Viva La Coldplay Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 (edited) How is SJLT predicted to be at 13 next week? It's top 5 on both itunes and spotify, and is doing great on youtube. Can someone please explain. Edited March 9, 2017 by Viva La Coldplay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderao Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Viva La Coldplay said: How is SJLT predicted to be at 13 next week? It's top 5 on both itunes and spotify, and is doing great on youtube. Can someone please explain. Standard second week sales & YT drop It's not top 20 on YT for this tracking week so far (3/3 - 3/6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
igetfilthy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 hours ago, simmnfierzig said: 54 Shining 99 (+7) a slow grower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsuko Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 hours ago, UNNAMI said: 700 fking points someone should make a chart with most points like 1000something Adele Hello something Adele Hello something Adele hello Ed @simmnfierzig? I think last year Work had the highest point total in a single week, and 2nd was Closer (or maybe the other way around, I remember they were close). But it would be unfair to compare now to 2015 because there's been 2 formula changes since then, so the points won't be worth the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viva La Coldplay Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 23 minutes ago, alexanderao said: Standard second week sales & YT drop It's not top 20 on YT for this tracking week so far (3/3 - 3/6). Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capruni Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 hours ago, Letters From Adi said: Hello had like 2k points tho I don't remember to see 2k points on @simmnfierzigpredictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opruh Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 CTTR Katy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QueenofCopyPaste Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Thats What I Like btw is radio #1 potential 8 formats in support currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The recurrency rule should be 50/26/-4 for the Hot 100. That's all that's needed. Yes. at some point, BB should retire a song, but not nearly as aggressively as they do right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 hours ago, Assassin said: That was super mean. Only 1 point different so hopefully IFIC can push it down to #11. I'm pulling for Closer. Maybe next week IFIC can get into the Top 10. There's still life left in the song. Closer has a chance to tie an important record. I'm not 100% sure I agree Closer is as big as songs like Uptown Funk. But if Closer has already tied Top 3, and broken Top 5 by two weeks, Closer should at least get to tie the Top 10 record too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capruni Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 27 minutes ago, ChartsFan said: 1869 1426 1214 1145 simm's predictions for the first four weeks of Hello. Two of them are final, the other two are within the last couple days of the tracking week. Oh thank you, I didnt remember... So it's the second one highest predictions points since Adele's Hello... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, ChartsFan said: Sorry, but a year is not aggressive, The Top 50 was meant to be left alone, and was for almost 24 years (after first two months of SS era and through the end of the 2015 CY). BB didn't add in 25/52 until just over a year ago. And 50/20 doesn't make sense either because 20 weeks is not a regularly defined time period. 26 weeks = 6 months, which makes a lot more sense than 20 weeks. Also, not removing songs until after their fourth week of declines ensures there are no messy re-entries. I've got to get to bed though. I can't argue about recurrency rules right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderao Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, ChartsFan said: I'm actually not in favour of any recurrent rule. I don't think it is okay to defend some purge line while tearing apart another. It's all arbitrary. i believe the problem can be fixed with a better formula. I believe the different components should be providing an equal share, unlike now where the consumption in one component has no upper limit on contributing points. With a balanced sales, radio and streaming system and none providing over 33% of points, songs thst hang around in one component will have much less influence on the overall charts, causing faster turnover in all areas of the chart. First of all, what's the problem? The chart being slow is not a problem. If the public takes a while to get tired of songs, so be it. That's not Billboard's fault, and it's certainly not a problem. Secondly, I don't see why it would make sense to decrease streaming's influence so much when streaming is growing so rapidly (and increase sales's when sales are declining rapidly). In fact, the opposite is what makes the most sense given those current trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monster Megamind Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Jeiboy said: Thats What I Like btw is radio #1 potential 8 formats in support currently It will go 1 for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monster Megamind Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 hours ago, Viva La Coldplay said: How is SJLT predicted to be at 13 next week? It's top 5 on both itunes and spotify, and is doing great on youtube. Can someone please explain. Low radio. Second week drop in sales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MALAMENTE Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 15 hours ago, simmnfierzig said: 19 It Ain't Me 186 (+3) C'mon sis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The Billboard Hot 100 will never reflect the 100 most popular songs in the country as long as they have recurrent rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slobro Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 (edited) Recurrent rules are 100% necessary with the way radio there continues to overplay the same songs for years even if no one's buying or streaming them anymore. And because airplay counts so much towards the Hot 100, it'd be all old songs If it was a pure sales + streams chart like the UK chart, it wouldn't be necessary. You don't really see old songs hogging up their chart despite no recurrent rules. Edited March 9, 2017 by slobro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simmnfierzig Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, ChartsFan said: Because you are looking st it as an us vs them situation, instead of looking st each component as an equal partner that has different types of consumers. its really not a fair system that compares apples and oranges and grapes. Each component has its different type of use and method for measuring thst groups consumption. Then it's all murdered by mixing it all together with some random formula of so may AI is a sale and so many streams are a sale, leave each coponent as its own, ranking its own consumption and assigning it a value from 0-33%. It doesn't have to be a scale. that way no group of consumers is punished for not being a consumer of x type. As is the system now. That really woudln't doesn't work... How would a song with 1k sales, 0 airplay and 10 million streams rank? And what do you mean with "0-33%" % of what? Edited March 9, 2017 by simmnfierzig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike3009 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 They should ditch the 52/25 rule and change the 20/50 to 26/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simmnfierzig Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, ChartsFan said: Lets see. I'd give a song like that: 0 percent AirPlay points .5 percent sales points 40% percent streaming points using 200 points per category. 0 points AirPlay 1 point sales 80 points streaming, = 81 points. thats just a ballpark, using numbers thst would equal a current number one with 600 points using your system. I wouldn't make it a perfect system of 1st 33%, 2nd 32.6% etc, but use a system that uses the "mean" to determine what percent a song gets. sounds complicate but that is whw5 compu534/ are for, doing the number crunching. It's really not thst big a song, it just has streaming support, charts should reflect that. You would use a maximum of points per category?? So 30 million streams would get the same points as 40 million? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simmnfierzig Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, ChartsFan said: Yes. The top song in each category would always get 200, or whatever max points were. Number two might get 199 if it was almost the same as number one, or it (#2) might get 50 points in the week hello debuted The thing is, in any given week it doesn't really matter if a song gets 20m or 40m streams as the top streamed song, it's still the top streamed song that week. And that is what a chart is, a snapshot of just that week, the week hello debuted. It mattered for sales how much it sold. It mattered how much AirPlay it got, how much streaming. We have and will always have those numbers to compare how hello sold vs SOY. But on the chsrts it was just the top selling song and the top hit overall, and by how much or why really doesn't matter in as much as the chart in history matters. Which is simply a listing of 1-100. No offense, but I really think that's a terrible idea. Yeah it would work like that, so thanks for clearing that up, but if a song is massive in 1 metric the Hot 100 should reflect that no matter what it's doing in the other 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monster Megamind Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 (edited) 46 minutes ago, ChartsFan said: No offence. We are each entitled to our views, and with respect. Thanks for the chance to discuss this. i just think that if a song is massive in only one category and floundering or Non existent in the other two, that is also an indication of a songs popularity, or more precisely, it's lack of popularity in two out of three metrics, and thst needs to be reflected. Yes. But You can't expect the radio impressions to build up to 100 million AI in first week right? If a song debuts big, it means the digital audience got a taste of it first. So it measures exactly that. Basically hot 100 measures how much it is popular in the population in total. Edited March 9, 2017 by Monster Megamind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monster Megamind Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Radio is an extremely important metric to keep a song stable in the charts. Because it's the only metric which truly gives consumption for free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jezebelvictoria Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It's funny how 'That's What I Like' will probably go #1 when I bet everyone on his team was so sure '24k Magic' was going to a massive #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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