discussion US Presence in Indo-Pacific in 2023 will be "More Lethal, More Mobile, Most Transform

[AlanRickman1946]

1 hour ago, Robert said:

Tbh US makes billions selling Taiwan old military equipment and Taiwan is not actively carrying out a genocide like Israel.

are they selling them or is the us gov paying the weapons corporations to give them to taiwan?

[Robert]

8 minutes ago, AlanRickman1946 said:

are they selling them or is the us gov paying the weapons corporations to give them to taiwan?

Taiwan pays for them, they have spent over $17b on US weaponry since 2019.

[AlanRickman1946]

1 hour ago, Robert said:

Taiwan pays for them, they have spent over $17b on US weaponry since 2019.

So why is Biden asking the congress to vote on it then? Can't the weapons manufacturers sell directly to taiwanese government? Why would they need the american government's permission?

[Robert]

19 minutes ago, AlanRickman1946 said:

So why is Biden asking the congress to vote on it then? Can't the weapons manufacturers sell directly to taiwanese government? Why would they need the american government's permission?

Mass arms sales have to be approved as they are directly selling military equipment. I believe it’s due to Arms Export Control Act which is basically to prevent creating an arms race, selling to terrorists and ensuring weapons are for self-defence only (at least in theory although this often isn’t true). Weapons can’t just be sold to countries freely.

Edited September 1, 2022 by Robert

[AlanRickman1946]

7 minutes ago, Robert said:

Mass arms sales have to be approved as they are directly selling military equipment. I believe it’s due to Arms Export Control Act which is basically to prevent creating an arms race, selling to terrorists and ensuring weapons are for self-defence only (at least in theory although this often isn’t true). Weapons can’t just be sold to countries freely.

Oh I see thank you for the information.

[AlanRickman1946]

On 9/1/2022 at 2:51 PM, Robert said:

Taiwan pays for them, they have spent over $17b on US weaponry since 2019.

but if that is the case and Taiwan is paying for it then how come people are complaining that Biden has money for Taiwan and Ukraine but not for his own citizens.

[Robert]

35 minutes ago, AlanRickman1946 said:

but if that is the case and Taiwan is paying for it then how come people are complaining that Biden has money for Taiwan and Ukraine but not for his own citizens.

I think he is giving money to Ukraine but Taiwan do buy old US weapons and pay a fortune so that is just misinformation and people just reading headlines without looking into it. China may sanction the US for selling to Taiwan which could cost them money if you look at it from that perspective I suppose.

[AlanRickman1946]

U.S. Aims to Turn Taiwan Into Giant Weapons Depot

Officials say Taiwan needs to become a “porcupine” with enough weapons to hold out if the Chinese military blockades and invades it, even if Washington decides to send troops.

 

 

[AlanRickman1946]

U.S. Aims to Turn Taiwan Into Giant Weapons Depot

Officials say Taiwan needs to become a “porcupine” with enough weapons to hold out if the Chinese military blockades and invades it, even if Washington decides to send troops.

Taiwanese military exercises in July. The United States has approved several weapons packages for the island.

Taiwanese military exercises in July. The United States has approved several weapons packages for the island.Credit...Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times

 

By Edward Wong and John Ismay
Oct. 5, 2022

WASHINGTON — American officials are intensifying efforts to build a giant stockpile of weapons in Taiwan after studying recent naval and air force exercises by the Chinese military around the island, according to current and former officials.

 

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The exercises showed that China would probably blockade the island as a prelude to any attempted invasion, and Taiwan would have to hold out on its own until the United States or other nations intervened, if they decided to do that, the current and former officials say.

 

But the effort to transform Taiwan into a weapons depot faces challenges. The United States and its allies have prioritized sending weapons to Ukraine, which is reducing those countries’ stockpiles, and arms makers are reluctant to open new production lines without a steady stream of long-term orders.

 

And it is unclear how China might respond if the United States accelerates shipments of weapons to Taiwan, a democratic, self-governing island that Beijing claims is Chinese territory.

 

 

U.S. officials are determining the quantity and types of weapons sold to Taiwan by quietly telling Taiwanese officials and American arms makers that they will reject orders for some large systems in favor of a greater number of smaller, more mobile weapons. The Biden administration announced on Sept. 2 that it had approved its sixth weapons package for Taiwan — a $1.1 billion sale that includes 60 Harpoon coastal antiship missiles. U.S. officials are also discussing how to streamline the sale-and-delivery process.

President Biden said last month that the United States is “not encouraging” Taiwan’s independence, adding, “That’s their decision.” Since 1979, Washington has had a policy of reassuring Beijing that it does not support independence. But China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, said in a speech at the Asia Society last month that the United States was undermining that position “by repeated official exchanges and arms sales, including many offensive weapons.”

The People’s Liberation Army of China carried out exercises in August with naval ships and fighter jets in zones close to Taiwan. It also fired ballistic missiles into the waters off Taiwan’s coast, four of which went over the island, according to Japan.

The Chinese military acted after Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House, visited Taiwan. But even before that, U.S. and Taiwanese officials had been more closely examining the potential for an invasion because Russia’s assault on Ukraine had made the possibility seem more real, though Chinese leaders have not explicitly stated a timeline for establishing rule over Taiwan.

 

The United States would not be able to resupply Taiwan as easily as Ukraine because of the lack of ground routes from neighboring countries. The goal now, officials say, is to ensure that Taiwan has enough arms to defend itself until help arrives. Mr. Biden said last month that U.S. troops would defend Taiwan if China were to carry out an “unprecedented attack” on the island — the fourth time he has stated that commitment and a shift from a preference for “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan among U.S. presidents.

Image

Exercises in Pingtung, Taiwan, in July. Two former defense officials wrote that Taiwan needs “a large number of small things” for distributed defense.
Exercises in Pingtung, Taiwan, in July. Two former defense officials wrote that Taiwan needs “a large number of small things” for distributed defense.

 

 

 

“Stockpiling in Taiwan is a very active point of discussion,” said Jacob Stokes, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security who advised Mr. Biden on Asia policy when he was vice president. “And if you have it, how do you harden it and how do you disperse it so Chinese missiles can’t destroy it?”

“The view is we need to lengthen the amount of time Taiwan can hold out on its own,” he added. “That’s how you avoid China picking the low-hanging fruit of its ‘fait accompli’ strategy — that they’ve won the day before we’ve gotten there, that is assuming we intervene.”

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. officials increasingly emphasize Taiwan’s need for smaller, mobile weapons that can be lethal against Chinese warships and jets while being able to evade attacks, which is central to so-called asymmetric warfare.

More on the Relations Between Asia and the U.S.

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“Shoot-and-scoot” types of armaments are popular with the Ukrainian military, which has used shoulder-fired Javelin and NLAW antitank guided missiles and Stinger antiaircraft missiles effectively against Russian forces. Recently, the Ukrainians have pummeled Russian troops with mobile American-made rocket launchers known as HIMARS.

To transform Taiwan into a “porcupine,” an entity bristling with armaments that would be costly to attack, American officials have been trying to steer Taiwanese counterparts toward ordering more of those weapons and fewer systems for a conventional ground war like M1 Abrams tanks.

Pentagon and State Department officials have also been speaking regularly about these issues since March with American arms companies, including at an industry conference on Taiwan this week in Richmond, Va. Jedidiah Royal, a Defense Department official, said in a speech there that the Pentagon was helping Taiwan build out systems for “an island defense against an aggressor with conventional overmatch.”

 

 

 

In a recent article, James Timbie, a former State Department official, and James O. Ellis Jr., a retired U.S. Navy admiral, said Taiwan needs “a large number of small things” for distributed defense, and that some of Taiwan’s recent purchases from the United States, including Harpoon and Stinger missiles, fit that bill. Taiwan also produces its own deterrent weapons, including minelayer ships, air defense missile systems and antiship cruise missiles.

 

They said Taiwan needs to shift resources away from “expensive, high-profile conventional systems” that China can easily destroy in an initial attack, though some of those systems, notably F-16 jets, are useful for countering ongoing Chinese fighter jet and ship activities in “gray zone” airspace and waters. The authors also wrote that “the effective defense of Taiwan” will require stockpiling ammunition, fuel and other supplies, as well as strategic reserves of energy and food.

 

Officials in the administration of Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan, say they recognize the need to stockpile smaller weapons but point out that there are significant lags between orders and shipments.

 

A Taiwanese AH-64 Apache helicopter during exercises last month. American officials have been trying to steer their Taiwanese counterparts away from systems meant for a conventional ground war.

“I think we’re moving in a high degree of consensus in terms of our priorities on the asymmetric strategy, but the speed does have to be accelerated,” Bi-khim Hsiao, the de facto Taiwanese ambassador in Washington, said in an interview.

 

 

 

Some American lawmakers have called for faster and more robust deliveries. Several senior senators are trying to push through the proposed Taiwan Policy Act, which would provide $6.5 billion in security assistance to Taiwan over the next four years and mandate treating the island as if it were a “major non-NATO ally.”

 

 

But Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said in an interview that weapons makers want to see predictability in orders before committing to building up production. Arms directors from the United States and more than 40 other nations met last week in Brussels to discuss long-term supply and production issues.

If China decides to establish a naval blockade around Taiwan, American officials would probably study which avenue of resupplying Taiwan — by sea or by air — would offer the least likelihood of bringing Chinese and American ships, aircraft and submarines into direct conflict.

 

One proposition would involve sending U.S. cargo planes with supplies from bases in Japan and Guam to Taiwan’s east coast. That way, any Chinese fighters trying to shoot them down would have to fly over Taiwan and risk being downed by Taiwanese warplanes.

“The sheer amount of materiel that would likely be needed in case of war is formidable, and getting them through would be difficult, though may be doable,” said Eric Wertheim, a defense consultant and author of “The Naval Institute Guide to Combat Fleets of the World.” “The question is: How much risk is China and the White House willing to take in terms of enforcing or breaking through a blockade, respectively, and can it be sustained?”

China has probably studied the strategic failure of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said, and the United States should continue to send the kinds of arms to Taiwan that will make either an amphibious invasion or an attack with long-range weapons much more difficult for China.

“The Chinese naval officers I’ve spoken to in years past have said they fear the humiliation that would result from any kind of failure, and this of course has the effect of them being less likely to take action if there is an increased risk of failure,” Mr. Wertheim said. “In essence, the success the Ukrainians are having is a message to the Chinese.”

 

Officials in the Biden administration are trying to gauge what moves would deter China without actually provoking greater military action.

Jessica Chen Weiss, a professor of government at Cornell University who worked on China policy this past year in the State Department, wrote on Twitter that Mr. Biden’s recent remarks committing U.S. troops to defending Taiwan were “dangerous.” She said in an interview that pursuing the porcupine strategy enhances deterrence but that taking what she deems symbolic steps on Taiwan’s diplomatic status does not.

“The U.S. has to make clear that the U.S. doesn’t have a strategic interest in having Taiwan being permanently separated from mainland China,” she said.

But other former U.S. officials praise Mr. Biden’s forceful statements, saying greater “strategic clarity” bolsters deterrence.

 

 

 

“President Biden has said now four times that we would defend Taiwan, but each time he says it someone walks it back,” said Harry B. Harris Jr., a retired admiral who served as commander of U.S. Pacific Command and ambassador to South Korea. “And I think that makes us as a nation look weak because who’s running this show? I mean, is it the president or is it his advisers?

 

“So maybe we should take him at his word,” Admiral Harris added. “Maybe he is serious about defending Taiwan.”

 

 

www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/politics/taiwan-biden-weapons-china.html

[Communion]

Pelosi with the midas touch Quick someone get her to endorse Trump!

 

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Communion

[Bosque]

Curiously enough, Kuomintang’s official policy is also “don’t get invaded by China and become a vassal state to an aggressive larger neighbor”. So literally nothing is going to change policy wise

[Communion]

18 minutes ago, Dephira said:

Curiously enough, Kuomintang’s official policy is---

..you mean the same KMT whose old-guard still think that they themselves will one-day rule as the one true China over not just Taiwan but.... the entire mainland? Sis, just take the L. 

 

This DOES largely mean the status quo will be unchanged from 2019, but that's why Nancy Pelosi walks away the biggest loser, purposefully seeking connections to the leader of the Pan-Green coalition whose entire message was "INDEPENDENCE NOW!" And yet it turns out most are apparently focused instead on bread and butter issues and living in de-facto, abstract independence, not trying to provoke China into a needless war that even America has signaled it's not going to invest itself into. "WELL THEY ALSO WILL NOT ACCEPT WAR WITH CH--"

 

[AlanRickman1946]

4 hours ago, Communion said:

Pelosi with the midas touch Quick someone get her to endorse Trump!

 

 

In 2018 the KMT (more pro China) won the local elections. But in 2019 the Hong Kong protests happened so in 2020 the Taiwanese got spooked and the DPP (less pro China) won the general elections.

[FreeXone]

China is a mess. Taiwan should be the least of their worries. 

[AlanRickman1946]

1 hour ago, Communion said:

..you mean the same KMT whose old-guard still think that they themselves will one-day rule as the one true China over not just Taiwan but.... the entire mainland? Sis, just take the L. 

 

This DOES largely mean the status quo will be unchanged from 2019, but that's why Nancy Pelosi walks away the biggest loser, purposefully seeking connections to the leader of the Pan-Green coalition whose entire message was "INDEPENDENCE NOW!" And yet it turns out most are apparently focused instead on bread and butter issues and living in de-facto, abstract independence, not trying to provoke China into a needless war that even America has signaled it's not going to invest itself into. "WELL THEY ALSO WILL NOT ACCEPT WAR WITH CH--"

 

John Mearsheimer who said that the war in Ukraine was America's fault for expanding NATO eastwards, said that part of the reason America arming Ukraine is useless is because

1. Ukraine is an existential threat to Russia not to the US.

2. It is pushing Russia towards China.

 

Mearsheimer said Russia is not a peer competitor, but China is. Therefore, the war in Ukraine will weaken Russia but strengthen China and China is much more dangerous to US hegemony than Russia.

 

Even Mearsheimer says that US would go to war over Taiwan.

[AlanRickman1946]

6th December 2022: 
-A group of Australian lawmakers has arrived in Taiwan, according to Taipei's foreign ministry, defying Beijing's warnings about the visit at a time of rising tensions over the self-ruled island. 
-Ministry spokeswoman Joanne Ou told reporters that “There is a group of bipartisan members of the parliament from Australia currently visiting Taiwan. They are already here.” 
-"We appreciate that the Australian parliament is very friendly to Taiwan," Ou said, describing Taipei-Canberra relations as "robust, diverse, and mutually beneficial." According to a spokesman for one delegation member, the group left Sunday for a five-day visit to Taiwan, risking China's ire just as relations between Beijing and Canberra appeared to be warming.

[AlanRickman1946]

US military vows ‘more lethal’ force in 2023 to deter Beijing attack on Taiwan

 

Pentagon envisions countering China’s ‘dangerous’ provocations that senior official likens to ‘driving with road rage in a school zone’

 

Beijing is believed to have no set plan for attacking Taiwan, with its timeline heavily dependent on US vigilance

 

 

Next year will be the most important in recent memory in transforming the US military to counter China’s increasingly assertive and coercive military behaviour in the Indo-Pacific region, deter in no uncertain terms a Taiwan attack and grapple with Beijing’s nuclear build-up, senior US military officials said on Thursday.

 

While the US firmly opposes Russia’s war in Ukraine, China remains America’s greatest military “pacing challenge”, particularly around Taiwan, and that will be the case for decades to come, added authors of the China Military Power Report released last week.

 

“2023 is likely to stand as the most transformative year in US force posture in the region in a generation,” said Ely Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defence for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs.

 

The US presence in the Indo-Pacific will be “more lethal, more mobile, more resilient and exactly reinforcing that kind of deterrence that we were talking about that make some of these rapid, low-cost invasions nearly impossible”, Ratner added.

 

 

 

President Xi Jinping has set forth three key benchmarks for the People’s Liberation Army. By 2027, the centenary of the PLA’s founding, it should be well advanced in its modernisation. By 2035, it should complete that program. And by 2049, it plans to be a world-class military force.

 

 

 

This has led military analysts and US defence officials to speculate that Xi could be preparing to invade Taiwan as early as 2027. But officials on Thursday said they believed nothing was set in stone and the timing on any attack on Taiwan would heavily depend on the vigilance of US forces.

 

 

 

“The urgency question that Xi Jinping is ready to push a button on 2027 and say ‘go’ no matter what, our answer to that is no,” Ratner said. “Our goal is to ensure that that is never easy for them to do rapidly or cost-free.”

 

China’s military ambitions are expanding as its forces extend their global reach, with aggressive aircraft carrier and cruiser building programmes, overseas bases, and a nuclear arsenal now estimated in the low 400s – a near doubling in two years – towards a projected 1,500 by 2035.

 

“They haven’t been transparent about the intent behind the sort of change and trajectory that’s leading them to these much larger numbers,” said Michael Chase, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for China. “They have been very reluctant to engage in discussions about strategic stability or strategic risk reduction issues.”

 

While the US and Russia are signatories to a treaty placing verifiable limits on nuclear weapons, China has balked at joining. According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Russia has a nuclear stockpile of about 4,477 weapons while the US has some 3,708 warheads.

 

 

 

US defence officials claimed Beijing has been less than cooperative in sharing information or its intentions and is doing little to prevent accidental conflict, as happened in 2001 when a US Navy EP-3 spy plane collided with a Chinese J-8 interceptor fighter aircraft. The Chinese pilot and aircraft were lost while the EP-3 was forced down on Hainan Island.

 

 

 

 

As tensions and sabre-rattling have escalated across the Indo-Pacific, other countries in the region have voiced concern over potential mishaps.

 

 

 

“Even our closest partners want us to be at least communicating with the PLA in a way that will prevent miscalculation, and other forms of inadvertent conflict,” said Ratner, speaking at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

 

“On the whole, the PLA is not yet willing or serious about trying to manage this competition in a way that we would expect a responsible or aspiring major power to do so,” he added. “And we think that’s a huge problem.”

 

American officials on Thursday said China’s response after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August was excessive. Beijing fired missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone, 22 Chinese jet fighters crossed the median line between Taiwan and the mainland, and 100 fighters and bombers deployed near the island.

 

 

 

But if the People’s Republic of China thinks this effort at intimidation will deter the US from patrolling in international waters, it is mistaken, the officials added.

 

“The concern that we have is that not only about what the PRC is saying, but what it is doing,” Chase said.

 

Pentagon bill includes US$10 billion in grants and loans for Taiwan arms sales

 

 

 

 

 

China views self-governing Taiwan as a breakaway province to be reunited by force if necessary. Few countries, including the US, recognise the island as an independent state. But Washington is required by law to support Taiwan’s military defence capability. On Tuesday, the Pentagon approved a US$430 million sale of military aircraft parts to Taipei.

 

 

 

Kathleen Hicks, US deputy defence secretary, on Thursday said American weapons shipments to Ukraine have not slowed armed shipments to Taiwan, which should bolster training and unconventional tactics to better defend itself against a far larger military.

 

“Taiwan needs to put its self-defence front and centre,” said Hicks. “There’s a lot that they can do themselves.”

 

The China Military Power Report, mandated by the US Congress and issued annually for the past two decades, is the Pentagon’s most comprehensive unclassified report detailing China’s defence capability and the US’ response.

 

Beijing on Tuesday slammed the most recent edition as gross speculation, a distortion and interference in its internal affairs. China is committed to peaceful development, a defensive military posture and defending the international order, said Senior Colonel Tan Kefei, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defence in Beijing.

 

The report “is the US’ old trick to hype up the so-called ‘Chinese military threat’”, Tan added. “China is strongly dissatisfied with and firmly opposed to the US’ move.”

 

 

 

At a separate event at the Cato Institute on Thursday, experts sought to tease out the actual size of the PLA budget. In March, Beijing announced an annual budget of 1.45 trillion yuan, or US$207.7 billion, although outside estimates peg the actual figure at anywhere between US$250 billion and $US600 billion.

 

The US House of Representatives on Thursday passed a 2023 US military budget totalling US$847 billion.

 

But military budgets are notoriously difficult to compare, even between Western nations with relatively transparent reporting. By any measure, China’s spending and capability are growing rapidly, analysts said.

 

Even American and British military budgets amount to an apples-to-bananas comparison, said Frederico Bartels of Pantheon Integrated Solutions. “When you get to China, it’s probably going to be, I don’t know, apples to chicken.”

 

How they choose to employ those resources is crucial for stability and international order, US officials said. Recently PLA jets have flown within 10 feet of US and allied aircraft jets, releasing flares and chaff and making other provocations – a pattern that has become more commonplace over the past year.

 

“This is really dangerous behaviour that I would liken to driving with road rage in a school zone,” Ratner said. “It is tempting a crisis that could have geopolitical and geoeconomic implications.”

 

 

 

 

 

[AlanRickman1946]

“2023 is likely to stand as the most transformative year in US force posture in the region in a generation,” said Ely Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defence for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs.

 

 

 

The US presence in the Indo-Pacific will be “more lethal, more mobile, more resilient and exactly reinforcing that kind of deterrence that we were talking about that make some of these rapid, low-cost invasions nearly impossible”, Ratner added