Life Savers Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 Barbie. Their marketing has been top notch and it just looks like a more accessible film. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessie Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 45 minutes ago, ALA said: Uh... you can drag me if it ends up flopping but the buzz on Barbie is huuuuge. There is no way this is gonna open that low. It's gonna open really big imo. Social media hype is great which is why I think it will avoid being an out and out bomb but there’s no comps really that I can think of to suggest this movie has a higher ceiling; Barbie is going to rely a lot on older female demos turning out to really hit its upper potential and I don’t know if I see it. If it does break out / overperform, I think that number would look something like Ocean’s 8 ($41m); again considering how badly live-action comedies in general do in recent years that would be a fantastic result ignoring how expensive the film cost. Realistically, matching the $30m opening of The Lost City feels more doable, especially as that movie was anchored by two bigger stars, shares a similar irreverent tone and rating (PG-13) and that gross was considered a big Box Office win too. Big numbers mean different things for different movies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arcadius Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 41 minutes ago, Ampersand13 said: Oppenheimer just got an R rating though didn't it? I feel like that might have some impact. R rating and 3 hours long, unless critics call it the greatest film in cinema I’d be shocked if it does over $50M opening weekend. But Nolan has a strong audience so who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EnigmaticAndroid Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, Jessie said: Anything over $40m would be a major breakout for Barbie but I think it’s likely to wind up in the high $20m - $30m range similar to The Lost City if it lives up to its viral marketing push. It’s still such a niche sell; live-action comedies aren’t doing gangbusters and I would still not be surprised if it underperforms. Oppenheimer should be okay opening in the high $40m range especially with it dominating PLF screens. Interstellar was not far off 3 hours and opened to $47m back in 2014; WWII thriller Dunkirk managed $50m in 2017. Trying to use Tenet as a comp is beyond ridiculous and there’s probably more pent up demand to experience a Nolan film again in cinemas in part thanks to that pandemic release. Anything over $50m would be very strong. R rating might prevent that but feels negligible considering how the demos are going to skew older anyway. MI7 is the wildcard, depends how high it climbs and how much it burns its demand with a five day opening but it could definitely challenge for a #1 holdover probably somewhere in the $40m range too. Losing PLF screens to Oppenheimer will probably kneecap that potential though which is why Tom is so mad Tbh, I'd argue that MI7 could be a strong hurdle for Oppenheimer. While it may not have the premium screens, it's also more traditional Summer "bro" fare whose star is riding another huge career wave. Oppenheimer, a 3 hour drama about the making of the atomic bomb in the middle of Summer, is still a tough sell on paper. Casual audiences might be less inclined to see it in theaters. It's legs and/or opening could be kneecapped by safer genre fluff going for the same core audiences. On the other hand, Barbie is basically the only film of its kind for a while. Little Mermaid won't factor atp and No Hard Feelings is coming out a month before. It's going to be the one film serving women for a good chunk of Summer while still having cross appeal. I wouldn't be shocked if it's audience scores were reminiscent of Mean Girls. Edited June 5, 2023 by EnigmaticAndroid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KanMap Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 Barbie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baby Judas Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 16 hours ago, SchmoodRing said: why are we even comparing and pitting these 2 against each other? make it make sense Because of the same release date? Both movies will basically fight for #1 for that weekend. It's gays vs straights, I fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baby Judas Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 I'm not a movie gross expert, but anything below $50M for Barbie sounds like a flop.. Idk, with its hype, it should easily do at least $70M, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roberto Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 (edited) Hard to tell, but I'm going for Barbie. Edited June 6, 2023 by Roberto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onion Girl Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 neither Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eternium Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 4 hours ago, Baby Judas said: I'm not a movie gross expert, but anything below $50M for Barbie sounds like a flop.. Idk, with its hype, it should easily do at least $70M, right? We’ve only had 7 out of 22 weeks so far this year where a film has grossed more than $70M in a week. Also, the Barbie movie only has a budget of $100M, so it only needs a total of about $250M to break even. It will probably be pretty hard for the film to flop because it’s not a huge investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blade Runner Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Hopefully none of them. We need real cinema back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Duff Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Barbie has more hype although it could also go either way. I'm betting on Oppenheimer, it feels like the silent movie that would kill the box office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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