movie Avatar: The Way of Water | Billions: 2 | Oscar Noms: 4 | Best Picture Noms: 1

[Gaia]

It’s a 3 hour movie. It literally wouldn’t debut with $250M because it can’t spam movie slots

[RobynYoBank]

17 minutes ago, Gaia said:

It’s a 3 hour movie. It literally wouldn’t debut with $250M because it can’t spam movie slots

It's only 10 minutes longer than Endgame which debuted with $357M.

[Jotham]

I liked it but the first one was so much better.

• The movie introduced way too many characters. I felt so unattached to Jake's children because there were just so many of them. The character deaths in the first one (Tsu'tey, Grace, Trudey) all felt impactful but the death of one of the sons in this movie didn't bear much weight.
• I wish the movie actually tried to close certain arcs (Kiri's father and Quaritch's fate) instead of leaving them ambiguous for a sequel. The first film's plot was so simple but cohesive so it felt like a complete movie, in contrast this movie is three hours long but leaves so many questions unanswered
• Spider was really annoying
• Best part of the film for me is easily the worldbuilding with the Metkayina Clan

[Gaia]

9 minutes ago, RobynYoBank said:

It's only 10 minutes longer than Endgame which debuted with $357M.

Endgame is a superhero movie that isn’t sold based on visuals. No one wants to watch avatar in 2D on a small screen. 
 

people are basically competing for slots to see it in 3D imax and the likes. 

[P!NK2LOVE]

This was sooo much better than the first one omfg if you think otherwise I’m convinced that you’re actually, in fact, a pathological LIAR.

[DONTYELLATME]

It was better than the first but yeah it deserves criticism for a white savior story and having indigenous characters played by white majority cast. Yeah it’s blue aliens but I mean you have to be blind to not see that the Navi are inspired by indigenous peoples  pretty movie but basic story and the dialogue felt outdated and cheesy. It did have good emotional moments and action. Solid movie just for visuals alone. 

 

ok so I googled and he did cast POC as the water tribe but if you see the movie, they didn’t actually do much or speak in the movie 

Edited December 19, 2022 by DONTYELLATME

[ctlp27]

First act looked like a different movie. I understand the need to put back a recap considering the decade gap but that is why the movie is 3 hours. Had the gap been less, we would have had a crazy 2 hours 10 minutes.

 

Script is dumb but way better than the first. Visually there's no word. Tbh I read on Deadline that some people are waiting to see it in the best room possible and I would refuse to not see it in Imax HFR if I lived in a city that offers it. It was mind blowing.

 

From a directing POV, it feels like some kind of best of of Cameron: Abyss, Titanic, Aliens, etc. Haters gonna hate.

[chiliam]

1 hour ago, Gaia said:

Endgame is a superhero movie that isn’t sold based on visuals. No one wants to watch avatar in 2D on a small screen. 
 

people are basically competing for slots to see it in 3D imax and the likes. 

This.

The Imax 3D shown in my country was packed even the 1st row over the weekend.

Some people switch to normal 3D, but hardly anyone bother with 2D. Everyone aim for limited imax 3D ticket. 

And the reaction is so good, it doesnt feel like a 3h30 movies at all. 

The movie will have long leg at box office.

[Donquizote]

Word of mouth has been good so far.

Many of my friends on social media are raving about this.

This will have legs

[X~MoviePoP]

My whole tiktok fyp is covered in teen girls gagging over the guys in this movie 

[sweetblindness]

The discourse around the box office for this movie is so tiring. Of course it won't have a massive opening weekend. The general population knows they don't need to rush to see the movie right when it releases to avoid spoilers like they had to do with Endgame and No Way Home. Titanic and the original Avatar both became the highest grossing movies ever because they had outstanding legs, not because they had record-breaking opening weekends. Will Avatar 2 become the new #1 grossing film ever and surpass 3 billion? No, probably not, but the people here saying it's a massive disappointment because of its opening weekend numbers don't seem to understand how this movie's situation is different from the most anticipated Marvel movies, for example. It'll probably be another weekend or two before we can start to declare it a disappointment or a success.

[Jay07]

Marvel movies were part of an ongoing franchise that was dropping 2-3 new installments a year, people were rushing to see the next episode. This has been away for 13 years and doesn't have the built in audience of Marvel. Let the word of mouth build and we will see how it does in a couple of weeks.

[BNF91]

South Korean 1st Monday presales are like 65-75% higher than No Way Home's. Insane. It's outgrossing by a big margin daily now. 

[mystery]

2 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

South Korean 1st Monday presales are like 65-75% higher than No Way Home's. Insane. It's outgrossing by a big margin daily now. 

Thoughts on potential final WW gross?

[BNF91]

1 minute ago, mystery said:

Thoughts on potential final WW gross?

Low end- $1.65-1.7B 

Realistic- $1.8-2B 

Optimistic- $2.1-2.3B 

 

Break-even is around $1.15B ($460M prod budget + $175-200M ad spend IMO) so plenty profitable in any case. Avatar 3, 4 and 5 are a go. 

 

 

 

 

[BNF91]

One BIG thing to take into consideration.. exchange rate! Man, the difference in exchange rate for USD compared to 2009/2010 is huge.   This is putting a dent in overseas grosses everywhere. If it can get to $1.3-1.5B overseas alone (which I think it will) that will be massive. 

[Mr. Loco]

1 hour ago, sweetblindness said:

The discourse around the box office for this movie is so tiring. Of course it won't have a massive opening weekend. The general population knows they don't need to rush to see the movie right when it releases to avoid spoilers like they had to do with Endgame and No Way Home. Titanic and the original Avatar both became the highest grossing movies ever because they had outstanding legs, not because they had record-breaking opening weekends. Will Avatar 2 become the new #1 grossing film ever and surpass 3 billion? No, probably not, but the people here saying it's a massive disappointment because of its opening weekend numbers don't seem to understand how this movie's situation is different from the most anticipated Marvel movies, for example. It'll probably be another weekend or two before we can start to declare it a disappointment or a success.

I'm not sure it can be compared to Avatar 1 or Titanic because those were original stories unrelated to any other thing, while A2 Is already a sequel and therefore people already have been anticipating the film, of course not as many as the MCU tho, but still.

[BNF91]

So, comparing this to the same year when Christmas Eve, Christmas, Boxing Day, NYE, NYD all fell on the same day (2011), and with a comparable film (Sherlock Holmes 2), Avatar would reach $685M domestic. 

 

The 2nd weekdays/3rd weekend are incredibly generous, with increases across the board.  Then pretty heavy drops through January to level out. These were my calculations using Sherlock's holds. This isn't set in stone btw, it's been a decade. But it should give a good idea of how the holiday box office might progress in the US/Canada. 

 

Wknd 1- $134.6M 

$75.7M wkdays ($210.3M total) ($210.3M wk)

Wknd 2- $83.5M ($293.8M total)

$121.4M Mon-Thu ($415.2M total) ($204.9M wk)

Wknd 3- $85.4M ($500.6M total)

$49M Mon-Thu ($549.6M total) ($134.4M wk)

Wknd 4- $51.6M ($601.2M total)

$15.8M Mon-Thu ($616M total) ($66.4M wk)

Wknd 5- $25M ($641M total)

$9.78M Mon-Thu ($650.78M total) ($34.8M wk)

Wknd 6- $11.5M ($662.3M total)

 

On its way to $685-690M. 

 

 

[OnlyManInTheWorld]

I’n curious to see if this will have legs. I don’t think so tbh. Absolutely loved the visuals but didn’t feel emotionally attached to main characters. Jake lost all his charisma, Zoe Saldana was always angry and screaming at everyone, and that Spider kid… He must be the most irritating character I’ve seen in years  Overall it’s a 7/10 movie thanks to its visuals.

Edited December 19, 2022 by OnlyManInTheWorld

[BNF91]

Vietnam 

Avatar 2's 2-day gross is bigger than the first Avatar's 3-week gross. Insanity. 3rd biggest opening weekend of all-time there ($5.8M). 5th biggest of all-time in Germany ($20M). 6th biggest of all-time in New Zealand. 2nd biggest non-local debut of all-time in India ($15.5M). $25M in South Korea. Biggest debut of all-time in several smaller markets (not yet listed). It's smashing your honour. 

[Dark Phoenix]

For me it was worst than A1, at least A1 had an interesting plot but here it was so messy and so many samey characters, it’s giving hype because of the water scenes but overall it’s meh I’ve not seen many people in Mexico (social media) going crazy about the film, I feel like:

 

DOM: $520M

WW: $1.5B - $1.7B

 

Which is like -40% than A1 we love to see it.

[zzmyth]

This will for sure have legs.

 

I think it will end up around Top Gun's numbers in the end... 1.4B-1.6B WW

 

I'd say 450M-500M US and 1-1.1B WW

[Lawssance]

Avatar 1 aged for me over the years since I had last watched a decade ago before my rewatch this week and liked it again. Avatar 2 was such a great sequel and a better movie imo. Absolutely loved it 10/10. The VFX, the visuals, and even though the story is a copy and paste almost from the first, I liked it more here, especially with the human storyline minimized in comparison to the first and the emotional payoff was greater (the son, the ?s, etc, were all better and more impactful than the no1curr father and guy from the first film). #SaveTheWhales people  RIP the mother whale and her baby 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Lawssance

[Zerocoke]

Hopefully this has strong legs and manages to get to 1.5-1.8B, I can’t wait for what Cameron has in store for us.

 

However he really needs to up his game with Avatar 3. This served as a great introduction for the new characters, but another movie about “evil humans vs. nature, now let’s explore the volcanoes” will become very tiring. Since he’s already filmed the 3rd film, I really hope he managed to see that.

 

 

[Donquizote]

Love it that ATRL calls this a flop. 

This site is always out of touch with what GP want