discussion Brazil presidential elections: Round 2 - Lula defeats Bolsonaro!! ??

[Gui Blackout]

4 minutes ago, NicoleAMatty said:

The senate is just... over. PACKED with conservatives. 8 whole years of having to deal with all those nasty people.

Hate to be that person, but this is already a defeat for us. Even if Lula wins.

Yeah Lula didn't help the down the ticket candidades at all. Like in Minas, he's winning there but the governor is Bolsonaro-ish, the senator + most voted deputado federal and estadual are Bolsominions

[NausAllien]

6 minutes ago, Gui Blackout said:

Very little room for Bolsonaro to gain here. The other candidates are more center/center-left so Lula will snatch the most votes going forward.

I heard most of the people who voted for Tebet (4.3%) will vote to Bolsonaro. Maybe somebody else can confirm if this is true.

 

[Mat.91]

1 minute ago, NicoleAMatty said:

Pollsters are pretty much over, by the way.

Same old story here

 

Lula % was spot on (most pollsters had him on the lead with 47-48%)

 

Bolsanaro % was not, and we've seen this unfolding many times now

 

Still, Lula should win 2R

[Mat.91]

90% in

 

Lula 47.12%
Bolsanaro 44.32%

 

The trending leads to a 48% vs 43.5% outcome

Edited October 2, 2022 by Mat.91

[Gui Blackout]

Just now, NausAllien said:

I heard most of the people who voted for Tebet (4.3%) will vote to Bolsonaro. Maybe somebody else can confirm if this is true.

 

Not from any polls i've seen

 

https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2022/10/datafolha-eleitores-volateis-de-tebet-e-ciro-migram-mais-para-lula-que-para-bolsonaro.shtml

[AMIT]

I knew Lula winning 1st turn was far fetched, but this is still so annoying to witness 

 

B*lsonaro and his minions are such sore LOSERS but what's new 

[4Real]

It boggles my mind that Bolsonaro basically has the same amount of votes he had in 2018's first round. Vile

[John Slayne]

26 minutes ago, NausAllien said:

Not yet. We'll see what happens on October 30th.

 

I'm speaking it into existence 

 

Join me in manifesting!

[NausAllien]

13 minutes ago, Gui Blackout said:

Not from any polls i've seen

Sis, are you seriously about to show me some polls after every poll gave Bolsonaro 30-36%?????????

 

EDIT: 

And they actually got it even worse down-ballot:

 

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by NausAllien

[anti-bitch]

It seems a common thread around the world that conservatives either don't answer to pollsters or just flat out lie to them.

[Gui Blackout]

1 minute ago, NausAllien said:

Sis, are you seriously about to show me some polls after every poll gave Bolsonaro 30-36%?????????

Then were are getting your information that Tebet voters will vote for Bolsonaro?

[anti-bitch]

Anyway, I hope Lula wins in the end.

[NausAllien]

Just now, Gui Blackout said:

Then were are getting your information that Tebet voters will vote for Bolsonaro?

From people on Twitter, who actually seem to be more informed and they were closer to the actual results than professional pollsters. GO FIGURE...

 

[John Slayne]

24 minutes ago, NicoleAMatty said:

Pollsters are pretty much over, by the way.

Well, that depends on what you expect from them. Even if a poll works with a representative sample, the margin of error is between 3-4% with 95% probability. That is you have a 5% chance that the results will go for more than 4% either way. 

 

What this means is that basically in close elections like this one results can easily flip. If Party A is polling at 50% and Party B at 42%, that is within the margin of error so Party B can still be reasonably expected to overperform on the election day. And even if Party B was lower than 42%, they would still have a small chance of beating out Party A. That is assuming that voters won't change date mind in the time between when the poll was taken and when the election actually happens, and a good portion of voters can flip based on new information. 

 

I haven't really been following the polls for this election but based on what's being said in this thread it was always going to be close, so if the polls are putting Lula in a narrow lead I wouldn't start celebrating just yet. 

Edited October 2, 2022 by John Slayne

[Ms. Togekiss]

What’s the tea in Brazil? We know the kind of Americans that vote for Trump, who are the Brazilians that vote for Bolsanaro? 

[Gui Blackout]

Just now, NausAllien said:

From people on Twitter, who actually seem to be more informed and they were closer to the actual results than professional pollsters. GO FIGURE...

 

You're giving Bolsominion tea rn

[Mat.91]

7 minutes ago, John Slayne said:

Well, that depends on what you expect from them. Even if a poll works with a representative sample, the margin of error is between 3-4% with 95% probability. That is you have a 5% chance that the results will go for more than 4% either way. 

 

What this means is that basically in close elections like this one results can easily flip. If Party A is polling at 50% and Party B at 42%, Party B still has a reasonable chance to win. And even if Party B was lower than 42%, they would still have a small chance of beating out Party A. That is assuming that voters won't change date mind in the time between when the poll was taken and when the election actually happens, and a good portion of voters can flip based on new information. 

 

I haven't really been following the polls for this election but based on what's being said in this thread it was always going to be close, so if the polls are putting Lula in a narrow lead I wouldn't start celebrating just yet. 

Nah, pollsters were good at predicting Lula's share

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election

 

They just underestimated Bolsonaro's, which is not uncommon as loads of his supporter won't declare their vote. We've seen this happening many times already when right wing voters are involved.

 

Bolsonaro could still win a 2R but only if something MAJOR happens in the current month leading to October 30 and so Lula supporters won't vote

 

Edited October 3, 2022 by Mat.91

[liquiddiamonds]

Never doubt the hatred people have for Worker's Party in Brazil. It's deep rooted, it runs for years and it got worse during the Dilma government. My theory so far is that the right-wingers that were in doubt about supporting Bolsonaro again and were aligned with the likes of Tebet, Gomes and Davila decided to support Bolsonaro again in a scenario that PT (Worker's Party) could take the presidency on the first round. The polls backfired. A lot of voters absent too just like in 2018.

[John Slayne]

3 minutes ago, Mat.91 said:

Nah, pollsters were good at predicting Lula share

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election

 

They just underestimated Bolsonaro's, which is not uncommon as loads of his supporter won't declare their vote. We've seen this happening many times already when right wing voters are involved.

 

Bolsonaro could still win a 2R but only if something MAJOR happens in the current month leading to October 30 and so Lula supporters won't vote

 

Fair, I was just explaining how the polls work. People often expect them to be perfect oracles when in reality predicting election results is not a hard science at all, so you have to take everything the polls say with a grain of salt.

[Mat.91]

2 minutes ago, John Slayne said:

Fair, I was just explaining how the polls work. People often expect them to be perfect oracles when in reality predicting election results is not a hard science at all, so you have to take everything the polls say with a grain of salt.

Yes, I agree

 

Indeed I also still expect October 30 to be close, despite what pollsters are about to predict (Lula likely winning)

[liquiddiamonds]

This was an election based on polarization and rejection, so the least rejected candidate in one of the poles had the upper hand regarding the end result. Lula is still such candidate, but people overestimated Bolsonaro's rejection, since his government has been underperforming in many important sectors. Lula is a highly controversial figure, as much loved as despised. It's going to be a tough October and if it remains this close we can count on mess after mess regarding the final results. It happened in 2014 and Aecio lacked the appeal Bolsonaro has to the conservative base in Brazil. 

[Green]

Bolsonaro overperforming 

[CaptainMusic]

I don’t follow Brazilian politics that closely but this is giving me Trump teas with the polls and premature celebrations.  

 

Hopefully Bolsonaro loses. 

[Communion]

37 minutes ago, liquiddiamonds said:

Never doubt the hatred people have for Worker's Party in Brazil. It's deep rooted, it runs for years and it got worse during the Dilma government. My theory so far is that the right-wingers that were in doubt about supporting Bolsonaro again and were aligned with the likes of Tebet, Gomes and Davila decided to support Bolsonaro again in a scenario that PT (Worker's Party) could take the presidency on the first round. The polls backfired. A lot of voters absent too just like in 2018.

This seems to be the most likely explanation, with the final polling showing Lula just at the edge of avoiding a run-off spooking voters who claim to disapprove of Bolsonaro to switch their votes to him.

 

 

The support of the third way candidates seemed super soft based on polling trends:

 

[ToMmY]

People acting as if Lula is much better than Bolsonaro. Reminder that only one of them went to jail.

 

Anyway, I'm very surprised by the results, I expected Lulu to decimate and... well.