charts discussion Final predictions (10/28): Taylor #1, 60+pts ahead of #2

[IBeMe]

I have a feeling SZA's team will see this and act on it. They are very active this time around (as they should be). 

Taylor's chance at #1 will be completely eliminated the minute SZA's team lifts a finger. Snooze is gaining lots of ground on radio rn. Taylor only has a shot this week if SZA doesn't do anything which is very unlikely. I gander they will wait and release something like on the last day of tracking just to seal the deal. Oh well. 

[Taylor fanboy]

Snooze outperforming Karma and Jaded.

[Michael196]

Spotify this week - last week:

 

PTTR:

friday: 1.411M - 1.679M = -268k

saturday: 1.250M - 1.494M = -244k

sunday: 1.099M - 1.249M = -150k

 

IDGAF:

friday: 2.209M - 4.057M = -1.848M

saturday: 1.787M - 2.658M = -871k

sunday: 1.538M - 1.869M = -331k

 

Snooze:

friday: 714k - 752k = -38k

saturday: 642k - 676k = -34k

sunday: 599k - 618k = -19k

 

CS:

friday: 1.138M - 1.148M = -10k

saturday: 1.129M - 1.070M = 59k

sunday: 1.038M - 919k = 119k

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Michael196

[Polgg48]

disastrous update for bad bunny, casual start to move on from him entering stans/die hard fans supports phase. 

 

let's go SNOOZE

[pride4jc1222]

Not a surprise, but Anti-Hero is expected to survive a 52nd week due to boosts in sales and streaming from the movie: 

At this point, I think Cruel Summer is close to having the #1 on this chart locked. It's the only one maintaining its streams (and has more than doubled its sales), in a week where everything else is declining in the consumption metrics.

[Mr. Duff]

Anti-Hero getting Taylor her first 52-weeker in the BB100  

Can Cruel Summer do the same?

[Bosque]

And people here tried to say Anti Hero isn’t a hit with the GP 

[gardendreams]

I can see SZA getting the spot in 2 weeks if she doesn't get it now. 

 

Go off queen!!

[family.guy123]

30 minutes ago, Dephira said:

And people here tried to say Anti Hero isn’t a hit with the GP 

Where

[Dula Peep]

Snooze pull through

[Strawberry Bubble]

Taylor, do something babe, say something, you're losing me 

[PoisonedIvy]

I tried to buy Cruel Summer but i forgot i buy her albums the day they come out every time  I guess I gotta figure out how to buy something on Amazon music 

[Kylizzle]

Here for SZA or Taylor getting it 

[Ger]

 

CS performing really good!

[Kylizzle]

Would Taylor be the first person to be #1 at the box office and the hot 100 at the same time? 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Kylizzle

[spree]

6 minutes ago, Kylizzle said:

Would Taylor be the first person to be #1 at the box office and the hot 100 at the same time? 

no, Jlo has done it.

[slw84]

40 minutes ago, spree said:

no, Jlo has done it.

JLO did it with a #1 album and #1 movie

 

Has anyone done. itwith a #1 song and #1 movie. For some reason, I'm thinking maybe Eminem or someone but it's a small list.

[slw84]

So really if anyone wants to pull a stunt they need to do it in the next few days. I don't know why their labels are acting shy.

 

Do what you have to do.

[Green]

Based on that tweet it's between doja and Taylor. 

[B-Luke]

Winston has both Taylor and Doja at exactly 210pts points

This will be exciting

[byzantium]

2 hours ago, Dephira said:

And people here tried to say Anti Hero isn’t a hit with the GP 

I'm beginning to think that ATRL might not have a strong understanding of the GP

[lukascharts]

59 minutes ago, B-Luke said:

Winston has both Taylor and Doja at exactly 210pts points

This will be exciting

These points are way off lol. Winston just posted that to clout chase it's not trustworthy.

 

Monaco keeps tanking, no reason it's going to be close to 200 points. At this point it might not even go top 5 (which it only needs around 170 points to do).

 

Paint The Town Red is now losing a lot of Spotify and CS also didn't gain very much in streams. (Sales are going to add like 3 points anyways). No reason the former is only going to lose 5%. The latter is also not gonna jump 8% when radio (which is stable) makes up about half of its points.

 

205 is a way more reasonable guess for the songs' points. 

[lukascharts]

On 10/14/2023 at 7:27 AM, Blue Rose said:

clearly was not referring atrl and not just this one situation

Can we at least wait until 2 or 3 days of tracking before making these predictions? Bad Bunny will likely fall hard tomorrow and Drake will continue to free fall. This is clearly another week at #1 for Doja 

Clearly? Lol. It's going to be lucky to get 8.5 million streams on US Spotify this week, while last week it did almost 10 million. A -15% fall on streams is significant and is the sole reason why other songs are competing it, especially as it's not rising very much on radio.

 

Also if you think "Bad Bunny will likely fall hard tomorrow"/"Drake will continue to freefall" is going to change the predictions, you're wrong! Because these drops are obviously factored into the prediction! Drake's IDGAF is still predicted #3 for that reason (Bad Bunny freefell harder than anyone expected, hence why it dropped). Also, comments like these remind me of the PTTR vs. Vampire week where people were so sure Vampire was going to lose because "it's only predicted a few points above and it keeps falling" when that was obviously factored into every prediction. The end result? Vampire won by a few points, as was predicted the entire week.

 

Also, like it or not, stans do want to see predictions as early as possible and thus TOTC is catering to that. It's not like they're the only account that does that anyways (CD posted "Fast Car"/"Cruel Summer" challenging for #1 on Saturday on Richmond's second week at #1).

[UnusualBoy]

Hope CS manages to get it, although I hate 1 week #1s but I'm taking what I can get lol.

[Enrique523]

6 hours ago, Dephira said:

And people here tried to say Anti Hero isn’t a hit with the GP 

I still can't believe people really tried to push that propaganda, objective numbers shows that it's always been a hit from day 1