movie Wicked (2024) | Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande | RT: 90% MC: 73

[wehavetostan]

5 hours ago, KingWitch said:

That seems awfully high,where is this figure from? Even if it's both movies and includes production plus marketing budget it just looks way too high .

it’s incorrect. They spent $300 million

[genio]

18 minutes ago, wehavetostan said:

it's incorrect. They spent $300 million

I don't think it is.

 

Other $300m-$350m must come from marketing and production costs (for the pop up dolls for example), money for the soundtrack -> promo for that as well. 

 

Maybe those $700m are a bit over the top, but it's definitely not just $300m. That's how much both movies cost to produce and film ($150m each) only aka their budget. 

 

 

[judasmonster]

 

 

she really acted, sang live, and vocal produced the soundtrack for this movie…its just unreal, there is no one else that could have done this role on a level that she did

 

[V$.]

 

 

Bye Moana

[Lovett]

 

[ariananext]

I lost count 

 

 

[Thuggin]

35 minutes ago, ariananext said:

I lost count 

 

 

Another one, thank you

 

[blackoutbritney]

So annoyed at how low the international #'s are I wonder why. If this performed how most films do internationally this could've had a shot at 1B

[kimberly]

6 minutes ago, blackoutbritney said:

So annoyed at how low the international #'s are I wonder why. If this performed how most films do internationally this could've had a shot at 1B

people don't know what a "Wicked" is internationally. it was expected that this would perform somewhat poorly abroad, especially in the non-English speaking countries.

 

Ariana Grande's name is probably helping a bit with the international numbers, they could have been much worse tbh.

[blackoutbritney]

5 minutes ago, kimberly said:

people don't know what a "Wicked" is internationally. it was expected that this would perform somewhat poorly abroad, especially in the non-English speaking countries.

 

Ariana Grande's name is probably helping a bit with the international numbers, they could have been much worse tbh.

Yeah that makes sense I just thought it'd be a bit higher than it is at least 50% of profits like most movies this would've been secured $900 mill

[Eternium]

20 hours ago, KingWitch said:

That seems awfully high,where is this figure from? Even if it's both movies and includes production plus marketing budget it just looks way too high .

https://screenrant.com/wicked-part-1-2-movie-budget-universal-record/
 

Studio spend is well over $350M on production budgets. With such a massive licensing and recording process, it's not surprising at all that a two-part film had a spend of $700M.

 

For comparison's sake, The Lion King (2019) had a $260M net production cost but cost the studio $621M total. 

15 hours ago, wehavetostan said:

it's incorrect. They spent $300 million

How would that even be remotely possible? Do you have any idea how much Promo and A&R costs? ASIB had a $36M production cost but print & ads were $110M. Then you get things like video costs, participations, residuals and interest. You couldn't possibly make two films with $150M production budgets each off of just $300M. That's just not possible.

 

Try reading a sample Deadline article and it will help you understand film revenue:

https://deadline.com/2020/04/the-lion-king-movie-profit-2019-jon-favreau-1202916432/

3 hours ago, blackoutbritney said:

So annoyed at how low the international #'s are I wonder why. If this performed how most films do internationally this could've had a shot at 1B

It's a musical. They are historically very low unless it's an animated family film. For Broadway based films, this is a massive smash and it's still climbing.

[Eternium]

Anyway, for the BB200:

 

Week 1 - 139,000

Week 2 - 108,000 (247,000)

Week 3 - 74,000 (321,000)

 

Week 4 Projections - 64,000 (385,000)

The top soundtrack of 2023 was Barbie with 670k. I don't have data for 2024 yet, but Wicked has an excellent shot to be #1 on the year end for 2025  

[Evans]

Yeah, Wicked isn't very well known internationally. Add to that the fact that in many countries they're removing the original language versions and only leaving the dubbed ones, which doesn't catch the attention of Ari's fans or people who know the Broadway show to watch it repeatedly.

 

For part 2 they need to promote more overseas. Some cute interviews for Asia and Latin America would be nice. 

[Jude]

My final gross prediction 

 

$480-500M dom

$220-240M int

 

$700M-740M WW gross

[Jude]

 

 

 

With Sonic and Mufasa taking Moana 2's audience, I think it's safe to say Wicked will stay at #3 in the domestic gross ranking of 2024. $500M dom finish is still attainable.

 

 

Edited Thursday at 01:53 AM by Jude

[eclipsed]

Even before I saw the gigantic press tour I thought this would be another barbie but it kinda tanked ww. I guess you have to take into the fact that it's a musical, others have also said wicked was kinda local already and maybe the runtime hurt it as well idk

[genio]

1 hour ago, eclipsed said:

Even before I saw the gigantic press tour I thought this would be another barbie but it kinda tanked ww. I guess you have to take into the fact that it's a musical, others have also said wicked was kinda local already and maybe the runtime hurt it as well idk

It's getting closer to $200m WW and $600m in total, that's more than fantastic, especially considering the fact that the movie hasn't even been out for a month. 

 

I guess this can end up anywhere between $650m to $750m now, depending on Japan and how the response will be during the holidays in 1 week. 

 

 

[Breathin]

Sure, they could have been granted a budget of 700M, doesn't mean they spent all that.

Right now it's confirmed that both films cost 300M total.

Marketing for first film is around 75-100M. 

Total budget is at 400 right now. 

Depending on how much they want to spend on next campaign will reveal how much they spent to make both films + market them.

Considering its international gross, they could spend a little extra to market it better internationally, but I don't see them spending anywhere over 150M. Total budget may cap at 550M with leeway for an additional 25-50M for potential reshoots, distribution and merchandise. 

First film cost 250M total, it needs 500-600M to break even on a rough scale. It's at 531M, I would say it's a safe bet it'll end with roughly 650-700M depending on holiday revenue. It's definitely a success, and looking forward to see how much it makes on media/streaming.

Side note: Studio's make more (60%) domestically vs (50%) internationally, and as low as 25% in china. So it's better for the studio that it's thriving domestically. (275M revenue based on how much studio would earn from domestic + international sales, it basically broke-even at this point imo)

[Mikeymoonshine]

Yeah I think it will do more than 700m total but probably not make it to 800m (unless it has really really good legs) the hype does feel like it's dying down a bit now.  

 

Also I feel like sometimes movie fans inflate the cost of films. Movie musicals can do well but only Disney have been able to hit 1 billion with them. Doing more than 500 million is huge for a musical so it would be incredibly dumb to spend so much you wouldn't be in the black grossing that. I know it was pretty obvious Wicked would be big and it's a 2 parter but it must be in profit by now. 

[Aiya]

So, is Ariana at risk not to be nominated at BAFTA, after London critics snub?

[Eternium]

12 hours ago, Breathin said:

Sure, they could have been granted a budget of 700M, doesn't mean they spent all that.

Right now it's confirmed that both films cost 300M total.

Marketing for first film is around 75-100M. 

Total budget is at 400 right now. 

Depending on how much they want to spend on next campaign will reveal how much they spent to make both films + market them.

Considering its international gross, they could spend a little extra to market it better internationally, but I don't see them spending anywhere over 150M. Total budget may cap at 550M with leeway for an additional 25-50M for potential reshoots, distribution and merchandise. 

First film cost 250M total, it needs 500-600M to break even on a rough scale. It's at 531M, I would say it's a safe bet it'll end with roughly 650-700M depending on holiday revenue. It's definitely a success, and looking forward to see how much it makes on media/streaming.

Side note: Studio's make more (60%) domestically vs (50%) internationally, and as low as 25% in china. So it's better for the studio that it's thriving domestically. (275M revenue based on how much studio would earn from domestic + international sales, it basically broke-even at this point imo)

This is not remotely possible. For comparison's sake, A Star Is Born (2018) had a production cost of $36M but the studio spent $229M total. You are placing print and ad spending ridiculously low, especially for a movie with Oscars potential. ASIB had a $110M spend for marketing and Wicked blew them out of the water - I'd be shocked if they were below $130M. 
 

Also, your splits are wrong. Domestically, distributors get 50% of the gross. International gross is 40% (with 60% going to the theaters). China's box office is usually 30%, though some distributors have different deals (notably Disney). 

1 hour ago, Mikeymoonshine said:

Yeah I think it will do more than 700m total but probably not make it to 800m (unless it has really really good legs) the hype does feel like it's dying down a bit now.  

 

Also I feel like sometimes movie fans inflate the cost of films. Movie musicals can do well but only Disney have been able to hit 1 billion with them. Doing more than 500 million is huge for a musical so it would be incredibly dumb to spend so much you wouldn't be in the black grossing that. I know it was pretty obvious Wicked would be big and it's a 2 parter but it must be in profit by now. 

No, the costs sound right. Theater grosses are only a portion of the gross.

 

A good example, again from ASIB:

Global Theater Revenue (for the studio): $198M

WW Home Entertainment (DVDs, BluRay, digital, VOD): $69.1M

Global TV Net (Streaming/TV rights): $140M

 

ASIB was a theater hit but made less than half of its money from theaters. My prediction is that Wicked will have a revenue of around $300M from theaters, Home Entertainment around $80M and Global TV Net around $140M. That'll be $520M out of the $700M spend before the second film even drops.

 

That excludes merchandise and soundtrack revenue.

[Mystic Warrior]

17 minutes ago, Eternium said:

This is not remotely possible. For comparison's sake, A Star Is Born (2018) had a production cost of $36M but the studio spent $229M total. You are placing print and ad spending ridiculously low, especially for a movie with Oscars potential. ASIB had a $110M spend for marketing and Wicked blew them out of the water - I'd be shocked if they were below $130M. 

Variety has reported that the marketing budget for Part One is around $150m, so definitely not below $130m! 

[Evans]

I've already seen this movie four times in theaters  it has so much replay value. It's going to do amazing numbers on streaming 

[Eternium]

5 hours ago, Mystic Warrior said:

Variety has reported that the marketing budget for Part One is around $150m, so definitely not below $130m! 

For sure. I think fans are lowballing the budget to claim that the movie was a big success, but it doesn't need that in the slightest. The whole project had a $700M budget and it's going to make $200M+ in profit alone before they even get into merchandising and the soundtrack. 
 

I don't think people grasp how massive this is. While I don't think you can directly compare Wicked and Grease just because of how different the market is now, Wicked will easily pass Grease for the most profitable musical film ever. The closest we've seen since Grease was Mamma Mia.

[Uncatena]

Don't forget that the sing-along screenings are happening next week, I feel like that will give it another small boost