official chart Billboard Charts (January 14-20, 2018)

[Mattyboy]

8 hours ago, ChandlerBing said:

Filthy being the biggest lead single bomb of the decade.

It debuted in the top 10. Not a bomb.

[ClashAndBurn]

9 hours ago, ChandlerBing said:

Filthy being the biggest lead single bomb of the decade.

"Perfect Illusion" and "Make Me... (Ooh)" did way worse, but ok.

[FAN]

So, after Havana has ha week, how many more weeks of Perfect at #1 will we have to suffer through? 

[ClashAndBurn]

1 minute ago, FAN said:

So, after Havana has ha week, how many more weeks of Perfect at #1 will we have to suffer through? 

Could be another month, or two. Depends on whether "Finesse" can make the necessary gains to surpass it. But realistically, I could see "Perfect" having more weeks at #1 than "Shape Of You" got. Would only need 7 weeks for that, which wouldn't be a reach. Just depends on how weak or strong competition gets before then.

[jomarr]

8 hours ago, Deemy said:

Lemon is finally going top 40!!! AHHH. Hopefully it goes top 10 in like a month or two. 

!!!!

 

Finally getting the attention it deserves.

[popmusic]

11 minutes ago, ChartsFan said:

If people can predict singles sales based on iTunes positions/updates by using historical models, then the same can be done for albums.

You don't have popbars for albums, do you? Also iTunes sales is about 90-95% total digital track sales, iTunes album sales is less than 40% of total album sales. 

[mdnazn]

10 hours ago, FanOfPop said:

   26 Filthy 146 (-17)

[simmnfierzig]

21 minutes ago, ChartsFan said:

If people can predict singles sales based on iTunes positions/updates by using historical models, then the same can be done for albums.

I really doubt it. We dont even have the popbars that we have for singles. We really only have iTunes position which tell us very close to nothing

 

And physical album sales are still a very big factor too and there we have absolutely nothing

[simmnfierzig]

Just now, ChartsFan said:

It's still all just predictive modelling,

 

ues someone one would need to start and build those models, using svaialble data. That includes using iTunes positions vs actual known sales for the week.  Build up a model and there ya go.  

 

Thats how how it was done in he beginning for singles. Takes time.

 

 

#1 on iTunes can still be 100k or 10k.

Sure I could estimates sales for #100, but that's just super pointless

[Solarie]

Please Havana pull through.

 

[popmusic]

17 minutes ago, ChartsFan said:

It's still all just predictive modelling,

 

ues someone one would need to start and build those models, using svaialble data. That includes using iTunes positions vs actual known sales for the week.  Build up a model and there ya go.  

 

Thats how how it was done in he beginning for singles. Takes time.

Of course, you can build a model but its prediction rate would be like +/- 15 positions. 

[iHype.]

11 minutes ago, ChartsFan said:

There's all kinds of data during the week to help out. While HDD gets there data from iTunes, they do post info with their daily or so charts.  

 

I did say it was harder,

 

i took offense at rhe at the not possible, because it is possible to do,

Literally looking for an argument 

[Michael21]

 

9 hours ago, Deemy said:

Lemon is finally going top 40!!! AHHH. Hopefully it goes top 10 in like a month or two. 

I’d like to see it as another top 10 for Rihanna but it won’t have support from Pop and Spotify numbers are kind of tragic. 

Edited January 20, 2018 by Michael21

[grandewhispers]

Bebe is almost top 15 

 

[Navyofbadgals]

3 hours ago, Michael21 said:

 

I’d like to see it as another top 10 for Rihanna but it won’t have support from Pop and Spotify numbers are kind of tragic. 

eh they're not that bad. There are two versions charting so it's around ~#60 combined and it doesn't have a lot of playlist support

[simmnfierzig]

4 hours ago, ChartsFan said:

There's all kinds of data during the week to help out. While HDD gets there data from iTunes, they do post info with their daily or so charts.  

 

I did say it was harder,

 

i took offense at rhe at the not possible, because it is possible to do,

HDD used to post daily updates for a while but havent in recent months and whats the point of Just copying what HDD posts 

And I dont know what you are talking about with "all kinds of data"

 

Also you are still only talking about iTunes Sales. Which alone are impossible to make accurate predictions from. You ignore complete the 60% of album sales that happen outside of iTunes, which are even harder.

 

3 hours ago, ChartsFan said:

No I was not looking for an argument. A member of the forum asked a question and was given a wrong answer by someone that most people highly trust and therefor would take their answer as correct.

 

the member that asked the question and I'm too lazy to go back and wiser who it was, deserves a correct answer. As does anyone that asks a question here,

No my answer was correct. It is impossible to make BB200 predictions that add any value to what HDD does. Just not enough out there to be anywhere close to accurate enough

[simmnfierzig]

For example HDD has Camilla at #1 with 109k and Showman at #2 with 105k. I have absolutely no way of checking if that is correct. It's possible that Billboard has Showman at #1. And that's with the tracking week already over, but I still have no idea.

 

 

[britsjournals]

nnn I just asked a question I didn’t mean for it to turn into this 

[simmnfierzig]

4 minutes ago, ChartsFan said:

I didn't say copy HDD info, I said use it as one source.  Most albums have some sort of known estimate how they will fair before the tracking week even starts.

 

combines all kinds of such data, along with actual historical data, like previous week results, and over time makes a pretty accurate model.

 

I bet bet with the right model, one could do fairly well without knowing sales at all, using streams and track sales, and then building out sales based on built up patterns of totals.

 

i didn't say YOU could or should do it,  I'm saying it isn't quite as impossible as you state,

 

if if it was so impossible, the  record companies that drop an album would be completely in the darki F there artists were going to sell one or one million copies.  Contracts are signed based on sales estimates.

And I disagree strongly with you

 

Estimates before albums are out are mostly from record labels which also have a lot more data available than we do, but they are still all over the place and quite often super wrong (both too high and too low)

Edited January 20, 2018 by simmnfierzig

[KetysandGagsSon]

If Camila gets blocked at #2.

[Capruni]

Pop girls will won, camila better snatch both number 1’s 

[simmnfierzig]

10 minutes ago, ChartsFan said:

Then you use those over and under estimates and learn patterns.

 

You our seem to just want to focus on each thing I say and attempt to rip it apart.  I've clearly stated each thing I've said, HDD, labels are all just some pieces of the puzzle that need to be all combined together.  The more sources, the more data - then the more accurate.  I'm certainly not going to sit here and list every source. I don't have that much time.

 

just like when you do estimates. You use the data out there. Then you make extrapolations based on what you've seen over time.  And just like when you do precious, sometimes one data point is too high, but another is too low, but it averages out to what you expected,

 

look, the point isn't to get down to an exact copy sold but to be able to build out a top 20 so albums.  20 because that is what most people do for singles.

 

but sure simm says it can't be done, so obviously nobody can possibly do it.

 

I am gone,

 

Bye

Won't miss you

[thedastardly]

Eager to see where Drake debuts. Numbers for God's Plan looking strong already.

[Samson]

what is happening in here

Edited January 20, 2018 by Yndda

[Konril]

nnn;

Not again. 

 

I'll await BB's number.