movie Wicked (2024) | Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande | RT: 90% MC: 73

[Cain]

On 12/18/2024 at 12:30 AM, blackoutbritney said:

So annoyed at how low the international #'s are I wonder why. If this performed how most films do internationally this could've had a shot at 1B

Wait it's not going to do 1B?? This feels kinda huge 

[Eóghan]

1 hour ago, Cain said:

Wait it's not going to do 1B?? This feels kinda huge 

movies do 80% of their box office run in the first month. it's been a month now and it's at 500M. 

[genio]

2 hours ago, Eóghan said:

movies do 80% of their box office run in the first month. it's been a month now and it's at 500M. 

It's close to $550m though, probably be around or pass the mark, this weekend. $600m finish before the year-end? Let's see how it performs on the Holidays, the competition is getting heavier with Mufasa and Sonic 3! 

 

 

Edited Friday at 11:55 AM by genio

[Eternium]

4 hours ago, Uncatena said:

Don't forget that the sing-along screenings are happening next week, I feel like that will give it another small boost

Kids will also start winter break after today and a lot of working Americans will be off until January 6th. Expect to see large gains in the box office all around and then a steep decline starting January 6th, where Wicked will probably start being under $1M daily.

1 hour ago, genio said:

It's close to $550m though, probably be around or pass the mark, this weekend. $600m finish before the year-end? Let's see how it performs on the Holidays, the competition is getting heavier with Mufasa and Sonic 3! 

 

 

Luckily for Wicked, Mufasa is underperforming and Sonic 3 is going to be frontloaded to a degree. 
 

Wicked For Good is the film that will suffer much more from competition since Avatar 3 will drop during its run.

4 hours ago, Cain said:

Wait it's not going to do 1B?? This feels kinda huge 

Broadway adaptations never get close to $1B. Before Wicked, the records were as follows:

 

Domestic - Grease - $190,071,103

International - Mamma Mia - $467,093,434

Worldwide - Mamma Mia - $611,452,132

 

Wicked currently holds the domestic title now with $367,951,215. It took 46 years for a film to surpass Grease. That's insanely historic that Wicked, a female-lead film with a runtime of 2 hours and 40 minutes, could do it  

[Tangane]

A month has passed and I'm still playing the soundtrack on loop!

If there was a sing-along screening in France, I think I'd go!

[V$.]

 

[AlanRickman1946]

 

[monologueNacafe]

I've seen this movie 4 times lol

[Breathin]

On 12/19/2024 at 10:40 PM, Eternium said:

This is not remotely possible. For comparison's sake, A Star Is Born (2018) had a production cost of $36M but the studio spent $229M total. You are placing print and ad spending ridiculously low, especially for a movie with Oscars potential. ASIB had a $110M spend for marketing and Wicked blew them out of the water - I'd be shocked if they were below $130M. 
 

Also, your splits are wrong. Domestically, distributors get 50% of the gross. International gross is 40% (with 60% going to the theaters). China's box office is usually 30%, though some distributors have different deals (notably Disney). 

No, the costs sound right. Theater grosses are only a portion of the gross.

 

A good example, again from ASIB:

Global Theater Revenue (for the studio): $198M

WW Home Entertainment (DVDs, BluRay, digital, VOD): $69.1M

Global TV Net (Streaming/TV rights): $140M

 

ASIB was a theater hit but made less than half of its money from theaters. My prediction is that Wicked will have a revenue of around $300M from theaters, Home Entertainment around $80M and Global TV Net around $140M. That'll be $520M out of the $700M spend before the second film even drops.

 

That excludes merchandise and soundtrack revenue.

There is no proof that Wicked spent more than 150M on marketing budget, show me receipts instead of bringing another movie for a comparison. We've only got estimates, which most place it at the 140-150M range, equalling the production budget.

Also the split is s 50-60% range domestically, however given its a popular movie and demand, it would be more likely the studio keeps 60% vs 50%, which usually happens when a movie has been in theatre's for a while, so the split is made for even for the theatre's. 

[R.E.M.]

will Wicked surpass Mama Mia worldwide gross? I want them to snatch that record

[publikcitizen]

41 minutes ago, R.E.M. said:

will Wicked surpass Mama Mia worldwide gross? I want them to snatch that record

I think it will 

[Eternium]

5 hours ago, Breathin said:

There is no proof that Wicked spent more than 150M on marketing budget, show me receipts instead of bringing another movie for a comparison. We've only got estimates, which most place it at the 140-150M range, equalling the production budget.

Also the split is s 50-60% range domestically, however given its a popular movie and demand, it would be more likely the studio keeps 60% vs 50%, which usually happens when a movie has been in theatre's for a while, so the split is made for even for the theatre's. 

Studio spend is not just production budget and marketing.

 

Barbie

Production Budget: $145M

Print & Ads: $175M

Residuals & Other Distribution Expenses:  $64M

Participations: $175M

Total Expenses: $588M

 

Barbie's production budget and marketing were only $320M, but the film cost the studio $588M. Deadline has already reported Wicked had a production budget of $150M and a marketing & ads budget of $150M. The two films combined will cost $700M at the very least, which is not a bad thing. The films are smashing and will be ridiculously profitable, even before adding in the soundtracks and merchandise.
 

Also, you're just guessing that Wicked is getting 60%. Do you have a source? 

3 hours ago, R.E.M. said:

will Wicked surpass Mama Mia worldwide gross? I want them to snatch that record

Easily. Mamma Mia is at $611M globally. Wicked is going to be around $570M by the Sunday update (when international grosses update for the week). With Christmas and New Year's coming and two more months in theaters (along with the Japanese run), it's impossible for Wicked to not surpass Mamma Mia unless it somehow gets pulled from theaters.

[Relampago.]

9 hours ago, monologueNacafe said:

I've seen this movie 4 times lol

Literally saw it in an empty theatre last night for my 4th time and I'll probably see it a 5th time for the sing along version lol

 

Its just such a feel good, comfort movie for me

[Lovett]

I'm taking my parents to see this on Monday night. They love musicals, I can't wait for them to see it!

[Jude]

Report this thread if you haven't yet. 

 

 

 

[Jude]

Wicked beats Moana 2 on a Friday for the first time. See when you have great legs!

 

 

[bjorn]

10 minutes ago, Jude said:

Report this thread if you haven't yet. 

 

 

 

Reporting for what? Did I break any rules or what ffs. This forum is getting worse by the day. 

[V$.]

5 hours ago, Jude said:

Wicked beats Moana 2 on a Friday for the first time. See when you have great legs!

 

 

[allforyou]

I watched the movie yesterday in the theater and it was so GOOD  The entire cast truly is fantastic on it and even though it's almost 3 hours long it goes by so fast.

The music is fantastic too, I've had Defying Gravity stuck in my mind since yesterday

[kimberly]

officially leapfrogging Moana 2 in domestic weekend projections, as Moana falls 1-4 while Wicked drops 2-3.

 

 

see when you have legs...

 

 

[NoAngelus]

On 12/18/2024 at 12:30 AM, blackoutbritney said:

So annoyed at how low the international #'s are I wonder why. If this performed how most films do internationally this could've had a shot at 1B

Wizard of Oz is simply not a global thing, it's mostly US/English speaking markets thing like Beetlejuice, Twisters or Ferris Bueller, for example.

 

Not to mention it is based on a Broadway musical? The rest of the world is not even familiar with that. 

[blackoutbritney]

31 minutes ago, NoAngelus said:

Wizard of Oz is simply not a global thing, it's mostly US/English speaking markets thing like Beetlejuice, Twisters or Ferris Bueller, for example.

 

Not to mention it is based on a Broadway musical? The rest of the world is not even familiar with that. 

I realize that now it just seemed like it was heading in the direction of 1B with presale and first weekend 

[Stuart]

Sing with me, Lions 

 

 

 

 

[Jude]

 

 

 

[Eternium]

On 12/21/2024 at 5:19 PM, Jude said:

Report this thread if you haven't yet. 

 

 

 

Baby, just go in there and clock. And when Deadline posts its most profitable films of 2024 in May and Wicked is at #5, it'll be a kii. Only Disney movies and Despicable Me were able to outdo Wicked, which is insane.

On 12/21/2024 at 4:06 PM, Lovett said:

I'm taking my parents to see this on Monday night. They love musicals, I can't wait for them to see it!

I'm taking 9 family members on 12/30. I absolutely can't wait. I went and saw it with like 12 friends and everyone was just so happy with the film.

1 hour ago, Jude said:

 

 

 

It's hard to foresee because theater dates aren't populating yet and you can't buy advance tickets right now. I'm wondering when they'll start putting up singalong tickets for sale.