discussion High-ranking NY Dem: Off the record, Biden's not running in 2024

[Communion]

 

 

[KKW]

Ofc he isn’t that’s an instant loss

[HeWolf]

Wow how shocking 

isnt this man gonna be like 90 by then?  

[CaptainMusic]

Then Kamala will just be the Dem candidate for 2024 and have an even worse loss  

[Breathe On Moi]

omg this must mean Bernie will win! 

[DoItHonestly]

GOOD.

[ClashAndBurn]

29 minutes ago, KKW said:

Ofc he isn’t that’s an instant loss

Not running Biden is also an instant loss, cause everyone that they have on the backburner is even less electable than he is.  

 

Pete?  Kamala?  Either of those is what we would get, and they would both end in unmitigated disaster. 

 

I hate him with every fiber of my being, and don't want him as president either, but it's just reality.

[kandicha]

He wouldn't win, but the candidates to replace him don't seem like they would win at this point either  

 

idk at this point but to hope someone better will pop up between now and 2024.

[Sazare]

24 minutes ago, CaptainMusic said:

Then Kamala will just be the Dem candidate for 2024 and have an even worse loss  

Kamala was polling incredibly poorly among potential candidates, last I saw. Pete is probably more likely to be the nominee at this point.

[KKW]

10 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said:

Not running Biden is also an instant loss, cause everyone that they have on the backburner is even less electable than he is.  

 

Pete?  Kamala?  Either of those is what we would get, and they would both end in unmitigated disaster. 

 

I hate him with every fiber of my being, and don't want him as president either, but it's just reality.

Oh I think the Dems are losing regardless if it’s him or not. However I do think we would fare out better with someone who doesn’t have a (proven) tainted run already 

[Vermillion]

The 2024 convention will then be chaos and a repeat of the 2016 primary, where, despite denials from some here as well as the man himself, Bernie will run again. 

 

I'm not characterizing him as a spoiler or Kamala as the forced nominee by the DNC that the base doesn't want according to polling who will lose in a landslide, those are just the perceptions that are out of there (also based on the polling and focus groups) that isn't going away. 

 

Following the hypothetical that Bernie doesn't win the nomination because the DNC doesn't want to deal with the RNC's oppo on him despite the base agreeing with his policies, Kamala will get the nomination and lose both the Electoral College AND popular vote in a landslide to either Trump or DeSantis. 

 

The DNC will blame sexism and racism instead of addressing the needs of the base that Kamala isn't willing to address and the left will become further divided. National polling placing Harris ahead of both I've seen recently posted here doesn't count as you have to look state-by-state for the Electoral College - Kamala would lose the Upper Midwest in a blow-out. 

[Vermillion]

7 minutes ago, hurricane326 said:

Y'all are aware there might be a candidate other than Kamala and Pete that might snag the nomination, right? We need a truly fresh face.

It's too late in the process to create a new backbench for 2024 and Kamala's already the anointed nominee by the DNC. 

[AlanRickman1946]

Obviously...

[Jynx672]

18 minutes ago, Sazare said:

Kamala was polling incredibly poorly among potential candidates, last I saw. Pete is probably more likely to be the nominee at this point.

Hm, I don't see a gay man becoming President of the USA though, but we'll see.

[Illuminati]

40 minutes ago, Breathe On Moi said:

omg this must mean Bernie will win! 

[Vermillion]

5 minutes ago, hurricane326 said:

Ah, sad but true probably. 

 

Source on that?

About 4 articles with sourcing on the Hill off the record as to who would take his place if he dropped out. 

 

Kamala has a built-in advantage as the VP to become the presumptive nominee that would muscle out any other upstarts. I'm paraphrasing and don't have the energy or patience to look right now but that's the language. 

[ClashAndBurn]

12 minutes ago, Espresso said:

The 2024 convention will then be chaos and a repeat of the 2016 primary

Honestly it'll be more similar to 1968, though hopefully without an assassination of a leading candidate. If that were to happen, then Bernie would be the one the CIA would target (and honestly I'm surprised that they didn't in 2020, though maybe that was the plan if Super Tuesday had gone differently).

 

I have serious doubts that he runs though. His heart attack at his age might have been enough of a reality check. And honestly it's not worth the grassroots campaigning and individual small dollar donations if the process is already predetermined to end in a Kamala Harris nomination anyway. Would be pretty selfish of him to run again, especially with how horrifically the 2020 primary ended.

[Vermillion]

Pete would also lose the Upper Midwest in a blowout and thus the Electoral College and the Presidency, thanks largely to dismal turnout from black voters in urban centers like Philadelphia and Detroit.

 

If he attempts to blame the stereotype of homophobia of black voters again like his team shamelessly did last time with their piss-poor sample size focus groups it'll backfire massively. Polling on gay marriage approval is now over 50% with black voters.

 

Good comebacks on Fox News interviews that trend with neolib Twitter do not translate to good policy nor do they erase a dismal record on housing and policing in South Bend, Indiana where the local black community despise him. 

 

His hype is a Beltway mirage with no backing on the ground, and the absurd first-in-the-nation status Iowa holds no longer remotely reflects the demographics doing the hardest work in the trenches for the DNC to try and turn out voters that are getting nothing in return on a litany of issues, starting with student loans. If moderates in the party want to argue that the lower to middle class should still have to pay them off, they're welcome to that opinion - just don't expect them to bother turning out to vote if they don't see any returns. 

 

The only fear-based pushes from the moderates and DNC for turn-out I'd say might work on leftists and the base will be on Roe, but even that's a stretch unless it's on turnout for a single-issue referendum like Kansas and there's further damage done to birth control access. 

[ClashAndBurn]

38 minutes ago, Sazare said:

Kamala was polling incredibly poorly among potential candidates, last I saw. Pete is probably more likely to be the nominee at this point.

The last poll I saw had Kamala pretty far in the lead with over 50% black support and no other candidate even coming close. All she'd have to do is win South Carolina, which should be easy given the conservative black vote isn't going to go for either Pete Buttigieg (too gay, probably doesn't run against Kamala and gets her nod for VP) or Bernie Sanders (they don't trust him for various reasons, but mostly he's failed to do any outreach to black voters over the age of 30 and they're all about vibes anyway).

[DirtyPony87]

Thank goodness, but this isn’t surprising. What’s terrifying, though, is that the Democrats will probably make the worst choice imaginable and lose miserably in 2024. What are the alternatives? We are truly doomed. Depending on how this whole Trump thing shakes out, we might see DeSantis, and he’s even more terrifying than Trump.

[Vermillion]

4 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said:

Honestly it'll be more similar to 1968, though hopefully without an assassination of a leading candidate. If that were to happen, then Bernie would be the one the CIA would target (and honestly I'm surprised that they didn't in 2020, though maybe that was the plan if Super Tuesday had gone differently).

 

I have serious doubts that he runs though. His heart attack at his age might have been enough of a reality check. And honestly it's not worth the grassroots campaigning and individual small dollar donations if the process is already predetermined to end in a Kamala Harris nomination anyway. Would be pretty selfish of him to run again, especially with how horrifically the 2020 primary ended.

I don't have the energy to characterize that hypothetical as selfish but I'm not going to reject it outright either, especially given the symbolism and leftists not having another figurehead such as him for another generation or two, regardless of his faults, of which I see many, and policies, many of which I agree with. 

 

4 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said:

The last poll I saw had Kamala pretty far in the lead with over 50% black support and no other candidate even coming close. All she'd have to do is win South Carolina, which should be easy given the conservative black vote isn't going to go for either Pete Buttigieg (too gay, probably doesn't run against Kamala and gets her nod for VP) or Bernie Sanders (they don't trust him for various reasons, but mostly he's failed to do any outreach to black voters over the age of 30 and they're all about vibes anyway).

Older black voters disconnect with Bernie is about more than vibes - you and I both know that. 

 

What I've yet to see unpacked properly is Latino's continuing massive support for Bernie despite much of his past language and legislation on immigration quotas, etc. you'd think would draw more backlash but I do think there's some cultural blue-collar overlap between Bernie's Latino base and a lot of the conservative Trump-supporting Latinos like the Tejanos in South Texas and Cubanos in Miami that resent those that are illegal coming behind them and thus "pull up the ladder behind them" as a lot of Dreamers have characterized it. 

[ClashAndBurn]

36 minutes ago, KKW said:

Oh I think the Dems are losing regardless if it’s him or not. However I do think we would fare out better with someone who doesn’t have a (proven) tainted run already 

Thing is, there's zero chance (in my view) that the DNC will allow the nominee to be anyone other than Kamala Harris, because they'd lose a lot of credibility with black women if they don't rig it in her favor like they have for their preferred candidates in the past.

[ClashAndBurn]

4 minutes ago, Espresso said:

Older black voters disconnect with Bernie is about more than vibes - you and I both know that. 

I can write essays on the topic, for sure, but to summarize it as vibes is reductive, yes. However, it might not be to everyone's benefit to uh... pontificate on such things.

 

However, the distrust due to him not identifying as a Democrat is one of the biggest issues that they, as loyal Democratic voters who see nothing wrong with the Party as it stands today, would have with him. I could get more into him deciding to skip the March in Selma for a concert with half of Public Enemy (which led to the duo breaking up over it) being extremely bad optics for him.

 

9 minutes ago, Espresso said:

I don't have the energy to characterize that hypothetical as selfish but I'm not going to reject it outright either, especially given the symbolism and leftists not having another figurehead such as him for another generation or two, regardless of his faults, of which I see many, and policies, many of which I agree with.

The symbolism is part of it. Him refusing to run again would be damaging for a lot of reasons. For starters, he would be clearing the field of any potential progressives looking to start a ground effort of their own and build up their own credibility, other than self-interested hacks like Elizabeth Warren who would run into many of Kamala Harris's electability issues anyway, but would do it just to sabotage the left and prevent them from consolidating against the more moderate heirs apparent. In my view, such a run would make him out to be just as self-interested as Warren in the end.

[ZIVERT]

Not a Bernie assassination in the 2020 elections speculation  please be serious

 

It feels like the dems are doomed in the next election cycle unfortunately

[ClashAndBurn]

8 minutes ago, ZIVERT said:

Not a Bernie assassination in the 2020 elections speculation  please be serious

 

It feels like the dems are doomed in the next election cycle unfortunately

I have no doubt that the CIA would have at least considered it if the moderate Dems hadn't consolidated behind Biden and there were even a realistic chance of Bernie becoming the nominee. They absolutely did not want him and they viewed him as a more serious threat than Trump. And it will certainly be on the table if he runs again.

 

Like... that's literally what they do. They have a history of assassinating anti-war and anti-capitalist candidates both at home and abroad. It's practically the reason they exist.