Sannie Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 (edited) 6 minutes ago, byzantium said: Does that poll go back to the same people? Otherwise it's entirely possible, that you could get a 10 point shift just from having a different sample. Sure, but then no poll would ever be truly accurate. I think the post above makes the most sense: the real number is somewhere between the two clear outliers. This particular poll seemingly has an R+3 or 4 bias so they may be purposely polling different people. Edited September 23 by Sannie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rotunda Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 5 minutes ago, byzantium said: Does that poll go back to the same people? Otherwise it's entirely possible, that you could get a 10 point shift just from having a different sample. It's not doubtful that both poll results were correctly gathered. It is doubtful that both accurately reflect the population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armani? Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 12 minutes ago, byzantium said: Does that poll go back to the same people? Otherwise it's entirely possible, that you could get a 10 point shift just from having a different sample. But 10 point shift in a state from a A rank poller being accurate? Now... The margin of error is not 10 points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostBox Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 with a tied race like we have now we are gonna get some wild numbers in both directions sometimes. Just like that WI number for Harris 💀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byzantium Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 56 minutes ago, Armani? said: +5 Kamala or +5 Trump in Arizona will not happen. I didn't say Trump couldn't win the state But anywhere from a +2 Trump to +2 Kamala margin is consistent with these polls being correct which is what I think we all know is the realm of possibility for AZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armani? Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Just now, byzantium said: But anywhere from a +2 Trump to +2 Kamala margin is consistent with these polls being correct which is what I think we all know is the realm of possibility for AZ. True, it's just that specific poll is throwing off the trend in the averages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byzantium Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 3 minutes ago, Armani? said: But 10 point shift in a state from a A rank poller being accurate? Now... The margin of error is not 10 points If the "real" shift went from Trump +1 to Trump +2, a shift from Kamala +5 to Trump +5 is within the margin of error. The first poll would have been 5 points off and the second one 3 points off. all I'm saying is these polling results are normal polling results we would expect in a close race without something being inherently wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byzantium Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 10 minutes ago, Rotunda said: It's not doubtful that both poll results were correctly gathered. It is doubtful that both accurately reflect the population. What the poll says is that the election will be decided within the margin of error and that AZ should be correctly categorized as a swing state. That seems pretty accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shelven Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Obviously at least one, and possibly both, of the NYT's Arizona polls was an outlier (there wasn't an actual 10-point shift in the electorate away from Harris after the debate), but I think @byzantium and I are just trying to caution people away from automatically writing off today's poll because it looks worse than the others. While today's poll can be an outlier, it's also possible that the first poll was the outlier and this one was the accurate state of the race all along, or (like Elliott Morris said) that the reality is somewhere in the middle at Trump +1 or Trump +2. Denying the possibility that a "bad" poll for the Dems is actually the real one, particularly when that poll comes from a very good pollster, is why everyone was so stunned when Hillary lost. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byzantium Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 1 minute ago, Rotunda said: I feel like you're deliberately missing what I'm saying so imma just let it ride. I feel like that is a deliberately hostile read of what I am saying. I don't really understand why either poll doesn't reflect the state within the margin of error. Unless you are saying we should look at the polls together and think there is a marked shift…but that isn't really how we should look at polls. Each is an independent sample. it would be different if the NYT poll went back to the same exact people and there was a 10 point shift. That itself would be a fascinating datapoint, but probably statistically an outlier that would be an error to add much weight to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClashAndBurn Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 I think the real takeaway of the polling data is that "they're eating the dogs and cats" isn't as big of a turnoff as liberals were hoping, and that America is much more of a xenophobic shithole of a country than they ever liked to admit. Kamala knows that, which is why instead of trying to change the conversation around immigration, she and Joe Biden have chased Donald Trump to the right and adopted many of his policies, enabling him to tug the Overton window even further right and make more untenable demands. It's the path of least resistance for her 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FameFatale Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byzantium Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Armani? said: True, it's just that specific poll is throwing off the trend in the averages Honestly, I would not mind the average being off in trump's favor. Maybe the campaign will focus less on AZ and allow Kamala to have a victory there. Edited September 23 by byzantium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nadiamendell Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Meanwhile.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armani? Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 The poll, would have been more alligned with trends if it was +5 Trump the 1st time, then +5 Harris now. Same outcome, but at least consistent with the other poll trends It's hard to explain the results of the poll face value & the changing race since the debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blade Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Texas Hispanics going to move further right in 2024 it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blade Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 1 minute ago, nadiamendell said: Meanwhile.... Call me Jill Stein cause I'm clueless when it comes to foreign policy, but I don't understand why we need to send troops whenever there's higher than normal tension in the ME. Kind of defeats the purpose of us not being in an active war since 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lil Mistee Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 A ten point swing in trumps favor in the Arizona poll from Sienna… WHAT? Like even if this was in Harris favor I'd be questioning it, what the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byzantium Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 2 minutes ago, nadiamendell said: Meanwhile.... The Biden Administration has been such an incredible foreign policy failure. It's a period marked by a lack of leadership in a time that needed leadership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainMusic Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 4 hours ago, Armani? said: Trump got 11% of the Black vote in this poll for Georgia which is actually in line with almost every other state poll this cycle, albeit at the ceiling. Emerson has 11% SSRS has 10% Insider Advantage has 10% Atlanta Journal has 9% Quinnipiac has 8% & The White support is 70% for Trump here, another ceiling. The issue is Kamala tends to have too many undecideds for the Black vote. She's at 82% Black support here. She will outperform the polls just based on this. North Carolina has the same issue. 9% Black support for Trump but 84% for Kamala. Many undecideds in the poll Hmm it's possible though that many of those undecideds are actually secret Trump voters like we've seen before. It seems like way more black people are supporting Trump this time and that may not be represented in polling. Hopefully I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bears01 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 The worst news of that Siena poll is Trump+5 in AZ Everything else is really manageable or expected. I really think if Kamala's within 2 in NC she'd honestly be winning the election (because NC is truly the reddest state of the 3) but yeah, +5 out of AZ is worrying. It just shows Biden's OG strategy that yeah, the big 3 rust belt states are MUST win above anything else, and luckily for now, she's polling very strong in all 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armani? Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 25 minutes ago, CaptainMusic said: Hmm it's possible though that many of those undecideds are actually secret Trump voters like we've seen before. It seems like way more black people are supporting Trump this time and that may not be represented in polling. Hopefully I'm wrong. With the national AA crosstab in both CBS & NBC increasing to 85% for Kamala that's been a lower #/outlier from the swing state polls for months till now, that's probably not likely. Also the fundamentals are not likely either. The last time the GOP got 15% or more of the Black vote in was nearly 50 years ago. 14% was over 40 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byzantium Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 1 minute ago, Bears01 said: The worst news of that Siena poll is Trump+5 in AZ Everything else is really manageable or expected. I really think if Kamala's within 2 in NC she'd honestly be winning the election (because NC is truly the reddest state of the 3) but yeah, +5 out of AZ is worrying. It just shows Biden's OG strategy that yeah, the big 3 rust belt states are MUST win above anything else, and luckily for now, she's polling very strong in all 3 AZ, while a swing state though, is not that pivotal though when the other swing states all have 15+ electoral votes. (Wisconsin is 10 but I think it's statistically unlikely to go in a different direction than Michigan). Of course a landslide would be preferable but everyone would choose NC over AZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClashAndBurn Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 3 hours ago, thesegayz said: And stop dragging users for having an opinion when it's not yours. You literally do this all the ******* time when you're in my notifications and I haven't said a single word to you or about you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vermillion Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Tejanos getting more conservative is not surprising for anyone that's followed those trends in that state the last decade. Also the gaslighting on military brass categorization of "active" troops continues to be galling and mind-numbing. I guess unless they're actively on the battlefield that's the categorization we're using? We have U.S. special forces currently actively working in Ukraine, Afghanistan, Yemen, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel, Egypt, Syria, Turkey, Libya, Pakistan, etc. But I guess the layman naive (as they see it) citizen here is not allowed to question this. And on it goes… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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