Relampago. Posted September 27 Posted September 27 (edited) 1 hour ago, Thuggin said: Remember when people used to say that younger generations reaching voting age and a racially diversifying country would eventually render the Republican Party obsolete. Or that Trump would kill the party. https://www.axios.com/2023/01/15/voters-declare-independence-political-parties Well, let's not be hasty sis! This data doesn't really show that Republicans aren't dying out, or that Dems are. Younger people are becoming independent more and more, yet they still skew Democrat when it comes down to it. Dems can't take them for granted, it's true but it's not like this uptick is necessarily spelling out the Republican Party's revival. If anything it's showing both parties are dying and young people especially are fed up, so if anything it'll be a race for each party to change and bring these younger generations into their camp. This is more reason to celebrate than anything, since people aren't as tolerant of Dems center right takes and likely don't care to become Republicans either. So… hello let's celebrate that? Spoiler Also I know Gallup used to be the gold standard but I am suspicious of their credibility lately, but maybe that's just my internal bias but alas: Edited September 27 by Relampago. 4
ClashAndBurn Posted September 27 Posted September 27 2 hours ago, Harriser said: I respect and admire this point of view and your willingness to express it, and I agree, there is not a clear path for Ukraine to victory and it should be questioned whether this is actually the right decision not only for the West, but even more importantly for the Ukrainian people. It shouldn't have to be an isolationist, right wing position - it is also a humanist one: there is no point letting more and more Ukrainians die in the service of preserving exact pre-2022 national borders, especially if there is a path to a ceasefire where the only concessions are those territories where there were already civil conflicts. I place much higher value on people's lives than I do on nationalistic concepts of sovereignty or the motherland. Reveal hidden contents But I would like to be even more messy than you and quietly point out that there is an inconsistency in this particular position often taken by leftists. There is an expectation that Ukraine be realistic and make concessions, negotiate with Russia even though it has very clearly been victimised by the aggressive Putin regime. Meanwhile, if I am to suggest the something similar with regards to a two state solution and argue that there is no actual path to 'from the river to sea', and thus seeking it is causing suffering for the Palestinian people, I am shouted down by many progressives as an Israel shill or a zionist in disguise. I would tentatively suggest that the difference here is Ukrainians are not framed as victims in your minds in the same way, and therefore the view is more pragmatic/humanist and less moralistic. But in actuality, innocent folks in both situations could benefit from thinking that puts them first and any other considerations about borders, history, past grievances, or indigeneity firmly second. Or maybe sharing my view - which might be described by some as paternalistic - might reveal that perhaps you aren't so sure about this Ukraine position A position that argues victimised peoples should be supported in their ability to fight against agressive regimes like Israel and Russia is at least more internally consistent, and there are definitely progressives who believe that also. Advocating for a two state solution doesn't make one an Israel shill. It's just… not realistic, considering Israel does not want one and has never wanted one. American officials only ever push that line to placate protests over their actual policy, which so far has become less and less effective at convincing anyone. All they really want is to invade their neighbors and expand their borders from the Euphrates River to the Sinai Peninsula. That is what the West Bank settlers want to achieve, and neither Biden nor Harris nor Trump will ever even be willing to deter them with sanctions or the threaten of withholding arms shipments. The entire point of the Abraham Accords that Jared Kushner worked on (and that Biden-Harris continued to pursue with Brett McGurk) was to sideline the Palestinians and keep their sovereignty demands out of the conversation while relations were normalized between Israel and the Arab nation leaders who view Palestine as a nuisance and secretly wish they would go away so their populations wouldn't get fired up over them being slaughtered anymore. As for Russia-Ukraine, I've said much the same here as you just did and have been accused of being a boot licker for Putin, even though my greater concerns about escalation come from the fact that Putin is clearly unstable and might opt to trigger mutually-assured destruction by launching nukes if he got desperate enough. And not "Putin good, America bad." 1 1
Blade Posted September 27 Posted September 27 3 hours ago, tiejc said: NE-2 is ours. I think we'll lose one of GA or AZ, flip NC and the rest stays the same. Nate Silver also thinks this is probable Chances Harris wins a Trump 2020 state: 55.2% (NC was within 1 pt in 2020 and the next closest was FL which trended red to R+3) Chances Trump wins a Biden 2020 state: 77.7% 1
CaptainMusic Posted September 27 Posted September 27 39 minutes ago, shelven said: The thing that makes Lichtman's hackery even funnier than it already is is that you can just tell he's being 100% deadly serious that he believes his magical keys are a flawless oracle and that he's the lone knowledge-keeper on the planet who's capable of properly interpreting them NGL the fact that he's predicting Harris to win still makes me hopeful, hard not to be due to his history even if it's mostly nonsense. I am interested to see how he defends his model if Kamala loses though. 3
Sannie Posted September 27 Posted September 27 1 hour ago, Thuggin said: Remember when people used to say that younger generations reaching voting age and a racially diversifying country would eventually render the Republican Party obsolete. Or that Trump would kill the party. Gallup has been very messy this time around just an fyi. A lot of this could absolutely be ancestral Dems who've always voted Republican finally switching their registration but idk. 1 1
Communion Posted September 27 Posted September 27 Trying to punch down on Palestinian liberation as a gotcha against isolationism on Ukraine is funny cause....Hamas has already called for a ceasefire that would still see Israel illegally occupying Palestine. And Biden simply replied "didnt see that, oops lol". 2 2
CaptainMusic Posted September 27 Posted September 27 2 hours ago, Thuggin said: Remember when people used to say that younger generations reaching voting age and a racially diversifying country would eventually render the Republican Party obsolete. Or that Trump would kill the party. Not sure if this is true but I saw this on Twitter in the comments that Gallup's polling is usually accurate at predicting the popular vote: 🔵 2008: D+8 (Obama+7.2) 🔵 2012: D+4 (Obama+3.9) 🔵 2016: D+3 (Clinton+2.1) 🔵 2020: D+5 (Biden+4.5) 🔴 2024: R+3 (?) Hmm 1 1
Hexchromatica Posted September 27 Posted September 27 2 hours ago, Thuggin said: Remember when people used to say that younger generations reaching voting age and a racially diversifying country would eventually render the Republican Party obsolete. Or that Trump would kill the party. Parents spreading their trash onto their kids 1
Thuggin Posted September 27 Posted September 27 They always tweet this no matter how dumb it is, despite the fact that their own map shows at least three states that are entirely blue and a couple more that are almost entirely blue 5
Armani? Posted September 27 Posted September 27 27 minutes ago, CaptainMusic said: Not sure if this is true but I saw this on Twitter in the comments that Gallup's polling is usually accurate at predicting the popular vote: 🔵 2008: D+8 (Obama+7.2) 🔵 2012: D+4 (Obama+3.9) 🔵 2016: D+3 (Clinton+2.1) 🔵 2020: D+5 (Biden+4.5) 🔴 2024: R+3 (?) Hmm Proves how horrible of a candidate Trump is 1
Blade Posted September 27 Posted September 27 explanation as to why NV and AZ look redder than 2020 but Rust Belt and NC don't @shelven @Vermillion 2 1
thesegayz Posted September 27 Posted September 27 16 minutes ago, Thuggin said: They always tweet this no matter how dumb it is, despite the fact that their own map shows at least three states that are entirely blue and a couple more that are almost entirely blue I hate this graphic. Land doesn't vote, people do. And you can bang your head into a wall screaming this fact at them, and they'll dig their heels in. this era of civic engagement sucks 3 1
CaptainMusic Posted September 27 Posted September 27 2 minutes ago, Armani? said: Proves how horrible of a candidate Trump is Could also mean polls are underestimating him yet again. Republicans haven't lead in a Gallup poll since 1988 and they've been really accurate at predicting the popular vote. Seems weird to me that if Kamala wins the popular vote then they will have been off by 3-4 points in Dems' favour when in the previous elections the Dems were leading and ended up with a slightly lower lead. 1
shelven Posted September 27 Posted September 27 2 minutes ago, GhostBox said: Interesting that Trump's been the one benefitting from the RV/LV gap in the last few high quality polls, when for a while before that it was mostly Harris who had the edge there. I wonder if Harris voters have become less enthusiastic to vote after the excitement of her entering the race peaked, or if this has just been a weird outlier week for RV/LV polls.
Blade Posted September 27 Posted September 27 4 minutes ago, CaptainMusic said: Could also mean polls are underestimating him yet again. Republicans haven't lead in a Gallup poll since 1988 and they've been really accurate at predicting the popular vote. Seems weird to me that if Kamala wins the popular vote then they will have been off by 3-4 points in Dems' favour when in the previous elections the Dems were leading and ended up with a slightly lower lead. Omg the EC/PV reversal is coming CA and NY -10 pts in favor of R's Rust belt swing states further left than the nation for the first time in who knows how long
Armani? Posted September 27 Posted September 27 6 minutes ago, CaptainMusic said: Could also mean polls are underestimating him yet again. Republicans haven't lead in a Gallup poll since 1988 and they've been really accurate at predicting the popular vote. Seems weird to me that if Kamala wins the popular vote then they will have been off by 3-4 points in Dems' favour when in the previous elections the Dems were leading and ended up with a slightly lower lead. Could also be because it was true with Biden on the ballot but it just doesn't reflect the immediate vibe change with Kamala
Armani? Posted September 27 Posted September 27 1956?.... The irony is they probably lost thousands of votes immediately following that Haitian bullshit. 6
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