fan base Taylor Swift

[Fama]

15 minutes ago, Achilles. said:

When it’s actually her Christmas album with the Holiday Collection TVs, Christmas Tree Farm, and 5-6 new songs. 

That's what I think. She also has to rerecord Holiday Collection, but it has only 2 self-written songs and she might just used the opportunity to release a Christmas album.

 

 

[Achilles.]

I don’t need proper rerecordings of the holiday cover songs. Give us GOOD versions of Last Christmas and Silent Night this time. And leave Santa Baby in the garbage where it belongs. 

[Ms. Togekiss]

34 minutes ago, dussel_06 said:

I know some  swifties want to be conservative to not get drag later on but 1.2B is outright disrespectful. Beyonce’s tour average is at 10M and Era’s has 146 dates. If Taylor is at the same level as Beyonce’s touring power, she would at least gross 1.5B with 146 dates.

 

 

But it’s common sense that she’s bigger than that. Like way bigger….

Bey had dynamic pricing on so her average ticket price will be MUCH higher than Taylor’s. I don’t understand why people can’t accept that FACT  Bey was pulling 15M everywhere. Taylor will be closer to 13M but with higher audiences 

[Ms. Togekiss]

47 minutes ago, wastedpotential said:

Yeah this really isn't too off-base, IMO. 

 

We know for a fact from the attendance figures in the reviews of almost every date that the total attendance for the first NA leg (including CDMX) was probably around 3.5 million (65k/night). We can also probably assume an average ticket price of somewhere between $200 and $250, giving the first NA leg an estimated gross of 700-875M. In the rest of LatAm, I'm seeing most estimates for attendance at 75k/night in BsAs, and we know there were 60k/night in Rio, and 44k/night in SP from the information tab here. Assuming an average ticket price of about $140 (though this depends on where currencies are by the time of gross reporting), that's a total leg attendance of 538k and an estimated leg gross of 75.3M (including the 4 CDMX shows with a $180 average and 230k attendees, the thirteen LatAm are at about 120M); though again, this depends a lot on currency exchange rates when they do the date reporting. That right there is somewhere between 775 million and 950 million from the 2023 dates (of which there were 66). 

 

In 2024, the numbers are a lot more speculative, but she has 88 shows, all of which are in higher income markets with higher than average ticket prices. Asia+Australia (210k tickets in Tokyo, 280k tickets in Melbourne, 320k tickets in Sydney, and 320k tickets in Singapore) will probably average between $180 and $220/ticket, or somewhere between 200M and 250M (with 1.13M tickets), again depending on exchange rates (though these are more stable). Europe is a massive wildcard, since the ticket prices and venue sizes vary massively, but assuming the average venue holds about 53k in the Eras stage setup (which seems to be on the conservative side but factors in the smaller crowds in Paris, Liverpool, and Zurich compared to the larger crowds in London and Madrid), and assuming the average European ticket is somewhere between $160 and $190 (again on the pretty conservative side), then that's a leg gross of 410M-490M (estimated total crowd of 2.54M; and assuming the exchange rate stays about where it is today). Finally, the second NA leg is also all over the place. Miami, NOLA, and Indianapolis all look like they'll be over 65k, but there's no way Toronto is over 55k, so I'd say the leg average attendance will split the difference and be somewhere around 60k (915k total), and with the same ticket averages from the first NA leg (though the tickets on the second leg actually seem to be higher), that brings a total gross of 185M-230M. Thus, my current predictions for the Eras gross are somewhere between 1.57 Billion and 1.92 Billion with total attendance somewhere around 8.6 Million (though I'm less confident in this estimate). 

 

The only way Eras ends up anywhere near to 1.2B is if the value of the Dollar vs. the Yen, SGD, AUD, Euro, GBP, SEK, CHF, PLO, and CAD absolutely craters in the next year, which I think is highly unlikely. 

Okay yeah 1.2B is too conservative but 1.5B is still the roof imo. LATAM and Europe grosses will be much lower than people are predicting 

[cruelhprince]

I would honestly love for her to drop an album this year about the breakup to get everything Joe related out of the way and then in 2025 she could release TS12 (fully about Travis if they’re still together)

[Axelios]

14 minutes ago, Ms. Togekiss said:

Okay yeah 1.2B is too conservative but 1.5B is still the roof imo. LATAM and Europe grosses will be much lower than people are predicting 

The international gross is really hard to predict becaus the prices vary a lot. Mexico prices for example were higher than any US show. 

[Holiest Dreams]

17 minutes ago, Ms. Togekiss said:

Bey had dynamic pricing on so her average ticket price will be MUCH higher than Taylor’s. I don’t understand why people can’t accept that FACT  Bey was pulling 15M everywhere. Taylor will be closer to 13M but with higher audiences 

You say it’s a fact but it’s not. Beyonce will have a higher average price but the gap won’t be that big. Couple that with the fact that Taylor had audiences of 10-20k more almost every night and, yes, their average gross per show won’t be that different.

 

I’m not as well-versed in touring specifics like @wastedpotential is to give such a detailed breakdown, but still. 

Edited October 4, 2023 by Holiest Dreams

[Steve Johnson]

56 minutes ago, Ms. Togekiss said:

Bey had dynamic pricing on so her average ticket price will be MUCH higher than Taylor’s. I don’t understand why people can’t accept that FACT  Bey was pulling 15M everywhere. Taylor will be closer to 13M but with higher audiences 

Taylor is easily doing 18 million$+ in cities like NJ, chicago, LA. 

[Badgalbriel]

8 minutes ago, Steve Johnson said:

Taylor is easily doing 18 million$+ in cities like NJ, chicago, LA. 

But Beyoncé had dynamic pricing for ALL her dates. Meaning her average per date will be higher than Taylor. Unless the VIP packages make up for the price difference. 

[wastedpotential]

58 minutes ago, Ms. Togekiss said:

Okay yeah 1.2B is too conservative but 1.5B is still the roof imo. LATAM and Europe grosses will be much lower than people are predicting 

When looking at these grosses the key consideration is the average ticket price, which will obviously be an estimate since we have no way of knowing exactly how many tickets were sold at each specific price point. It's easier to estimate that the LatAm dates (excluding Mexico City, where the prices were at or above US averages) are going to be at about $140, since that's about the 40% mark on the 100 point scale between the cheapest and most expensive tickets, and that's also about what the price was for the largest group of tickets, and for Brazil at least there is an official tally of the number of tickets that were sold. Europe is a big mess for estimations since there are so many venues with broad variation in capacity and each market had the tickets priced very differently, so I do think there's a lot of room for variation in the pricing there, but at the rate tickets were bought and based on what prices I saw people paid, there's literally no way the average ticket price for the worst performing or lowest income market (Warsaw) was under $140, and that's the extreme worst prediction for the worst performing date. The top average date was probably Zurich (where I think a good ballpark would be $260 given the strength of the Swiss Franc right now). Yes, there is a lot of variation, but I don't think the grosses will be tooooo far below predictions from people who have an idea of what they're talking about. 

[wastedpotential]

7 minutes ago, Badgalbriel said:

But Beyoncé had dynamic pricing for ALL her dates. Meaning her average per date will be higher than Taylor. Unless the VIP packages make up for the price difference. 

But Taylor sold 15-20k more seats for each night in each market. NY, LA, and Chicago might've had an average ticket price of $220 (where Beyonce had an average of $300+), but because Taylor was able to get 65-70k people into the stadium every night where Beyonce didn't do more than 55k, the gap is a lot smaller than the worst case. VIP packages aren't included in ticket gross calculations, but that's still not a huge concern. 

[Magickarp]

Goddess of love please take me to your leadurrr

You can AI generate your own:

https://www.bing.com/images/create

 

In the case of these the prompt was "Taylor Swift Greek Goddess"

 

 

BONUS:

Spoiler

 

[RobynYoBank]

2 hours ago, Ms. Togekiss said:

Bey had dynamic pricing on so her average ticket price will be MUCH higher than Taylor’s. I don’t understand why people can’t accept that FACT  Bey was pulling 15M everywhere. Taylor will be closer to 13M but with higher audiences 

Beyoncé’s average ticket price is not going to be much higher. Pollstar has estimated the average ticket price to be $200. Taylor sold huge numbers of VIP tickets. On top of that, she sold way more tickets for the same venues. In the US, it wasn’t uncommon for her to sell 10-25K more tickets per night for the same venues.

Edited October 4, 2023 by RobynYoBank

[RobynYoBank]

1 hour ago, wastedpotential said:

VIP packages aren't included in ticket gross calculations, but that's still not a huge concern. 

Really? I’ve never heard this before. How would they not include it? What would be the gross of a VIP ticket?

Edited October 4, 2023 by RobynYoBank

[Ms. Togekiss]

1 hour ago, wastedpotential said:

When looking at these grosses the key consideration is the average ticket price, which will obviously be an estimate since we have no way of knowing exactly how many tickets were sold at each specific price point. It's easier to estimate that the LatAm dates (excluding Mexico City, where the prices were at or above US averages) are going to be at about $140, since that's about the 40% mark on the 100 point scale between the cheapest and most expensive tickets, and that's also about what the price was for the largest group of tickets, and for Brazil at least there is an official tally of the number of tickets that were sold. Europe is a big mess for estimations since there are so many venues with broad variation in capacity and each market had the tickets priced very differently, so I do think there's a lot of room for variation in the pricing there, but at the rate tickets were bought and based on what prices I saw people paid, there's literally no way the average ticket price for the worst performing or lowest income market (Warsaw) was under $140, and that's the extreme worst prediction for the worst performing date. The top average date was probably Zurich (where I think a good ballpark would be $260 given the strength of the Swiss Franc right now). Yes, there is a lot of variation, but I don't think the grosses will be tooooo far below predictions from people who have an idea of what they're talking about. 

You mentioned the strength of the dollar being important. Could you explain how? Also, do you know if the conversion happens at the rate when the sale happened or at the rate when it gets reported? Because that could change things too right? 

[RobynYoBank]

A Denver paper reported $38M from the two nights there. I’ve been curious to see whether it’s accurate or not. It certainly seems at the upper end of what’s possible, but also not completely implausible.

Edited October 5, 2023 by RobynYoBank

[wastedpotential]

5 minutes ago, Ms. Togekiss said:

You mentioned the strength of the dollar being important. Could you explain how? Also, do you know if the conversion happens at the rate when the sale happened or at the rate when it gets reported? Because that could change things too right? 

So concert tickets are obviously sold in local currency, and are reported to billboard in USD. For whatever reason, despite the actual conversion probably happening either right after the purchase (or certainly right after the show), the conversion calculation isn't done until the Taylor reports the figures. 

[wastedpotential]

14 minutes ago, RobynYoBank said:

Really? I’ve never heard this before. How would they not include it? What would be the gross of a VIP ticket?

Yeah, if you look through the billboard boxscore lists, they'll list the cheapest and most expensive price of a ticket they calculated. I don't know the reason why, but for the rep tour for instance, it ranged from $49 through $499, and I know for a fact that VIP tickets were way above that. Maybe they only included the portion of the gross of a VIP ticket that matched the value of the top-non VIP ticket, and I've never seen any rationale for why it's done that way, but that's how I understand it. 

[RobynYoBank]

Just now, wastedpotential said:

Yeah, if you look through the billboard boxscore lists, they'll list the cheapest and most expensive price of a ticket they calculated. I don't know the reason why, but for the rep tour for instance, it ranged from $49 through $499, and I know for a fact that VIP tickets were way above that. Maybe they only included the portion of the gross of a VIP ticket that matched the value of the top-non VIP ticket, and I've never seen any rationale for why it's done that way, but that's how I understand it. 

Hm, that doesn’t make any sense to me. If true, though, it will drastically affect box scores. She had enormous numbers of VIP tickets at every show. 

[wastedpotential]

7 minutes ago, RobynYoBank said:

A Denver paper reported $38M from the two nights there. I’ve been curious to see whether it’s accurate or not. It certainly seems at the upper end of what’s possible, but also not completely implausible.

This is also something that informed a lot of the estimates I've seen. Denver had somewhere between 71k and 73k attendees, so with a nightly gross of $19M, that would put the average ticket price around $260, which is higher than I feel comfortable estimating, but is certainly within the realm of possibility. 

[wastedpotential]

Just now, RobynYoBank said:

Hm, that doesn’t make any sense to me. If true, though, it will drastically affect box scores. She had enormous numbers of VIP tickets at every show. 

Yeah, it's strange to me too, but here's the archive of the first Rep tour boxscore report, and the price column goes from 49.50 to 499.50, and I know for a fact that VIP tickets were a lot higher than that

[Steve Johnson]

2 hours ago, Badgalbriel said:

But Beyoncé had dynamic pricing for ALL her dates. Meaning her average per date will be higher than Taylor. Unless the VIP packages make up for the price difference. 

53k vs 70k attendance difference is a lot.  

[Steve Johnson]

36 minutes ago, wastedpotential said:

This is also something that informed a lot of the estimates I've seen. Denver had somewhere between 71k and 73k attendees, so with a nightly gross of $19M, that would put the average ticket price around $260, which is higher than I feel comfortable estimating, but is certainly within the realm of possibility. 

260$ is not out of reach thou. I think it's totally possible. 

Taylor gurl, release the damn boxscore. 

[Steve Johnson]

57 minutes ago, RobynYoBank said:

Really? I’ve never heard this before. How would they not include it? What would be the gross of a VIP ticket?

Yeah VIP tickets are not included. 

[wastedpotential]

3 minutes ago, Steve Johnson said:

260$ is not out of reach thou. I think it's totally possible. 

Taylor gurl, release the damn boxscore. 

I mean it's probably too high for a market like Detroit, where the floor was small and a higher percentage of the fans were in the stands (on top of it already being a less wealthy market), but in San Francisco, where the capacity was also low but because a massive chunk of the nosebleeds aren't there cause of the stadium design the percentage of fans in the more expensive ticket category areas (let alone the fact that SF is such a high income market), the shows could be some of the most lucrative on a per seat basis. The math gets really complicated once you narrow the grain down to a stadium by stadium case study. 

 

I've been on the edge of a cliff waiting for the boxscores ever since August ******* 9th