an Oscar win). I just don't see the Barbie correlation folks can't seem to shake off. That was a worse movie, original screenplay, shaky performances from all the main actors... Cynthia is easily getting into BAFTA and SAG, and she's already in Golden Globes and Critics' Choice. She's been awarded for her musical theater performance before by the TONYS, Grammys and Emmys. Call me crazy but I think she's got this! 1
Kylizzle Posted 15 hours ago Posted 15 hours ago 14 minutes ago, kimberly said: I personally think she is. It's definitely the least certain of the "near-locks" I noted down, but I don't see why they would pass on her performance when it was phenomenal AND she has the EGOT narrative (she's only missing an Oscar win). I just don't see the Barbie correlation folks can't seem to shake off. That was a worse movie, original screenplay, shaky performances from all the main actors... Cynthia is easily getting into BAFTA and SAG, and she's already in Golden Globes and Critics' Choice. She's been awarded for her musical theater performance before by the TONYS, Grammys and Emmys. Call me crazy but I think she's got this! I think it's very possible she's just probably 6th or 7th in line imo Madison Gascon Jolie Moore Jean-Baptiste Kidman Erivo Torres Winslet OUT: Ronan, Adams 1
kimberly Posted 15 hours ago Posted 15 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Kylizzle said: I think it's very possible she's just probably 6th or 7th in line imo Madison Gascon Jolie Moore Jean-Baptiste Kidman Erivo Torres Winslet OUT: Ronan, Adams I don't flat out disagree with this assessment but #3-#7 are all very close and could go either way, truly. I'm taking a chance on Erivo coming out in the #3-5 range. Finally saw a trailer for Hard Truths at the movie theater today. MJB has me excited for her performance. 1
EnigmaticAndroid Posted 15 hours ago Posted 15 hours ago For what it's worth, I see Ariana and Cynthia as a package deal. They either get in together or they miss together. And if they miss, it's either a massive surprise on nom morning or Wicked starts collapsing soon. 1
Donquizote Posted 15 hours ago Posted 15 hours ago Will AMPAS members see this performance and say "Nope, I'm not voting for her"?
kimberly Posted 14 hours ago Posted 14 hours ago 15 minutes ago, EnigmaticAndroid said: For what it's worth, I see Ariana and Cynthia as a package deal. They either get in together or they miss together. And if they miss, it's either a massive surprise on nom morning or Wicked starts collapsing soon. that's the other half of my thinking. Ariana seems so locked that Cynthia not getting in seems unlikely to me. I hope I'm not terribly wrong and it's still early days, but Wicked dominating culture for over a month in this particular moment feels great for their chances. 1
Kylizzle Posted 14 hours ago Posted 14 hours ago 32 minutes ago, EnigmaticAndroid said: For what it's worth, I see Ariana and Cynthia as a package deal. They either get in together or they miss together. And if they miss, it's either a massive surprise on nom morning or Wicked starts collapsing soon. Ken getting in solo says hi Ariana is running at the front of the pack for Supporting (so far) while Cynthia is fighting for the #5 spot, it seems belivable to me
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