KasioKas Posted February 17 Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, Green said: The way Karla Gascon has been erased from this Oscar season. It's almost like she had a cameo in Emilia Perez and no one remembers her anymore I completely forgot she was missing from that video 1
kimberly Posted February 17 Posted February 17 49 minutes ago, fridayteenage said: industry awards have bearing in the wins, as an industry award yes and no. it's merely a "suggestion" for Oscar voters to consider PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG winners, but not a guarantee at all. branch-led nominations are where you can see a more direct causal relationship between the two. winners? if it were as easy as that, there would be no need for AMPAS to be its own entity. 1
kimberly Posted February 17 Posted February 17 I'm not saying every "stat" will be broken this year by the way, but just reminding that these stats exist until they suddenly do not. not to mention most "stats" already have outliers. we don't know if this year's awards will align with the stats and odds or not until the moment the envelope is opened on stage.
ultraviolence.xx Posted February 18 Posted February 18 the more i listen to mikey's interviews, the more i am rooting for her (and i already was). the sheer difference between ani's personality and her own, the way she learned the brighton beach accent, learned (some) russian, learned how to work a pole, did all her own stunts, improvised everything in the lap dance scene at the beginning... not only is she fantastic in the film, but sis worked her ass off! 8
KylieistBoi Posted February 18 Posted February 18 6 hours ago, Green said: The way Karla Gascon has been erased from this Oscar season. It's almost like she had a cameo in Emilia Perez and no one remembers her anymore Should've been like this from the beginning. I loved Emilia Perez when I first watched it but I thought KSG didn't warrant a nomination in either category. They should've campaigned Zoe in Lead Actress, where she belongs. It probably would've made harder for her to sweep but she would've been a top 3 contender for sure. 5 1
ATRL Moderator supaspaz Posted February 18 ATRL Moderator Posted February 18 9 hours ago, Donquizote said: EP is such a mess. I wont be surprised if it won BP since AMPAS love controversy Not with the ranked-choice voting. There's too much consensus picks that will finish ahead of it. 1
Green Posted February 18 Posted February 18 Today I'll watch Anora ATRL has me hyped Let's see if it's that great 1
Green Posted February 18 Posted February 18 By the way last week I saw Hard Truths. I almost fell asleep at first, because the film was so slow But Marianne Jean-Baptiste's annoying rants against everyone kept me awake She deserved an Oscar nomination for sure, that escene during Mother's day celebration at her sister's house 1
Hector Posted February 18 Posted February 18 Black Reel Award Winners: Spoiler OUTSTANDING FILM Nickel Boys Joslyn Barnes, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner & David Levin, producers OUTSTANDING LEAD PERFORMANCE Marianne Jean-Baptiste Hard Truths OUTSTANDING DIRECTOR RaMell Ross Nickel Boys OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE Danielle Deadwyler The Piano Lesson OUTSTANDING SCREENPLAY Nickel Boys RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes OUTSTANDING DOCUMENTARY Luther: Never Too Much Dawn Porter, director OUTSTANDING INTERNATIONAL FILM Hard Truths United Kingdom OUTSTANDING ENSEMBLE The Piano Lesson Lindsay Graham & Mary Vernieu, casting directors OUTSTANDING VOICE PERFORMANCE Lupita Nyong'o The Wild Robot OUTSTANDING INDEPENDENT FILM We Grown Now Minhal Baig, director OUTSTANDING SHORT FILM Chocolate With Sprinkles Huriyyah Muhammad, director OUTSTANDING SCORE The Wild Robot Kris Bowers, composer OUTSTANDING ORIGINAL SONG "The Journey" from The Six Triple Eight H.E.R., performer; Diane Warren, writer OUTSTANDING SOUNDTRACK Wicked OUTSTANDING EMERGING DIRECTOR RaMell Ross Nickel Boys OUTSTANDING BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE Clarence Maclin Sing Sing OUTSTANDING FIRST SCREENPLAY Nickel Boys RaMell Ross OUTSTANDING CINEMATOGRAPHY Nickel Boys Jomo Fray, cinematographer OUTSTANDING COSTUME DESIGN Wicked Paul Tazewell, costume designer OUTSTANDING EDITING We Grown Now Stephanie Filo, editor OUTSTANDING HAIRSTYLING & MAKEUP The Piano Lesson Andrea 'Mona' Bowman & Para Shardé Malden OUTSTANDING PRODUCTION DESIGN The Piano Lesson David J. Bomba (production designer), Chardae Adams (art director) & Patrick Cassidy (set decorator) 2
McNulty Posted February 18 Posted February 18 Zoe has a trans nephew, Corbet being too broke and Guy Pearce saying Spacey harassed him. These campaigns are getting crazy at the final voting days 5
fridayteenage Posted February 18 Posted February 18 I felt extra confident in stone when DiCaprio was ignored by actors for once I feel confident in Madison partially due to qualleys many industry snubs as the co lead
Green Posted February 18 Posted February 18 1 hour ago, McNulty said: Zoe has a trans nephew, Corbet being too broke and Guy Pearce saying Spacey harassed him. These campaigns are getting crazy at the final voting days I just read that Pearce also saying that Simon Baker was harassed by Spacey too during that film and that he felt safe when Spacey was harassing Simon Baker instead Quote Pearce, who admitted to brushing off Spacey's alleged advances back then, said he was "scared" of the veteran actor to a certain extent. "I did that for five months, and really I was sort of scared of Kevin because he's quite an aggressive man," said Pearce, who played police officer Ed Exley in the movie. "He's extremely charming and brilliant at what he does – really impressive, etc. He holds a room remarkably. But I was young and susceptible, and he targeted me, no question." "The only days I feel safe are the days when [Simon Baker] is on set because I'm dumped like a hot potato, and [Kevin] focuses on [Simon] because he was 10 times prettier than I am," he added. 1
ATRL Moderator supaspaz Posted February 18 ATRL Moderator Posted February 18 2 hours ago, McNulty said: Zoe has a trans nephew, Corbet being too broke and Guy Pearce saying Spacey harassed him. These campaigns are getting crazy at the final voting days Nobody is safe from podcast mouth 2
kimberly Posted February 18 Posted February 18 2 hours ago, McNulty said: Zoe has a trans nephew, Corbet being too broke and Guy Pearce saying Spacey harassed him. These campaigns are getting crazy at the final voting days time for Demi Moore to give a heart-wrenching interview about her botched face from a couple years ago
fridayteenage Posted February 18 Posted February 18 So far this decade we have Globe loser mcdormand who won the Oscar Globe loser chastain who won the Oscar This century globe hasn't been instrumental in any lead actress win
kimberly Posted February 18 Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, fridayteenage said: So far this decade we have Globe loser mcdormand who won the Oscar Globe loser chastain who won the Oscar This century globe hasn't been instrumental in any lead actress win Same goes for BAFTA this decade. BAFTA loser Chastain won the Oscar. (2022) BAFTA loser Yeoh won the Oscar. (2023) and SAG this decade: SAG loser McDormand won the Oscar. (2021) SAG loser Stone won the Oscar. (2024) none of these is more "instrumental" than the other because none of them are the AMPAS membership or even have any significant overlap. 1
hausofdave Posted February 18 Posted February 18 I think this is how it plays out: If Demi wins SAG, I give her the edge but it could go either way between her and Madison at the Oscars. No significant chance for a Fernanda win. If Mikey wins SAG, it's a done deal for her. No significant chance for a Fernanda win. If Erivo, Gascon, or Anderson somehow manage to win SAG (highly unlikely), Demi is out and that would also signal that Mikey is a weak front runner despite her current momentum. I'd still predict Mikey but this would be Fernanda's best chance at spoiling at the Oscars. Karla and Cynthia are not winning the Oscar even if they managed to pull off SAG. 1 2
Donquizote Posted February 18 Posted February 18 Madison is winning methinks. Anora has huge support from PGA/DGA/WGA and she won BAFTA, the least likely award for her to win. If Demi won SAG, I think Madison still wins at the end.
Donquizote Posted February 18 Posted February 18 BAFTA winner + TRIFECTA critic win and runner up in a BP frontrunner movie is hard to ignore. Madison also almost won all regional critic awards.
hausofdave Posted February 19 Posted February 19 first batch of ballots out Picture: Anora (1), Brutalist (1) , Nicki Boys (1), Complete Unknown (1), Dune Part Two (1) Director: Baker (2), Corbet (1), Mangold (1), Auidard (1) Actor: Brody (3), Fiennes (1), Domingo (1) Actress: Moore (2), Torres (2), Madison (1) S Actor: Culkin (3), Strong (1), Norton (1) S Actress: Rossellini (2), Barbaro (2), Jones (1) 2
Green Posted February 19 Posted February 19 33 minutes ago, hausofdave said: first batch of ballots out Picture: Anora (1), Brutalist (1) , Nicki Boys (1), Complete Unknown (1), Dune Part Two (1) Director: Baker (2), Corbet (1), Mangold (1), Auidard (1) Actor: Brody (3), Fiennes (1), Domingo (1) Actress: Moore (2), Torres (2), Madison (1) S Actor: Culkin (3), Strong (1), Norton (1) S Actress: Rossellini (2), Barbaro (2), Jones (1) Torres So random that neither Zoe nor Ariana (the top 2 of Supporing Actress) didn't get any votes there
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