news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[GhostBox]

1 hour ago, FameFatale said:

As someone who watches right wing news and some Trump rallies just for the mess it really is frustrating. This childcare statement isn't a one time thing. He has been like this the past year. Someone asks a question and he never answers it. He goes on rambling about how only he can save the country and then deflects to nicknames with a sprinkle of doom and gloom. I don't think I've heard him lay out actual policy that makes sense and/or a plan. 

But as usual the media does the work for Trump. They spin these lunatic ramblings into something else when they report on it . See below 

 

Edited September 5 by GhostBox

[GhostBox]

😂

 

[Lil Mistee]

 

 

well...yes

[Relampago.]

I'm surprised more people aren't worried by the polls. Even the texts I'm getting from Kamala's campaign are starting to turn way more negative.  

[FameFatale]

Walz is popping off at todays rally  

 

 

 

[shelven]

2 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

I'm surprised more people aren't worried by the polls. Even the texts I'm getting from Kamala's campaign are starting to turn way more negative.  

Right now I'm kind of sitting in the middle of the "she's still slaying and everyone saying otherwise is getting too spooked by R-leaning polls" camp and the "her odds of winning have dropped by 20% in the last 4 days, it's Joever" camp. Looking at the polling with an objective eye, she's doing worse today than she was a week or two ago. We're also in the scary territory where even a small polling error in Trump's favour would be enough to win him the election, whereas a week or two ago, we would have needed another 2016/2020-esque error in his favour. But on the other hand, if you're not building in a vibes-based assumption that the polls will automatically be wrong in Trump's favour, she's still leading in enough swing states to get to 270, and the dip in her polling recently has at least in part been due to a sudden flood of R-leaning polls and drought of top-rated non-partisan polls. So I'm not as happy about the race as I was before/during the DNC, but I'm not in panic mode yet.

[VOSS]

 

[XDNA]

31 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

I'm surprised more people aren't worried by the polls. Even the texts I'm getting from Kamala's campaign are starting to turn way more negative.  

I think many of us expected the election to be close. 

[Sannie]

55 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

😂

 

People in this thread acting like Nate Silver nowadays. Kamala is leading, but here's why that's bad for her.

 

43 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

I'm surprised more people aren't worried by the polls. Even the texts I'm getting from Kamala's campaign are starting to turn way more negative.  

 

37 minutes ago, shelven said:

Right now I'm kind of sitting in the middle of the "she's still slaying and everyone saying otherwise is getting too spooked by R-leaning polls" camp and the "her odds of winning have dropped by 20% in the last 4 days, it's Joever" camp. Looking at the polling with an objective eye, she's doing worse today than she was a week or two ago. We're also in the scary territory where even a small polling error in Trump's favour would be enough to win him the election, whereas a week or two ago, we would have needed another 2016/2020-esque error in his favour. But on the other hand, if you're not building in a vibes-based assumption that the polls will automatically be wrong in Trump's favour, she's still leading in enough swing states to get to 270, and the dip in her polling recently has at least in part been due to a sudden flood of R-leaning polls and drought of top-rated non-partisan polls. So I'm not as happy about the race as I was before/during the DNC, but I'm not in panic mode yet.

It's not in part because of this, it's fully because of this. I understand being weary because complacency is bad, but fear mongering when the data is in our favor is odd. You've got Nate Silver flat-out admitting to unskewing polls or weighing them to help Trump and then polls like Rasmussen struggling to give Trump a measly 1-pt lead and we're like, "oh no, why aren't we more worried".  We're all scared 100%, but we are sitting pretty and nothing is budging Kamala's lead right now and she has a national lead that most experts agree translates to a slight electoral win.

 

Just need to get this damn debate over with lol.

[Parachutes]

 

 

[shelven]

46 minutes ago, Sannie said:

It's not in part because of this, it's fully because of this. I understand being weary because complacency is bad, but fear mongering when the data is in our favor is odd. You've got Nate Silver flat-out admitting to unskewing polls or weighing them to help Trump and then polls like Rasmussen struggling to give Trump a measly 1-pt lead and we're like, "oh no, why aren't we more worried".  We're all scared 100%, but we are sitting pretty and nothing is budging Kamala's lead right now and she has a national lead that most experts agree translates to a slight electoral win.

538 largely isn't playing the same tricks as Silver is with weird weighing and unskewing choices, and they're also showing Harris with a drop over the last week (albeit a smaller one than what Silver is showing):

 

Nationally: +3.7 on Aug 23 | +3.2 today

Michigan: +3.4 on Aug 23 | +2.2 today

Wisconsin: +3.8 on Aug 23 | +3.4 today

Pennsylvania: +1.8 on Aug 23 | +0.9 today

Arizona: +1.4 on Aug 23 | -0.3 today

 

It's okay to acknowledge that she's objectively doing a bit worse today than she was two weeks ago. I find the accusation of fear mongering to be a bit odd considering I feel like I went out of my way in my post to NOT fear monger and emphasize that I'm not in panic mode yet  It's good to put polling changes in their larger context, but those changes shouldn't be disregarded entirely in favour of conclusion-first analysis. One of the main reasons why everyone was so shocked by Hillary's loss in 2016 was that people didn't believe (or didn't pay attention to) the polling starting to turn against her in the last two weeks before the election.

[Relampago.]

I think the debate will be a good moment and shift some momentum in Harris's favor again. I simply can't envision a world where Trump does better than her.

 

But in addition to her doing well, I need Trump to sh*t the bed HARD. Her doing well and him doing bad would be the best. But I think he'll get praised just for behaving which is so tired.

[Tovitov]

1 hour ago, Relampago. said:

I'm surprised more people aren't worried by the polls. Even the texts I'm getting from Kamala's campaign are starting to turn way more negative.  

Atleast they're using Nate Silver's nonsense to their benifit. Apparently people are getting donation texts using his model 

[Relampago.]

Just now, Tovitov said:

Atleast they're using Nate Silver's nonsense to their benifit. Apparently people are getting donation texts using his model 

I got 4 texts from the Harris campaign today (by far the most I've gotten in a day) and one talked about his model, yeah  

 

I think the reality is that the race is clearly very close and no one really knows who will come out on top, and it'll stay that way till the end. So they might as well make use of the janky models and roll with it.

[tiejc]

I'm ok with Kamala's team scaring people if that gets them to run to the polls lol

 

We can't get complacent like in 2016

[Lil Mistee]

String of good polls for MOMALA today

[GhostBox]

 

[nooniebao]

 

[ultraviolence.xx]

good riddance! bye Stinken!!!

[VOSS]

 

[Relampago.]

8 minutes ago, VOSS said:

 

Obama admitted to #BumpinThat 365 style, Bush is a coward!

 

 

[nooniebao]

 

[VOSS]

59 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

Obama admitted to #BumpinThat 365 style, Bush is a coward!

 

 

Coke nail nd all 

[CaptainMusic]

5 hours ago, Relampago. said:

I think the debate will be a good moment and shift some momentum in Harris's favor again. I simply can't envision a world where Trump does better than her.

 

But in addition to her doing well, I need Trump to sh*t the bed HARD. Her doing well and him doing bad would be the best. But I think he'll get praised just for behaving which is so tired.

This is the problem, Trump's bar is SO low that he will be praised easily for not being a disaster while Kamala will be criticised for "word salads" even if she's clearly better than him.  

[Communion]

Miss S*nnie cursing me with "BLUE STATE!!" tirades claiming people in blue states don't interact or have to live with people who vote for or support Trump only for me to hang out with a friend I haven't seen in a month and her absolutely.. melting down over the election? 

 

Genuinely losing her mind over Kamala, going "I'm a ******* Democrat, but like.. she's a ******* joke?? I would love a woman president. I would love a black woman president. But I can't believe I feel like I think Trump would be better on the economy cause it can't get much ******* worse than it is now."

 

(She and her boyfriend are dual-income, no kids and so I think it's part social misogyny but more-so the tight economy making it so that they both were unhappy in their jobs and ended up this year on unemployment for long periods of time and feeling stagnant.)

 

Even when gently pushing back by referencing some of Harris' proposed policies (y'all welcome!), she was like "WELL WHY DON'T THEY DO THAT NOW??? She's been in office the whole time and hasn't done anything???". Which convinced me Harris 100% should do more to distance herself from and make herself distinct from Biden's policies (but in a leftist way).

 

Being a leftist and having to gentle-parent disaffected liberals and centrists with every acknowledgement of Democrats' weaknesses by going "Well... as a leftist, someone like me will dislike her... for THIS specific reason." 

 

(The conversation ended with her melting down about the price of a baguette and saying she probably won't vote for anyone in November )

Edited September 6 by Communion