news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[ZeroSuitBritney]

9 minutes ago, dabunique said:

Once again Trump's influence 

True but also the Democratic Party has removed abolishing the death penalty from their agenda. 

[dabunique]

 

[Communion]

36 minutes ago, Sannie said:

This is the America the GOP and leftists want. 

ddd sis that's not who's getting blamed on Twitter for this.

 

Genuinely heartbreaking that Harris would abandon abolishing the death penalty as such Injustices continue in our lives.

 

Horrifically unforced error on her and the Dems' part. What Dem-leaning indies are passionately pro-executions???

Edited Wednesday at 12:45 AM by Communion

[Sannie]

27 minutes ago, shelven said:

The underrated story of this polling cycle for me continues to be the weird gap we're consistently seeing between the head-to-head polls and the net favourability ratings of the candidates. A few of the polls which show a tight national head-to-head also show tight favourability ratings (like today's Quinnipiac poll and the most recent NYT national poll), but it feels like we're getting a lot of polls which are simultaneously showing a tight race and a big favourability gap. CNN's poll has a tied race among registered voters, but among those same registered voters, Harris does 8 points better in net favourability than Trump.

 

It's puzzling me because it feels really contradictory to basic human psychology. People generally support the things they like and don't support the things they dislike. And the reverse is also true - if you support something, you'll usually reverse-engineer your way to liking it, and if you're against something, you'll reverse-engineer your way to disliking it. I'm just having a very hard time wrapping my head around there being a sizeable amount of voters who like Harris, dislike Trump, but plan to vote for Trump anyways.

 

The way I see it, there's two possible explanations:

 

1. There's some weird weighting choices going on here. Either the favourability question is being weighted differently to the head-to-head question, or some other weighting decision is causing the small number of "I like Harris more than Trump but I'm voting Trump anyways" voters to be disproportionately represented in the head-to-heads.

 

2. There really is a meaningful number of people who plan to vote for Trump notwithstanding that they dislike him as a person and that they like Harris as a person. I guess the theory here would be that these voters have bought into the idea that Trump is better for the economy and will bring things back to pre-COVID times, so even though they dislike him and think Harris is a better person, they're reluctantly voting for Trump anyways singularly because of the economy. Again, it's a theory I have a hard time with because it's not really how human nature works (if someone thinks Trump is better for the economy, 95% of the time they'll cognitive dissonance themselves into deciding they like him), but if he ultimately wins, I guess it was true after all. 

I keep thinking about the confusing nature of this as well and have to stop because it hurts my brain. The idea that she is so much more liked but people who like her won't vote for her doesn't make sense to me so I'm going to believe in the end her net favorability will help her win.

[Blade]

 

[FameFatale]

 

[Rotunda]

22 minutes ago, woohoo said:

I've pretty much given up. This is 2016 all over again. I am not getting my hopes up at all. I think this is the last election I'm gonna be invested in it's so mentally draining. I may do quick check ins but I'm gonna get all brand new social media accounts to reset my algorithm to avoid politics and ive already decided I'm not phone banking and door knocking anymore. It's quite depressing but I'm beat down and tired. Fox News and social media have quite literally ruined an entire electorate. We lost democracy the second we got amy Barrett and it's just gonna get worse from here. 

What Michelle said

[dabunique]

 

[Relampago.]

15 minutes ago, woohoo said:

I've pretty much given up. This is 2016 all over again. I am not getting my hopes up at all. I think this is the last election I'm gonna be invested in it's so mentally draining. I may do quick check ins but I'm gonna get all brand new social media accounts to reset my algorithm to avoid politics and ive already decided I'm not phone banking and door knocking anymore. It's quite depressing but I'm beat down and tired. Fox News and social media have quite literally ruined an entire electorate. We lost democracy the second we got amy Barrett and it's just gonna get worse from here. 

Join the #TrumpWins team sis  

 

No, but really even though I think Trump is still the favorite it's not 2016, let alone 2020. The factors just don't seem to be there for that to be the case this time. Less undecideds, Trump's polling looking like his 2020 share of the vote, Harris hitting 50% in some polls (Trump too), Harris is the more "unknown" candidate so undecideds might break for her instead of Trump this time, EC bias is down, etc. 
 

Imo the polls showing that it's a close race is a good thing, despite how it makes people nervous because of how bad the polling error was. It **probably** means they're more accurate this time, or even overestimating Trump. And to be honest, I believe that if anyone is being underestimated, it's Harris, not Trump. The polls are skewed in his favor for so many pollsters this time, so they may be overestimating his support in fear of a 2016/2020 redux, but the same isn't really true for Harris's polling. 

 

My prediction that Trump wins is based off him winning with slim, slim margins in the swing states. If anyone gets a comfortable win in terms of margins, I expect it'll be Harris, not Trump. But this is probably nothing like 2016 or 2020, so if that's your only concern then don't worry.

[Communion]

5 hours ago, Communion said:

@Jackson Outline how pandering to pensioners and white supremacists in Montana or Flordia gets you the Senate. Quickly. 

 

6 minutes ago, Blade said:

 

Okay locking in @Vermillion

Harris Presidency - 297 vs 241 (WI-MI-PA-AZ-NC)

52 R-48 D Senate

Single-digit victory for Dems in House

[Relampago.]

And when Blexas/Blorida become true for the senate races (not president), then what? 

 

[Relampago.]

4 minutes ago, Communion said:

 

Okay locking in @Vermillion

Harris Presidency - 297 vs 241 (WI-MI-PA-AZ-NC)

52 R-48 D Senate

Single-digit victory for Dems in House

Not you of all the posters in here predicting Blarizona but Redvada

 

Your faith in my state surpasses even mine sis

 

The superior southwestern state will prevail in the end, let's manifest that

[Vermillion]

@Communion Girl I can't do EC numbers. Lord give me strength. 

 

I may flip on Halloween but I won't be able to do state breakdowns or Senate margins.

 

Other than NV-blue, AZ-red, NC-red. 

 

I'm staying on Trump prez, R Senate, Dem house by a hair.

 

And @Blade can once again mention how off I was in 2022.

[Vermillion]

 

[tiejc]

28 minutes ago, Communion said:

 

Okay locking in @Vermillion

Harris Presidency - 297 vs 241 (WI-MI-PA-AZ-NC)

52 R-48 D Senate

Single-digit victory for Dems in House

Interesting. What makes you think AZ could go to Kamala?

[TrymeB]

So the general consensus here is that the dems will lose the senate but narrowly flip the house? Ugh that is always dysfunctional. 

[GhostBox]

4 minutes ago, TrymeB said:

So the general consensus here is that the dems will lose the senate but narrowly flip the house? Ugh that is always dysfunctional. 

That's pretty much been the consensus of everyone since 2022. The senate map was always gonna be hard for the Dems this election. 

[Relampago.]

10 minutes ago, tiejc said:

Interesting. What makes you think AZ could go to Kamala?

No, but in all seriousness, AZ is one of the few electorates where I think Kamala's "Republican-lite"/lose by less strategy actually kinda works really well.

 

The Republicans/Independents here aren't very extreme (well.. the independents and suburban Republicans at least…) and don't like politicians who shake the table in a negative way, like Trump. If you're gonna be racist, you gotta be classy here. That's why Kari Lake and Blake Masters flop here. Arizonans love a moderate. Not to mention, Phoenix is just one massive suburb, the suburban women turning out to vote in favor of abortion are going to matter a lot.

 

The only thing holding it back is that the state is favoring Republican voters demographically right now, but they also had the advantage in 2020 and didn't pull through (although the favor is greater this time) so who knows.

 

Edited Wednesday at 01:39 AM by Relampago.

[woohoo]

42 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

Join the #TrumpWins team sis  

 

No, but really even though I think Trump is still the favorite it's not 2016, let alone 2020. The factors just don't seem to be there for that to be the case this time. Less undecideds, Trump's polling looking like his 2020 share of the vote, Harris hitting 50% in some polls (Trump too), Harris is the more "unknown" candidate so undecideds might break for her instead of Trump this time, EC bias is down, etc. 
 

Imo the polls showing that it's a close race is a good thing, despite how it makes people nervous because of how bad the polling error was. It **probably** means they're more accurate this time, or even overestimating Trump. And to be honest, I believe that if anyone is being underestimated, it's Harris, not Trump. The polls are skewed in his favor for so many pollsters this time, so they may be overestimating his support in fear of a 2016/2020 redux, but the same isn't really true for Harris's polling. 

 

My prediction that Trump wins is based off him winning with slim, slim margins in the swing states. If anyone gets a comfortable win in terms of margins, I expect it'll be Harris, not Trump. But this is probably nothing like 2016 or 2020, so if that's your only concern then don't worry.

I think phone banking has just absolutely made me lose faith in the American electorate. People in the Great Plains and the south have got to be the dumbest most gullible conspiracy ridden ******* morons on planet earth. They are literally so far gone and unreachable it physically makes me sick that so many people are just hopeless and it seems like a virus of stupidity just spreading through the country. I am just kinda defeated in knowing we aren't getting the senate either so it's gonna be a **** show deadlock for two years. 

[Temporal]

My prediction is that Kamala wins a swing state like North Carolina or Georgia before midnight ET on election night, which makes it clear she'll have an easier-than-expected path to 270...

[Jackson]

58 minutes ago, dabunique said:

 

Did they just make this up?  Coffee doesn't even cost that much now and it cost like $2-3 before COVID. Eggs still cost under $3 in most places. None of these things have any unit of measurement that would make them verifiable 

[Relampago.]

2 minutes ago, woohoo said:

I think phone banking has just absolutely made me lose faith in the American electorate. People in the Great Plains and the south have got to be the dumbest most gullible conspiracy ridden ******* morons on planet earth. They are literally so far gone and unreachable it physically makes me sick that so many people are just hopeless and it seems like a virus of stupidity just spreading through the country. I am just kinda defeated in knowing we aren't getting the senate either so it's gonna be a **** show deadlock for two years. 

I cried after my first few times phone banking tbh lol. It sucks and it's hard.

 

It's important to remember though that these people are subjected to social isolation, homogenous demographics, echo chambers and misinformation. There's a reason big metro areas are generally blue despite the cities being expensive and with their own set of problems— exposure to others. The country is basically split 50/50 with slight favor going to Democrats overall, so it's not as if there's a huge majority of these people anyways, as disheartening as their numbers are.

 

Not to mention, as indoctrinated as these people are and as scary as that seems, Project 2025 is unpopular af. Like, insanely unpopular. So many people love to talk that talk, but then when it comes down to it not even they want the extreme views the alt-right are selling. There is some sense in their nonsense. 

 

The senate is a sh*tty situation, it's true, but honestly the endless gridlock gives me some hope that something will give eventually. The senate is simply dysfunctional in the context of where our country is now, and the fact it's such a hold up gives me hope people will eventually want to do something about that. It's wishful thinking, but I don't think it's impossible. 

 

Either way, take a break sis, clear your head. We'll all be fine no matter what happens, things may get rough for awhile, but it's not the end. That fear you're feeling is just what's being put out there so that #They can win by crushing your hope, and it's not as severe as it might seem. I know some people will take issue with me saying that, but I think it's helpful to put into perspective how privileged we are to have the ability to fight for our rights and freedoms by exercising our civil duties and not fighting a civil war. 

[Lil Mistee]

1 hour ago, dabunique said:

 

where is salmon 4.99 let alone 9.99

[GhostBox]

a townhall 👏🏼👏🏼

 

[GhostBox]