GhostBox Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Why is he always whining 💀 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Lightbringer007 Posted September 24 Popular Post Share Posted September 24 gag them for me jessica! 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woohoo Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 So girls, what country are we fleeing too of Kamala loses because as far as my anxiety is concerned until she's up 20 I won't feel sane, even then I'm still not a fan of polls. This election has done a number on my mental health. Even when I avoid all things political it's still in the back of my mind. Trump truly has me shaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Relampago. Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 I lowkey feel like the polls are off and are underestimating one of them I fear that whoever wins will probably win most of the swing states, and our outcomes will look like this: Or this: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armani? Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 15 hours ago, Vermillion said: So she's relying on a lot of pacs not officially with her campaign? Honestly she's doing great though if the AA vote in recent polls hold nationally. But she's gonna have to invest more if her campaign is trying to get 2008 or 2012 margins. Otherwise something around 2016 margins seems the most possible right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save-Me-Oprah Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 it's giving: 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vermillion Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vermillion Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vermillion Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midnightdawn Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 (edited) Senate Democrats are worried pollsters are once again undercounting the Trump vote and say Vice President Harris's slim lead in battleground states, especially Pennsylvania, is cause for serious concern. One Democratic senator who requested anonymity acknowledged both Clinton and President Biden were doing better in the polls against Trump in 2016 and 2020, respectively, than Harris is performing right now. "That's ominous. There's no question that is concerning, but you're working as hard as you can work, no matter what. My sense there's not a lot more you can do than we're already doing," the lawmaker said. The Democratic senator said pollsters have trouble gauging Trump's support because many voters who support him may not want to interact with them or don't want to speak candidly about their political views. Public polls had Trump trailing Biden by an average of 5 percentage points, consistently, during the final two months of the 2020 presidential campaign. But he ended up losing the key state of Pennsylvania to Biden by only 1.2 percentage points — 50 percent to 48.8 percent. Likewise, public polls showed Trump trailing Clinton by between 3.5 points and 7 points in Pennsylvania during the final eight weeks of the 2016 campaign. Yet Trump ended up winning Pennsylvania despite never leading Clinton in any of the public polling averages of the Keystone State. What's alarming for Democrats is that Trump has a track record of outperforming the polls, especially in the Midwestern states Harris is counting on. "Figuring out the turnout is the hardest thing out there. This cycle there may be a surprise Trump vote and a surprise Harris vote," Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said. "I, too, share the concern that there are going to be some surprises. What accentuates my concern is when you poll people who have not voted in '20 but are planning to vote today, they are disproportionately Trump voters," Lake said. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4891637-democratic-lawmakers-worry-pollsters/ Edited September 24 by midnightdawn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armani? Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 It doesn't erase the possible surprise Trump voters but one could say the dynamic is a bit different. People are much more enthusiastic for voting her instead of voting against Trump, which is something Biden trailed horribly in. And her favorability rating is even or slight net positive, which is something I'm pretty Hilary was doing badly in as the race grew near, but someone correct me if I'm wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leppie Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 32 minutes ago, midnightdawn said: What's alarming for Democrats is that Trump has a track record of outperforming the polls, especially in the Midwestern states Harris is counting on. "Figuring out the turnout is the hardest thing out there. This cycle there may be a surprise Trump vote and a surprise Harris vote," Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said. "I, too, share the concern that there are going to be some surprises. What accentuates my concern is when you poll people who have not voted in '20 but are planning to vote today, they are disproportionately Trump voters," Lake said. That does not sound good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armani? Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elusive Chanteuse Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 22 minutes ago, Leppie said: That does not sound good Oh god I'm so worried about this election Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaggedGalaxy Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 ya'll are always dooming in this thread 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderland Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 That was 100% Joe Manchin speaking. They're calling him a Democrat as cover 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raspberries Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabunique Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabunique Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armani? Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Another bad poll for Trump https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/48th-edition-fall-2024 A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School indicates that among 18-to-29-year-olds nationwide, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a commanding 31-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in a multi-candidate matchup. The 48th Harvard Youth Poll shows Harris leading Trump 64% to 32% among likely voters in a two-way hypothetical scenario with her advantage expanding as young people become more engaged in the electoral process. In a two-way contest, Kamala Harris leads Trump 54%-33% among all young adults, 59%-33% among registered voters, and 64%-32% among likely voters. Notably, the gender gap, which stood at 17 points in the Spring poll, has nearly doubled to 30 points. While both men and women are moving toward Harris, the rate of female support eclipses male support. Likely male voters: Harris 53% - Trump 36% Likely female voters: Harris 70% - Trump 23% 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byzantium Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 2 hours ago, midnightdawn said: Senate Democrats are worried pollsters are once again undercounting the Trump vote and say Vice President Harris's slim lead in battleground states, especially Pennsylvania, is cause for serious concern. One Democratic senator who requested anonymity acknowledged both Clinton and President Biden were doing better in the polls against Trump in 2016 and 2020, respectively, than Harris is performing right now. "That's ominous. There's no question that is concerning, but you're working as hard as you can work, no matter what. My sense there's not a lot more you can do than we're already doing," the lawmaker said. The Democratic senator said pollsters have trouble gauging Trump's support because many voters who support him may not want to interact with them or don't want to speak candidly about their political views. Public polls had Trump trailing Biden by an average of 5 percentage points, consistently, during the final two months of the 2020 presidential campaign. But he ended up losing the key state of Pennsylvania to Biden by only 1.2 percentage points — 50 percent to 48.8 percent. Likewise, public polls showed Trump trailing Clinton by between 3.5 points and 7 points in Pennsylvania during the final eight weeks of the 2016 campaign. Yet Trump ended up winning Pennsylvania despite never leading Clinton in any of the public polling averages of the Keystone State. What's alarming for Democrats is that Trump has a track record of outperforming the polls, especially in the Midwestern states Harris is counting on. "Figuring out the turnout is the hardest thing out there. This cycle there may be a surprise Trump vote and a surprise Harris vote," Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said. "I, too, share the concern that there are going to be some surprises. What accentuates my concern is when you poll people who have not voted in '20 but are planning to vote today, they are disproportionately Trump voters," Lake said. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4891637-democratic-lawmakers-worry-pollsters/ I have this concern too but if it makes anyone feel a little more comfortable, the polls of 2020 =/= 2024. Pollsters readjust their methodology each cycle. Another thing to note is in 2016 and 2020, the margins that Clinton and Biden had were largely because Trump was polling in the low 40s. This year he is polling closer to where he ended up in those prior elections which maybe suggests that polls are doing better this year. Also, I think Harris is a better candidate than Biden and Clinton at generating voter enthusiasm so unlike in 2016 and 2020, I think she will get a larger share of the undecided voters. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karron0624 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 7 hours ago, woohoo said: So girls, what country are we fleeing too of Kamala loses because as far as my anxiety is concerned until she's up 20 I won't feel sane, even then I'm still not a fan of polls. This election has done a number on my mental health. Even when I avoid all things political it's still in the back of my mind. Trump truly has me shaking My husband is a mexican citizen, so ill see yall there! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byzantium Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 1 minute ago, karron0624 said: My husband is a mexican citizen, so ill see yall there! Moving to Mexico City would low key be an upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armani? Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 A 70% Dem margin for Young women would signal Young White women are very near 60% for Kamala 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FameFatale Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 12 hours ago, Wonderland said: If she's smart she'll frame it and put it up for auction. Imagine how much the MAGA world would pay for a bill he touched You know what's funny is she was on Fox and Friends this morning talking about it. It was all staged. She said her cousin owns the store and the Trump team called beforehand asking if they could give $100 to a family while checking out buying groceries and they chose her to look like she was buying groceries for the photo op She didn't even use the $100 bill and still has it. They're going to frame it And she was praising how amazing Trump was like North Korea style pandering. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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