Chiidish Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chiidish said: This would point to me (and some others) but keep in mind I in particular have been looking at him as potential mafia for several phases now. And to clarify I'm not pushing against looking into thecptz voters, just differentiating myself so you guys keep it in mind during deliberation. Anyways I'm off to work for a long shift but I'll try catching up during break.
Dessy Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 50 minutes ago, Evy said: just want to remind btw I was enforced day 2 I don't remember anyone else mentioned if they were enforced or not this game it could be valuable information especially since only evils have an enforcer in this game town has only the random lyssa enforcing thing left I asked about this earlier but I'm like 90% sure they haven't been enforcing to prevent us from clearing people base on it.
ATRL Moderator Element Posted January 9, 2020 ATRL Moderator Posted January 9, 2020 1 hour ago, EriKills said: I recall Speezy kind of defending Fierce a bit previous day, or at least providing theories as to why he could possibly be town, so I’m lowkey kinda sus of him tbh Speezy is fine
Evy Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 I feel like there are some mistakes in the official day 4 tally @Disruptive I at least checked and know dessy didn't lynch fierce first but only after sabbath also diarrhoea kept her lynch on me iirc fierce (13) - Dessy, mokitsu, luckystrike, Sabbath, Psycho, Chiidish, Navyofbadgals, Touch It, PinkBox, Astronomy, Nurr, Element, EriKills Speezy (5) - Dibbles, Evy, DougAF, kiiwii, fiercE Sabbath (1) - thecptz, Wonderlust (1) - Diarrhoea thecptz (1) - Mattheo Dibbles (1) - Speezy Hug (1) - Hug Pinkbox (1) - Wonderlust
Evy Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 okay guys actually I feel much better about element after reading some stuff from day 5 from them, they are prob towny after all but I haven't checked everyhting yet
Evy Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 don't shoot element for now for sure, cause there is a high chance she was the potenioal counterwagon to fierce at day 5
miguel Posted January 9, 2020 Author Posted January 9, 2020 26 minutes ago, Evy said: I feel like there are some mistakes in the official day 4 tally @Disruptive I at least checked and know dessy didn't lynch fierce first but only after sabbath also diarrhoea kept her lynch on me iirc fierce (13) - Dessy, mokitsu, luckystrike, Sabbath, Psycho, Chiidish, Navyofbadgals, Touch It, PinkBox, Astronomy, Nurr, Element, EriKills Speezy (5) - Dibbles, Evy, DougAF, kiiwii, fiercE Sabbath (1) - thecptz, Wonderlust (1) - Diarrhoea thecptz (1) - Mattheo Dibbles (1) - Speezy Hug (1) - Hug Pinkbox (1) - Wonderlust No, Diarrhoea changed his vote to Wonderlust. He even quoted me to fix it. Idk about the Dessy one. That day had a lot of movement / a lot of vote switching so it is possible that there are some mistakes in the lynching order.
Evy Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 day 4 tally fierce (13) - mokitsu, luckystrike, Sabbath, dessy, Psycho, Chiidish, Navyofbadgals, Touch It, PinkBox, Astronomy, Nurr, Element, EriKills Speezy (5) - Dibbles, Evy, DougAF, kiiwii, fiercE Sabbath (1) - thecptz, Wonderlust (1) - Diarrhoea thecptz (1) - Mattheo Dibbles (1) - Speezy Hug (1) - Hug Pinkbox (1) - Wonderlust okay looking at the day 4 tally and how the whole thing went down this is where I am at atm astronomy and nurr had the fishiest lynches on fierce erikills switched last sec from speezy to fierce maybe to gain some town credit navy just still because of the other tallys kinda poitning to her I am not sure if there is another evil on the speezy wagon but if there is, it is most likely dougaf overall looking at day 4 I do suspect diarrhoe the most, they only really said non-game related stuff mostly, seems like they are trying to not appear inactive to not get targeted as much as the other inactive but ye don't know what to contribute in a towny way hug is? but ye him coming in just to vote himself, idk maybe the evils told him to vote someone but not jump on some wagon that could lead to other evils so he lynched himself mattheo only seemed to care about thecptz from most susp to least susp: diarrhoe nurr astronomy hug eri kills doug af mattheo
Evy Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 for hephaisteus I would try to predict which player could be next one for getting cursed and laying the trap there (probably the people who get trusted the most will be targeted for a curse) I would advice the protector to protect kiiwii, mokitsu, touch it, psycho or element if hermes still has their power try to go for the tallys that could give you the most info athena should still imo go for the people we lack the most information on since clearing ppl up that are hard to read is as usefull as finding evils and ye atm I would prob would shoot diarrhoe or nurr but on the other side they dind't had chance to defend themselves yet
Evy Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 how many hours left btw? I need to so smth in rl and am not sure if I can look at day 5 tally before night ends
mokitsu Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/8/2020 at 7:55 PM, luckystrike said: could it be possible that thecptz is mafia and whoever the silencer is saw that he was acting dumb and everyone was suspecting him so thetys decided to silence him to make him look innocent/try to get rid of any suspicions we had on him? or am I just talking out of my ass On 1/8/2020 at 8:02 PM, Dessy said: In my experience, a mafia silence is typically self-requested. On 1/8/2020 at 8:10 PM, luckystrike said: so a mafia can’t be silenced by another mafia? 23 hours ago, Dessy said: I meant a mafia member would request that they be silenced. In their chat. this interaction is kinda weird to me because lucky has played before and should know that mafia can silence their own but anyway 23 hours ago, PinkBox said: Haven't caught up yet, but mafia silencing cptz when he's already silent and right after we were suspecting him? Lynch thecptz 23 hours ago, luckystrike said: Adding to this, why on earth would mafia decide to silence thecptz if he was a townie? He’s done absolutely nothing to help town/damage mafia and in fact, his trolling and behavior have him on the verge of being lynched by town, which is actually on mafia’s favor? If the silencer was smart they would’ve been like “oh great townies want to lynch thecptz because he’s trolling that’s another win for mafia there goes another dead townie”. If they just silenced him because his trolling is useless and annoying then that’s a dumb ass move and they just wasted their ability on thecptz. The “let me silence my fellow mafia member thecptz to try to get rid of any suspicions about him” scenario seems more likely to me. 23 hours ago, EriKills said: To add onto thecptz theories, he lynched navyofbagels Day 1 and Day 2, both were days in which a mafia was killed. He says he did it as a non-serious vote but maybe it was a guise for not wanting to vote for a fellow mafia. But then again as a mafia member wouldn’t you want to vote with the majority to not stick out? +we know at least one mafia member has this logic hence Mr Blue Shirt voting for Touya fairly early on in the bandwagon. im leaning more mafia than town with him, maybe we’ll get more insight after today’s Fierce vote. 23 hours ago, Chiidish said: Very convenient silence. Going with Lynch thecptz as second bandwagon priority. 23 hours ago, Hug said: After reading the latest posts I like this theory the most. Lynch thecptz 22 hours ago, luckystrike said: Don’t see why y’all say discussing thecptz situation is useless, yes he is silenced and not able to say anything but I mean after seeing how he’s playing the game he probably won’t bother to defend himself properly. I personally just stated the facts to have more reasons to be suspicious of him so we can lynch him when we’re done with fiercE cause imo there’s enough reason to do so. Leaving that to the side, to the people who are random voting, maybe if y’all explained what makes you feel suspicious we could make some progress instead of being stuck discussing a silent bitch well these are the ppl that pushed hardest for a cptz vote i do recall fierce randomly voting for luckystrike a couple times with a lowkey shoddy motive - On 1/8/2020 at 12:22 AM, fiercE said: Why vote luckystrike? - I feel like he's just there throwing people's name and then vote later on (like what I did on Day 2 the only difference is I was looking for other evidence to solidify my claim and the only thing I have is a conversation between Hades and a dead mafia). - If you see the voting pattern for this day it looks like it is okay for him to flip flop votes together with mokitsu. imo this motive is weak enough that even if more people voted for them, the bandwagon would never be big, but relevant enough (considering fierce was leading the bandwagon at the time and would soon enough be exposed as a mafia) that when looking back, luckystrike would be cleared of a mafiaread because of it. i haven't seen luckystrike as a mafia so far but this made the reconsider. thoughts?
mokitsu Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 21 hours ago, Diarrhoea said: fiercE is Mafia I cannot say the same for Element this made me ease on any suspicions i had of diahrerora + element lowkey roleclaiming later on although it could easily be a mafia ploy
EriKills Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 23 minutes ago, Evy said: erikills switched last sec from speezy to fierce maybe to gain some town credit Yeah nn Ive been voting late for pretty much every vote tbh until I feel certain on someone. I did vote Speezy early on tho because I wanted to get some insight from him since his behavior has been v sus to me (but it seems a potential townie has cleared his name so let me back off). Tbh I think that’s much more useful for town than just placing a vote on Fierce early on and calling it a day. I know I’m low on your sus list but just wanted to throw that out there since we’ll for sure be referencing your notes and I figured my name would be brought up eventually with me always voting so late!
mokitsu Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Evy said: how many hours left btw? I need to so smth in rl and am not sure if I can look at day 5 tally before night ends there's still like 7?
Evy Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, EriKills said: Yeah nn Ive been voting late for pretty much every vote tbh until I feel certain on someone. I did vote Speezy early on tho because I wanted to get some insight from him since his behavior has been v sus to me (but it seems a potential townie has cleared his name so let me back off). Tbh I think that’s much more useful for town than just placing a vote on Fierce early on and calling it a day. I know I’m low on your sus list but just wanted to throw that out there since we’ll for sure be referencing your notes and I figured my name would be brought up eventually with me always voting so late! tbh I don't necesarrily suspect you because of what you did but mostly because of process of elimination like from the people I have some sort of reason to trust over you making you getting down to the suspect list 9 minutes ago, mokitsu said: this interaction is kinda weird to me because lucky has played before and should know that mafia can silence their own but anyway well these are the ppl that pushed hardest for a cptz vote i do recall fierce randomly voting for luckystrike a couple times with a lowkey shoddy motive - imo this motive is weak enough that even if more people voted for them, the bandwagon would never be big, but relevant enough (considering fierce was leading the bandwagon at the time and would soon enough be exposed as a mafia) that when looking back, luckystrike would be cleared of a mafiaread because of it. i haven't seen luckystrike as a mafia so far but this made the reconsider. thoughts? this could make sense I was aswell wondering what it actually meant that fierce kept his vote on luckystrike cause he obv knew lucky wouldn't be lynched it could be either to frame lucky or trying to clear her, maybe he also was just afraid of voting someone else thinking if he targeeted someeone else we could guess their allignment based on him voting that person based on playstyle I don't suspect lucky as much but ye I don't have much reason to back up why I would trust her being town from the ppl voting fierce early on day 4 I trust lucky the least
luckystrike Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 26 minutes ago, mokitsu said: this interaction is kinda weird to me because lucky has played before and should know that mafia can silence their own but anyway well these are the ppl that pushed hardest for a cptz vote i do recall fierce randomly voting for luckystrike a couple times with a lowkey shoddy motive - imo this motive is weak enough that even if more people voted for them, the bandwagon would never be big, but relevant enough (considering fierce was leading the bandwagon at the time and would soon enough be exposed as a mafia) that when looking back, luckystrike would be cleared of a mafiaread because of it. i haven't seen luckystrike as a mafia so far but this made the reconsider. thoughts? I have played before but I genuinely didn’t know if mafia could silence their own, don’t see how it’s weird that I asked a game rule but okay Now I pushed for a cptz vote but not for that day phase, I kept my fierce vote since the beginning, I just shared my theory and said cptz would be my lynch candidate for the next day due to his behavior and the very weird silence he got, to which he defended himself tonight properly (which still didn’t get rid of all my suspicions but at least calmed the waters on him a bit). Now moving on to fierce voting for me, I honestly have absolutely no idea why he would vote for me, the reason he gave when I asked him why was very dumb and made no sense “he’s just throwing people’s names around and then voting” which is a lie, everytime I’ve shared my thoughts on someone who I think are suspicious (who have been Dessy, Wonderlust and thecptz) I’ve used fair statements that actually make sense. 30 minutes ago, Evy said: the bandwagon would never be big, but relevant enough (considering fierce was leading the bandwagon at the time and would soon enough be exposed as a mafia) that when looking back, luckystrike would be cleared of a mafiaread because of it. Well this actually makes a lot of sense, but I mean, to defend myself, I don’t really think he had a motive to clear me instead of someone else, I don’t think people suspected of me before all of this and there’s people who he could’ve tried to clear instead of me if I was mafia. And just to plead my case, I’ve never bandwagoned and everytime I vote I wait for a solid reason why.
Dibbles Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 so I've read most posts back, especially the great analysis from Evy (the real mvp ) and I'm more confused than before, but at least we have some info to go on.
Nurr Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Evy said: day 4 tally fierce (13) - mokitsu, luckystrike, Sabbath, dessy, Psycho, Chiidish, Navyofbadgals, Touch It, PinkBox, Astronomy, Nurr, Element, EriKills Speezy (5) - Dibbles, Evy, DougAF, kiiwii, fiercE Sabbath (1) - thecptz, Wonderlust (1) - Diarrhoea thecptz (1) - Mattheo Dibbles (1) - Speezy Hug (1) - Hug Pinkbox (1) - Wonderlust okay looking at the day 4 tally and how the whole thing went down this is where I am at atm astronomy and nurr had the fishiest lynches on fierce erikills switched last sec from speezy to fierce maybe to gain some town credit navy just still because of the other tallys kinda poitning to her I am not sure if there is another evil on the speezy wagon but if there is, it is most likely dougaf overall looking at day 4 I do suspect diarrhoe the most, they only really said non-game related stuff mostly, seems like they are trying to not appear inactive to not get targeted as much as the other inactive but ye don't know what to contribute in a towny way hug is? but ye him coming in just to vote himself, idk maybe the evils told him to vote someone but not jump on some wagon that could lead to other evils so he lynched himself mattheo only seemed to care about thecptz from most susp to least susp: diarrhoe nurr astronomy hug eri kills doug af mattheo I said I'd remain my vote on sabbath until I could read his defense and ultimately he seemed more genuine to me
Nurr Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Evy said: for hephaisteus I would try to predict which player could be next one for getting cursed and laying the trap there (probably the people who get trusted the most will be targeted for a curse) I would advice the protector to protect kiiwii, mokitsu, touch it, psycho or element if hermes still has their power try to go for the tallys that could give you the most info athena should still imo go for the people we lack the most information on since clearing ppl up that are hard to read is as usefull as finding evils and ye atm I would prob would shoot diarrhoe or nurr but on the other side they dind't had chance to defend themselves yet I thought you wanted, you know what role, to check thecptz and me
Evy Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Nurr said: I thought you wanted, you know what role, to check thecptz and me If you are town and got shot cause of my flop ass I just wanna say sorry already do you have any thoughts else btw, whom do you suspect atm?
Chiidish Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 On my break, but seems things have slowed down as per usual at night. Guess we'll stay perched for @Dessy and @Evy to do all the heavy lifting
PinkBox Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 I did push for cptz, but it made sense at the time and we wanted to spread the votes, he was the 2nd suspect
Evy Posted January 9, 2020 Posted January 9, 2020 also another thing I wanna mention is that after my tally anlyses that the mafia read aswell they will probably will try to change their behaviour (of course I can't be sure if I was really right with my assumptions tho in the first place) but ye don't analyse the following tallys with the same assumptions I did, cause maybe they will just all jump on the same wagon or smth like that so try to look from now on on the tallys and try to see who put their votes with an actual reason and who just did it to blend in
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