news Russia Privately Warns of Deep and Prolonged Economic Damage

[Brishka]

Russia may face a longer and deeper recession as the impact of US and European sanctions spreads, handicapping sectors that the country has relied on for years to power its economy, according to an internal report prepared for the government. The document, the result of months of work by officials and experts trying to assess the true impact of Russia’s economic isolation due to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, paints a far more dire picture than officials usually do in their upbeat public pronouncements. Bloomberg viewed a copy of the report, drafted for a closed-door meeting of top officials on Aug. 30. People familiar with the deliberations confirmed its authenticity. Two of the three scenarios in the report show the contraction accelerating next year, with the economy returning to the prewar level only at the end of the decade or later. The “inertial” one sees the economy bottoming out next year 8.3% below the 2021 level, while the “stress” scenario puts the low in 2024 at 11.9% under last year’s level.

 

Beyond the restrictions themselves, which cover about a quarter of imports and exports, the report details how Russia now faces a “blockade” that “has affected practically all forms of transport,” further cutting off the country’s economy. Technological and financial curbs add to the pressure. The report estimates as many as 200,000 IT specialists may leave the country by 2025, the first official forecast of the widening brain drain. 

 

Europe’s plans to stop importing Russian oil products -- about 55% of exports went there last year -- could trigger sharp cuts in production leaving the domestic market short of fuel, as well. 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/russia-risks-bigger-longer-sanctions-hit-internal-report-warns

[IBeMe]

12 minutes ago, Brishka said:

Europe’s plans to stop importing Russian oil products -- about 55% of exports went there last year -- could trigger sharp cuts in production leaving the domestic market short of fuel, as well. 

 

I think they can/will offset this by selling oil a little cheaper to China and India (two MAJOR consumers of oil and eager to purchase from Russia even with global embargos and sanctions). Of course even cheapening prices a tiny bit will hit the Russian economy drastically but it will deff help them offset the lack of sales to Europe. This whole situation is 100% aligning Russia more so towards the East than West. It is sort of potentially permanently placing Russia into an "other" category and firmly making Europe view Russia as an outsider to the continent. 

[Brishka]

23 minutes ago, IBeMe said:

I think they can/will offset this by selling oil a little cheaper to China and India (two MAJOR consumers of oil and eager to purchase from Russia even with global embargos and sanctions). Of course even cheapening prices a tiny bit will hit the Russian economy drastically but it will deff help them offset the lack of sales to Europe. This whole situation is 100% aligning Russia more so towards the East than West. It is sort of potentially permanently placing Russia into an "other" category and firmly making Europe view Russia as an outsider to the continent. 

They are already selling their oil at a massive discount, but the price cap, if imposed successfully, will significantly cut their inflows and prevent them from artificially propping up the ruble. The G7 will prohibit the provision of all services, insurance, for shipments that exceed the price cap. China and India will have to begrudgingly comply with this policy since the EU and the UK pretty much control the entire insurance market. Otherwise, they would have to pay for unproven insurance among other risks. They will also be able to buy Russian oil even cheaper, which will be a massive hit to the Russian economy. 

[Bosque]

That is impossible, I was told by extremely reliable sources that within a single day, Russia built extensive natural gas pipelines to China and India and is now selling all their natural gas to those countries and prospering economically, while literally everyone in Europe is about to freeze to death, so we should allow them to randomly slaughter more Ukrainian civilians and take whatever sovereign territory they want. 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Dephira

[Illuminati]

2 hours ago, Dephira said:

That is impossible, I was told by extremely reliable sources that within a single day, Russia built extensive natural gas pipelines to China and India and is now selling all their natural gas to those countries and prospering economically, while literally everyone in Europe is about to freeze to death, so we should allow them to randomly slaughter more Ukrainian civilians and take whatever sovereign territory they want. 

[DonSiblon]

Thank you, Zelinsky and Biden! 
Warmongering kings

[Revolution]

suffer 

[Blue Monday]

4 hours ago, Dephira said:

That is impossible, I was told by extremely reliable sources that within a single day, Russia built extensive natural gas pipelines to China and India and is now selling all their natural gas to those countries and prospering economically, while literally everyone in Europe is about to freeze to death, so we should allow them to randomly slaughter more Ukrainian civilians and take whatever sovereign territory they want.