awards show 2024-2025 Awards Season | SAG nominations out!

[EnigmaticAndroid]

Also, just a reminder that films can overperform at SAG and flop in wins. A Star is Born, Barbie, Bombshell, Banshees, and House of Gucci all did and blanked. Momentum, narratives, and social consciousness tend to matter most for them. 

[Tm4074]

3 hours ago, GoodGuyGoneGhetto said:

Respectfully, is Ariana Grande receiving 'Best Supporting…' nominations due to the success of WICKED?

 

Historically, musicals have always been awards bait (especially at the Oscars), but why do I get the feeling the actors in the film (except for Cynthia Erivo whose performance was actually noteworthy) are being nominated due to how big the film is and not necessarily because of the performances?

 

I love Grande but her receiving these acting nominations are so confusing and hilarious to me. 

Well, you're in the minority with this opinion and most disagree. Ariana is getting nominations because both she and Cynthia have been receiving praise for their performances and most consider those two as Wicked's biggest strength. Even those who didn't like the movie praise both of their performances. Ariana winning and getting nominated everywhere with regional critics awards for a populist movie shows there is passion/support behind her performance because critics aren't groups that would favor populist movies. Ariana is actually leading in her category with the most nominations and second in wins, just 1 win behind Qualley. 

 

 

[DanyelP23]

Fargeat missing director. Typical DGA.

Not gonna happen but I wish Audiard and Mangold would get replaced by Fargeat and Villeneuve at the Oscars and call it a day.

 

Anora getting in Ensemble and Baker solidifying himself in Director bodes well for Madison.

I'm curious if the Critics Choice will try to get on the Demi hype narrative train or if they'll go their own way with either Mikey or Jean-Baptiste.

Whoever wins SAG won't have the advantage of making a speech to push themselves towards a win, since SAG is taking place on the 18th, same day as the voting for the Oscar winners. BAFTA winners are announced on 16th, so a small push via speech might help the winner here.

 

Critics Choice has also been delayed due to the LA Wildfires. I am not american or familiar with the gravity of the situation, but I assume (?) they will not be delayed for more than a month.

 

I feel like if someone other than Demi wins both SAG and BAFTA, that person will take the Oscar as well, if these 2 split between Madison and Moore, I'm leaning towards Moore, UNLESS The Substance has a poor showing at the Oscars. 

[Lovett]

 

[Alyssa Edwards]

32 minutes ago, Dark Miracles said:

 (though he should've honestly won for CMBYN)

Literally never.

He was a lovely first runner-up tho.

 

[EnigmaticAndroid]

4 hours ago, GoodGuyGoneGhetto said:

Respectfully, is Ariana Grande receiving 'Best Supporting…' nominations due to the success of WICKED?

 

Historically, musicals have always been awards bait (especially at the Oscars), but why do I get the feeling the actors in the film (except for Cynthia Erivo whose performance was actually noteworthy) are being nominated due to how big the film is and not necessarily because of the performances?

 

I love Grande but her receiving these acting nominations are so confusing and hilarious to me. 

Sorry, but this one of the exact (of many) arguments stans used against Gaga getting for ASIB. 

 

Trust and believe, these voters vote for what they genuinely like. They are not voting for performances they don't care about just for the sake of it or because they're being forced to. 

[Alyssa Edwards]

I can't for the life of me imagine Anora getting enough passion to win best picture (but then again i still can't believe Oppenheimer won last year)

 

Is it a battle between Wicked And Emilia Pérez ?

Or were actors just too lazy to watch The Brutalist ?

Also i feel like Margaret Qualley still gets in, The Substance has a lot of fans.

[Donquizote]

CC is just going to pick whoever nominated for Oscar as winner lol. 

[Alyssa Edwards]

5 minutes ago, EnigmaticAndroid said:

Trust and believe, these voters vote for what they genuinely like. They are not voting for performances they don't care about just for the sake of it or because they're being forced to. 

[Donquizote]

Aside from good performance, Oscar also tend to nominate pop star with real talent. They are snobbish and wont simply nominate any pop star. 

This is why I think Selena will have hard time to get nominate and JLo got snubbed

[fridayteenage]

45 minutes ago, Blue Monday said:

It's crazy to think about Angelina starting the season out as THEE contender in Actress, only to lose steam
 

For ppl who wanted to ignore larrains win record and how maria had notably worse reviews for a film about someone unknown to most Americans...

 

Timothee really might do it, it's been decades since a singer bio got in both sag ensemble and dga

[EnigmaticAndroid]

Just now, Alyssa Edwards said:

Riseburglar had a ton of industry goodwill, Viola had no real passion, Till was underseen, and To Leslie is actor's catnip. They wanted to do it. 

[Hector]

Fernanda Torres up to #5 on Gold Derby's Best Actress predictions list, definitely the Isabelle Huppert of the year. 

Edited 18 hours ago by Hector

[Dark Miracles]

How the **** is Javier Bardem nominated instead of Cooper Koch this makes literally zero sense

[Blue Monday]

6 minutes ago, fridayteenage said:

For ppl who wanted to ignore larrains win record and how maria had notably worse reviews for a film about someone unknown to most Americans...

 

Timothee really might do it, it's been decades since a singer bio got in both sag ensemble and dga

Angelina Jolie is Angelina Jolie though, and we just watched Brendan Fraser ride a comeback narrative all the way to an Oscar win despite a pretty awful film, so it was still within the realm of possibility. What's shocking to me is just how fast she fizzled out though, it wasn't even really a slow burn. 

 

Despite losing at the Globes I'm still thinking Timothée is the one to beat in Actor. I still haven't seen The Brutalist, but it just feels like the stars are aligning for Timothée in a way that usually results in a win. He's had several consecutive box office smashes AND his awards contender is making a lot of money too (plus voters are seemingly loving it). The only thing that gives me pause is that he would be the youngest Best Actor winner since Adrian Brody to win, and with Lead Actor they don't tend to go for younger men. Still, the immersiveness of the performance is probably enough to counteract whatever biases some voters might have against his age. 

[Hector]

2 minutes ago, Dark Miracles said:

How the **** is Javier Bardem nominated instead of Cooper Koch this makes literally zero sense

Javier was nominated at the Globes too in the supporting TV category but the SAGs (stupidly) don't have any supporting categories for TV so all the actors are crammed into the lead categories.

Edited 18 hours ago by Hector

[fridayteenage]

4 minutes ago, Hector said:

Fernanda Torres up to #5 on Gold Derby's Best Actress predictions list, definitely the Isabelle Huppert of the year. 

Andrea Riseborough, ignored by bafta sag aacta bfca, no trifecta win

Huppert won ny, la, nsfc. Her equivalent would be marianne

 

[Blue Monday]

46 minutes ago, EnigmaticAndroid said:

Also, just a reminder that films can overperform at SAG and flop in wins. A Star is Born, Barbie, Bombshell, Banshees, and House of Gucci all did and blanked. Momentum, narratives, and social consciousness tend to matter most for them. 

Their choices are also usually informed of heat/narratives earlier on in the race because of when they vote (which explain things like ASIB, Barbie, etc.).  

[Dark Miracles]

Jolie didn't even win Volpi Cup at Venice so it's not like she was ever looking dominant

[Dark Miracles]

5 minutes ago, Hector said:

Javier was nominated at the Globes too in the supporting TV category but the SAGs (stupidly) don't have any supporting categories for TV so all the actors are crammed into the lead categories.

Oh right. Still very strange that he'd get more votes than either Koch or Chavez though  

[Donquizote]

Globe gave that win to Brody because he never won before.

I think Chalamet peaks at the right time during Oscar season.

[Alyssa Edwards]

I don't know if Angelina is getting the nomination but i'll say this :

 

She unalived the F**** out of Ms. Callas. Her face barely moved the whole movie, she was extremely stoic the whole way through. At the end when we see the real Maria Callas appear in archival footage her demeanor is playful, expressive and... human ?

What we saw was Angelina Jolie doing an accent during 2 hours, sorry. The movie itself was better than her performance.

 

[Tm4074]

My suspicions were confirmed with SAG that this race is shaping up to be American voters vs. international voters. BAFTA longlist and GG (international awards bodies) love Emilia Perez and The Substance which are both international films. CCA loved Wicked and Anora while SAG favored Wicked, Anora, and ACU which are all American films. The Brutalist underperforming at SAG is not shocking, it's over 3 hours long and doesn't seem like a film SAG would go crazy for. Pearce snub was a blow though. Still think it's top 2 for BP. 

 

It's funny how quick everyone assumed Anora and Wicked were over after GG when it's the first televised award show of the season and it's not an industry award. It was very reactionary especially in a year like this with no solid frontrunner. I mean remember CODA? It had a poor showing at GG and won BP at the Oscars. 

 

Wicked is likely going to win Ensemble at SAG. Bailey nom kinda confirms it. Only 5 other films in SAG history received 5 nominations and 3 went on the win Ensemble (only Doubt and Banshees missed).

 

JLC getting SAG + BAFTA longlist. I wouldn't dismiss her chances to make it in especially when spots 3-5 are chaotic in Supporting Actress. 

 

[Riot]

1 hour ago, Lovett said:

 

Just in time to change some winners at the last minute

 

I'm still having nightmares about that Glenn Close/Lady Gaga tie

[fridayteenage]

28 minutes ago, Blue Monday said:

Angelina Jolie is Angelina Jolie though, and we just watched Brendan Fraser ride a comeback narrative all the way to an Oscar win despite a pretty awful film, so it was still within the realm of possibility. What's shocking to me is just how fast she fizzled out though, it wasn't even really a slow burn. 

 

Despite losing at the Globes I'm still thinking Timothée is the one to beat in Actor. I still haven't seen The Brutalist, but it just feels like the stars are aligning for Timothée in a way that usually results in a win. He's had several consecutive box office smashes AND his awards contender is making a lot of money too (plus voters are seemingly loving it). The only thing that gives me pause is that he would be the youngest Best Actor winner since Adrian Brody to win, and with Lead Actor they don't tend to go for younger men. Still, the immersiveness of the performance is probably enough to counteract whatever biases some voters might have against his age. 

Aronofsky got Portman an Oscar, got fraser an Oscar

Larrain couldn't even get Portman a globe