news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[FameFatale]

 

[Virgos Groove]

2 hours ago, Harriser said:

I respect and admire this point of view and your willingness to express it, and I agree, there is not a clear path for Ukraine to victory and it should be questioned whether this is actually the right decision not only for the West, but even more importantly for the Ukrainian people. It shouldn't have to be an isolationist, right wing position - it is also a humanist one: there is no point letting more and more Ukrainians die in the service of preserving exact pre-2022 national borders, especially if there is a path to a ceasefire where the only concessions are those territories where there were already civil conflicts. I place much higher value on people's lives than I do on nationalistic concepts of sovereignty or the motherland.

  Hide contents

But I would like to be even more messy than you and quietly point out that there is an inconsistency in this particular position often taken by leftists. There is an expectation that Ukraine be realistic and make concessions, negotiate with Russia even though it has very clearly been victimised by the aggressive Putin regime.  Meanwhile, if I am to suggest the something similar with regards to a two state solution and argue that there is no actual path to 'from the river to sea', and thus seeking it is causing suffering for the Palestinian people, I am shouted down by many progressives as an Israel shill or a zionist in disguise. I would tentatively suggest that the difference here is Ukrainians are not framed as victims in your minds in the same way, and therefore the view is more pragmatic/humanist and less moralistic. But in actuality, innocent folks in both situations could benefit from thinking that puts them first and any other considerations about borders, history, past grievances, or indigeneity firmly second.

 

Or maybe sharing my view - which might be described by some as paternalistic - might reveal that perhaps you aren't so sure about this Ukraine position

A position that argues victimised peoples should be supported in their ability to fight against agressive regimes like Israel and Russia is at least more internally consistent, and there are definitely progressives who believe that also.

 

That paralell has come to mind in the last few days, and especially when I was making my post, and I think it's worth discussing.

 

I think first and foremost we need to split what are moral abstract discussions (what should happen) and the realpolitik possibilities. 

 

My view on what should happen (the idealistic view):

 

-> Palestine: secular one-state solution with right of return for Palestinians and abolition of the settlements.

-> Ukraine: expulsion of the Russian army from Ukrainian territory, respect for Ukrainian sovereignty and the 1992 borders, securing Russian minority rights.

-> NATO (and all great power military alliances): abolished.

 

I don't think these are conflicting views. Both respect sovereignty, reject great power interference and promote peaceful co-existence of peoples within a nation.

 

But, of course, we have to talk about what's real.

 

When people argue for a one-state solution, they do it not only for ideological reasons (the right of the Palestinians to a nation and rejection of settler-colonial apartheid), but because a two-state-solution is not seen as a possible solution to the conflict. Israel, since the Oslo accords, has done everything in its power to make a two-state-solution impossible. Netanyahu will tell you that himself.

 

Let's apply the Oslo model to Ukraine:

Ukraine rejects armed struggle and respects Russian "claims" to Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, as well as sizeable parts of Middle Ukraine.

Russia controls Ukraine's access to the sea, their borders, etc.

Ukraine ends up with a dysfunctional rump state and with no army. Russia then starts allowing settlers to move into assigned Ukrainian territory, assisted by the Russian army, and sets up army check points in Ukrainian territory. Ukraine now has even less territory than was agreed and Ukrainians live under apartheid.

Zelensky protests this and, in response, the Russian army sieges his house for two years.

Ukrainian elections are only done with Russian approval and the candidates have to be approved by Putin.

 

Would this be acceptable to anyone? Absolutely not. This would be rightly considered by everyone with a brain and a moral backbone to be a Ukrainian Versailles. Expelling Russia from Ukraine becomes the logical conclusion. Co-existence is impossible.

 

Well, that's what hapenned to Palestine.

 

That's why, even though, I get and agree with the parallel (Russia and Israel as invaders, Palestinians and Ukrainians as the invaded), I think they're at different stages of development.

 

If we look at the only attempt at diplomacy since February 2022, we can see that Ukraine would've been afforded my better conditions than Palestine was at Oslo. Not only would they get to join the EU, but they would get security guarantees by all major powers (including a no-fly-zone, which Article 5 doesn't provide), as well as to keep their army. Russia got stingy with the details of the guarantees, but with a US and EU (constructive instead of destructive) presence, I think they could've worked it out.  Ukraine wouldn't have gotten everything, but peace would've been at hand, without Ukraine falling into the same mistakes the PLO made in 1993.

 

Now let's turn to Palestine. Earlier this year, the Palestinian Authority and six Arab nations made a proposal to Biden: a ceasefire and a true two-state-solution under the 1967 lines. This was the Palestinians being willing to make a sacrifice. They just wanted to actually rule Gaza and the West Bank, while still allowing an ethnostate to border them. Biden said no.

 

In the case of Ukraine and Palestine, we have inverse situations:

Palestine: Hamas and Israel are diplomatically negotiating, but nothing is being worked out. The US-Israeli proposals are ludicrous.

Ukraine: The Instanbul Comuniquee provides a good basis for negotiations to start and both countries appear to be willing to make concessions if they actually meet face to face. Yet Ukraine/US and Russia refuse to engate diplomatically.

 

And to go back to your question, I think this is why leftists fight harder for the one-state-solution than full sovereignty for Ukraine. Ukraine + NATO vs. Russia is simply a more balanced basis of negotiations than Israel + US vs. a rump Palestinian state with no army.

Edited Friday at 08:51 PM by Virgos Groove

[Thuggin]

Remember when people used to say that younger generations reaching voting age and a racially diversifying country would eventually render the Republican Party obsolete. Or that Trump would kill the party.

 

[Lil Mistee]

20 minutes ago, Thuggin said:

Remember when people used to say that younger generations reaching voting age and a racially diversifying country would eventually render the Republican Party obsolete. Or that Trump would kill the party.

 

Isn't this the first time this has happened since 1996…

[Rotunda]

 

The girls are fighting 

[DR0GO]

5 hours ago, Vermillion said:

@aquababy @FameFatale Well while we're still on Virginia let it be known for the record that this Virginian in a rural Trump county bordering a University county took their absentee ballot (for, reluctantly, Harris, then Dems downballot, and voting for expanding tax benefits to broaden the property tax exemption outside just surviving spouses of soldiers killed in action) to their admin office's 24-7 camera monitored yellow ballot drop-box at the administrative building (that the woman confirmed on the phone, unprompted, was monitored that much ) because I don't trust DeJoy's post office for proper delivery. And I convinced my sister (because she'd forgot to do it earlier) in Arlington to not wait to vote the day of in case something happens the day of and that it was too late to go through the provisional process for an absentee so she's voting early at the addresses I gave her.

 

Virginia (as I've said countless times) is still the most politically diverse state in the country. We had a rural progressive primary Northam in Perriello and an ACTUAL fascist run for Senate (Corey Stewart). Then the center to center-right Dems of the legislature and past Governors but still some (relatively) robust DSA chapters (and…haphazard…dem soc Lee Carter ). We have a booming Asian electorate, a booming Latino electorate, an old-guard black electorate in Richmond and Hampton Roads AND booming young black electorate.

 

We've got the religious conservative base of support of the Falwells in Lynchburg, the military conservative base of support from Newport News and VMI, the booming tech center-left in NoVa, the booming military industrial complex of Never Trumpers in NoVa, the drug addiction Appalachian corridor of Southwest VA hard-core Trumpers, and a lot of progressive rural leftists pissed off about pipelines and the corruption of Norfolk Southern. Then there's the university towns which are ALL booming in growth and center-left white retirees, especially Charlottesville.

 

Virginia is NOT a blue state. We are a purple state with a slight red tilt still where victories come down almost solely to turn-out. Chris Rufo's CRT narratives the MSM ran with as responsible for Youngkin's win were NOT accurate. We are in the thick of the book-ban trans youth culture wars that started with the now infamous assault case in Loudoun County but working-class white moms pushed him over the edge because of Covid closures, high grocery prices, and McAuliffe's terrible debate performance.

Let 'em know neighbor!  I'm in Maryland.

[shelven]

The thing that makes Lichtman's hackery even funnier than it already is is that you can just tell he's being 100% deadly serious that he believes his magical keys are a flawless oracle and that he's the lone knowledge-keeper on the planet who's capable of properly interpreting them

[Relampago.]

20 minutes ago, Rotunda said:

 

The girls are fighting 

The only keys decisions I really question are the economy ones (I wasn't sure that discrediting the "vibecession"/inflation warranted giving Harris those keys) but seeing how people are legitimately moving towards Harris on the economy and inflation/gas prices going down.. I feel like he made the right call. 

 

Even still, they can afford to lose one of the economy keys and his prediction would hold. Nate is just salty every time his past predictions get called out, cause well they were silly! But at the same time, he himself acknowledges his model is made to change and won't be fully "accurate" until we're closer to the election. I'm not sure why he's being catty when his model is just.. doing what he intended for it to do  

 

He's just arguing to argue at this point like a TRUE gay!

[GhostBox]

You just can't make this up 💀

 

[Relampago.]

1 hour ago, Thuggin said:

Remember when people used to say that younger generations reaching voting age and a racially diversifying country would eventually render the Republican Party obsolete. Or that Trump would kill the party.

 

https://www.axios.com/2023/01/15/voters-declare-independence-political-parties

 

Well, let's not be hasty sis!

 

This data doesn't really show that Republicans aren't dying out, or that Dems are. Younger people are becoming independent more and more, yet they still skew Democrat when it comes down to it. Dems can't take them for granted, it's true but it's not like this uptick is necessarily spelling out the Republican Party's revival.

 

If anything it's showing both parties are dying and young people especially are fed up, so if anything it'll be a race for each party to change and bring these younger generations into their camp. This is more reason to celebrate than anything, since people aren't as tolerant of Dems center right takes and likely don't care to become Republicans either.

 

So… hello let's celebrate that?

 

Spoiler

Also I know Gallup used to be the gold standard but I am suspicious of their credibility lately, but maybe that's just my internal bias but alas:

 

 

 

Edited Friday at 08:49 PM by Relampago.

[ClashAndBurn]

2 hours ago, Harriser said:

I respect and admire this point of view and your willingness to express it, and I agree, there is not a clear path for Ukraine to victory and it should be questioned whether this is actually the right decision not only for the West, but even more importantly for the Ukrainian people. It shouldn't have to be an isolationist, right wing position - it is also a humanist one: there is no point letting more and more Ukrainians die in the service of preserving exact pre-2022 national borders, especially if there is a path to a ceasefire where the only concessions are those territories where there were already civil conflicts. I place much higher value on people's lives than I do on nationalistic concepts of sovereignty or the motherland.

  Reveal hidden contents

But I would like to be even more messy than you and quietly point out that there is an inconsistency in this particular position often taken by leftists. There is an expectation that Ukraine be realistic and make concessions, negotiate with Russia even though it has very clearly been victimised by the aggressive Putin regime.  Meanwhile, if I am to suggest the something similar with regards to a two state solution and argue that there is no actual path to 'from the river to sea', and thus seeking it is causing suffering for the Palestinian people, I am shouted down by many progressives as an Israel shill or a zionist in disguise. I would tentatively suggest that the difference here is Ukrainians are not framed as victims in your minds in the same way, and therefore the view is more pragmatic/humanist and less moralistic. But in actuality, innocent folks in both situations could benefit from thinking that puts them first and any other considerations about borders, history, past grievances, or indigeneity firmly second.

 

Or maybe sharing my view - which might be described by some as paternalistic - might reveal that perhaps you aren't so sure about this Ukraine position

A position that argues victimised peoples should be supported in their ability to fight against agressive regimes like Israel and Russia is at least more internally consistent, and there are definitely progressives who believe that also.

 

Advocating for a two state solution doesn't make one an Israel shill. It's just… not realistic, considering Israel does not want one and has never wanted one. American officials only ever push that line to placate protests over their actual policy, which so far has become less and less effective at convincing anyone. All they really want is to invade their neighbors and expand their borders from the Euphrates River to the Sinai Peninsula. That is what the West Bank settlers want to achieve, and neither Biden nor Harris nor Trump will ever even be willing to deter them with sanctions or the threaten of withholding arms shipments.
 

The entire point of the Abraham Accords that Jared Kushner worked on (and that Biden-Harris continued to pursue with Brett McGurk) was to sideline the Palestinians and keep their sovereignty demands out of the conversation while relations were normalized between Israel and the Arab nation leaders who view Palestine as a nuisance and secretly wish they would go away so their populations wouldn't get fired up over them being slaughtered anymore.

 

As for Russia-Ukraine, I've said much the same here as you just did and have been accused of being a boot licker for Putin, even though my greater concerns about escalation come from the fact that Putin is clearly unstable and might opt to trigger mutually-assured destruction by launching nukes if he got desperate enough. And not "Putin good, America bad." 

[Blade]

3 hours ago, tiejc said:

NE-2 is ours. I think we'll lose one of GA or AZ, flip NC and the rest stays the same.

Nate Silver also thinks this is probable

 

Chances Harris wins a Trump 2020 state: 55.2% (NC was within 1 pt in 2020 and the next closest was FL which trended red to R+3)

 

Chances Trump wins a Biden 2020 state:

77.7%

[Lightbringer007]

what an evil man he is

 

 

 

[CaptainMusic]

39 minutes ago, shelven said:

The thing that makes Lichtman's hackery even funnier than it already is is that you can just tell he's being 100% deadly serious that he believes his magical keys are a flawless oracle and that he's the lone knowledge-keeper on the planet who's capable of properly interpreting them

NGL the fact that he's predicting Harris to win still makes me hopeful, hard not to be due to his history even if it's mostly nonsense.  
 

I am interested to see how he defends his model if Kamala loses though.

[Sannie]

1 hour ago, Thuggin said:

Remember when people used to say that younger generations reaching voting age and a racially diversifying country would eventually render the Republican Party obsolete. Or that Trump would kill the party.

 

Gallup has been very messy this time around just an fyi. 
 

A lot of this could absolutely be ancestral Dems who've always voted Republican finally switching their registration but idk. 

[Lightbringer007]

 

 

[Communion]

Trying to punch down on Palestinian liberation as a gotcha against isolationism on Ukraine is funny cause....Hamas has already called for a ceasefire that would still see Israel illegally occupying Palestine. And Biden simply replied "didnt see that, oops lol".

[GhostBox]

 

[CaptainMusic]

2 hours ago, Thuggin said:

Remember when people used to say that younger generations reaching voting age and a racially diversifying country would eventually render the Republican Party obsolete. Or that Trump would kill the party.

 

Not sure if this is true but I saw this on Twitter in the comments that Gallup's polling is usually accurate at predicting the popular vote:

🔵 2008: D+8 (Obama+7.2)
🔵 2012: D+4 (Obama+3.9)
🔵 2016: D+3 (Clinton+2.1)
🔵 2020: D+5 (Biden+4.5)
🔴 2024: R+3  (?)

Hmm

 

[GhostBox]

 

[Hexchromatica]

2 hours ago, Thuggin said:

Remember when people used to say that younger generations reaching voting age and a racially diversifying country would eventually render the Republican Party obsolete. Or that Trump would kill the party.

 

Parents spreading their trash onto their kids 

[Thuggin]

They always tweet this no matter how dumb it is, despite the fact that their own map shows at least three states that are entirely blue and a couple more that are almost entirely blue

[Armani?]

27 minutes ago, CaptainMusic said:

Not sure if this is true but I saw this on Twitter in the comments that Gallup's polling is usually accurate at predicting the popular vote:

🔵 2008: D+8 (Obama+7.2)
🔵 2012: D+4 (Obama+3.9)
🔵 2016: D+3 (Clinton+2.1)
🔵 2020: D+5 (Biden+4.5)
🔴 2024: R+3  (?)

Hmm

 

Proves how horrible of a candidate Trump is 

[Blade]

explanation as to why NV and AZ look redder than 2020 but Rust Belt and NC don't

 

@shelven @Vermillion

[Armani?]

I think she'll keep Nevada but lose Arizona tbh