charts discussion 2017 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (81% IN)

[Ger]

Building Year-End Chart

Week: #42/52 (81%)

 

 

 

Rank	Artist	Song	Total Points
01	Ed Sheeran	Shape of You	16,389 (+259)
02	Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee	Despacito (Remix) (feat. Justin Bieber)	14,520 (+488)
03	Bruno Mars	That’s What I Like	12,846 (+239)
04	The Chainsmokers	Closer (feat. Halsey)	9,094
05	Migos	Bad and Boujee (feat. Lil Uzi Vert)	9,028
06	Kendrick Lamar	HUMBLE.	8,261 (+252)
07	The Chainsmokers & Coldplay	Something Just Like This	7,814 (+180)
08	Bruno Mars	24K Magic	7,694
09	DJ Khaled	I’m the One (feat. Justin Bieber, Quavo, Chance The Rapper & Lil Wayne)	7,646 (+192)
10	Sam Hunt	Body Like A Back Road	7,585 (+225)
11	James Arthur	Say You Won’t Let Go	7,349 (+148)
12	Post Malone	Congratulations (feat. Quavo)	7,308 (+203)
13	Future	Mask Off	7,253 (+141)
14	Zedd & Alessia Cara	Stay	6,805 (+166)
15	The Weeknd	Starboy (feat. Daft Punk)	6,475
16	Imagine Dragons	Believer	6,428 (+310)
17	Rae Sremmurd	Black Beatles (feat. Gucci Mane)	6,307
18	ZAYN & Taylor Swift	I Don’t Wanna Live Forever (Fifty Shades Darker)	6,244
19	Kygo & Selena Gomez	It Ain’t Me	6,122 (+127)
20	Lil Uzi Vert	XO TOUR Llif3	6,031 (+240)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spoiler

Rank	Artist	Song	Total Points
21	KYLE	iSpy (feat. Lil Yachty)	6,006
22	Alessia Cara	Scars to Your Beautiful	5,858
23	Julia Michaels	Issues	5,772
24	Childish Gambino	Redbone	5,580 (+190)
25	Khalid	Location	5,387 (+167)
26	Rihanna	Love On the Brain	5,154
27	Maroon 5	Don’t Wanna Know (feat. Kendrick Lamar)	4,979
28	French Montana	Unforgettable (feat. Swae Lee)	4,964 (+310)
29	The Weeknd	I Feel It Coming (feat. Daft Punk)	4,904
30	Big Sean	Bounce Back	4,812
31	Drake	Fake Love	4,787
32	Ed Sheeran	Castle On the Hill	4,677
33	Machine Gun Kelly & Camila Cabello	Bad Things	4,497
34	Shawn Mendes	There’s Nothing Holdin’ Me Back	4,423 (+309)
35	DJ Khaled	Wild Thoughts (feat. Rihanna & Bryson Tiller)	3,366 (+386)
36	The Chainsmokers	Paris	4,357
37	Ariana Grande	Side to Side (feat. Nicki Minaj)	4,268
38	Clean Bandit	Rockabye (feat. Sean Paula & Anne-Marie)	4,201
39	DJ Snake	Let Me Love You (feat. Justin Bieber)	4,172
40	Charlie Puth	Attention	4,056 (+314)
41	Justin Timberlake	CAN’T STOP THE FEELING!	3,926
42	Migos	T-Shirt	3,902
43	Shawn Mendes	Mercy	3,881
44	Kodak Black	Tunnel Vision	3,798
45	Brett Young	In Case You Didn’t Know	3,577
46	Ayo & Teo	Rolex	3,506
47	twenty one pilots	Heathens	3,466
48	Halsey	Now or Never	3,400
49	Kendrick Lamar	DNA.	3,339 (+94)
50	Niall Horan	Slow Hands	3,286 (+251)
51	Aminé	Caroline	3,252
52	Rae Sremmurd	Swang	3,137
53	Drake	Passionfruit	3,115
54	Travis Scott	goosebumps	3,009
55	Maroon 5	Cold (feat. Future)	2,974
56	Calvin Harris	Slide (feat. Frank Ocean & Migos)	2,792
57	Zay Hilfigerrr & Zayion McCall	Juju On That Beat (TZ Anthem)	2,717
58	D.R.A.M.	Broccoli (feat. Lil Yachty)	2,689
59	Liam Payne	Strip That Down (feat. Quavo)	2,689 (+260)
60	Jon Bellion	All Time Low	2,657
61	Katy Perry	Chained to the Rhythm (feat. Skip Marley)	2,617
62	Luke Combs	Hurricane	2,532
63	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie	Drowning (feat. Kodak Black)	2,478
64	Hailee Steinfeld & Grey	Starving (feat. Zedd)	2,460
65	Jason Derulo	Swalla (feat. Nicki Minaj & Ty Dolla $ign)	2,449
66	Migos	Slippery (feat. Gucci Mane)	2,432
67	Harry Styles	Sign of the Times	2,365
68	ADELE	Water Under the Bridge	2,338
69	Playboi Carti	Magnolia	2,334 (+107)
70	Miley Cyrus	Malibu	2,305
71	Marian Hill	Down	2,292
72	YFN Lucci	Everyday We Lit (feat. PnB Rock)	2,282
73	Gucci Mane	Both (feat. Drake)	2,275
74	Kendrick Lamar	LOYALTY. (FEAT. RIHANNA.)	2,250 (+144)
75	Shawn Mendes	Treat You Better	2,205
76	Keith Urban	The Fighter (feat. Carrie Underwood)	2,180
77	XXXTENTACION	Look At Me!	2,144
78	Cardi B	Bodak Yellow (Money Moves)	2,086 (+407)
79	Kendrick Lamar	LOVE. (FEAT. ZACARI.)	2,055 (+75)
80	Jon Pardi	Dirt On My Boots	2,054
81	Logic	1-800-273-8255 (feat. Alessia Cara & Khalid)	2,001 (+276)
82	Niall Horan	This Town	1,988
83	Lady Gaga	Million Reasons	1,986
84	Thomas Rhett	Craving You (feat. Maren Morris)	1,979
85	J. Cole	Deja Vu	1,888
86	Chris Brown	Party (feat. Usher & Gucci Mane)	1,857
87	Selena Gomez	Bad Liar	1,855
88	Calvin Harris	Feels (feat. Pharrell Williams, Katy Perry & Big Sean)	1,854 (+197)
89	Drake	Portland (feat. Quavo & Travis Scott)	1,829
90	Linkin Park	Heavy (feat. Kiiara)	1,816
91	Little Big Town	Better Man	1,763
92	John Legend	Love Me Now	1,735
93	Dylan Scott	My Girl	1,723 (+71)
94	21 Savage	Bank Account	1,721 (+258)
95	Sia	Cheap Thrills (feat. Sean Paul)	1,721
96	Tee Grizzley	First Day Out	1,706
97	Florida Georgia Line	God, Your Mama, And Me (feat. Backstreet Boys)	1,705
98	Sia	The Greatest (feat. Kendrick Lamar)	1,683
99	Auli’i Cravalho	How Far I’ll Go	1,678
100	The Weeknd	Party Monster	1,605

Info The points are based on accumulated activity during each song's Hot 100 run, translated on the most recent formula (after the adjustment). For more detailed data, feel confident to ask me. 

 

Additional info 2016's Final Predictions

 

Edited September 10, 2017 by Ger-55

[Ger]

Building Year-End Chart

Week: #38/52 (72%)

 

 

Rank	Artist	Song	Points
01	Ed Sheeran	"Shape Of You"	15,304 (+298)
02	Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee	"Despacito (Remix) (feat. Justin Bieber)"	12,274 (+635)
03	Bruno Mars	"That's What I Like	11,678 (+341)
04	The Chainsmokers	"Closer (feat. Halsey)"	9,094
05	Migos	"Bad And Boujee (feat. Lil Uzi Vert)"	9,026
06	Bruno Mars	"24K Magic"	7,694
07	Kendrick Lamar	"HUMBLE."	7,327 (+245)
08	The Chainsmokers & Coldplay	"Something Just Like This"	7,018 (+229)
09   10	James Arthur   DJ Khaled	"Say You Won't Let Go" "I'm The One (feat. Justin Bieber, Quavo, Chance The Rapper & Lil Wayne)"	6,723 (+173)   6,686 (+320)

 

11. Future - "Mask Off" 6,627 (+187)

12. Sam Hunt - "Body Like A Back Road" 6,572 (+285)

13. The Weeknd - "Starboy (feat. Daft Punk)" 6,475

14. Post Malone - "Congratulations (feat. Quavo)" 6,392 (+260)

15. Rae Sremmurd - "Black Beatles (feat. Gucci Mane)" 6,307

16. ZAYN & TAYLOR SWIFT - "I Don't Wanna Live Forever (Fifty Shades Darker)" 6,244

17. Zedd & Alessia Cara - "Stay" 6,060 (+222)

18. KYLE - "iSpy (feat. Lil Yachty) 6,013

19. Alessia Cara - "Scars To Your Beautiful" 5,858

20. Julia Michaela - "Issues" 5,659 (+124)

 

Info The points are based on accumulated activity during each song's Hot 100 run, translated on the most recent formula (after the adjustment), which worked pretty good last year. If you have any song to request just ask me. I'm working to be bring the whole Top 100 to date.

 

(I'll keep updating weekly...)

 

Last Year's Predictions

Edited September 6, 2017 by Ger-55

[musicman101]

Absolute MESS at Closer being #4

 

There really needs to be more movement and more to pick from in the mainstream...... The radio always overplays songs but I've noticed that it's gotten significantly worse this year in comparison to a couple years prior

[Tutankhamun]

nnnnnnnnnnnnnn @ Closer being the 4th biggest song in 2017. Burn it with fire Jesus  

[Nikko]

09 James Arthur - Say You Won't Let Go

 

Never heard of that.

[lex]

Not Closer at 4  

 

also slay a bit Bruno

[luckythisway]

what DJ Khaled song is #10? I'm the One? 

Edited August 13, 2017 by luckythisway

[umich]

Oh wow. So Closer will (most likely) be the first song to place in the top ten YE twice since Candle In The Wind (#1 in 1997, #8 in 1998)? 

 

Also, not surprised to see B&B above BB. The latter's longevity was terrible after it left number one.

[Tsuko]

39 minutes ago, umich said:

Also, not surprised to see B&B above BB. The latter's longevity was terrible after it left number one.

What surprises me the most is that Bad And Boujee is lower than Closer.

 

And amazing that Body Like a Back Road will likely be in the year-end top 10. If this was with the old sales/airplay formula it would probably be top 5 on the year-end chart.

[Green]

1 hour ago, umich said:

Oh wow. So Closer will (most likely) be the first song to place in the top ten YE twice since Candle In The Wind (#1 in 1997, #8 in 1998)? 

 

Also, not surprised to see B&B above BB. The latter's longevity was terrible after it left number one.

 

Also "How Do I Live" which was #9 in 1997 and #5 in 1998.

Edited August 13, 2017 by Green

[mylicious]

WHERE ARE THE GIRLS WTF

[Green]

In a couple of weeks Julia Michaels will have the biggest female solo song of the year  

 

Also Halsey is the only female in the top 15 and she's just a feature   

This year won't have any females (as lead) in the top 10 for sure. When was the last time that happened?

Edited August 13, 2017 by Green

[TheWayWeWere]

Issues in top 20

 

[Green]

32 minutes ago, mylicious said:

WHERE ARE THE GIRLS WTF

19. Alessia Cara - "Scars To Your Beautiful" 5,858

20. Julia Michaela - "Issues" 5,659 (+124)

 

 

 

The others are features (Hasey) or co-leads with a man (Taylor, Alessia).

Edited August 13, 2017 by Green

[mylicious]

I hope this means that female domination will take over in the next year.

[Ger]

5 hours ago, luckythisway said:

what DJ Khaled song is #10? I'm the One? 

Yep, "Whild Thoughts" is still fresh, nearing the Top 50.

 

3 hours ago, Tsuko said:

What surprises me the most is that Bad And Boujee is lower than Closer.

 

And amazing that Body Like a Back Road will likely be in the year-end top 10. If this was with the old sales/airplay formula it would probably be top 5 on the year-end chart.

Absolutely, nevertheless its streaming isn't negligible.

 

2 hours ago, Green said:

In a couple of weeks Julia Michaels will have the biggest female solo song of the year  

 

Also Halsey is the only female in the top 15 and she's just a feature   

This year won't have any females (as lead) in the top 10 for sure. When was the last time that happened?

It would be the first time since 1976, the highest lead female song that year was "Fly, Robin, Fly" by Silver Convention (a girl group) (If that doesn't count for you, then the highest was Diana Ross at #15 that year with "Love Hangover").

 

2 hours ago, TheWayWeWere said:

Issues in top 20

 

She totally deserved her spot inside Top 10 

[DELE2125]

Why is "Closer" still top 5?

[Ash12345]

2 hours ago, Green said:

In a couple of weeks Julia Michaels will have the biggest female solo song of the year  

 

Also Halsey is the only female in the top 15 and she's just a feature   

This year won't have any females (as lead) in the top 10 for sure. When was the last time that happened?

apparently in the 70s at the earliest  

[DELE2125]

2 hours ago, Green said:

In a couple of weeks Julia Michaels will have the biggest female solo song of the year  

 

Also Halsey is the only female in the top 15 and she's just a feature   

This year won't have any females (as lead) in the top 10 for sure. When was the last time that happened?

Taylor's lead will be top 10 for sure, or at least top 15.

[Safe&Sound]

Closer in Top 5

 

 

Zayn and Taylor in Top 20

Hopefully they are not knocked out with new releases

[Letters From Adi]

lol if James peaks higher on the YE chart

[Michael21]

Wild thoughts could be in top 20 if it has longevity. 

Despacito and Shape Of You 

[Konril]

Any chance Despacito can snatch that #1 from Ed? 

[Ger]

2 hours ago, DELE2125 said:

Why is "Closer" still top 5?

Because it's one of best classics I've ever heard, it's amazing.

 

55 minutes ago, Arcane_Sky said:

Any chance Despacito can snatch that #1 from Ed? 

I'm kinda wishing that (and I was it was closer while I was doing this), but SOY decreases slowly, mostly because of the insane airplay longevity.

[luckythisway]

2 hours ago, DELE2125 said:

Taylor's lead will be top 10 for sure, or at least top 15.

I would say top 15 is for sure not top 10. I think SIO was #13 on the 2014 year end.