news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[Vermillion]

 

[GraceRandolph]

 

[GraceRandolph]

Just now, Espresso said:

 

Open convention is the only option. Dems need to stop coronating politicians because it's their "time"  

[GhostBox]

 

good news 👏🏼

[GhostBox]

 

[GhostBox]

They are already out to get Harris too 💀😂

 

 

[GhostBox]

Looks like this is hurting his campaign 🤷

 

"anything they do I wish them well" 

[Gottasadae]

 

 

 

[GhostBox]

"I have no idea who's behind it" 

 

welll ok if that's true then we need to have a week of coverage talking about Trumps lapse of memory. Considering he knows all of them 🤷

[R.E.M.]

On 7/4/2024 at 4:17 AM, Harrier said:

A Trump +6 poll from Sienna/NYT should not be underestimated for its impact. I think there is a genuine chance Biden will be pushed out for Kamala now, which I didn't think a few days ago.

 

She can win - she will be a one term president for sure, but she can win. I'm coconut tree pilled too  

 

Also, on the neolib idpol front, if they are insisting on running an unpopular candidate with a serious risk of losing, why not run Kamala, a black woman? If she wins it'll be a historic moment. I think even some of the most committed far leftists will be able to enjoy it for at least a brief moment.

 

--

 

How is Trump even allowed to run as a convicted felon? I thought felons could not vote in the U.S., let alone run for president. I'm Canadian so I'm asking earnestly 

[GhostBox]

👏🏼

[bunnyeyes]

Who's watching the interview tonight to see if Biden can recover with Dems? Should have been live and unedited to be honest. If he won't step down, I hope things will at least make it harder for trump.

Edited Friday at 05:17 PM by bunnyeyes

[byzantium]

12 minutes ago, Gottasadae said:

 

 

 

This poll really shows why Biden needs to step aside for the sake of the country.  Normally the individual who has the most name value will poll best.  You see this with Harris over the other contenders.  Biden though is at 40% with by far the highest name value.  To win, he will need to campaign and convince people that he is the person they want as a leader which we know he is unable to do.  
 

Harris's polling is actually pretty positive here.  She gets to 42% which implies she adds some excitement to the race.
 

The other candidates poll lower mostly because people don't know who they are.   What this tells you is (1) about 34% of the population is going to vote for the democrat no matter what.  And (2) Trump polls about 40% against a "generic democrat".  This kind of debunks the theory that Biden has some special sauce uniquely capable of defeating Trump.  
 

If democrats look at this poll and ask, "who has the lowest margin against trump"? We are going to lose this election.  Democrats need to find the person with the greatest opportunity to grow and exploit trump's weaknesses.  Personally, I think that is Whitmer, but the key takeaway is that is not Biden. 

[Gottasadae]

2 minutes ago, byzantium said:

This poll really shows why Biden needs to step aside for the sake of the country.  Normally the individual who has the most name value will poll best.  You see this with Harris over the other contenders.  Biden though is at 40% with by far the highest name value.  To win, he will need to campaign and convince people that he is the person they want as a leader which we know he is unable to do.  
 

Harris's polling is actually pretty positive here.  She gets to 42% which implies she adds some excitement to the race.
 

The other candidates poll lower mostly because people don't know who they are.   What this tells you is (1) about 34% of the population is going to vote for the democrat no matter what.  And (2) Trump polls about 40% against a "generic democrat".  This kind of debunks the theory that Biden has some special sauce uniquely capable of defeating Trump.  
 

If democrats look at this poll and ask, "who has the lowest margin against trump"? We are going to lose this election.  Democrats need to find the person with the greatest opportunity to grow and exploit trump's weaknesses.  Personally, I think that is Whitmer, but the key takeaway is that is not Biden. 

This particular poll showed him -3 (37%) about two months ago 

 

The polls is so inconsistent with chaotic differences 

[byzantium]

11 minutes ago, R.E.M. said:

 

--

 

How is Trump even allowed to run as a convicted felon? I thought felons could not vote in the U.S., let alone run for president. I'm Canadian so I'm asking earnestly 

This is mostly a question of, "Who is going to stop him?"  
 

Will it be the Republican Party?

Will it be the Supreme Court?

Will it be the American Voters?  
Will it be individual states?  
 

American political institutions have eroded to the point where non of these groups are willing or even wanting to stop him so this he is allowed to run.  No country is immune to this issue.  The same thing could happen in Canada if the stop guards against something like this go away.  

[Gottasadae]

7 minutes ago, bunnyeyes said:

Who's watching the interview tonight to see if Biden can recover with Dems? Should have been live and unedited to be honest. If he won't step down, I hope things will at least make it harder for trump.

Isn't they promised to upload unedited take after?

[byzantium]

5 minutes ago, Gottasadae said:

This particular poll showed him -3 (37%) about two months ago 

 

The polls is so inconsistent with chaotic differences 

I think this poll showed him at 39-41 which is not that much different than 40-40 three weeks ago.  

[VOSS]

 

[byzantium]

Genuine question for the Biden Bros.  At this point in 2020, Biden was leading Trump by 10 points in the polls in Michigan.  Right now he is trailing by 3 points (and no post debate polls have been released for that state yet). 
 

How do you expect Biden to win? What evidence gives you confidence? You can deny quantitative evidence all you want but no qualitative evidence assists him either.  He is not well liked, does not have much or any charisma, he does not excite people, he does not inspire trust or confidence in people, he does not stand for anything etc. 

[GhostBox]

13 minutes ago, VOSS said:

 

Omg 💀

[shelven]

20 minutes ago, byzantium said:

Genuine question for the Biden Bros.  At this point in 2020, Biden was leading Trump by 10 points in the polls in Michigan.  Right now he is trailing by 3 points (and no post debate polls have been released for that state yet). 
 

How do you expect Biden to win? What evidence gives you confidence? You can deny quantitative evidence all you want but no qualitative evidence assists him either.  He is not well liked, does not have much or any charisma, he does not excite people, he does not inspire trust or confidence in people, he does not stand for anything etc. 

Their theory is essentially "eventually enough swing voters will suddenly decide they care more about Trump being a criminal than Biden being senile."

 

I understand the temptation to believe that because it should be right. In any remotely sane world, people would care more about a candidate being a convicted felon who regularly openly threatens democracy than a candidate who's clearly on a cognitive decline but is surrounded by people who can competently do his job for him.
 

The problem is that people are letting their views of what should be true influence their perception of what's actually true. And all the evidence we've seen over the last several months is that there are more voters who view Biden's senility as a dealbreaker than there are voters who view Trump's criminality as a dealbreaker. First the theory was that we'd see people changing their minds once Biden vs. Trump was locked in and people realized a second Trump term might actually happen, but that change didn't come. Then the theory was that we'd see people changing their minds once Trump officially became a convicted criminal, but the change still didn't come. 
 

There's just not much room for persuasion left in the Biden vs. Trump matchup. A vast majority of voters have already formed their opinions on both candidates. There's not going to be some magical change that happens in October for no reason. That's why replacing Biden with Harris or someone else carries essentially no downside - there's obviously still the chance the replacement can lose, but what's the harm in taking the chance when the current candidate is getting increasingly closer to being a locked-in loss?

[byzantium]

20 minutes ago, shelven said:

Their theory is essentially "eventually enough swing voters will suddenly decide they care more about Trump being a criminal than Biden being senile."

 

I understand the temptation to believe that because it should be right. In any remotely sane world, people would care more about a candidate being a convicted felon who regularly openly threatens democracy than a candidate who's clearly on a cognitive decline but is surrounded by people who can competently do his job for him.
 

The problem is that people are letting their views of what should be true influence their perception of what's actually true. And all the evidence we've seen over the last several months is that there are more voters who view Biden's senility as a dealbreaker than there are voters who view Trump's criminality as a dealbreaker. First the theory was that we'd see people changing their minds once Biden vs. Trump was locked in and people realized a second Trump term might actually happen, but that change didn't come. Then the theory was that we'd see people changing their minds once Trump officially became a convicted criminal, but the change still didn't come. 
 

There's just not much room for persuasion left in the Biden vs. Trump matchup. A vast majority of voters have already formed their opinions on both candidates. There's not going to be some magical change that happens in October for no reason. That's why replacing Biden with Harris or someone else carries essentially no downside - there's obviously still the chance the replacement can lose, but what's the harm in taking the chance when the current candidate is getting increasingly closer to being a locked-in loss?

I think this is a good assessment.  The Biden supporters seems to have a theory for how things are going to play out and are unwilling to acknowledge evidence that their theory is to actually correct.  
 

What scares me is that they don't realize that Biden is actually pushing people towards Trump.  I went to a cookout yesterday in WI and two '20 Biden voters basically told me that while they don't like Trump and think he is both a bad person and bad for the country, they are leaning towards Trump because they trust Biden to be the leader we need in an emergency.  

[Gottasadae]

47 minutes ago, byzantium said:

Genuine question for the Biden Bros.  At this point in 2020, Biden was leading Trump by 10 points in the polls in Michigan.  Right now he is trailing by 3 points (and no post debate polls have been released for that state yet). 
 

How do you expect Biden to win? What evidence gives you confidence? You can deny quantitative evidence all you want but no qualitative evidence assists him either.  He is not well liked, does not have much or any charisma, he does not excite people, he does not inspire trust or confidence in people, he does not stand for anything etc. 

Independent here, not a Biden bro. I don't take polls serious at all, especially after 2016. I just go out and vote for better option, either it's republican or democrat. So basically, if GOP offered someone moderate and progressive instead of Trump and maga, I would vote for them over Biden/Harris any day  I told many times that my support for Biden/Harris it's just a vote against Trump. 

[bunnyeyes]

1 hour ago, Gottasadae said:

Isn't they promised to upload unedited take after?

Hopefully they don't make us wait until Monday. But it's good if so!!

[GhostBox]