movie Avatar: The Way of Water | Billions: 2 | Oscar Noms: 4 | Best Picture Noms: 1

[BNF91]

Better news- China, with its run wrapping up in a few days is showing spectacular legs. Tuesday is +12% from the last, with $2.9M. Maoyan is now projecting a $241M finish, up from $231M! 

 

It has about 5 days left until it's showtimes are decimated by the onslaught of Chinese films being released for the Chinese New Year. It will have only about 3 to 10 showtimes a day, down from nearly 6000 showtimes on its last day of wide release (Jan 21st). 

 

But after the holiday its showtimes could (and should) increase. 

[mystery]

24 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

Better news- China, with its run wrapping up in a few days is showing spectacular legs. Tuesday is +12% from the last, with $2.9M. Maoyan is now projecting a $241M finish, up from $231M! 

 

It has about 5 days left until it's showtimes are decimated by the onslaught of Chinese films being released for the Chinese New Year. It will have only about 3 to 10 showtimes a day, down from nearly 6000 showtimes on its last day of wide release (Jan 21st). 

 

But after the holiday its showtimes could (and should) increase. 

241m in China would be incredible, it is frustrating to think about what its gross could have been without everything that went down.

[Monster Megamind]

13 hours ago, mystery said:

Here are the final global trajectories for the movie:

If it kept the current international/domestic split: 

69.9% for international and 30.1% for domestic 
----------------------------
2,425b with 729m domestic - end of its domestic range
2,400b with 722m domestic
2,375b with 714m domestic
2,350b with 707m domestic
----------------------------
2,325b with 699m domestic 
2,300b with 692m domestic 
2,275b with 684m domestic 
2,250b with 677m domestic - optimal target when taking into account No Way Home domestic
2,225b with 669m domestic
2,200b with 662m domestic - outgrosses Titanic
2,175b with 654m domestic - domestic floor
---------------------------- 
2,150b with 647m domestic 
2,125b with 639m domestic 
2,100b with 632m domestic 
2,075b with 624m domestic - outgrosses Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2,050b with 617m domestic - outgrosses Avengers: Infinity War
2,025b with 609m domestic 
2,000b with 602m domestic
----------------------------

If the international/domestic split returned to what it usually is it: 

70.5% for international and 29.5% for domestic 
----------------------------
2,475b with 730m domestic - end of its domestic range
2,450b with 722m domestic
2,425b with 715m domestic 
2,400b with 708m domestic
2,375b with 700m domestic
----------------------------
2,350b with 693m domestic
2,325b with 685m domestic 
2,300b with 678m domestic - optimal target when taking into account No Way Home domestic
2,275b with 671m domestic 
2,250b with 663m domestic 
2,225b with 656m domestic - domestic floor
----------------------------
2,200b with 649m domestic 
2,175b with 641m domestic - outgrosses Titanic
2,150b with 634m domestic 
2,125b with 626m domestic 
2,100b with 619m domestic 
2,075b with 612m domestic - outgrosses Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2,050b with 604m domestic - outgrosses Avengers: Infinity War
2,025b with 597m domestic 
2,000b with 590m domestic
----------------------------

Domestic share will increase as the weeks go on.

[Roberto]

So it will be top 4 sooner than later. 

The top 6 having 2 Avengers and 2 Avatar tho. 

[GraceRandolph]

 

 

Time to update the thread title.

 

[mystery]

11 hours ago, Monster Megamind said:

Domestic share will increase as the weeks go on.

I don't see a reason why that would happen. It has been 70% - 30%  its whole run and international numbers will stay stable like they have been when US eventually collapses.

Edited January 18, 2023 by mystery

[Monster Megamind]

1 minute ago, mystery said:

I don't see a reason why that would happen. It has been 70% - 30%  its whole run and international numbers will stay stable like they have been when US eventually collapses.

The movie will have more staying power in English speaking countries.

[mystery]

4 minutes ago, Monster Megamind said:

The movie will have more staying power in English speaking countries.

I don't see where you are getting that from as the movie has been a lot more successful and leggier in non English speaking countries. If anything I predict the domestic share to decrease even.

Edited January 18, 2023 by mystery

[tootight49]

Okay, I eat the crow 

[BNF91]

Down 61% to $2.7M Tuesday domestic. Kids are back in school so big drops are expected for family oriented films today. Puss in Boots 2 down 73%. Should have decent Wednesday and Thursday and head for $21M minimum this weekend. $600M+ by end of the weekend. 

 

$700M looking less likely. Range is prob $665-680M. Still amazing total. 

Edited January 18, 2023 by BNF91

[mystery]

1 minute ago, BNF91 said:

Down 61% to $2.7M Tuesday domestic. Kids are back in school so big drops are expected for family oriented films today. Puss in Boots 2 down 73%. Should have decent Wednesday and Thursday and head for $21M minimum this weekend. $600M+ by end of the weekend. 

I am definitely seeing it get very close to 700m in the US in the end.

[X~MoviePoP]

As long as it passes 2 billion, thats all that matters

 

[mystery]

11 minutes ago, X~MoviePoP said:

As long as it passes 2 billion, thats all that matters

 

Highest grossing films of all-time:

1. Avatar - 2.922b
2. Avengers: Endgame - 2.797b
3. Titanic - 2.187b
4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 2.068b
5. Avengers: Infinity War - 2.048b
6. (+1) Avatar: The Way of Water - 1.928b
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home - 1.921b
8. Jurassic World - 1.671b
9. The Lion King - 1.656b
10. The Avengers - 1.518b

It should be at 1.950b with Wednesday and Thursday gross, the weekend will bring to around 2.020b with Infinity War and The Force Awakens going down Monday - Thursday, by January 30th it will hit 2.1b.

[GraceRandolph]

8 hours ago, mystery said:

Highest grossing films of all-time:

1. Avatar - 2.922b
2. Avengers: Endgame - 2.797b
3. Titanic - 2.187b
4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 2.068b
5. Avengers: Infinity War - 2.048b
6. (+1) Avatar: The Way of Water - 1.928b
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home - 1.921b
8. Jurassic World - 1.671b
9. The Lion King - 1.656b
10. The Avengers - 1.518b

It should be at 1.950b with Wednesday and Thursday gross, the weekend will bring to around 2.020b with Infinity War and The Force Awakens going down Monday - Thursday, by January 30th it will hit 2.1b.

[X~MoviePoP]

1 hour ago, GraceRandolph said:

[Anye]

11 hours ago, mystery said:

Highest grossing films of all-time:

1. Avatar - 2.922b
2. Avengers: Endgame - 2.797b
3. Titanic - 2.187b
4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 2.068b
5. Avengers: Infinity War - 2.048b
6. (+1) Avatar: The Way of Water - 1.928b
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home - 1.921b
8. Jurassic World - 1.671b
9. The Lion King - 1.656b
10. The Avengers - 1.518b

It should be at 1.950b with Wednesday and Thursday gross, the weekend will bring to around 2.020b with Infinity War and The Force Awakens going down Monday - Thursday, by January 30th it will hit 2.1b.

Top 5 or or even Top 4 soon 

[Donquizote]

Crazy to think that half of Endgame total gross came from opening weekend

Glad that TWOW is so consistent and still doing well at box office.

[Donquizote]

Babylon grossed only $68,697 on Tuesday with average per theater of $101

I wonder why some pundits still think Margot will get nominated

Wait i meant to post this in other thread

Edited January 19, 2023 by Donquizote
edit

[tootight49]

Predic:

Fri - 5M

Sat - 11M

Sun - 6M

W/e - 22M 🤞 

[mystery]

Should hit 2b on Saturday then.

[Bloodflowers.]

C'mon, just hit $2B so we can celebrate already

[X~MoviePoP]

Hmmm. Yah 2.1 or 2.15 seems like the likely end to me. Bcs of movies coming out soon

[Baby Judas]

I just want this to secure the 3rd spot of the all time list.

[mystery]

23 minutes ago, X~MoviePoP said:

Hmmm. Yah 2.1 or 2.15 seems like the likely end to me. Bcs of movies coming out soon

It will hit at least 2.2b before Ant-Man comes out.

[Reb'l Rêveur]

coming for #3 all-time