castle13 Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/25/2017 at 0:54 AM, simmnfierzig said: Full early predictions 1 Bad And Boujee 458 (=) -2% 2 Shape Of You 401 (=) +9% 3 Bad Things 261 (+3) +4% 4 Black Beatles 260 (-1) -13% 5 Closer 259 (-1) -13% 6 Starboy 251 (-1) -10% 7 I Don't Wanna Live Forever 241 (+1) +1% 8 Fake Love 234 (+3) +0% 9 Don't Wanna Know 220 (=) -7% 10 24k Magic 215 (=) -9% 11 Scars To Your Beautiful 215 (+2) -1% 12 Bounce Back 208 (+3) +12% 13 Paris 193 (-6) -22% 14 Side To Side 192 (-2) -14% 15 Caroline 188 (-1) -1% 16 Love On The Brain 184 (+1) +5%17 I Feel It Coming 170 (+2) 18 Let Me Love You 165 (-2) -10% 19 All Time Low 153 (+3) 20 Heathens 147 (=) -3% Hide contents 21 iSpy 138 (+11) 22 Starving 137 (+1) 23 Juju On That Beat 134 (-5) 24 Broccoli 131 (-3) 25 Can't Stop The Feeling 127 (-1) 26 Mercy 124 (-1) 27 Say You Won't Let Go 118 (+3) 28 This Town 117 (+1) 29 Castle On The Hill 117 (-1) 30 Treat You Better 116 (-4) 31 Cheap Thrills 110 (-4) 32 Water Under The Bridge 108 (+2) 33 Rockabye 103 (+5) 34 T-Shirt 101 (+9) 35 Love Me Now 101 (-4) 36 Both 97 (+8) 37 X 89 (=) 38 Better Man 88 (+3) 39 Party 87 (+6) 40 Blue Ain't Your Color 87 (-5) 41 Party Monster 86 (-5) 42 Don't Let Me Down 85 (-9) 43 Deja Vu 81 (+5) 44 The Greatest 81 (-5) 45 Used To This 79 (+4) 46 Chill Bill 78 (-6) 47 Cold Water 76 (-5) 48 Dirt On My Boots 75 (+9) 49 Selfish 73 (+10) 50 You Was Right 73 (-4) 51 Goosebumps 72 (+20) 52 HandClap 71 (+2) 53 A Guy With A Girl 71 (-2) 54 No Heart 70 (-4) 55 Chantaje 69 (-3) 56 Redbone 67 (+7) 57 Star Of The Show 66 (-2) 58 I Got You 64 (-5) 59 Swang 63 (+2) 60 Location 61 (+10) 61 Make Me (Cry) 61 (+1) 62 How Far I'll Go Alessia 61 (-6) 63 Seein Red 61 (+3) 64 Moves 61 (+1) 65 Way Down We Go 61 (+20) 66 Fresh Eyes 57 (+2) 67 Play That Song 56 (+2) 68 Down 53 (+31) 69 Sober Saturday Night 53 (+6) 70 Kill A Word 51 (+4) 71 Congratulations 51 (+10) 72 Alone 51 (-12) 73 OTW 50 (-1) 74 Wanna Be That Song 50 (-10) 75 Dirty Laundry 49 (-17) 76 Think A Little Less 49 (=) 77 Sneakin 48 (-4) 78 Call On Me 48 (+1) 79 Water 46 (+1) 80 Today 46 (+12) 81 80s Mercedes 46 (+1) 82 Not Nice 45 (+13) 83 Timeless 45 (+3) 84 Red Opps 45 (-6) 85 Weak 45 (debut) 86 Despacito 43 (+2) 87 That's What I Like 43 (re-entry) 88 How Far I'll Go Aulil 43 (-21) 89 Just Hold On 42 (+7) 90 Sex With Me 42 (-3) 91 The Weekend 41 (-2) 92 Song For Another Time 38 (-9) 93 If The Boot Fits 38 (re-entry) 94 Beibs In The Trap 38 (+3) 95 Road Less Traveled 38 (re-entry) 96 Black 37 (+2) 97 Neighbors 37 (-13) 98 You're Welcome 37 (-7) 99 Parachute 37 (-9) 100 Say It 37 (-6) Others Some Kind Of Drug 37 Yeah Boy 36 Million Reasons 36 Guys My Age 35 Going Recurrent In The Name Of Love Nn just saw the rest of the predictions. Yasss finally Better Man is above Keith! #1 on Hot Country Songs
brianc33710 Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 10 minutes ago, castle13 said: Nn just saw the rest of the predictions. Yasss finally Better Man is above Keith! #1 on Hot Country Songs Keith just started getting AC airplay though. That might slow down his fall a little.
brianc33710 Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 0:41 AM, alexanderao said: Earned It has to be one of the biggest #3-peaking hits this decade. It's 5x platinum now! I'm pretty sure this honor goes to Radioactive lol. It's been Diamond for quite a while, and of course had unprecedented longevity.
alexanderao Posted January 29, 2017 Author Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, brianc33616 said: I'm pretty sure this honor goes to Radioactive lol. It's been Diamond for quite a while, and of course had unprecedented longevity. Well yeah Radioactive is obviously the biggest, I just said EI was one of the biggest.
brianc33710 Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 21 hours ago, Letters From Adi said: Lovestory 6M WANEGBT 4M SIO 4M so yeah, she underperformed by quite a lot. SIO passed 5 M months ago. BS is around 4.5 M.
Letters From Adi Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, brianc33616 said: SIO passed 5 M months ago. BS is around 4.5 M. thanks for proving me right <3.
simmnfierzig Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, Monster Megamind said: Can IDWLF get a 3 peak? It will 100% be at least #3 next week.
Monster Megamind Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said: It will 100% be at least #3 next week. That's enough for me based on the quality of this song. Taylor can write better songs.
ARTPØP Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 Better Predictions. (01) Bad and Boujee || iTunes: #3 || Radio: #21 || Spotify: #1 || YouTube: #1 (=) (02) Shape of You || iTunes: #2 || Radio: #5 || Spotify: #2 || YouTube: #5 (=) (03) Black Beatles || iTunes: #12* || Radio: #12 || Spotify: #11 || YouTube: #4 (=) (04) Bad Things || iTunes: #6 || Radio: #3 || Spotify: #12 || YouTube: #14 (+2) (05) Closer || iTunes: #14 || Radio: #4 || Spotify: #13 || YouTube: #7 (-1) (06) I Don't Wanna Live Forever || iTunes: #1 || Radio: #11 || Spotify: #4 || YouTube: #2 (+2) (07) Starboy || iTunes: #28 || Radio: #13 || Spotify: #8 || YouTube: #6 (-2) (08) Fake Love || iTunes: #19 || Radio: #8 || Spotify: #3 || YouTube: N/A (+3) (09) Don't Wanna Know || iTunes: #15 || Radio: #1 || Spotify: #20 || YouTube: N/A (=) (10) Scars To Your Beautiful || iTunes: #20 || Radio: #2 || Spotify: #69 || YouTube: N/A (+3) (11) 24K Magic || iTunes: #5 || Radio: #10 || Spotify: #24 || YouTube: #12 (-1) (12) Paris || iTunes: #7 || Radio: #24 || Spotify: #5 || YouTube: N/A (-5) (13) Bounce Back || iTunes: #33 || Radio: #30 || Spotify: #7 || YouTube: N/A (+2) (14) Side To Side || iTunes: #43 || Radio: #6 || Spotify: #33 || YouTube: #9 (-2) (15) Love On The Brain || iTunes: #18 || Radio: #9 || Spotify: #67 || YouTube: N/A (+2) (16) I Feel It Coming || iTunes: #8 || Radio: #14 || Spotify: #14 || YouTube: N/A (+3) (17) Caroline || iTunes: #31 || Radio: #31 || Spotify: #10 || YouTube: #10 (-2) (18) Let Me Love You || iTunes: #24 || Radio: #7 || Spotify: #48 || YouTube: N/A (-2) (19) All Time Low || iTunes: #8* || Radio: #36 || Spotify: #19 || YouTube: N/A (+3) (20) iSpy || iTunes: #11 || Radio: N/A || Spotify: #9 || YouTube: N/A (+12)
fridayteenage Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 Pull through, Camila, outpeak your former band! Very close 3-5 though. T10 in multiple components in the most recent daily updates: Shape of You 2 sales, 5 youtube, 2 spotify, 6 radio Bad and Boujee 3 sales, 1 youtube, 1 spotify I Don't Wanna Live Forever 1 sales, 2 youtube, 4 spotify Bad Things 6 sales, 3 radio Closer 7 youtube, 4 radio Paris 7 sales, 5 spotify Fake Love 3 spotify, 9 radio 24k Magic 5 sales, 8 radio Starboy 6 youtube, 8 spotify Side to Side 9 youtube, 5 radio Caroline 10 youtube, 10 spotify Poor non-airplay-inflated Goddess Swift. What a clear trinity.
simmnfierzig Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 34 minutes ago, Monster Megamind said: That's enough for me based on the quality of this song. Taylor can write better songs. Well her #1s are some of her worst songs. So IDWLF going #1 would fit in there
fridayteenage Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said: Well her #1s are some of her worst songs. So IDWLF going #1 would fit in there wrong
simmnfierzig Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, fridayteenage said: wrong WANEGBT, Shake It Off and Bad Blood are in the bottom 10% of her discography. Still good songs though. Blank Space is the exception.
Thuggin Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 Scars To Your Beautiful being #2 on radio yet #69 on Spotify
simmnfierzig Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 Final predictions 1 Bad and Boujee 454 (=) 2 Shape Of YOu 401 (=) 3 Closer 267 (+1) 4 Bad Things 259 (+2) 5 Black Beatles 258 (-2) 6 Starboy 256 (-1) 7 I Don't Wanna Live Forever 244 (+1) 8 Fake Love 226 (+3) 9 Don't Wanna Know 222 (=) 10 24k Magic 216 (=) 11 Scars To Your Beautiful 215 (+2) 12 Bunce Back 207 (+3) 13 Side To Side 200 (-1) 14 Paris 193 (-7) 15 Caroline 188 (-1) 16 Love On The Brain 184 (+1) 17 I Feel It Coming 168 (+2) 18 Let Me Love You 168 (-2) 19 All Time Low 150 (+3) 20 Juju On That Beat 146 (-2) Spoiler 21 Heathens 142 (-1) 22 iSpy 134 (+10) 23 Broccoli 132 (-2) 24 Starving 132 (-1) 25 Mercy 130 (=) 26 Can't Stop The Feeling 129 (-2) 27 This Town 121 (+2) 28 Castle On The Hill 120 (=) 29 Say You Won't Let Go 120 (+1) 30 Cheap Thrills 112 (-3) 31 Treat You Better 111 (-5) 32 Rockabye 108 (+6) 33 Water Under The Bridge 108 (+1) 34 Love Me Now 103 (-3) 35 T-Shirt 99 (+8) 36 Blue Ain't Your Color 91 (-1) 37 Don't Let Me Down 90 38 Better Man 90 (+3) 39 X 89 (-2) 40 Party 88 (+5) 41 The Greatest 85 (-2) 42 Both 84 (+2) 43 Party Monster 83 (-7) 44 Used To This 79 (+5) 45 Deja Vu 79 (+3) 46 Chill Bill 77 (-6) 47 Dirt On My Boots 75 (+10) 48 Cold Water 75 (-6) 49 Goosebumps 75 (+22) 50 No Heat 75 (=) 51 HandClap 72 (+3) 52 Star Of The Show 71 (+3) 53 A Guy With A Girl 70 (-2) 54 Selfish 69 (+5) 55 Way Down We Go 68 (+30) 56 Chantaje 68 (-4) 57 Down 66 (+42) 58 Make Me (Cry) 64 (+4) 59 I Got You 64 (-6) 60 Moves 62 (+5) 61 Swang 62 (=) 62 Play That Song 62 (+7) 63 Location 62 (+7) 64 Seein Red 60 (+2) 65 Redbone 59 (-2) 66 How Far I'll Go Alessia 58 (+1) 67 Congratulations 58 (+14) 68 Fresh Eyes 56 (=) 69 Alone 53 (-9) 70 Sober Saturday Night 52 (+5) 71 Wanna Be That Song 52 (-7) 72 Think A Little Less 51 (+4) 73 OTW 50 (-1) 74 Kill A Word 50 (=) 75 Dirty Laundry 50 (-17) 76 Call On Me 49 (+3) 77 That's What I Like 48 (re-entry) 78 Water 47 (+2) 79 Sneakin 47 (-6) 80 Despacito 46 (+8) 81 80s Mercedes 46 (+1) 82 Today 46 (+10) 83 How Far I'll Go Auli'l 46 (-16) 84 Timeless 45 (+2) 85 Red Opps 45 (-7) 86 Weak 44 (debut) 87 Just Hold On 44 (+9) 88 The Weekend 44 (+1) 89 Not Nice 44 (+6) 90 Sex With Me 42 (-3) 91 Beibs In The Trap 40 (+6) 92 If The Boot Fits 40 (debut) 93 Neighbors 39 (-9) 94 Road Less Traveled 39 (debut) 95 Song For Another Time 39 (-12) 96 Black 38 (+2) 97 My **** 38 (+3) 98 Some Kind Of Drug 37 (debut) 99 Yeah Boy 36 (debut) 100 Say It 36 (-6) Others Million Reasons 35 Guys My Age 34
Thuggin Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 Nnnnn Camila stans have been bragging about her going #3 all week and now it might not even happen
Chainsmoker Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Thuggin said: Nnnnn Camila stans have been bragging about her going #3 all week and now it might not even happen Lol. I don't like throwing around the "deserve" word a lot when it comes to charts, but a #3 peak would be kinda undeserving, especially when much bigger hits in the past year (WFH, S2S, 24M, ITAPII) only peaked at #4. Edited January 29, 2017 by Chainsmoker
Chainsmoker Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 Also, @simmnfierzig, what does your username mean?
Thuggin Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Chainsmoker said: Lol. I don't like throwing around the "deserve" word a lot when it comes to charts, but a #3 peak would have been kinda undeserving, especially when much bigger hits in the past year (WFH, S2S, 24M, ITAPII) only peaked at #4. Yeah, Side To Side had like 60+ more points in its prediction the week it jumped to #4 iirc and those other songs definitely felt much bigger too, so a #3 peak would have been generous. My House is another #4 song that felt bigger. LMLY too (although it did rely on being discounted its entire run).
simmnfierzig Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Chainsmoker said: Also, @simmnfierzig, what does your username mean? It's a mumbling of the German word for 47. Was looking for a nickname and was playing Hitman with a friend back then and the main character there is agent 47.
simmnfierzig Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 Super super early rough estimate for next week 1 Bad and Boujee 488 2 Shape Of You 486 3 I Don't Wanna Live Forever 439
Thuggin Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 I feel like the movie premiere will be enough to push IDWLF to #1, especially if it's still discounted.
Chainsmoker Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, Thuggin said: Yeah, Side To Side had like 60+ more points in its prediction the week it jumped to #4 iirc and those other songs definitely felt much bigger too, so a #3 peak would have been generous. My House is another #4 song that felt bigger. LMLY too (although it did rely on being discounted its entire run). What a lot of people don't realize with the hot 100, is the amount of luck that comes with getting a good peak. So many #2/#3 peaking hits that could have gone #1 at a different time in the year. 3 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said: It's a mumbling of the German word for 47. Was looking for a nickname and was playing Hitman with a friend back then and the main character there is agent 47. Cool!
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