Communion Posted September 25 Posted September 25 5 hours ago, Communion said: @Jackson Outline how pandering to pensioners and white supremacists in Montana or Flordia gets you the Senate. Quickly. 6 minutes ago, Blade said: Okay locking in @Vermillion Harris Presidency - 297 vs 241 (WI-MI-PA-AZ-NC) 52 R-48 D Senate Single-digit victory for Dems in House 1
Relampago. Posted September 25 Posted September 25 And when Blexas/Blorida become true for the senate races (not president), then what? 1 3
Relampago. Posted September 25 Posted September 25 4 minutes ago, Communion said: Okay locking in @Vermillion Harris Presidency - 297 vs 241 (WI-MI-PA-AZ-NC) 52 R-48 D Senate Single-digit victory for Dems in House Not you of all the posters in here predicting Blarizona but Redvada Your faith in my state surpasses even mine sis The superior southwestern state will prevail in the end, let's manifest that 1
Vermillion Posted September 25 Posted September 25 @Communion Girl I can't do EC numbers. Lord give me strength. I may flip on Halloween but I won't be able to do state breakdowns or Senate margins. Other than NV-blue, AZ-red, NC-red. I'm staying on Trump prez, R Senate, Dem house by a hair. And @Blade can once again mention how off I was in 2022. 3
tiejc Posted September 25 Posted September 25 28 minutes ago, Communion said: Okay locking in @Vermillion Harris Presidency - 297 vs 241 (WI-MI-PA-AZ-NC) 52 R-48 D Senate Single-digit victory for Dems in House Interesting. What makes you think AZ could go to Kamala?
TrymeB Posted September 25 Posted September 25 So the general consensus here is that the dems will lose the senate but narrowly flip the house? Ugh that is always dysfunctional.
GhostBox Posted September 25 Posted September 25 4 minutes ago, TrymeB said: So the general consensus here is that the dems will lose the senate but narrowly flip the house? Ugh that is always dysfunctional. That's pretty much been the consensus of everyone since 2022. The senate map was always gonna be hard for the Dems this election.
Relampago. Posted September 25 Posted September 25 (edited) 10 minutes ago, tiejc said: Interesting. What makes you think AZ could go to Kamala? No, but in all seriousness, AZ is one of the few electorates where I think Kamala's "Republican-lite"/lose by less strategy actually kinda works really well. The Republicans/Independents here aren't very extreme (well.. the independents and suburban Republicans at least…) and don't like politicians who shake the table in a negative way, like Trump. If you're gonna be racist, you gotta be classy here. That's why Kari Lake and Blake Masters flop here. Arizonans love a moderate. Not to mention, Phoenix is just one massive suburb, the suburban women turning out to vote in favor of abortion are going to matter a lot. The only thing holding it back is that the state is favoring Republican voters demographically right now, but they also had the advantage in 2020 and didn't pull through (although the favor is greater this time) so who knows. Edited September 25 by Relampago.
woohoo Posted September 25 Posted September 25 42 minutes ago, Relampago. said: Join the #TrumpWins team sis No, but really even though I think Trump is still the favorite it's not 2016, let alone 2020. The factors just don't seem to be there for that to be the case this time. Less undecideds, Trump's polling looking like his 2020 share of the vote, Harris hitting 50% in some polls (Trump too), Harris is the more "unknown" candidate so undecideds might break for her instead of Trump this time, EC bias is down, etc. Imo the polls showing that it's a close race is a good thing, despite how it makes people nervous because of how bad the polling error was. It **probably** means they're more accurate this time, or even overestimating Trump. And to be honest, I believe that if anyone is being underestimated, it's Harris, not Trump. The polls are skewed in his favor for so many pollsters this time, so they may be overestimating his support in fear of a 2016/2020 redux, but the same isn't really true for Harris's polling. My prediction that Trump wins is based off him winning with slim, slim margins in the swing states. If anyone gets a comfortable win in terms of margins, I expect it'll be Harris, not Trump. But this is probably nothing like 2016 or 2020, so if that's your only concern then don't worry. I think phone banking has just absolutely made me lose faith in the American electorate. People in the Great Plains and the south have got to be the dumbest most gullible conspiracy ridden ******* morons on planet earth. They are literally so far gone and unreachable it physically makes me sick that so many people are just hopeless and it seems like a virus of stupidity just spreading through the country. I am just kinda defeated in knowing we aren't getting the senate either so it's gonna be a **** show deadlock for two years. 2
Temporal Posted September 25 Posted September 25 My prediction is that Kamala wins a swing state like North Carolina or Georgia before midnight ET on election night, which makes it clear she'll have an easier-than-expected path to 270... 5 2
Jackson Posted September 25 Posted September 25 58 minutes ago, dabunique said: Did they just make this up? Coffee doesn't even cost that much now and it cost like $2-3 before COVID. Eggs still cost under $3 in most places. None of these things have any unit of measurement that would make them verifiable 1 1
Relampago. Posted September 25 Posted September 25 2 minutes ago, woohoo said: I think phone banking has just absolutely made me lose faith in the American electorate. People in the Great Plains and the south have got to be the dumbest most gullible conspiracy ridden ******* morons on planet earth. They are literally so far gone and unreachable it physically makes me sick that so many people are just hopeless and it seems like a virus of stupidity just spreading through the country. I am just kinda defeated in knowing we aren't getting the senate either so it's gonna be a **** show deadlock for two years. I cried after my first few times phone banking tbh lol. It sucks and it's hard. It's important to remember though that these people are subjected to social isolation, homogenous demographics, echo chambers and misinformation. There's a reason big metro areas are generally blue despite the cities being expensive and with their own set of problems— exposure to others. The country is basically split 50/50 with slight favor going to Democrats overall, so it's not as if there's a huge majority of these people anyways, as disheartening as their numbers are. Not to mention, as indoctrinated as these people are and as scary as that seems, Project 2025 is unpopular af. Like, insanely unpopular. So many people love to talk that talk, but then when it comes down to it not even they want the extreme views the alt-right are selling. There is some sense in their nonsense. The senate is a sh*tty situation, it's true, but honestly the endless gridlock gives me some hope that something will give eventually. The senate is simply dysfunctional in the context of where our country is now, and the fact it's such a hold up gives me hope people will eventually want to do something about that. It's wishful thinking, but I don't think it's impossible. Either way, take a break sis, clear your head. We'll all be fine no matter what happens, things may get rough for awhile, but it's not the end. That fear you're feeling is just what's being put out there so that #They can win by crushing your hope, and it's not as severe as it might seem. I know some people will take issue with me saying that, but I think it's helpful to put into perspective how privileged we are to have the ability to fight for our rights and freedoms by exercising our civil duties and not fighting a civil war. 2
Lil Mistee Posted September 25 Posted September 25 1 hour ago, dabunique said: where is salmon 4.99 let alone 9.99 1
spree Posted September 25 Posted September 25 1 hour ago, dabunique said: under Trump the price of a coffee is $6.99?
Sannie Posted September 25 Posted September 25 9 minutes ago, GhostBox said: Oh... okay, work. I wonder if this is why she's been so relatively quiet? Are they switching up their campaign and now going to target online media?
Blade Posted September 25 Posted September 25 3 minutes ago, Sannie said: Oh... okay, work. I wonder if this is why she's been so relatively quiet? Are they switching up their campaign and now going to target online media? Giving us dragging Gaga for not doing **** and then realizing she's been doing a lot 1 5
shelven Posted September 25 Posted September 25 I still think Fischer ultimately wins, but it's crazy that there's even a possibility that she won't 5 1
Blade Posted September 25 Posted September 25 1 minute ago, shelven said: I still think Fischer ultimately wins, but it's crazy that there's even a possibility that she won't When the senate majority is won through OH and NE 3
Sannie Posted September 25 Posted September 25 16 minutes ago, Blade said: Giving us dragging Gaga for not doing **** and then realizing she's been doing a lot When October begins and Kamala is suddenly going viral everywhere because she spent the last week silently filming for everything.
shelven Posted September 25 Posted September 25 Okay scratch that, this might be a bit too friendly of a Dem sample if they're getting a Harris +15 in NE-2 Interestingly though, the full state results aren't that far off from how Biden did in 2020 (58-39).
Rep2000 Posted September 25 Posted September 25 Okay. October is right around the corner. So what do you all have on your October Susprise(s) bingo chart? My predictions are (another) Middle East war, but no migrant caravan.
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