news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[Sannie]

Just now, Raspberries said:

MICHIGAN: 52-47 Harris
WISCONSIN: 50-49 Harris
PENNSYLVANIA: 49-49 TIE

 

Marist

This with the Suffolk poll, I'll take it.

 

Not Michigan pulling through after all the fear mongering.  

[Rotunda]

 

[teresaguidice]

probably too cynical but i really don't think the pet eating stuff is that harmful to trump. its another in a long list of shocking egregious sound bites that democrats and the media fixate on but don't actually move swing voters. the statement fits in nicely into the "that's just trump being hyperbolic and funny about the real issue of XYZ" bucket that swing voters wave away, in this case being some version of lawless immigrant crime making everyone unsafe or whatever. its perpetuated a long news cycle on immigration which, while not the ideal version obviously, is still what trump's campaign ultimately wants right now. 

Edited 13 hours ago by teresaguidice

[Sannie]

Just now, Raspberries said:

MICHIGAN: 52-47 Harris
WISCONSIN: 50-49 Harris
PENNSYLVANIA: 49-49 TIE

 

Marist

This with the Suffolk poll, I'll take it.

 

Not Michigan pulling through after all the fear mongering.  

[shelven]

Nothing surprising about those Marist polls I guess. As we already knew, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are both going to be extremely close unless there's another systemic polling error.

[Jay07]

Pennsylvania... should she have gone with Shapiro? After the initial excitement, has there been a material benefit to choosing Walz? 

[Sannie]

2 minutes ago, Jay07 said:

Pennsylvania... should she have gone with Shapiro? After the initial excitement, has there been a material benefit to choosing Walz? 

are you paying attention lol? walz has the highest favorables among anyone in the race and her polling has only gotten better post his pick and then the debate.

[Sannie]

2 minutes ago, Jay07 said:

Pennsylvania... should she have gone with Shapiro? After the initial excitement, has there been a material benefit to choosing Walz? 

are you paying attention lol? walz has the highest favorables among anyone in the race and her polling has only gotten better post his pick and then the debate.

[Jay07]

Just now, Sannie said:

are you paying attention lol? walz has the highest favorables among anyone in the race and her polling has only gotten better post his pick and then the debate.

No not really that's why I asked that specific question but thanks, I guess.

[Relampago.]

 

Sometimes I just… I wonder if I understand the English language the same as everyone else

 

[Blade]

47 minutes ago, Communion said:

cc: @Bears01

I think my confusion is that the turnout is... not even 1/10th from 2020 in some areas. There's rightward shifts in places like Orange due to low turnout.

 

Though doing digging shows me election twitter is interested in this race solely cause Republicans are making insane claims about Trump winning NJ?

Predicated on the claim of "race depolarization" and thus this "proving" race depolarization isn't real or happening?

 

(But also like... one just has to look around or talk to people in NJ to know race depolarization is not real??? dddd )

 

Like this majority-black district is not voting for Trump even after 2022's redistricting dddd:

Not much to go off but interesting nonetheless

[Relampago.]

Ouu back to square one in PA.

 

Yeah she needs to really try to go in on AZ/NC. I think NV will be good on its own but PA being so dicey is just  She really needs to try and open those other paths cause Trump has NOTHING if he doesn't win PA and she solidifies NC/AZ as much as possible. 

 

I don't think there's much left she can do there either, her entire campaign is basically camped out there most of the time.

 

[Sannie]

3 minutes ago, Jay07 said:

No not really that's why I asked that specific question but thanks, I guess.

Sorry queen.

 

Technically nobody knows what power a VP pick has, but we do know Walz is very popular and just so damn good on stage. He may not be helping a lot, but he sure as hell ain't hurting.

[Blade]

 

[Bamboo]

Im pretty confident she would have Michigan in the bag if the election happened today. The polling out of there has just been insanely favorable for her lately. Pennsylvania perpetually being a toss up is 

 

I hope she wins handedly MI, WI, and NV along with at least one of NC or GA so we don't have to spend weeks agonizing over a razor thin PA margin 

[Ashley Banks]

3 minutes ago, teresaguidice said:

probably too cynical but i really don't think the pet eating stuff is that harmful to trump. its another in a long list of shocking egregious sound bites that democrats and the media fixate on but it don't actually move swing voters. the statement fits in nicely into the "that's just trump being hyperbolic and funny about the real issue of XYZ" bucket that swing voters wave away, in this case being some version of lawless immigrant crime making everyone unsafe or whatever. its perpetuated a long news cycle on immigration which, while not the ideal version obviously, is still what trump's campaign ultimately wants right now. 

I actually agree. I think any undecided voter who wasn't bothered by the million other offensive things Trump says won't be moved by this one. Even JD Vance said he's fine "creating stories" like this as long as it keeps the conversation on immigration. But I also don't think it moved anyone to him, because the only people who believe it (according to polls) are his supporters, so it was a missed opportunity to hit an issue that he's typically very strong on at the debates. 

[Blade]

 

[Bamboo]

PA has only gone red 1x in the past 8 presidential elections. I think it'll end up going blue by a narrow margin, but I'm dreading the wait till the final call

[Blade]

[Rotunda]

10 minutes ago, Jay07 said:

Pennsylvania... should she have gone with Shapiro? After the initial excitement, has there been a material benefit to choosing Walz? 

Playing the counterfactual game is hard. Shapiro probably makes PA a bit more secure, but he also puts a magnifying glass on the Dems' Palestine position and nobody knows what a news cycle flooded with True Crime analysis of that "suicide case" would have done. 

[Jay07]

4 minutes ago, Sannie said:

Sorry queen.

 

Technically nobody knows what power a VP pick has, but we do know Walz is very popular and just so damn good on stage. He may not be helping a lot, but he sure as hell ain't hurting.

Another question. Is there a viable path without PA? Don't know the intricacies of the electoral collage so I'm genuinely asking here.

[Communion]

2020 - Michigan (CNN Exit Poll):

Total: Biden: 50.62% (+2.78)

Indies: Biden: 51% (+6)

White: Trump: 55% (+11)

Black: Biden: 92% (+85)

Men: Trump: 54% (+10) 

Women: Biden: 57% (+14)

 

2024 - Michigan (Marist):

Total: Harris: 52% (+5) [+2.22]

Indies: Harris: 49% (+2) [-4]

White: Trump: 50% (+2) [+9]

Black: Harris: 77% (+56) [-29]

Men: Trump: 52% (+5) [+5]

Women: Harris: 56% (+15) [+1]

 

[Redstreak]

13 minutes ago, teresaguidice said:

probably too cynical but i really don't think the pet eating stuff is that harmful to trump. its another in a long list of shocking egregious sound bites that democrats and the media fixate on but don't actually move swing voters. the statement fits in nicely into the "that's just trump being hyperbolic and funny about the real issue of XYZ" bucket that swing voters wave away, in this case being some version of lawless immigrant crime making everyone unsafe or whatever. its perpetuated a long news cycle on immigration which, while not the ideal version obviously, is still what trump's campaign ultimately wants right now. 

We did have a specific poll that found a majority found those statements of his "weird". Whether it moves people away alone I don't know but in conjunction with the whole vibe of the campaign recently + Vance it helps. If we're expecting razor thin margins any defections or stay homes can make a difference

[Blade]

 

[Sannie]

2 minutes ago, Blade said:

QUEEN OF THE WHITES.

 

1 minute ago, Jay07 said:

Another question. Is there a viable path without PA? Don't know the intricacies of the electoral collage so I'm genuinely asking here.

Depends on your definition of "viable". Technically, yes, but it would be very hard considering what she'd have to pick up.

 

Without PA, she would have to win AZ, NV, and then either GA or NC.

 

Without PA, Trump cannot win even if he does win AZ, NV, GA, and NC. He'd have to pick off one of the other rustbelts.

 

I like to play around on this website to see the different paths: https://www.270towin.com/