news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[Blade]

1 minute ago, Raspberries said:

Kamala has a ton of cash (far more than Trump) and will until this is over. She has the resources to continue pouring money into states where she is basically tied (AZ, GA, NC) so why wouldn't she?

Plus dems actually have a ground game in places like NC which shifted left comparing 2016 to 2020.

[GhostBox]

A little better than I expected tbh 👏🏼

[Lightbringer007]

 

 

[shelven]

20 minutes ago, Sannie said:

Excuse my ignorance, but what are the implications of herding? Is it just polls are afraid to look like outliers and so we don't actually know what's going on?

Basically herding can stem from one of two things:

 

1) Pollsters playing around with the weights of their sample until the result "looks right". The more reputable pollsters won't do this egregiously, but they might make small tweaks to their turnout model or their expected voter composition if their initial assumptions lead to a result that looks "off".

 

2) Not publishing a poll at all if it looks really off. Reputable non-partisan pollsters likely aren't doing this much (since polls aren't cheap to conduct and they don't really have a "stake" in the result other than their own accuracy/reputation), but we technically don't know if there's been additional polls we simply haven't seen because the pollster decided they were too afraid of looking like they don't know what they're doing.

 

So the implication is that the final poll results that are released to the public came from a conclusion-first process. The pollster, either expressly or subconsciously, came up with their idea for what the result "should" look like and then either played around with the poll to make the result line up with that expectation or threw it out entirely. And if pollsters start releasing polls based mainly on conventional wisdom and prior expectations, polling becomes useless because we just enter an infinite feedback loop where the polls are based on prior expectations, and then those polls reinforce those prior expectations, which only creates stronger expectations that incentivize pollsters to herd future polls, and repeat. 

[Marianah Adkins]

2 hours ago, Harriser said:

Hillary does have talent in her mainstream media appearances. She actually has a tendency to be quite strong and straightforward in her answers in a way that people like Kamala and Obama just... aren't. I think it comes from the same place that made her weak as an overall candidate, which is her arrogance. She will answer questions straightforwardly, and as a result say things that will get her into to trouble occasionally. She does this because she is not as careful as say, a Kamala is. This same arrogance also make her unlikeable to a lot of people, and what led her to make bizzare decisions like not going to Wisconsin etc.

 

Though I admit I kind of have a soft spot for her unwieldy 'say the quiet part outloud' version of mainstream democtratic politics. There is something weirdly honest about how blatantly political she is.

An unpopular opinion of mine is that Hillary should have ran for VP first instead of President. I think it actually highlights her strengths and downplays her weaknesses in that she is not pressured to play nice and affable while also maintaining herself as the attack dog against the Republicans which fires up the Dems base.

[Blade]

9 minutes ago, Marianah Adkins said:

An unpopular opinion of mine is that Hillary should have ran for VP first instead of President. I think it actually highlights her strengths and downplays her weaknesses in that she is not pressured to play nice and affable while also maintaining herself as the attack dog against the Republicans which fires up the Dems base.

Whose VP? Kerry's?  Or Obama?

[GhostBox]

A tied NC race atm with all these horrible allegations against Robinson could help get Harris over the line 👏🏼👏🏼

 

 

also I just don't see Gallego winning by tht much and not pulling Harris over the line too. I know some don't believe in coattails but 🤷

[Marianah Adkins]

14 minutes ago, Blade said:

Whose VP? Kerry's?  Or Obama?

Idk tbh but I just feel that becoming VP first would suit her strengths more as a candidate.

 

[Marianah Adkins]

Speaking of Kerry, random thought but I just realized that if Ohio went for Kerry in 2004, he wouldve won the electoral college but lost the popular vote 

[Relampago.]

18 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

A tied NC race atm with all these horrible allegations against Robinson could help get Harris over the line 👏🏼👏🏼

 

 

also I just don't see Gallego winning by tht much and not pulling Harris over the line too. I know some don't believe in coattails but 🤷

Kelly won comfortably while Hobbs and Biden squeaked by.

 

But that's because Kelly is a huge hero here in AZ. I honestly see Harris either barely winning (maybe even tighter than Biden?) and Gallego's race being way closer than polls are saying. 

—

Can I be vulnerable for a second?

 

Spoiler

The main thing giving me hope since Harris hopped in the race are those damn Keys to the White House   

 

[GhostBox]

34 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

Kelly won comfortably while Hobbs and Biden squeaked by.

 

But that's because Kelly is a huge hero here in AZ. I honestly see Harris either barely winning (maybe even tighter than Biden?) and Gallego's race being way closer than polls are saying. 

—

Can I be vulnerable for a second?

 

  Reveal hidden contents

The main thing giving me hope since Harris hopped in the race are those damn Keys to the White House   

 

I believe the senate race has to be closer too if the presidential numbers are basically tied. 

[GhostBox]

Everybody brace yourself tonight. In the morning Nate silver is more than likely putting Trump back ahead on his model 💀😂

[Marianah Adkins]

Idk if ontopic but the Chappel Roan discourse is something else  Like move on already, campaign and vote

Ppl like to say that the Left self afflicts its own mortality but in this case, it is the left of Center/Liberals that are doing it this time. Fighting Chappell Roan of all people for what? loyalty points? Meanwhile the Trump Republicans are busy consolidating any possible allies they can get to compete. 

[Communion]

8 hours ago, shelven said:

This might be an unpopular take in this thread, but things like this are why I never bought into the idea that Harris's stance on Israel/Palestine would be some death knell for her in Michigan. Muslim voters aren't a monolith.

For clarity though, there's a reason why Michigan has been the topic of the conversation and not other states with large Muslim populations. Because the state's Muslim population is indeed significantly made up of Arab Americans. 

 

Basically when people speak of the Muslim vote, they're saying they think Harris is going to do awful in Dearborn. Like we saw in CAIR's polling of Muslims with Michigan being an outlier where Jill Stein was like ÷28 points above Harris, who herself was getting less of the vote than Trump. 

 

Depending on how things continue, there may be a chance Jill Stein like..actually wins Dearborn. Or at least East Dearborn.

 

Maybe that won't be too large enough of a number to make a difference. Maybe Harris has won over enough conservative moderate whites with her migrant demonization that the coalitions changed.

 

It's just odd the dynamic change in how Sanders' exaggerated weakness with black voters (over the age of 55 let's be real) was made such an issue he went from frontrunner to being denied the nomination in the primary, to where Harris bleeding deep blue demographics like Arab Americans is written off as fine and even seeing liberals antagonize said group. 

 

Like imagine if Sanders 2020 supporters responded to his polling weakness with black elders with the same mocking and taunts of "well I hope they enjoy what Trump is gonna do to them if they don't like Bernie hehe".

[Communion]

8 hours ago, SlayianaGrenade said:

This is not a surprise to me at all. Hopefully the narrative that Muslim Americans in Dearborn were going to tank Harris's chances in Michigan can die now. It was never a thought rooted in reality. 

 

7 hours ago, Sannie said:

I was beginning to buy the narrative until the big, bad, promised protests at the DNC were a big ol' bust. It just showed that most of what we're hearing about how Muslims feel online are coming from, surprise, non-Muslims.

 

I promise y'all... just because you see another, far more articulate user make an argument you might like doesn't mean you yourself have to also try to reiterate or also make that argument, especially if you um.... lack the same depth and vernacular in question.

 

Like you turn what might be a reasonable thought into hedonistic, drooling liberal rage-bait that denies reality.

 

Like tell me why you think one of these results is drastically different from the other:

 

Edited Thursday at 08:41 AM by Communion

[Communion]

4 hours ago, shelven said:

A big faction of Trump/Stein voters makes sense to me, but I'm having a hard time understanding the polls that show a big faction of Trump/Gallego voters. I know Lake sucks and Arizona hates her, but isn't her entire personality just... supporting Trump and making all the same claims he does?

(There are some MAGA voters who became obsessive over a conspiracy that Kari Lake is mixed race and secretly has black heritage that for some reason became a weird theory in 2022, though I imagine Gallego being an extremely conservative-coded Dem is more-so why such is happening.)

Edited Thursday at 08:48 AM by Communion

[Virgos Groove]

8 hours ago, Harriser said:

Hillary does have talent in her mainstream media appearances. She actually has a tendency to be quite strong and straightforward in her answers in a way that people like Kamala and Obama just... aren't. I think it comes from the same place that made her weak as an overall candidate, which is her arrogance. She will answer questions straightforwardly, and as a result say things that will get her into to trouble occasionally. She does this because she is not as careful as say, a Kamala is. This same arrogance also make her unlikeable to a lot of people, and what led her to make bizzare decisions like not going to Wisconsin etc.

 

Though I admit I kind of have a soft spot for her unwieldy 'say the quiet part outloud' version of mainstream democtratic politics. There is something weirdly honest about how blatantly political she is.

I don't like Hillary at all and find her to be a despicable US chauvinist, but I do kinda agree with this. 

 

Between an imperialist who is frontal about their objectives or an imperialist who pretends to be compassionate, I do prefer the former (though I obviously hate both). Like "we came, we saw, he died" or that video of hers where she explicitly points out US encirclement of China is hapenning not because they're a threat to American citizens, but because they're a threat to American corporate power.

 

Unlike her husband or Obama, who painted their imperialism in progressive slogans, Hillary is blunt about her (disgusting) objectives. She's kinda like Trump in that respect. Dems will tell you the West needs to bomb Syria or sanction Venezuela because of democracy or something, and then Hillary and Trump will come out and say "Yeah, it's the oil. We want the oil".

 

I would love to read a no-holds-barred autobiography by her.

Edited Thursday at 10:58 AM by Virgos Groove

[Harriser]

5 hours ago, Marianah Adkins said:

Speaking of Kerry, random thought but I just realized that if Ohio went for Kerry in 2004, he wouldve won the electoral college but lost the popular vote 

Omg this is kind of a crazy fact I always thought Bush beat Kelly easily but actually it was super close, just 2 pointsi/100k votes in Ohio.

 

This also means essentially that every US election since 2000 has been a razor thin margin except for the Obama elections, I guess he was just that powerful  

 

[Vermillion]

 

[Virgos Groove]

2 minutes ago, Harriser said:

Omg this is kind of a crazy fact I always thought Bush beat Kelly easily but actually it was super close, just 2 pointsi/100k votes in Ohio.

Not only that, but the Ohio election was full of controversies.

 

Not sure if it would've been enough to tip the scales in favour of Kerry, but if it did, two consecutive elections where the winner didn't win the popular vote might just get the US to implement a two-round system or ranked choice voting.

[Marianah Adkins]

13 minutes ago, Harriser said:

Omg this is kind of a crazy fact I always thought Bush beat Kelly easily but actually it was super close, just 2 pointsi/100k votes in Ohio.

 

This also means essentially that every US election since 2000 has been a razor thin margin except for the Obama elections, I guess he was just that powerful  

 

Not to mention the fact that there were allegations of fraud in Ohio. Kerry was very very close (which I thought was impressive given Bush's popularity, fundamental advantages and Kerry's lack of appeal) but I always thought that if Kerry did win in 04 (but not the popular vote), would the movement to abolish the EC be pushed by Repubs instead?

 

Its insane though how America has became so polarized since 2000. Looking at the EC maps back then, its the same map with certain variations. This also means that the election margins have never crossed 3-4 points. Obama truly is a once in a lifetime candidate for being able to go beyond that. The guy was winning 10-15 pts in the Midwest and now we're barely scraping 2 pts to survive 

[Armani?]

Marist polls weren't bad, +1 Trump isn't exactly great for him

[Vermillion]

 

[Vermillion]

 

 

[Vermillion]

Oh.