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Predictions for America in 2022 and 2024 thread


hurricane326
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Hello all, I thought it would be helpful to gather political predictions in a thread dedicated to them, rather than having them smattered throughout the various Civics section threads

 

Here are mine: 

 

2022 - Republicans will take the House and probably the Senate, but neither by enormous margins, particularly the latter. Democrats stand a much better chance at keeping the Senate than the House. Roe v Wade will be overturned, and House Democrats who use this as a factor in their campaigns will be more likely to be re-elected.

 

2024 - I think a lot of people underestimate the power of time. Situations with factors like inflation, stock markets, and gas prices can change quicker than expected, if they're expected at all in some cases. Being the biggest factors in today's climate, the upcoming two years will change approval rating and polling data for whomever is in office. This is not at all to underestimate the fear factor. Democrats have a solid footing on abortion rights, as do Republicans on whatever bs they peddle. 

 

As for the presidency, it will depend 1000% on whether or not Trump runs. If he does and is nominated, there are two distinct possibilities for the GOP. Either the party will fracture in two, as Trump calls for violence and labels anyone who disagrees a RINO (which at present includes Mitch McConnell, who despises Trump). In this case, a Democrat win is very likely. If the party does not fracture, he will still likely lose, as there will simply not be as many supporters as there were in 2020 and surely not in 2016, as he continues to call for violence and alienate other Congress members and their voters. 

 

If someone else is nominated for the GOP, namely DeSantis, the party will certainly not fracture and we could very well see him elected to office. Yikes. The Democrats will need to choose wisely for their candidate, which in two years could be Kamala, or perhaps not.

 

As for Biden, he will NOT run in 2024. He says he will to avoid being a placeholder. If he were to say right now that he wouldn't run his approval ratings would plummet even further. He wiill be 82 and exhausted. 

 

 

These are my thoughts. How about you?

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The best Democrats can hope for (and this is the absolute best case scenario) is to barely pull off the presidency by the skin of their teeth, because that senate map in 24……..yikes. I predict 2024 ends in 1 of 2 scenarios: A Republican trifecta, or republicans controlling congress while barely losing the presidency (I’m talking 270-268/272-266 kind of loss). Either way, neither sounds exciting whatsoever, and we can blame lots of reasons for that: Democrats being an incompetent shitshow of a political party, and Americans and our failed education system :cm:

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2022: Rs win the House, Ds keep the Senate (Fetterman and Kelly will stomp all over the MAGA idiots they are running against). 

2024: Biden wins if Trump runs, Biden probably wins as well if DeSantis runs since I don't see DeSantis generating massive enthusiast (he has no charisma and he won't be able to energize the white vote). 

 

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14 minutes ago, Brishka said:

2024: Biden wins if Trump runs, Biden probably wins as well if DeSantis runs since I don't see DeSantis generating massive enthusiast (he has no charisma and he won't be able to energize the white vote). 

This is some VERY wishful thinking imo. But optimism is currently lacking amongst the Dems so it's always appreciated

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4 minutes ago, hurricane326 said:

This is some VERY wishful thinking imo. But optimism is currently lacking amongst the Dems so it's always appreciated

Republicans are trying to pin the blame on Biden for the high CPI (while ignoring the fact that inflation is high around the world after russian terrorists invaded Ukraine). The far-left is also promoting this false narrative, shooting its own party in the foot, which is why Biden's approval rating is so low right now. 

However, inflation will likely peak in the following months, and Biden will go to Saudi Arabia to finally touch that glowing orb to bring down energy prices, so I don't think that it's going to be a bloodbath for the Democrats in November. 

It is still too early to make any concrete predictions about 2024 since Trump is currently facing a criminal investigation in Georgia (and there's a decent chance that he will be indicted). 

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1 minute ago, Brishka said:

However, inflation will likely peak in the following months

!!!

 

This is what many people on both sides neglect to take into account - these factors that reflect in polls/ratings are not permanent fixtures or how it will be forever

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Heavy red wave in both elections. Republicans own the presidency and Congress 2024. Strong wave of heavy-handed government bans on anything to do with LGBTQ+ in media and schools, potential rollback of gay marriage. Bans on abortion, extreme gerrymandering and erosion of voting rights for anyone who is not white and wealthy. 

 

Some gay ATRL users sit in the sewers where they are now allowed to reside and congratulate themselves for getting rid of Biden. 

Edited by Dephira
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7 minutes ago, Dephira said:

Heavy red wave in both elections. Republicans own the presidency and Congress 2024. Strong wave of heavy-handed government bans on anything to do with LGBTQ+ in media and schools, potential rollback of gay marriage. Bans on abortion, extreme gerrymandering and erosion of voting rights for anyone who is not white and wealthy. 

 

Some gay ATRL users sit in the sewers where they are now allowed to reside and congratulate themselves for getting rid of Biden. 

If this happens, the far-left is to blame for this. They want Republicans to take your away your rights just because Biden won't give them free stuff.  

Edited by Brishka
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8 minutes ago, Dephira said:

Heavy red wave in both elections. Republicans own the presidency and Congress 2024. Strong wave of heavy-handed government bans on anything to do with LGBTQ+ in media and schools, potential rollback of gay marriage. Bans on abortion, extreme gerrymandering and erosion of voting rights for anyone who is not white and wealthy. 

 

Some gay ATRL users sit in the sewers where they are now allowed to reside and congratulate themselves for getting rid of Biden. 

Nnnnn the accuracy 

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If Trump does not run, Desantis destroys Biden in 2024 and Desantis becomes the new Ronald Regan with 2 full terms. 

If Trump runs, it becomes a coin toss. A younger Republican with less baggage would have a better chance to win than Trump, but in this scenario Trump’s ego is too big and he sabotages the other GOP candidates and gets the nomination. Trump then spends his whole 2024 campaign declaring that he won the 2020 election and that Biden is an illegitimate president. Independents then have to choose which old man is less evil

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Republicans will win the House and a supermajority in the Senate. Democrats will blame progressives and decide they need to be even more conservative. 

 

Expecting the current Democratic Party to get anything done is pointless. The only good thing that can come from the next few elections is an actual Progressive Party being formed nationwide. 

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6 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Republicans will win the House and a supermajority in the Senate. Democrats will blame progressives and decide they need to be even more conservative. 

 

Expecting the current Democratic Party to get anything done is pointless. The only good thing that can come from the next few elections is an actual Progressive Party being formed nationwide. 

There's absolutely zero chance of them winning a supermajority. Early polling indicates that Democrats may actually retain their majority.      

:ahh::ahh::ahh:

Edited by Brishka
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Republicans win the House and Democrats hold the Senate in 2022. Trump or DeSantis win the Presidency in 2024 while Democrats hold either the House or the Senate. Obergefell will be overturned and concealed carry will be allowed nationwide regardless of state law from SCOTUS.

 

A federal ban on abortion remains the wild-card in 2026/28. Conservative states will start banning birth control if they haven't already from the trip laws post-Roe. 

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13 minutes ago, Vroom Vroom said:

If Trump does not run, Desantis destroys Biden in 2024 and Desantis becomes the new Ronald Regan with 2 full terms. 

If Trump runs, it becomes a coin toss. A younger Republican with less baggage would have a better chance to win than Trump, but in this scenario Trump’s ego is too big and he sabotages the other GOP candidates and gets the nomination. Trump then spends his whole 2024 campaign declaring that he won the 2020 election and that Biden is an illegitimate president. Independents then have to choose which old man is less evil

This is likely my prediction as well. Dems lose control of congress in 2024 no matter what (they have a decentish chance of holding the senate in 2022, but after that….yeah Goodluck). People forget: The suburbs hate trump with a passion (and they don’t like Biden either to be fair), but he will not be able to let go of 2020, and that just might be enough for Dems to barely hold the presidency, but that is their best case scenario and nothing more 

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8 minutes ago, Brishka said:

There's absolutely zero chance of them winning a supermajority. Early polling indicates that Democrats may actually retain their majority.      

:ahh::ahh::ahh:

Polling indicates that a supermajority for Republicans in 2025 is actually very possible and likely. It’s especially likely if the Dems lose most competitive races like they did in the “massive blue wave year” of 2018.

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Because it is America: 
 

2022: MAGA proves to be the song of the south. Trump will become a political martyr. Sensible Republicans will continue to be silenced by the far right extremists.

 

Biden will continue to roll over and take the blame for everything, instead of growing a pair. He needs to call out oil tycoons and do more than accept the narrative being sold.  Combined with the all or nothing attitude of the extreme left and you have people who lack compromise. 
 

Gun violence will continue to intensify as people scream about losing their rights. Because nothing can change when people don’t compromise. 
 

One side calls election fraud. The splintering fragments of America breakdown. Civil War probability about 40%. 
 

2023: Theatrics to ignite further party division. 

 

2024: Biden will most probably lose. If the Democratic Party is wise, they will challenge him in the primary with someone centralized. Bernie Sanders would not be that choice. However, it would be wise of him to run as an Independent.

 

In most scenarios, a Republican will win against Biden. Trump is their only surefire loss aside from trying to get someone like Cawthorne, Boebert, or Green elected. However, I fully can see Ivanka Trump being presented as a progressive party candidate with her brother as her VP. It will give them the title of first female President on the Republican ticket and racist old Republicans who wouldnt vote for a female otherwise, will be implored by the brother sister act. With their dad being given the martyr treatment if her gets sent to prison is high. 
 

Pardons will happen immediately and Democrats who stood up to them will be accused of treason and probably executed. The Supreme Court has a special place in their hearts for Trump. So now with an increased amount of power, he is able to further build his regime. 
 

If the country continues in the direction it is in, there is a 75% chance of a civil war. After election fraud is presented like a gift from Judas with the third lie. 
 

If I were to make predictions based on the world today. 



 


 

 

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32 minutes ago, Brishka said:

If this happens, the far-left is to blame for this. They want Republicans to take your away your rights just because Biden won't give them free stuff.  

The irony that you and beatly every person who says this nonsense probably live in a country with a generous welfare state and not America is not lost on anyone. :skull:

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America is d*omed from its core so making predictions is kinda useless 

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9 minutes ago, DatChickDoe said:

 

In most scenarios, a Republican will win against Biden. Trump is their only surefire loss aside from trying to get someone like Cawthorne, Boebert, or Green elected. However, I fully can see Ivanka Trump being presented as a progressive party candidate with her brother as her VP. 

 

I agreed with you until you got to this point. The Trump children wouldn’t even be able to win the nomination. The only way Ivanka is getting that close to the presidency is if Trump makes her his vp in 2024. Trump will want to make someone he trusts be his vp after he was “betrayed” by Pence. He may choose a woman or POC to be his vp so he isn’t deemed sexist or racist. 

Some potential trump loyalist vp picks include: 

Marsha Blackburn 

Sarah Palin 

Herschel Walker 

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15 minutes ago, Vroom Vroom said:

I agreed with you until you got to this point. The Trump children wouldn’t even be able to win the nomination. The only way Ivanka is getting that close to the presidency is if Trump makes her his vp in 2024. Trump will want to make someone he trusts be his vp after he was “betrayed” by Pence. He may choose a woman or POC to be his vp so he isn’t deemed sexist or racist. 

Some potential trump loyalist vp picks include: 

Marsha Blackburn 

Sarah Palin 

Herschel Walker 

I hope you are right about the Trump children. There is an uneasinesses with them. 


Your list is good too. What about Candace Owen? She would make him look “doubly” good as she is a black woman, but his followers love her. She will be 35 in 2024. 

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massive red wave and trump wins by a lot :dancehall3:

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2 hours ago, DatChickDoe said:

I hope you are right about the Trump children. There is an uneasinesses with them. 


Your list is good too. What about Candace Owen? She would make him look “doubly” good as she is a black woman, but his followers love her. She will be 35 in 2024. 

Candace Owen is not a politician. 
Over 90% of past vps have been governors or senators. If Walker doesn’t win his senate sit, he is no longer viable. 
Sarah is interesting because she is a former Governor and is currently running for Alaska’s one house seat. It is a crowded field, but Trump chose to endorse her. 
I thought about adding Tim Scott, but he has went against Trump before and probably wouldn’t be deemed loyal enough 

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In regard to Congress and the Presidency only:

2022:

House: Republicans will take it. If this somehow stays Democrat that would be a miracle or something extraordinary happens in the next few months before election day to turn Democrats around

 

Senate: I think it will stay 50/50 honestly as much as some are calling for disaster. Don't get me wrong, I think it is still VERY possible the dems can lose the Senate, even by a good amount of seats, but I think for the Senate it is in a unique place even though Dems themselves are in a very bad place right now. Particularly in close elections I think NV will go Republican, Arizona will stay Dem, GA and PA will go Dem, Wisconsin will be Republican, and otherwise things will probably stay the way they are. I live in Ohio and I think Tim Ryan actually has a better chance than many think he does. He is very popular and the other candidate is not well liked and sorta extremist who is overly relying on using Trump's name without being Trump. But in an election heavily favoring republicans in an ever growing republican state that used to be more swing state it will for sure be an uphill battle for Tim Ryan. As sad as it is, his anti-asian sentiment he has given off may help him steal moderates :rip:

 

2024:

Congress: This is far too hard to predict. I need to see the 2022 results first and as always it will depend how the country is at that time, what have Democrats done (if anything, which I doubt it) by then, how are political tensions, and if Republicans take Congress what will they have done if anything, and more. 

 

Presidency: This is also extremely hard to predict even working under the assumption Biden runs again. It will heavily depend on if Trump is the candidate or not. And much like the conditions stated about Congress, the same applies here. If America continues on the path it has been on of continually deteriorating and every day Americans keep struggling, Biden's only chance is to be up against a truly awful candidate. If by then things are okay or even by some miracle good, he will probably be fine unless Republicans have an amazing candidate. 

Assuming it is Biden vs. Trump I would say Trump would only win if at that time Democrats have not done anything substantial and America has only deteriorated more and more till then. If things end up in an okay to good state I think Biden would barely survive on flashing about January 6, impeachment, all of Trump's wrongdoings, COVID, fear mongering of I am not Trump, and highlighting any of the things they did that helped bring them back to that okay to good state. 

Assuming it is Biden vs. Desantis, this one would be tricky. If the country is not doing well Biden will be completely demolished most likely. I could see Desantis getting even as high as 330 electoral votes. If the country is in an okay state at the time and Desantis isn't too extreme and manages to be appealing to moderates I can see him still winning by a more nominal margin, something maybe like Trump or Biden won by in 2016 and 2020. If by some miracle the country is doing well and Desantis goes too extreme and turns off moderates Biden will probably be fine. 

 

I could go into more all day but those are some general predictions and thoughts

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