news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[Lil Mistee]

 

 

it's like so ******* over like omgg like she's gonna flop the debate and say some dumb **** about buttering up a chicken and how she can crack an egg with one hand it's over ! 

[shelven]

38 minutes ago, Blade said:

this is indefensible. **** this stupid cünt.

Jill Stein single-handedly undoing the efforts of every leftist who tries to explain why Horseshoe Theory isn't real is just...  The merits of the Green Party as an overall entity aside, it's very hard at this point to argue against Stein as an individual being an attention-seeking grifter. 

[GhostBox]

If I in the past could still find hope in Biden's chances when every poll was against him I'm sure you guys can find some hope when literally every poll the past 3 weeks have been in Harris's favor except one 💀

 

[Blade]

Wasserman also pointing out that the EC bias is not as bad as 2020. Rightward shifts in CA, NY, and FL can contribute to a close national result while the swing states are as swingy as ever, not trending red.

[shelven]

9 minutes ago, Blade said:

Wasserman also pointing out that the EC bias is not as bad as 2020. Rightward shifts in CA, NY, and FL can contribute to a close national result while the swing states are as swingy as ever, not trending red.

I know the Electoral College is an entirely different beast than House-level gerrymandering, but it's also worth remembering that the GOP won the House popular vote by almost 3% in 2022 but ended up with an essentially tied House (222-213). The national vote discrepancy isn't always this huge pro-GOP benefit, it just feels that way lately because of the last two presidential elections.

 

Like I lowkey celebrate every time I see a Florida poll where Trump has a sizeable lead because it means that Florida's probably pulling the national popular vote to the right and reducing the Republcians' overall EC bias

[dman4life]

Let's just save the meltdowns for if she fumbles the debate. No reason to be carrying on like this over a poll. Michelle Obama warned us this was coming.

 

That said, I'm not understand why she still doesn't have any policy on her site. It's just such an unnecessary error.

 

 

Edited September 8 by dman4life

[GhostBox]

 

[Armani?]

It's only one polling site but the favorability is concerning for Kamala on Civiqs which is B Rated for some sub groups.

 

Donald Trump is 47% Positive, 50% Negative with Hispanic men now. Overall Hispanic favorability of Trump has shifted 6 points to him compared to their results 2020, now 57% unfavorable, 40% favorable.

 

Black men is very minor, it's up 3 points to 16% favorable for Trump which may just be noise. The overall Black vote only shifted 2 points compared to September 2020

[GhostBox]

16 minutes ago, dman4life said:

Let's just save the meltdowns for if she fumbles the debate. No reason to be carrying on like this over a poll. Michelle Obama warned us this was coming.

 

 

Agreed. 
 

she needs a good debate. Or to just have a better one than Trump. 
 

he probably has the most to lose/win with this debate. 

[Gottasadae]

1 hour ago, Blade said:

this is indefensible. **** this stupid cünt.

Well and some folks here are still trust in this hag and her pretentious campaign 

 

[Lil Mxnster]

I never took it for granted that Kamala was going to win, but I'd be lying if i said I didn't think that Trump had a real chance of winning yet, especially after being convicted on 34 felony counts and giving that embarrassing interview with the NABJ  There're incels, conspiracists and morons voters everywhere and they're willing to condemn their beloved country and their loved ones to whatever absurd plans this clown fascist has, I fear  I still have faith in the Blue ticket, tho.

[Gottasadae]

37 minutes ago, dman4life said:

Let's just save the meltdowns for if she fumbles the debate. No reason to be carrying on like this over a poll. Michelle Obama warned us this was coming.

 

That said, I'm not understand why she still doesn't have any policy on her site. It's just such an unnecessary error.

 

 

I mean, she's not Biden, she can speak and joke organically, so I think she will be ok but as a former prosecutor she need a "You'd be in jail" moment so badly, because this is what makes headlines  

[Gottasadae]

2 minutes ago, Lil Mxnster said:

I never took it for granted that Kamala was going to win, but I'd be lying if i said I didn't think that Trump had a real chance of winning yet, especially after being convicted on 34 felony counts and giving that embarrassing interview with the NABJ  There're incels, conspiracists and morons voters everywhere and they're willing to condemn their beloved country and their loved ones to whatever absurd plans this clown fascist has, I fear  I still have faith in the Blue ticket, tho.

Nowadays, majority of ppl are care about high prices and inflation, so this is what motivates them to vote for Trump, especially when they clearly remember that during his term everything was cheaper as twice  I hate him with all my guts but unfortunately it is what it is  So they don't care about his felonies, about his stupidity, about his crazy plans, they're living in this dream that everything will be fine again under his administration 

[VOSS]

 

[Sannie]

1 hour ago, GhostBox said:

If I in the past could still find hope in Biden's chances when every poll was against him I'm sure you guys can find some hope when literally every poll the past 3 weeks have been in Harris's favor except one 💀

 

I really don't understand the meltdowns every time a singular poll doesn't fall in line with the others. Maybe it's just that my social media algorithm isn't bombarding me with negativity, but I'm not feeling the same negativity so many others are. My TikTok is almost exclusively positivity... which is odd because I don't really interact with politics on there lol.

 

1 hour ago, shelven said:

I know the Electoral College is an entirely different beast than House-level gerrymandering, but it's also worth remembering that the GOP won the House popular vote by almost 3% in 2022 but ended up with an essentially tied House (222-213). The national vote discrepancy isn't always this huge pro-GOP benefit, it just feels that way lately because of the last two presidential elections.

 

Like I lowkey celebrate every time I see a Florida poll where Trump has a sizeable lead because it means that Florida's probably pulling the national popular vote to the right and reducing the Republcians' overall EC bias

Also, there's this idea that the MOE always means "against the Dems" when it doesn't mean that. The MOE could also mean the Dems win bigger than what the polls shows. I don't get the doom mongering. The race will tighten, maybe even uncomfortably so, but even Kamala is out here saying they're still the underdog. We're not going to go into election day with a big lead, but that doesn't mean anything at the end of the day.

 

48 minutes ago, Lil Mxnster said:

I never took it for granted that Kamala was going to win, but I'd be lying if i said I didn't think that Trump had a real chance of winning yet, especially after being convicted on 34 felony counts and giving that embarrassing interview with the NABJ  There're incels, conspiracists and morons voters everywhere and they're willing to condemn their beloved country and their loved ones to whatever absurd plans this clown fascist has, I fear  I still have faith in the Blue ticket, tho.

Trump can absolutely win and it's important to note this. All we can do is take this one day at a time. The melting down over one damn poll is so tired.

[Armani?]

 

[Sannie]

5 hours ago, Blankspace2010 said:

If the election was tomorrow - Harris would lose

This is objectively false lol? Not that it works this way, but these are the state averages:

 

 

3 hours ago, Relampago. said:

I've been saying it's over girls. Kamala gave us a masterclass in how to ruin momentum in a campaign. Her main critique that's been sticking is no one knows her policies or what she believed as Vice President and we don't know them now. 

 

The debate won't change a thing either, she's ruined her chance. If you are all very scared of a Trump presidency, I would start making arrangements for how you'll be living the next 4 years. I know I have.

 

3 hours ago, Relampago. said:

Also, now that the rose colored glasses are fully off— I don't expect her to do that good in the debate either. 

 

If she can't even face the media head on like Trump does and won't do as many interviews, then she is coming across as unprepared and unwilling to face pushback. And I can see now why her team was pushing so heavily for open mics, they wanted an "I'm speaking" moment so badly but now they're not getting it. 

 

A disappointing campaign, I shouldn't be surprised anymore though.

This isn't an attempt to call you out, but you're just spouting right-wing talking points right now. It's clear you're being fed this negativity by social media and you're falling for it. Harris is literally on the campaign trail, stopping in a new place every single day, talking to thousands of voters about her policies and her plans as President. She is not stopping for the media, because the few times she has, they have bombarded her with the most asinine bullshit that is about Trump and Trump only. Her focus is the people, the voters, the ones who will actually decide this election. How that is being spun into something negative is absolutely wild, especially when you take into account that old-school media and its impact has been dwindling for years now. We need to stop comparing her to Trump's constant interviews; he only does them because his desperation for attention. 

 

"If she can't face the media head on..." Again, a right-wing narrative. She has been in politics for years; she knows how the handle the media. This is a deliberate tactic on their end because of their focus on the American people and talking with voters. And even when she does stop for the media, as I mentioned, they are stupid. They spin narratives, they flat-out lie. Why give them the ammo? The right has been calling the media "fake" for ten years now, and now they're suddenly upset Harris isn't catering to them? She's not catering to the "fake news media that is the enemy of the people" and they're angry? That should tell you how genuine these critiques are.

 

This campaign has been run near flawlessly... and that is an objective fact considering the short amount of time they've had. Biden was being absolutely TROUNCED prior to dropping out and Kamala has given the Dems a real fighting chance. Again, how that's being spun into something negative is absolutely wild and not rooted in reality. The polling averages still have her up in WI and MI, tied in PA, and tied or very close in AZ and NV, and rapidly closing the gap in GA and NC. Look at this objectively. We're now post Labor Day when things are going to begin picking up. You have to be prepared for things to get rocky, but that's not a cause for concern or melting down. 

 

You just have to stop letting the social media narratives drive your opinion on this. All objective data is in Harris' favor, even if only slightly so.

[shelven]

If Harris ends up losing, there will be a lot of different thinkpieces about her campaign and what she could have done differently, but I think the actual reason will have simply been that the election was already decided over a year ago when most Americans' views on the economy and inflation became settled in. People decided that Biden/the Dems were to blame for those issues, that Trump was capable of fixing it and that his ability to fix it was more important than his threats to democracy and his increasingly unhinged behaviour.

 

To be clear, I'm not saying that is what's going to happen - I've maintained that I think voters care about January 6 and Trump's threats to democracy more than what Twitter circles would have you believe, as election denialism (along with abortion) was the main unifying thread that connected all the GOP candidates who tanked in midterm races where they should have been favoured. But in the event that Trump does manage to overcome all that and win anyways, I don't think Harris could have done much differently in hindsight to prevent it, since the takeaway will have been that voters cared more about returning to a pre-2020 economy than any other issue and they believe that Trump can do that.

[Sannie]

2 hours ago, Blade said:

this is indefensible. **** this stupid cünt.

What's wild to me is how this kind of thing happens over and over again with people on the left. The moment big names get any kind of push back, they immediately go MASK OFF and become right wingers. It happened with that woman from TYT (Anna?). 

 

6 hours ago, CaptainMusic said:

Kamala STILL not having any policies on her website is so ridiculous, and the NYT poll  

 

Unless the debate is a disaster for Trump this isn't looking good

 

 

This is one thing I'm a little confused about. While I do not believe anyone IRL cares about a website, it's one of the few talking points they could easily crush and in a very easy way. 

 

At the same time, we know the very people complaining about this would then comb through her policy pages and point out and blow up every little thing they don't like. I think the fear the campaign has when it comes to giving people ammo sometimes flies a little too close to the sun. I get it, you don't want to give anyone a reason to critique, but sometimes you have to just bite the bullet.

[Relampago.]

24 minutes ago, Sannie said:

This isn't an attempt to call you out, but you're just spouting right-wing talking points right now. It's clear you're being fed this negativity by social media and you're falling for it. Harris is literally on the campaign trail, stopping in a new place every single day, talking to thousands of voters about her policies and her plans as President. She is not stopping for the media, because the few times she has, they have bombarded her with the most asinine bullshit that is about Trump and Trump only. Her focus is the people, the voters, the ones who will actually decide this election. How that is being spun into something negative is absolutely wild, especially when you take into account that old-school media and its impact has been dwindling for years now. We need to stop comparing her to Trump's constant interviews; he only does them because his desperation for attention. 

 

"If she can't face the media head on..." Again, a right-wing narrative. She has been in politics for years; she knows how the handle the media. This is a deliberate tactic on their end because of their focus on the American people and talking with voters. And even when she does stop for the media, as I mentioned, they are stupid. They spin narratives, they flat-out lie. Why give them the ammo? The right has been calling the media "fake" for ten years now, and now they're suddenly upset Harris isn't catering to them? She's not catering to the "fake news media that is the enemy of the people" and they're angry? That should tell you how genuine these critiques are.

 

This campaign has been run near flawlessly... and that is an objective fact considering the short amount of time they've had. Biden was being absolutely TROUNCED prior to dropping out and Kamala has given the Dems a real fighting chance. Again, how that's being spun into something negative is absolutely wild and not rooted in reality. The polling averages still have her up in WI and MI, tied in PA, and tied or very close in AZ and NV, and rapidly closing the gap in GA and NC. Look at this objectively. We're now post Labor Day when things are going to begin picking up. You have to be prepared for things to get rocky, but that's not a cause for concern or melting down. 

 

You just have to stop letting the social media narratives drive your opinion on this. All objective data is in Harris' favor, even if only slightly so.

Lemme just start by saying, my mini meltdowns are 100% overdramatic, and no one in this thread should have any reason to think it's all over cause ATRL user Relampago. posted twice in a row. I do try to keep them at a minimum just to be mindful of more productive discussions going on in here, but you're absolutely right in saying that there's no reason to freak out over one poll when data shows us a bigger, more complicated story. You're right that I'm being extremely negative, and there's no reason to believe I'm correct over anyone else, even if I do genuinely stand by what I said. 

 

That being said, I do also agree that I am spouting the right wing talking points. But also, that's a little besides the fact. Whether it's a right wing talking point or not, it's having an effect on Harris's campaign, and not just in right wing spheres or on social media. The NYT poll showed us that people truly do not know about Kamala or what her beliefs are. She can be on the ground all she wants, and hopefully ground game will bring it home, but I'm not convinced on that. If you are, I could see why— this election is likely to be won by a few hundreds of thousands of votes in the places where she's campaigning. Her ground game could get those little amounts of votes she needs to nab her the win. I just don't think that's the case though, and I stand by the fact she needs to make herself more visible and vulnerable to the media, even if it results in junk headlines. I don't think a mean CNN headline will tank Kamala's campaign, but a narrative that she's unknown and unreadable will result in the undecideds she needs to win pouring over to Trump since they know what they're voting for with him. 

 

We can go back and forth on whether or not we think the media is necessary or not, but one thing is for sure— people we need on our side do not know Kamala well enough to vote for her. I'd rather ring the alarm on this, even if it means pushing right-wing talking points, because when we brush off valid criticisms, we look back in hindsight and realize it was an Achilles heel right in front of our faces all along. Perhaps the debate will give her chance to bring people in, but I can't see that happening with what a clusterf*ck debates are and how much word salad Kamala likes to throw out. I have no doubts she'll do better than Trump, I have massive doubts she'll do so good it'll matter at all. 

 

EDIT: Wait, in your post above mine, I fully agree that she just needs to bite the bullet but I think that applies to doing more media appearances as well. People are going to spin narratives on her regardless, at least she would be giving people the opportunity to hear what she has to say straight from the horse's mouth though. 

 

Edited September 8 by Relampago.

[GhostBox]

Harris working hard to win in NC 👏🏼👏🏼

 

 

Edited September 8 by GhostBox

[GhostBox]

Harris is at a much better place in this race right now than we could have ever imagined. 👏🏼

 

Edited September 8 by GhostBox

[midnightdawn]

3 hours ago, Communion said:

 

I mean that kind of lines up with a piece recently that said one of the Biden teams concerns with Kamala was she that is over-cautious and gets analysis paralysis.

 

She's really going to have to put herself out there in uncomfortable situations (interviews, townhalls, podcasts etc) and take some risks if she wants to win. So far this is giving vibes of her 2020 campaign where she began well but the momentum faded quickly as she disappeared into her shell and voters didn't know what she stood for.

[Lil Mistee]

 

askl;djasdasdsaldpepprfpasd;fkds;lfsdf

 

[Lil Mistee]

12 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

Harris is at a much better place in this race right now than we could have ever imagined. 👏🏼

 

is this guy the same as that atrl member form a decade ago