movie 96th Academy Awards | Top Winners: Oppenheimer 7x, Poor Things 4x

[Liafen]

Heck, one could even argue that a split Gladstone/Stone race even benefits Hüller and could propel her to come insanely close to gold since her nr of votes is unaffected by AMPAS members' inherent want to vote for the eventual winner. (I assume that also helped Colman in the Gaga/Glenn split race.)

[WildAmerican]

bad timing for the Emmys, they're gonna seem so copy/paste when Beef/The Bear/Succession sweep everything

[Liafen]

2 minutes ago, Leptine said:

You can't compare an established veteran like Frances McDormand with +40 years of career and Emma Stone, it tookher +20 years to win the second, 2 totally different positions and scenarios.

 

The last time a young actress pulled a double win in lead with few years of distance is Jodie Foster +30 years ago in a movie that was frontrunner to win best picture and that it was the movie case the year that became an instant cult with a big box office, definitely not the case of Stone.

And Mery's third took 30 years and a certain someone but she's also an established veteran. I'm just saying that the same 'Academy members won't give out 2nd (or in case 3rd) awards so soon' reasoning was used against the likeliness of a McDormand win in '21, with her being 2nd/3rd in the standings. Mahershala Ali comes to mind as well. I think pundits and predictors put way too much importance on previous wins, as if it's a be-all end-all argument on why someone won't win. 

[Leptine]

5 minutes ago, Liafen said:

It wouldn't have been shocking, that's true, it was in the realm of possibility, but it also wasn't an expected win. Everyone already kinda knew Lily would take it. She could've used the visibility of course, but losing there doesn't mean she's done. Days after her loss, she suddenly gained a huge momentum with PGA noms for both Anatomy and Zone. 

With BAFTA, what I'm saying is that there's actually a membership overlap there with AMPAS, and a win could indicate that the British/International bloc stands behind Hüller. I'm not saying it will be enough for her to pull through, but If she doesn't win that, she's out in 99.99% of the possible scenarios come Oscar night.  

It's not impossible of course, but we're talking predictions, at the actual state of things, I don't see her winning with only a BAFTA, assuming she's gonna take it.

 

 

[Leptine]

1 hour ago, Liafen said:

And Mery's third took 30 years and a certain someone but she's also an established veteran. I'm just saying that the same 'Academy members won't give out 2nd (or in case 3rd) awards so soon' reasoning was used against the likeliness of a McDormand win in '21, with her being 2nd/3rd in the standings. Mahershala Ali comes to mind as well. I think pundits and predictors put way too much importance on previous wins, as if it's a be-all end-all argument on why someone won't win. 

Again, they are different scenarios for different reasons, the year that McDormand won the third it was also a fractured race with the drama Globe going to a contender that nobody was expecting and that was barely predicted (Andra Day) that was never going to win the Oscar, all the precursors that year went to different people, it was unprecedent (recently at least) in that category, wins need to be analyzed also in the specific contest.

 

Alì is in another category with an already recent precedent of winning two in short times (Waltz), and yes the Academy proved majority of times to rarely give second or third Oscar easily, especially in certain categories, it's pointless mentioning very rare and specific scenarios when doing predictions, otherwise we can stay name Marcia Gay Harden and thinking that everybody can pull a win.

[fridayteenage]

best actress this century, times when a viable repeat winner lost:

blanchett - against the BP winner

davis - against the BP winner

arguably streep 2009 - solo nom, vs. bullock who managed to drag her movie to a bp nom just off of her performance

christie - in a film with 1 other nom

spacek - in a supporting wife role

 

I don't think "oscars don't like giving repeat wins so easily" is necessarily true. 

Emma is not against the BP winner, is in a movie that should get plenty of noms, and is not a supporting wife.

[Hector]

3 minutes ago, fridayteenage said:

best actress this century, times when a viable repeat winner lost:

arguably streep 2009 - solo nom, vs. bullock who managed to drag her movie to a bp nom just off of her performance

She had a much better shot of winning the year before since she won the SAG for Doubt, and had Winslet not been so painfully overdue. 

[fridayteenage]

13 minutes ago, Hector said:

She had a much better shot of winning the year before since she won the SAG for Doubt, and had Winslet not been so painfully overdue. 

after kate was officially in lead for The Reader, she was a complete lock

Edited January 15 by fridayteenage

[Hector]

1 minute ago, fridayteenage said:

after kate was officially in lead for The Reader, she was a mortal lock

After the BAFTA win, yes. And I think Carey Mulligan was also neck-in-neck with Meryl at the 2010 Oscars since she won the BAFTA for An Education. 

[fridayteenage]

5 minutes ago, Hector said:

After the BAFTA win, yes. 

no, upon the nomination.

 

globes: double kate win

sag: kate and meryl win

bafta: kate win

 

The only chance meryl had was if Kate got double Oscar noms, lead for Rev and sup for Reader.

[hausofdave]

[TheDreamer]

This wouldn't have been a problem with Gladstone if she sticked with Supporting which is what her performance is  

[EnigmaticAndroid]

5 minutes ago, TheDreamer said:

This wouldn't have been a problem with Gladstone if she sticked with Supporting which is what her performance is  

Yeah, I think that's her biggest hurdle. A decent amount of people don't even see her as a lead. That's a fundamental issue for the category she's competing in. And then there's the fact that it's a very passive, reactionary role.

 

Needless to say, the idea that she's a lock for SAG is honestly a bit baffling to me. When we put aside her narrative, when was the last time a performance and role like Mollie won Lead Actress at SAG? It'd be an unusual pick for them. 

[family.guy123]

4 hours ago, fridayteenage said:

no, upon the nomination.

 

globes: double kate win

sag: kate and meryl win

bafta: kate win

 

The only chance meryl had was if Kate got double Oscar noms, lead for Rev and sup for Reader.

That nomination morning was so crazy. She likely got enough votes for 3 nominations if they allowed it.

[wesleywalrus]

Would be thrilled waking up Oscar morning to a Gladstone supporting nom. 

 

Stone / Murphy / Gladstone / RDJ Gosling would be so goated. 

[Liafen]

5 hours ago, family.guy123 said:

That nomination morning was so crazy. She likely got enough votes for 3 nominations if they allowed it.

Three? Rev, Reader, and?

[keerbyriri]

14 hours ago, Leptine said:

The last time a young actress pulled a double win in lead with few years of distance is Jodie Foster +30 years ago in a movie that was frontrunner to win best picture and that it was the movie case the year that became an instant cult with a big box office, definitely not the case of Stone.

Hilary Swank did it more recently than Foster, similar distance that Stone has between wins if she snatches it for Poor Things. Stone is undeniable in Poor Things and has even more industry/public respect than Swank did, I think she wins this.

[family.guy123]

4 hours ago, Liafen said:

Three? Rev, Reader, and?

Reader x2 

[Leptine]

2 hours ago, keerbyriri said:

Hilary Swank did it more recently than Foster, similar distance that Stone has between wins if she snatches it for Poor Things. Stone is undeniable in Poor Things and has even more industry/public respect than Swank did, I think she wins this.

Swank situation is more similar to Foster tho, since the movie for which she won the second was frontrunner to win best picture, director and another acting category with a big box office success, it was the most talking about movie that year and she didn't have a strong competition since she was the only one between nominees attached to a best picture conteder.

 

My point is that Stone being already a recent and young winner plays in favor of Gladstone, considering at the actual state of things I still see her as frontrunner, if Stone takes SAG then I won't have doubts to predic Stone winning (assuming Gladstone is not winning BAFTA).

[hausofdave]

With the prospect of Holdovers winning 2 acting awards, don't see how Payne misses. Three Billboards was divisive so that's how I'll explain McDonagh.

[WildAmerican]

i'll try to start updating the thread title based on latest happenings, someone remind me if I start slipping 

[fridayteenage]

1 hour ago, hausofdave said:

With the prospect of Holdovers winning 2 acting awards, don't see how Payne misses. Three Billboards was divisive so that's how I'll explain McDonagh.

as good as it gets?

dallas buyers club?

 

i also don't think (for now) that paul will win.

[WildAmerican]

The 2023 Visual Effects Society (VES) Nominations

 

OUTSTANDING VISUAL EFFECTS IN A PHOTOREAL FEATURE
“Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny”
“Oppenheimer”
“The Creator”

 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING VISUAL EFFECTS IN A PHOTOREAL FEATURE
“John Wick: Chapter 4”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Napoleon”
“Nyad”
“Society of the Snow”

 

OUTSTANDING VISUAL EFFECTS IN AN ANIMATED FEATURE
“Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”
“Elemental”
“Nimona”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”

[Hector]

Motion Picture Sound Editors Golden Reel Award Nominations:

 

Spoiler

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Animation
“Elemental”
Disney / Pixar
Supervising Sound Editors: Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott
Sound Designer: Ren Klyce
Sound Effects Editors: Jonathan Stevens, Ben Burtt, Kim Patrick, Steve Bissinger
Supervising Dialogue Editor: Rich Quinn
Dialogue Editor: Lisa Chino
Supervising Foley Editor: Dee Selby
Foley Editor: Nicolas Docter
Foley Artists: Shelley Roden MPSE, Heikki Kossi MPSE

“Migration”
Illumination
Supervising Sound Editors: Daniel Laurie, Josh Gold
Sound Effects Editors: Richard Gould, Luke Dunn-Gielmuda, Scott Guitteau
Supervising Foley Editor: Thom Brennan
Foley Editor: E. Larry Oatfield
Foley Artists: Sean England, Andrea Gard
Music Editor: Bill Bernstein

“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Sony Pictures Animation
Supervising Sound Editor: Geoffrey G. Rubay
Sound Designers: John J. Pospisil, Alec G. Rubay, Kip Smedley
Sound Effects Editors: Cathryn Wang, David Werntz, Bruce Tanis MPSE, Greg ten Bosch MPSE, Daniel McNamara MPSE, Will Digby, Andy Sisul
Supervising Dialogue Editor: James Morioka MPSE
Dialogue Editors: Robert Getty MPSE, Jason W. Freeman, Kai Scheer, Ashley N. Rubay
Foley Supervisor: Colin Lechner MPSE
Foley Artist: Gregg Barbanell MPSE, Jeff Wilhoit MPSE, Dylan Wilhoit
Supervising Music Editor: Katie Greathouse
Music Editor: Barbara McDermott

“The Super Mario Bros Movie”
Universal Pictures
Supervising Sound Editor: Daniel Laurie
Sound Designers: Randy Thom MPSE, Jamey Scott MPSE
Sound Effects Editors: Leff Lefferts, Qianbaihui Yang MPSE, Scott Guitteau
Supervising Foley Editor: E. Larry Oatfield
Foley Editor: Zach Martin
Foley Artists: Ronni Brown, Jana Vance, Sean England

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Documentary
“32 Sounds”
ArKtype
Supervising ADR Editor: Eliza Paley
Sound Designer: Mark Mangini MPSE
Sound Editor: Robert Kellough MPSE
ADR Editor: Mari Matsuo
Foley Artist: Joanna Fang MPSE

“American Symphony”
Higher Ground Productions
Supervising Sound Editor: Tristan Baylis MPSE, Tom Paul
Foley Artist: Leslie Bloome
Sound Effects Editors: Matt Snedecor, Mark Filip

“Mourning In Lod”
Medalia Productions
Supervising Sound Editors: Yossi Appelbaum, Lior Weitzman
Sound Designer: Yossi Appelbaum

“Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”
AppleTV+
Supervising Sound Editor: Skip Lievsay
Sound Effects Editor: Rich Bologna
Dialogue Editor: Michael Feuser
Foley Supervisor: Matt Haasch
Foley Editor: Heather Gross
Foley Artist: Jay Peck

“Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour”
Taylor Swift Productions
Sound Editor: Phil DeTolve
Music Supervisor: David Cook

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Foreign Language Feature
“Anatomy of a Fall”
Neon
Sound Editors: Fanny Martin, Jeanne Delplancq

“The Zone of Interest”
A24
Supervising Sound Editor: Johnnie Burn MPSE
Sound Effects Editors: Simon Carroll, Max Behrens, Joe Mount, Brendan Feeney
Foley Editors: Ewa Mazurkiewicz, Natalia Lubowiecka MPSE, Dawid Konecki, Kamil Kwiatkowski

“Godzilla Minus One”
Robot Communications
Foley Artist: Natsuko Inoue

“Society of the Snow”
Netflix
Supervising Sound Editors: Oriol Tarragó, Iosu Martinez, Guillem Giró
Foley Artists: Erik Vidal, Kiku Vidal
Sound Editors: Sarah Romero, Marc Bech, Brendan Golden
Sound Designer: Oriol Tarragó
Music Editor: John Finklea

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Dialogue / ADR
“Barbie”
Supervising Sound Editors: Ai-Ling Lee, Dan Kenyon
Warner Bros.
Supervising Dialogue / ADR Editor: Brian Bowles MPSE
Dialogue Editors: Kate Bilinski, Tony Martinez, Tyler Newhouse

“Killers of the Flower Moon”
AppleTV+
Supervising Sound Editors: Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty
Dialogue Editors: Julia Stockton, Philip Stockton
ADR Editor: Marissa Littlefield

“Maestro”
Netflix
Supervising Sound Editors: Richard King, Rich Bologna
Supervising Dialogue / ADR Editor: Tony Martinez
Dialogue Editors: Eliza Paley, Jac Rubenstein, Fred Rosenberg
Supervising Music Editor: Jason Ruder

“Napoleon”
AppleTV+
Supervising Sound Editors: Oliver Tarney MPSE, James Harrison
Supervising Dialogue Editor: Michael Maroussas
Dialogue Editor: Rachael Tate MPSE

“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures
Supervising Sound Editor: Richard King
Supervising Dialogue Editor: David Bach
Dialogue Editors: Russell Farmarco, Albert Gasser MPSE

“Poor Things”
Searchlight Pictures
Supervising Sound Editor: Johnnie Burn MPSE
Dialogue Editors: Tristan Baylis MPSE, Peter Russell

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Effects / Foley
“Gran Turismo”
Columbia Pictures
Supervising Sound Editors: Kami Asgar MPSE, Erin Oakley
Sound Designer: Charles Deenen
Sound Effects Editors: Sam Fan, Matt Cavanaugh MPSE
Sound Designer: Tim Gedemer MPSE
Foley Artists: Gary Hecker MPSE, Mike Horton
Foley Editor: Jessica Parks

“Ferrari”
Neon
Supervising Sound Editors: Tony Lamberti, Bernard Weiser MPSE
Sound Designer: David Wentz
Sound Effects Editor: Brent Findley MPSE, Steven Ticknor, Benjamin Cook MPSE
Supervising Foley Editor: Beso Kacharava MPSE
Foley Artist: Biko Gogaladze
Foley Editors: Alexander Sanikidze, Rati Chkhetiani

“John Wick Chapter 4”
Lionsgate
Supervising Sound Editor: Paul Soucek MPSE
Sound Designers: Mark Stoeckinger, Luke Gibleon, Olivia Xiao’ou Zhang MPSE, Stephen Robinson MPSE, Gael Nicolas
Sound Effects Editors: Casey Genton, Nicolas Interlandi

“Napoleon”
AppleTV+
Supervising Sound Editors: Oliver Tarney MPSE, James Harrison
Sound Designers: Mike Fentum, Hugo Adams
Sound Effects Editors: Aran Clifford, Kevin Penney, Rowan Watson
Foley Artists: Oliver Ferris, Sue Harding

“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures
Supervising Sound Editor: Richard King
Sound Effects Editor: Michael Mitchell
Sound Designer: Randy Torres
Supervising Foley Editor: Christopher Flick
Foley Artists: Dan O’Connell, John Cucci MPSE

“The Killer”
Netflix
Sound Designer: Ren Klyce
Sound Effects Editors: Jonathon Stevens, Malcolm Fife
Supervising Sound Editor: Jeremy Molod
Supervising Foley Editor: Thom Brennan
Foley Editor: Dee Selby
Foley Artists: Shelley Roden MPSE, John Roesch MPSE

 

Outstanding Achievement in Music Editing – Documentary
“American Symphony”
Netflix
Lead Music Editor: Ignacio Bonet

“Pianoforte”
Greenwich Entertainment
Supervising Music Editor: Michal Fojcik MPSE
Music Editor: Joanna Popowicz

“Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”
AppleTV+
Music Editor: Bill Bernstein

“Wham!”
Netflix
Music Editor: Greg Gettens

Outstanding Achievement in Music Editing – Feature Motion Picture
“Barbie”
Warner Bros.
Supervising Music Editor: Suzana Perić
Music Editor: Mick Gormaley

“Creed III”
Amazon / MGM
Music Editor: Nicholas Fitzgerald

“Maestro”
Netflix
Supervising Music Editor: Jason Ruder
Music Editor: Victoria Ruggiero

“Oppenheimer”
Universal Pictures
Supervising Music Editor: Amanda Goodpaster
Music Editors: Felipe Pacheco, Alex Gibson

“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Sony Pictures
Supervising Music Editor: Katie Greathouse
Music Editor: Barbara McDermott

“Wonka”
Warner Bros.
Supervising Music Editor: Katrina Schiller MPSE
Music Editors: Mark Willsher MPSE, Michael Connell, Janet Grab

 

[Gui Blackout]

Oscar voters if you're in line for Andrew Scott STAY IN LINE!