news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[Harrier]

1 hour ago, Communion said:

The music nkjnjknk  But I need the Congressional Progressive Caucus interns to also study pre-existing tiktok edit aesthetics and make sure our edits aren't cringe. Didn't need the fade to black, could have had the results fading into frame while she spoke for maximum effect. Let's fire up Final Cut Pro, my marketing girlies, gays, and theys!!

 

 

These numbers are outdated. The final result is going to be just under 77 million v 74 million and a popular vote gap of about 1.6 in Trumps favour.

It's true that dem turnout was very bad in blue states and down slightly in a few key areas like Philly, and this has had an impact on the toplinr number. But the simplistic story yall are continuously trying to push that Kamala lost just because she didn't turn out the base is an oversimplification and only one part of the story. Turnout was the same or higher in battleground states... ie where this campaign focused all of its efforts, unlike the COVID campaign where everything was national. Literally millions of voters switched their vote from Biden to Trump and data will continue to show that as time goes on. 

 

In the day after yall were yapping about 15 million fewer votes which I cautioned against, and now it's going to be 7 million. I would hope there can at least be some reflection about jumping the gun... but there wont be, because anything to comfirm your priors, right?

[Sannie]

7 minutes ago, Harrier said:

These numbers are outdated. The final result is going to be just under 77 million v 74 million and a popular vote gap of about 1.6 in Trumps favour.

It's true that dem turnout was very bad in blue states and down slightly in a few key areas like Philly, and this has had an impact on the toplinr number. But the simplistic story yall are continuously trying to push that Kamala lost just because she didn't turn out the base is an oversimplification and only one part of the story. Turnout was the same or higher in battleground states... ie where this campaign focused all of its efforts, unlike the COVID campaign where everything was national. Literally millions of voters switched their vote from Biden to Trump and data will continue to show that as time goes on. 

 

In the day after yall were yapping about 15 million fewer votes which I cautioned against, and now it's going to be 7 million. I would hope there can at least be some reflection about jumping the gun... but there wont be, because anything to comfirm your priors, right?

Now sis, you know there won't be.

 

 

-----

 

I am not a conspiratorial person and don't think anything shady happened, but it's insane that Dems practically swept NC but Kamala lost the Presidency there.  

[Communion]

3 minutes ago, Harrier said:

These numbers are outdated. The final result is going to be just under 77 million v 74 million and a popular vote gap of about 1.6 in Trumps favour.

 

Seems concerning that 70% of the votes Democrats lost were lost to the couch instead of a swing to Trump then. 

[ClashAndBurn]

4 minutes ago, Sannie said:

Now sis, you know there won't be.

 

 

-----

 

I am not a conspiratorial person and don't think anything shady happened, but it's insane that Dems practically swept NC but Kamala lost the Presidency there.  

It's really not. Kamala Harris was just a weak candidate, as evidenced by her having to drop out in 2019 before a single primary vote was cast because polling showed her getting beaten out of the top five in her own home state by Andrew Yang  

[Armani?]

 

[Harrier]

15 minutes ago, Communion said:

 

Seems concerning that 70% of the votes Democrats lost were lost to the couch instead of a swing to Trump then. 

Lord the way always you ignore everything said is utterly infuriating

 

First of all, even this is an admission that swing is a strong part of the story, which is not what yall were saying on day 1. But more importantly, if you broke down these results by state instead of doing this brainndead oh wow look at the topline number, it becomes clearer. The swing state results mainly reflect a.... swing ( ). Yeah sure quite a few Democrats didn't bother showing up in New York, New Jersey (thanks) and California. Some didn't show up in swing states too. But to ignore that millions switched their votes is to make a massive error again, all just to confirm your priors.

 

Also, is it reasnoble to expect any democrat to repeat the turnout result of an election against an unpopular Republican incumbent in the middle of a once in a century pandemic where people's lives were threatened? She needed to win the voting electorate and she didn't. The turnout mind games are always so arcane and hard to argue because there are literally dozens of reasons why someone doesn't show up to vote 

[Touchdown]

I thought she was a great energetic candidate but she literally only had 2 months to campaign. She didn't have over a year like Trump. She was thrown into it by Biden as well.

[ClashAndBurn]

1 minute ago, Harrier said:

Lord the way always you ignore everything said is utterly infuriating

 

First of all, even this is an admission that swing is a strong part of the story, which is not what yall were saying on day 1. But more importantly, if you broke down these results by state instead of doing this brainndead oh wow look at the topline number, it becomes clearer. The swing state results mainly reflect a.... swing ( ). Yeah sure quite a few Democrats didn't bother showing up in New York, New Jersey (thanks) and California. Some didn't show up in swing states too. But to ignore that millions switched their votes is to make a massive error again, all just to confirm your priors.

 

Also, it is reasnoble to expect any democrat to repeat the turnout result of an election against an unpopular incumbent in the middle of a once in a century pandemic where people's lives were threatened She needed to win the voting electorate and she didn't. The turnout mind games are always so arcane and hard to argue because there are literally dozens of reasons why someone doesn't show up to vote 

It's kinda funny how you say you hope the Democrats change course, but you and every other liberal here are always handing out excuses that explain why they shouldn't feel the need that they have to.

 

"The electorate is reactionary and hates incumbents."

"The pendulum is just swinging away and will swing back like it always."

 

Or on areas they DO need to change, it's always stuff like

 

"They need to throw trans people under the bus."
"The left is irrelevant and don't need to be catered to to win elections."

 

But then it's ALWAYS the left's fault for not turning out when we're being told directly that our vote isn't wanted.

[Armani?]

4 minutes ago, Touchdown said:

I thought she was a great energetic candidate but she literally only had 2 months to campaign. She didn't have over a year like Trump. She was thrown into it by Biden as well.

Whatever mirage of Biden being a "good president" is over with the Gaza genocide, and now being one the reasons Trump is reelected because he decided stubbornly to rerun and wouldn't drop out till 3 months before the election. Then he does photoshoots with the man the past days gleefully, the respectability politics is wack

[ClashAndBurn]

5 minutes ago, Armani? said:

Whatever mirage of Biden being a "good president" is over with the Gaza genocide, and now being one the reasons Trump is reelected because he decided stubbornly to rerun and wouldn't drop out till 3 months before the election. Then he does photoshoots with the man the past days gleefully, the respectability politics is wack

Imagine being such a dogshit president that people are begging and pleading to go back to being governed by the exact same insurrectionist neanderthal that they elected you to get away from in the first place  

[Communion]

1 minute ago, Harrier said:

First of all, even this is an admission that swing is a strong part of the story,

You're not American. You don't even know what you're arguing against at this point.

 

*You* from across 5 oceans away feel some weird, likely-fueled-by-transphobia urge to scream some argument when it is clear the majority of the issue Is collapse in turnout.

 

No one has even argued swing voters didn't play a part - the evidence shows Trump flipped a subset of men of color over the issue of economy.

 

I think you should ask why you're so uncomfortable with Americans having healthcare and Dems embracing trans people that you're arguing at the same time:

- The issue is not turnout collapse despite 70% of the voter losses being people who stayed home

- The swing voters that did flip to Trump somehow were NOT cause of the economy - despite it polling as the #1 issue - and that Dems should not shift to economic messaging.

 

"You're just sure of your priors". Because this objectively has proven many of us were right and you, from oceans away, were wrong.

 

[Vroom Vroom]

The 2024 election ended up being a sequel to the 1968. 

 

An old incumbent who spent most of his career in the Senate that only became president because a younger popular president made him his vp. That ends up dropping out of the race and creates a messy primary 

 

A Vice President who wins their party's nomination without winning a single primary contest 

 

High inflation and an unpopular war that divides the left and destroys the president's approval rating 

Leading to the democrats to lose to an unpopular Republican who lost a presidential race in the past 

 

 

 

 

[Armani?]

19 minutes ago, Communion said:

You're not American. You don't even know what you're arguing against at this point.

 

*You* from across 5 oceans away feel some weird, likely-fueled-by-transphobia urge to scream some argument when it is clear the majority of the issue Is collapse in turnout.

 

No one has even argued swing voters didn't play a part - the evidence shows Trump flipped a subset of men of color over the issue of economy.

 

I think you should ask why you're so uncomfortable with Americans having healthcare and Dems embracing trans people that you're arguing at the same time:

- The issue is not turnout collapse despite 70% of the voter losses being people who stayed home

- The swing voters that did flip to Trump somehow were NOT cause of the economy - despite it polling as the #1 issue - and that Dems should not shift to economic messaging.

 

"You're just sure of your priors". Because this objectively has proven many of us were right and you, from oceans away, were wrong.

 

This is really AP Votercast's data. They have the margins closer than the exit poll 51 - 47 vs 54 - 43

 

And the swings are very crazy in the subgroups

 

Curious if Catalist & Pew will be something similar

[anti-bitch]

@Communion And it's not like the "ceiling" for Dems is 81 million votes. If Trump was able to pull more votes now than in 2020, why not Dems too?

Edited 1 hour ago by anti-bitch

[Communion]

Like I'm sorry but constant diatribes like this

On 11/15/2024 at 4:35 AM, Harrier said:

Leftist politics is not some magic elixir immune to the ebb and flow of electoral politics. There is this delusion.. that the moment a Bernie Sanders gets in, the country will be healed

are effectively no different in its intended trolling than this:

 

The saber-rattling by those deeply invested in stopping progressive politics has become tired. Every vestige of anti-left politics has failed. 

 

Neoliberals in 2016: Left-wing economic politics are bad because they do not sufficiently address racism and sexism

Neoliberals in 2024: Left-wing economic politics are bad because they refuse to de-couple addressing the economy from supporting minorities the US voter does not want to support and for over-emphasizing addressing racism and sexism

 

Left-wing politics is somehow both racist and too woke.

 

Both factions of the corporate, neoliberal establishment and its supporters hate it, whether citing it as sidelining high-income business owners of color and thus doomed to fail or citing it as somehow the product of those who do not want to run on hating trans people or the homeless and thus doomed to fail with the average far-right American.

 

"Heads I win, tails you lose". Guaranteeing healthcare like every other developed nation in the world is so doomed to fail that is must NEVER be tried EVER.

[Mike91]

I do wonder if we'll see presidents switched out every 4 years for awhile. Americans aren't happy but still haven't come to the realization of who actually destroyed their towns, took away their jobs, etc. Right now they blame immigrants, the LGBTQ+ community, other minorities, etc. Maybe it'll click at some point. 

[ClashAndBurn]

4 minutes ago, anti-***** said:

@Communion And it's not like the "ceiling" for Dems is 81 million votes. If Trump was able to pull more votes now than in 2020, why not Dems too?

Because Trump grew his base, while Dems did everything to shrink theirs by being genocidal freaks and failing to deliver on... basically any of their promised agenda because people in their very own party told them "no."

 

Meanwhile, who in Trump's party is going to tell him he can't commit mass deportations on Day 1? Who's going to tell him he can't explode the deficit with tax cuts for the rich? Who's going to tell him he can't seek retribution and go after hurting "the right people" like trans individuals? If anything, he's going to have some Democrats going along and cheering him on the whole time!

[Armani?]

4 minutes ago, Mike91 said:

I do wonder if we'll see presidents switched out every 4 years for awhile. Americans aren't happy but still haven't come to the realization of who actually destroyed their towns, took away their jobs, etc. Right now they blame immigrants, the LGBTQ+ community, other minorities, etc. Maybe it'll click at some point. 

Well...

[ClashAndBurn]

4 minutes ago, Mike91 said:

I do wonder if we'll see presidents switched out every 4 years for awhile. Americans aren't happy but still haven't come to the realization of who actually destroyed their towns, took away their jobs, etc. Right now they blame immigrants, the LGBTQ+ community, other minorities, etc. Maybe it'll click at some point. 

I think Democrats could get lucky in 2028 with Josh Shapiro. I personally hate the guy even more than I hate Joe Biden... But it's entirely possible. Unfortunately.

 

But when reapportionment happens in 2030, with the amount of Electoral College votes California and New York alone are losing to Florida and Texas, the blue wall won't be enough to save Democrats with the bare minimum of 270-268, and I don't think they'll have much of a path to the presidency at that point anymore. They will absolutely need one of:

A: Georgia
B: North Carolina
C: Arizona AND Nevada

 

in order to make up for lost ground.

[Marianah Adkins]

Idg the suspicion among Blue Anon over the election results. Split ticketing can happen and has happened (in 2020, where the GOP did very well downballot amidst Biden's win) 

 

Historically, the Democrats downballot benefit from such split ticketing so much so that to do Reagan and Nixon's second term landslides, they had to campaign separately from the national party as to not piss off split ticket voters who vote blue downballot but red federally (which is why the Dems held their hold on Congress for so long despite the numerous red presidencies). 

[ClashAndBurn]

9 minutes ago, Marianah Adkins said:

Idg the suspicion among Blue Anon over the election results. Split ticketing can happen and has happened (in 2020, where the GOP did very well downballot amidst Biden's win) 

 

Historically, the Democrats downballot benefit from such split ticketing so much so that to do Reagan and Nixon's second term landslides, they had to campaign separately from the national party as to not piss off split ticket voters who vote blue downballot but red federally (which is why the Dems held their hold on Congress for so long despite the numerous red presidencies). 

Not to mention, I seem to remember that Joe Biden practically encouraged split-ticketing in 2020 by inviting Republicans to vote for him because Trump was a unique evil, but invited them to vote for good Republicans downballot.

 

Which didn't really work anywhere but with a small slice of Mainers who voted for both him and Susan Collins