charts discussion HDD: Adele 833k (biggest debut of the year), Taylor 165k

[Konril]

I wish my faves can pull these numbers. 

[JasperX]

1 hour ago, Mudkip said:

 

November 20, 2015

https://hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=298636&title=ADELE-EARLY-RESPONSE%3A-BEYOND-BELIEF-(UPDATE)

November 22, 2015 

https://hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=298650&title=ADELE%3A-BYE-BYE-BYE%2C-RECORD-BOOKS

November 26, 2015 

https://hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=298711&title=AN-ADELE-THANKSGIVING%3A-3.5M-IN-SIGHT

 

I remember following those updates and with every update I was like WTF. What an event lol

[Buffy]

2 hours ago, Virtual_Insanity said:

All too well is a single. What rubbish are you talking ? These re recordings are the most promoted albums in the history of music. 

Dude. She released that on the DAY of the album release. It didn’t come out before. Adele had tons of promo leading up to her actual album release. Taylor’s sales came purely from preorders and streams on the week of release, no promo beforehand.

Edited November 23, 2021 by Buffy

[Cruel Summer]

4 minutes ago, wastedpotential said:

Unless there's something I'm not seeing (or maybe some of y'all are just blinded by the fact that this is an Adele album), this should perform like any other big name release does over time. It might hold on to the #1 position into December but I have doubts that it will hold the spot for 10 weeks like 25 or 24 (!) like 21 did. 

I think that this album is probably looking at something like 6 to 8 weeks at #1 (a very strong count). I don't know if there are any specific big names on the way who might actually overtake Adele on their first week, Beyoncé rumors notwithstanding, but it'll drop down to numbers that normal releases can overtake after the holiday season. Until then, though, I'm betting we see in the range of 200k to 400k most weeks.

[Da Vinci]

3 hours ago, Jennifer said:

I think one interesting aspect to look at is how a lot of the biggest pop girls followed this trajectory but with Adele we never really talked about it because her numbers with 21 were so astronomical and insane (arguably the biggest album ever w/ thriller)  that we didn’t think of her like that

 

But most of the girls had 2 massive albums/eras in a row and then fell off. Madonna w LAV and TB, Celine had FIY and LTAL, Mariah had MB and DD, Whitney had her debut and then Whitney, Britney had BOMT and Oops, even someone like Shania who isn’t a pop girl had TWIM and COO and then fell off with Up. 

 

this

all jokes aside, nobody in history can be on top forever that's why it's called a "peak"

and every fall you just mentioned were still very successful eras just like how 30 will be

 

even bad was a 35M decline from thriller  

[Buffy]

10 minutes ago, FAN said:

How are these numbers excellent yet yesterday you called Red TV an underperformance? 
 

No promo? are you serious? 

They are delusional 

[4Real]

I blame the ugly album cover

[wastedpotential]

1 minute ago, Cruel Summer said:

I think that this album is probably looking at something like 6 to 8 weeks at #1 (a very strong count). I don't know if there are any specific big names on the way who might actually overtake Adele on their first week, Beyoncé rumors notwithstanding, but it'll drop down to numbers that normal releases can overtake after the holiday season. Until then, though, I'm betting we see in the range of 200k to 400k most weeks.

I'm just not sure that sales will hold on this long. Anyone who wanted a physical copy of 25 had to wait weeks since it basically sold out repeatedly in the first few weeks (which is how it managed multiple 1M weeks) and didn't dip below 500k for like two months. 30... isn't having that problem. Anyone who wants the physical version will get it in the first two or three weeks, max, and anyone who wants the digital version probably already has it. Thus, after week 3 or 4 the album will be pretty reliant on streaming numbers. Unless she somehow manages to Dark Horse a hit out of OMG while EOM remains smashing, I really doubt that it'll hold up much over 100k once we get to week 5-6 and beyond.

 

Maybe the album will have insane legs since she does have that history, but if the numbers from tonight prove anything it's that the industry has changed a lot since she last put out music and that will have drastic impacts on her numbers

[Da Vinci]

1 hour ago, Mudkip said:

 

November 20, 2015

https://hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=298636&title=ADELE-EARLY-RESPONSE%3A-BEYOND-BELIEF-(UPDATE)

November 22, 2015 

https://hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=298650&title=ADELE%3A-BYE-BYE-BYE%2C-RECORD-BOOKS

November 26, 2015 

https://hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=298711&title=AN-ADELE-THANKSGIVING%3A-3.5M-IN-SIGHT

 

ugh i wish we could access the threads for these

truly a meteoric, earth shattering event

[Rep2000]

2 hours ago, Virtual_Insanity said:

All too well is a single. What rubbish are you talking ? These re recordings are the most promoted albums in the history of music. 

You sure about that, Mrs.

[Rep2000]

2 hours ago, Virtual_Insanity said:

Adele doing these numbers with no promo is pretty amazing really. Her power is scary. 

 

Also, its thanksgiving in the US so a lot of people are probaby busy getting ready for the holidays with their families. 

yeah yeah, we all know you're just a success stan who hopped on the Adele train. But you really start to give her a bad name with all these delulu excuses.

[gerardsuxx]

This are amazing numbers for any artist, but for her is a flop and people saying otherwise is looking forced, defensive and delusional.

[gerardsuxx]

She could have sold at least 1.5M but:

 

- Ugly album cover

- Bad lead single choice

- No obvious smash hit song on the album 

- it’s her worst album 

[Cruel Summer]

5 minutes ago, wastedpotential said:

I'm just not sure that sales will hold on this long. Anyone who wanted a physical copy of 25 had to wait weeks since it basically sold out repeatedly in the first few weeks (which is how it managed multiple 1M weeks) and didn't dip below 500k for like two months. 30... isn't having that problem. Anyone who wants the physical version will get it in the first two or three weeks, max, and anyone who wants the digital version probably already has it. Thus, after week 3 or 4 the album will be pretty reliant on streaming numbers. Unless she somehow manages to Dark Horse a hit out of OMG while EOM remains smashing, I really doubt that it'll hold up much over 100k once we get to week 5-6 and beyond.

 

Maybe the album will have insane legs since she does have that history, but if the numbers from tonight prove anything it's that the industry has changed a lot since she last put out music and that will have drastic impacts on her numbers

You might have a point - I was just thinking from the perspective of it probably selling a bit better week to week than Folklore did at first, but it's clear that this isn't devouring the entire market the way 25 did, and I shouldn't expect that. I've been very optimistic about her numbers throughout and there's a good chance I'm still overestimating what it's likely to do in further weeks. It's a little bit of an oddball situation since Adele is a less predictable quantity than Taylor or Drake, having released less albums, and since the gap means that we can't even compare it to 25 anyway with how the market has changed.

[FAN]

3 minutes ago, Rep2000 said:

yeah yeah, we all know you're just a success stan who hopped on the Adele train. But you really start to give her a bad name with all these delulu excuses.

The way they spent the first half of the year fake stanning BTS to spite Olivia and now they’re doing the same with Adele to drag Taylor when in reality they’ve spent months in the Harleys in Hawaii thread celebrating 5k stream increases and are an actual Katy stan 

[MingYouToo]

Its what she deserves for putting Easy on Trash as lead instead of OMSmash

[awesomepossum]

It would have been embarrassing if she couldn't beat a re-release. 

[wastedpotential]

2 minutes ago, Cruel Summer said:

You might have a point - I was just thinking from the perspective of it probably selling a bit better week to week than Folklore did at first, but it's clear that this isn't devouring the entire market the way 25 did, and I shouldn't expect that. I've been very optimistic about her numbers throughout and there's a good chance I'm still overestimating what it's likely to do in further weeks. It's a little bit of an oddball situation since Adele is a less predictable quantity than Taylor or Drake, having released less albums, and since the gap means that we can't even compare it to 25 anyway with how the market has changed.

There's also the tradeoff between having large GP support and the larger fanbase. Taylor album purchasers are immeasurably more likely to buy an album again a week or two later if they see it underperforming in sales metrics while average Adele album purchasers wouldn't bother (even if there are more of them in total). I empathize greatly with HDD when it comes to estimating weeks like this one, since the only real album you can compare 30 to is the album with the biggest sales week in modern history, or before that one of the best selling albums of modern history. No one moves units in a physical/digital/streaming ratio like Adele, and she hasn't released enough for the pattern to be well established, which creates a massive nightmare when making predictions. I really could see this swinging upward of 100k units either way from the 800-850k initial prediction, even 3 days into the tracking week. 

[iamvladd]

575k already according to BB. 
 

https://www.billboard.com/music/chart-beat/adele-30-2021-top-selling-album-three-days-1235001738/

 

Edited November 23, 2021 by iamvladd

[Cruel Summer]

1 minute ago, wastedpotential said:

There's also the tradeoff between having large GP support and the larger fanbase. Taylor album purchasers are immeasurably more likely to buy an album again a week or two later if they see it underperforming in sales metrics while average Adele album purchasers wouldn't bother (even if there are more of them in total). I empathize greatly with HDD when it comes to estimating weeks like this one, since the only real album you can compare 30 to is the album with the biggest sales week in modern history, or before that one of the best selling albums of modern history. No one moves units in a physical/digital/streaming ratio like Adele, and she hasn't released enough for the pattern to be well established, which creates a massive nightmare when making predictions. I really could see this swinging upward of 100k units either way from the 800-850k initial prediction, even 3 days into the tracking week. 

Not gonna lie, I wish I could be in the rooms where these analyses are being done. Imagine the unique opportunity to work with sales data on such a special release week in real time! An exceptionally challenging experience, I'm sure, but exactly what people with a passion for data want to do to help mark their own careers.

[MingYouToo]

All the adele stans here pretending like this isnt alarming lmfao its what she gets for releasing a cute snoozfest. Had she released Can I Get It she wouldve been doing 3M AGAIN

[Cruel Summer]

2 minutes ago, iamvladd said:

575k already according to BB. 
 

https://www.billboard.com/music/chart-beat/adele-30-2021-top-selling-album-three-days-1235001738/

Sounds right on track for the range HDD estimated, then. Sounds like it'll make it to about 625k pure sales, 175k SEA/TEA. Just from a quick gut check of course, without any detailed numbers.

[wastedpotential]

2 minutes ago, Cruel Summer said:

Not gonna lie, I wish I could be in the rooms where these analyses are being done. Imagine the unique opportunity to work with sales data on such a special release week in real time! An exceptionally challenging experience, I'm sure, but exactly what people with a passion for data want to do to help mark their own careers.

Statistics was not remotely close to my best subject in school () but this is all so intriguing to me that I have to agree. Watching how the tallying and predictions are done seems like it would be such a fascinating experience 

[PopFan1996]

 

Really the music industry

[fridayteenage]

6 minutes ago, Cruel Summer said:

Sounds right on track for the range HDD estimated, then. Sounds like it'll make it to about 625k pure sales, 175k SEA/TEA. Just from a quick gut check of course, without any detailed numbers.

25: 2.3 million to 3.38 million

 

If it's exactly proportional (which is of course a question mark), 500k to 735k sales.