news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[GhostBox]

1 minute ago, Mike91 said:

The presidential race doesn't "officially" start until after Labor Day. Go look at polling throughout history and you'll see that polling pre-September is rarely accurate (unless the incumbent is either highly popular or embroiled in controversy). People thought Trump had the race won after his assassination attempt and we saw how quickly things changed afterwards.

 

The conversation around her polling comes from that fact that she's managed to make huge gains in only a month. I don't think people like McLean are taking into consideration how unprecedented her campaign is in modern history.

 

Personally, I do think she'll win the election but if it were held right now would she win? Maybe, but probably not. She's only been in the race for a month against someone who's been running for going on 10 years now. What matters is how the race looks when voting begins. Last night was most people's biggest exposure to her. 

And technically voting starts in like 10 days or so in some states.  So if she can keep the momentum up slightly and get some good numbers from early voting that would be nice. 

[starsailor]

Hey babes. I'm not american, but this election is so decisive to the rest of the world… the far-right movement must end one day, and the better opportunity for the beginning of their end is to extinguish Trump's presidential aspirations. 
Kamala's ascension as the official republican candidate filled me with hope and I have a great feeling about this, but since I'm not from USA, I would like to know if there is a chance of Kamala win this presidential race, and how is the feeling of the people in the streets, or in your daily conversations in the work, family and friends. Is there a chance?

please, answer yes. 

Edited August 24 by starsailor

[Relampago.]

1 minute ago, Mike91 said:

The presidential race doesn't "officially" start until after Labor Day. Go look at polling throughout history and you'll see that polling pre-September is rarely accurate (unless the incumbent is either highly popular or embroiled in controversy). People thought Trump had the race won after his assassination attempt and we saw how quickly things changed afterwards.

 

The conversation around her polling comes from that fact that she's managed to make huge gains in only a month. I don't think people like McLean are taking into consideration how unprecedented her campaign is in modern history.

 

Personally, I do think she'll win the election but if it were held right now would she win? Maybe, but probably not. She's only been in the race for a month against someone who's been running for going on 10 years now. What matters is how the race looks when voting begins. Last night was most people's biggest exposure to her. 

Oh for sure, I don't think she's lost the election. I'm holding to my prediction that she wins, I think we'll be surprised by the turnout in states like AZ/NV, but then scared by the turnout in MI/WI, but ultimately she will win the election and carry all those states (except maybe NV, but that's more of a toss up imo). 

 

That prediction only holds if she remedies the pain points of her campaign though. She needs to convince the electorate that she will be able to handle the problems they felt during Biden's presidency. That criticism is going to gain momentum as the race heats up, and it's even been a weak point of her campaign in 2020.

 

I just caution people against getting comfortable now that it seems she has a lead because, like you said, I don't know that she'd win if the election was today but she has a strong start. It's just about how she carries that start to the finish line from now to November.

[Mike91]

Also, I find it hilarious that Americans are concerned about policy but continuously give presidents a divided government in Congress knowing full well nothing important will be passed.

[Armani?]

Heard the speech for the 1st time and it started motherly while progressing into a Avatar Firelordess audition

[Relampago.]

3 minutes ago, starsailor said:

Hey babes. I'm not american, but this election is so decisive to the rest of the world… the far-right movement must end one day, and the better opportunity for the beginning of their end is to extinguish Trump's presidential aspirations. 
Kamala's ascension as the official republican candidate filled me with hope and I have a great feeling about this, but since I'm not from USA, I would like to know if there is a chance of Kamala win this presidential race, and how is the feeling of the people in the streets, or in your daily conversations in the work, family and friends. Is there a chance?

please, answer yes. 

She's got a decent shot of winning, there's a lot of reasons that it's looking good for her. There's almost equally as many reasons why she wouldn't win. As of now, it's looking like she'll be able to snag the win in November but it's so hard to make a concrete prediction until the day gets closer. 

 

As for the buzz on the streets, I live in Phoenix, Arizona which is the biggest city by far in one of the most important states this election. I can say the mood has 100% shifted in favor of the Dems with Biden dropping, abortion being on the ballot and Kari Lake (a disaster of a senate candidate) being a mess.

 

My family is full of staunch Republicans who are either not voting or are debating holding their nose and voting for Trump. My mom and her siblings are not a fan of Kamala (they're a bunch of racist and misogynistic 1st generation Mexican-Americans so, yeah). My grandparents on my mom's side are mostly the same, although my grandma has decided not to vote. On my dad's side, it's the total opposite. My dad, his siblings and my grandparents on his side asked me if I could help them register to vote so they could vote for Kamala because they were not excited about Biden whatsoever. My friends are all far more excited about Kamala, even if they have reservations about her war hawkish behaviors and pro-Israel stances. It's worth noting though that I would never be friends with anyone even remotely open to voting for Trump so that might not be the greatest anecdote, but my family probably is (Latino, middle class/working class, relatively low-propensity voters, etc).

 

In general, I would say Kamala is doing pretty decent here, but time will tell if that's enthusiasm for Kamala or just enthusiasm for Biden not being the candidate. 

[Tusk]

2 minutes ago, Mike91 said:

Also, I find it hilarious that Americans are concerned about policy but continuously give presidents a divided government in Congress knowing full well nothing important will be passed.

[GhostBox]

This makes no sense 💀😂

 

[GhostBox]

 

[toxicgenie]

3 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

This makes no sense 💀😂

 

Trump wants to end birthright citizenship. Basically, saying Gallego shouldn't even be American.

[GhostBox]

💀

 

[FameFatale]

I can't get over the darker makeup. It's like he's doing it to match Kamala or something. It is wild. 

[ClashAndBurn]

5 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

Last night I said Harris failed to differentiate herself from Biden with her speech, and if she expects to win this election, she needs to work on that ASAP.

I think the problem here is that the strategy for her and the DNC is the exact opposite. They're under the impression that Biden was a mostly flawless president with no policy failures, and that the only problem people ever had with him was his age. So they're running that way: largely as a full continuation of the Biden-Harris agenda with minor variances that are marginally more popular in some ways (rhetoric on Israel/Palestine, however that went fully out the window with last night's warmonger speech) and less popular in other ways (embrace of corporations, leaning towards firing Lina Khan, etc.)

[Breathe On Moi]

42 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

People thought Trump had the race won after his assassination

*dumb people 

[Bloo]

36 minutes ago, Mike91 said:

Also, I find it hilarious that Americans are concerned about policy but continuously give presidents a divided government in Congress knowing full well nothing important will be passed.

?

 

This comment is blithely ignoring the effects of gerrymandering and countless other systemic problems that result in things like unrepresentative divided governments. Just punching down on the American people, as if they’re consciously responsible for all of it rather than an entire system designed to misrepresent us, feels misdirected.

[Sannie]

1 hour ago, midnightdawn said:

CHICAGO, Aug 19 (Reuters) - The founder of the main outside spending group backing Kamala Harris' presidential bid says their own opinion polling is less "rosy" than public polls suggest and warned that Democrats face much closer races in key states.

Chauncey McLean, president of Future Forward, a super political action committee, or super PAC, that has raised hundreds of millions of dollars to back Harris in the Nov. 5 election, spoke on Monday during an event hosted by the University of Chicago Institute of Politics.

"Our numbers are much less rosy than what you're seeing in the public," said McLean, who rarely talks publicly.

Future Forward has created a massive polling operation that created and tested some 500 digital and television ads for Biden and some 200 for Harris. They have talked to some 375,000 Americans in the weeks after Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee on July 22.

McLean said the majority of Harris' momentum in the immediate aftermath of Biden dropping out was from young voters of color, and that has opened up Sunbelt states such as Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, states which Democrats had largely written off in the final days of the Biden campaign.

He warned that Harris has yet to fully rebuild the Biden coalition of Blacks, Hispanics and young voters that brought him the White House in 2020.

McLean said polling shows the public wants more detailed policy positions from Harris.

He says they don't want "white papers," but they also don't want platitudes. He says they need more concrete examples of how she may differ from Biden and make their lives easier economically. Trump allies have called on Harris to do the same in recent days, hoping to pin her down on controversial issues.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-super-pac-founder-says-public-polls-are-too-optimistic-2024-08-19/

This is total BS.  Where are these public polls that show a rosy picture for Kamala?  All of the polls show us that it's going to be a tight race, so this person is saying their polls showing a tight race is different from the public polls?  It makes no sense.  Nobody who is seeing the public polling can genuinely say Kamala has it in the bag at this point right now. 
 

48 minutes ago, Armani? said:

Heard the speech for the 1st time and it started motherly while progressing into a Avatar Firelordess audition

This always happens. She starts off soft and gets more and more intense as it goes.
 

20 minutes ago, Breathe On Moi said:

*dumb people 

I know it seems like it happened decades ago, but let's not rewrite current history. Even the ardent Biden supporters were, "Trump is going to win in a landslide" after that photo of him in front of an American flag was posted. It was very bleak.

[GhostBox]

The trumpets on  social media acting like Jesus came down and endorsed Trump today 💀They really do live in their own made up reality 

 

Edited August 24 by GhostBox

[GhostBox]

Seems that Harris and Walz are gonna hit the campaign trail again next week 👏🏼👏🏼

 

[nooniebao]

 

[Relampago.]

Not that they're a reliable source, but conservatives seem convinced that RFK dropping out and his endorsement are going to make a big splash.

 

Obviously.. it's not going to make a huge difference but in a close race like this, everything matters. 

 

Anyways:

 

[GhostBox]

 

[Sannie]

24 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

Not that they're a reliable source, but conservatives seem convinced that RFK dropping out and his endorsement are going to make a big splash.

 

Obviously.. it's not going to make a huge difference but in a close race like this, everything matters. 

 

Anyways:

 

Is it crazy for me to say that if him getting shot did not do anything for him in the polling, nothing will?

 

while the polling did show that RFK seemingly pulled from Trump, the entire point of voting third-party is because you don't like any of the two candidates. I think it's misguided to think that RFK's supporters will automatically fall to Trump when in actuality they most likely will just not vote or they will write him in. 

Edited August 24 by Sannie

[ClashAndBurn]

1 hour ago, Mike91 said:

People thought Trump had the race won after his assassination attempt

Yeah, because Biden losing was pretty much locked in at that point. His debate performance was an absolute flop, his party was revolting against him, and his opponent came out of an attempt on his life triumphantly. Kamala swapping places with Biden made the race a competitive coin flip again, even though everyone foolishly seems to think she has this in the bag and her winning is a foregone conclusion. Sounds… familiar, no?  

[Mike91]

1 hour ago, Bloo said:

?

 

This comment is blithely ignoring the effects of gerrymandering and countless other systemic problems that result in things like unrepresentative divided governments. Just punching down on the American people, as if they're consciously responsible for all of it rather than an entire system designed to misrepresent us, feels misdirected.

Divided government has been a thing since the birth of our country. It's not something recent that came out of GOP gerrymandering.  

 

Of course there's systemic problems but let's not pretend there aren't people who vote one way in an election, get upset that the party in power didn't do enough, and then turn around and vote for the other party next time, basically ensuring nothing gets done. 

[tiejc]

I don't know if this was shared already https://www.npr.org/2024/08/16/g-s1-17255/washington-primary-2024-election-democrats-gop-twitter

 

Quote

Election data analysts point to Washington state's primary results as a useful barometer of which party is likely to win the national popular vote for the House of Representatives and to what degree.

 

Here's how to do it: add up the total votes for Democrats and Republicans in Washington's 10 House district primaries to find the share of the primary vote for each party. Then, take the difference between them and subtract 12% to get a rough estimate of the predicted House margin in November.

 

An NPR analysis of the Washington primary using this framework estimates that Democrats could win the national popular vote by about 4 points, which is slightly more than the 2020 presidential election that saw them narrowly win the White House and control of both chambers of Congress. In other words, it will likely be yet another close race.

 

This year, Democrats won about 57.3% of the Congressional primary vote to Republicans' 41.3%, or a margin of 16%. Subtract 12 percentage points, and you get that estimate of a 4% popular vote victory for Democrats later this year.

 

In recent elections, the framework has also hinted at the direction of public sentiment ahead of the general elections, like the 2022 midterms. Democrats finished with a 10.4% margin in Washington's primary election, a down year that suggested Republicans were favored by about 1.6%, closer to the final national popular vote advantage of about 2.8% for the GOP in the House.

 

In 2020, a 14% primary margin suggested a 2% popular vote victory for Democrats, which ended up being closer to 3%. 2018's "blue wave" that saw Democrats win the House popular vote with a roughly 8.5% margin was foreshadowed by Washington's primary that saw a 20.4% Democratic margin across its Congressional seats.

 

 

 

Edited August 24 by tiejc