Sannie Posted Wednesday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:52 PM 28 minutes ago, dabunique said: "Swing states" Ohio... 3 minutes ago, WildAmerican said: These polls are BAD for Harris, think Trump easily wins rn, especially since i feel they are still undercounting his support These polls have Harris up in the states she needs. Pretty sure AARP only polls its userbase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thuggin Posted Wednesday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:52 PM 29 minutes ago, dabunique said: Ohio swing state? This isn't 2012 Polls can say whatever but Trump is winning Ohio by his 2020 margin (8 points) minimum 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sannie Posted Wednesday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:59 PM 2 minutes ago, WildAmerican said: but Biden was up like 6-9 points in the upper midwest according to polls and won by a point. the same pattern would see Trump winning each by a couple of points. It's 2024, love. We have to stop trying to compare this to previous elections. This idea that any polling error = Trump's favor is not supported this time around. We are seeing much less undecideds in these polls. I get the logic, but I don't think it holds 100%. My semi-delusional take is this: if she's tied in a state like PA and up 4-6 points nationally, she's most likely ahead in said tied state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FameFatale Posted Wednesday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:59 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildAmerican Posted Wednesday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:04 PM 4 minutes ago, Sannie said: It's 2024, love. We have to stop trying to compare this to previous elections. This idea that any polling error = Trump's favor is not supported this time around. We are seeing much less undecideds in these polls. I get the logic, but I don't think it holds 100%. My semi-delusional take is this: if she's tied in a state like PA and up 4-6 points nationally, she's most likely ahead in said tied state. i hope you're right, but i'm still holding a lot of skepticism re the election. glad there's still 6 weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmonaut Posted Wednesday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:04 PM 2 minutes ago, WildAmerican said: but Biden was up like 6-9 points in the upper midwest according to polls and won by a point. the same pattern would see Trump winning each by a couple of points. And that was 2020 and this is 2024. I'm with you on the nervousness, but I don't think it's helpful to extrapolate this year's results from the 2020 polling error. There are plenty of unknowns and vastly different circumstances this time around. Also, the 2020 polls were fairly accurate when it came to Biden's vote share. They underestimated Trump's support, but in most states the polling average for Biden's vote share specifically came pretty close to the final result. Harris consolidating support and coming in close to 50% in these polls is a good sign. In any case, I don't think we know what's gonna happen with the polls vis-a-vis the final result, but doomposting about the 2016/2020 polling errors just doesn't feel productive. But who knows? It could happen! But I sincerely doubt we're gonna get the same polling error this time around, especially given how mercurial the poll results have been. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raspberries Posted Wednesday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:06 PM We're back!!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lil Mistee Posted Wednesday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:06 PM I am gonna be so fascinated with the polling data no matter who wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiejc Posted Wednesday at 03:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:14 PM (edited) I don't know why the same annoying fucks always show up at the top comments of each polling tweet Edited Wednesday at 03:15 PM by tiejc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeroSuitBritney Posted Wednesday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:15 PM Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rotunda Posted Wednesday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:18 PM Worth noting the Monmouth poll isn't head 2 head 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rotunda Posted Wednesday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:19 PM (edited) 15 minutes ago, WildAmerican said: i hope you're right, but i'm still holding a lot of skepticism re the election. glad there's still 6 weeks Skepticism is healthy, but making bold statements that a poll is bad for XYZ without factoring in the common wisdom that has been repeatedly explained that polling errors aren't uniform across elections isn't doing anything good necessarily. Edited Wednesday at 03:20 PM by Rotunda 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabunique Posted Wednesday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:20 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostBox Posted Wednesday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:20 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sannie Posted Wednesday at 03:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:21 PM 4 minutes ago, ZeroSuitBritney said: Lmao So, you're not in favor of the death penalty when it comes to the murder and/or rape of children? 1 minute ago, Rotunda said: Worth noting the Monmouth poll isn't head 2 head Yeah, IDK what they're doing over there at Monmouth, but I'll take it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostBox Posted Wednesday at 03:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:24 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shelven Posted Wednesday at 03:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:25 PM Monmouth's method is dumb and cowardly (they do it for national polls too). The major poll aggregators should penalize their ratings to disincentivize them from continuing to do this. It's ridiculous that they have an A+ rating when they're too scared to actually put a head-to-head on the record. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildAmerican Posted Wednesday at 03:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:35 PM (edited) 11 minutes ago, GhostBox said: average of these is Harris +1.3%, which is higher than Biden's winning margin of 1.1% Edited Wednesday at 03:36 PM by WildAmerican 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sannie Posted Wednesday at 03:41 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:41 PM 6 minutes ago, WildAmerican said: average of these is Harris +1.3%, which is higher than Biden's winning margin of 1.1% Crisis averted. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostBox Posted Wednesday at 03:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:56 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesegayz Posted Wednesday at 04:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:20 PM 53 minutes ago, Sannie said: So, you're not in favor of the death penalty when it comes to the murder and/or rape of children? !!!! this Im on the fence about the death penalty, mostly because of how inept our justice system currently is at delivering true due process and justice and our execution methods aren't humane. But, if you're a mass murderer, again, negligible IFF the USA can fix its judicial system it'd be a no brainer, though. Why should we 1) keep someone in prison their whole life; 2) subsidize the prison system; 3) let those who survived the victim(s) be forced to deal with a reality where they live but their loved ones don't literally, in 1988, Mondale couldn't say he supported the death penalty for his theoretically raped wife (horrendous question, talk about "bias") and he was toast thereafter Yet leftists insist how horrific and untenable it is to democracy. There's history to prove them otherwise on its political efficacy talk about the economy and immigration to win, not these single voter issues. It won't carry through in the media environment otherwise. And if it doesn't catch a viral stream online, it'll be taken out of context by MSM or other weird couch potatoes online Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vermillion Posted Wednesday at 04:30 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:30 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vermillion Posted Wednesday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:32 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostBox Posted Wednesday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:36 PM 4 minutes ago, Vermillion said: The fact we will probably see more things like this happening 💀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sciencemagic Posted Wednesday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:43 PM 13 hours ago, Sannie said: I wonder if Kamala's team already has the leaked files. If Iran is really behind this and they're trying to hurt Trump, wouldn't the Kamala Kamp be the first people they go to? If so and they're saving it... nice. And Biden dying and making Kamala the first female President right before the election would be pretty monumental. Kinda need it... This would be way too much in line with VEEP I fear (spoilers below) Quote and if the plot were to continue that would mean that there'd be a tie in the EC ksksks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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