charts discussion Final predictions (11/23): A Bar Song #1, Die with a Smile #2 (4pts difference)

[Malkuth]

I think the only reason Billboard are saying that about That's So True is because it's the only song flying up the chart atm. Everything else is just staying stable. They need something to write about. And if it keeps up these gains it will overtake A Bar Song in a few weeks but that's not guaranteed of course.

[pride4jc1222]

Gracie is coming: 

One error: GLB and Too Sweet are holding steady at #11 and #12, respectively, rather than flipping spots.

[fridayteenage]

that margin would indicate Bruno could take over the following week...

 

but maybe shaboozey releases a CMA Awards version of his song after performing to get extra points

Edited November 15 by fridayteenage

[Sweetestsecret]

APT only one week in the top 10. I thought Bruno had the power to score top 10 hits with longevity like die with a smile!

[fridayteenage]

3 week global #1 apt

[Green]

This was CMAs effect for some of the performers on the Hot 100 last year: (even with just one day of sales - Thursday)

 

9. Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me  (+8)

10. Morgan Wallen - Last Night  (+5)

15. Jelly Roll - Need A Favor (+18)

22. Jelly Roll With Lainey Wilson - Save Me  (+24)

29. Chris Stapleton - White Horse  (+25)

 

---------------------

 

So A Bar Song will stay at #1 that week too

 

 

 

[NewStanner]

14 minutes ago, Green said:

This was CMAs effect for some of the performers on the Hot 100 last year: (even with just one day of sales - Thursday)

 

9. Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me  (+8)

10. Morgan Wallen - Last Night  (+5)

15. Jelly Roll - Need A Favor (+18)

22. Jelly Roll With Lainey Wilson - Save Me  (+24)

29. Chris Stapleton - White Horse  (+25)

 

---------------------

 

So A Bar Song will stay at #1 that week too

 

 

 

Just checked the TOTC from that week and the previous one, and it seems like these songs (besides LN which actually fell in points) gained around 0.5-1m streams and 1-3k sales. Which could even equal up to 10 additional chart points.

[UnusualBoy]

Quote

That's So True #5

Dark times we live in

[pride4jc1222]

1 hour ago, Green said:

This was CMAs effect for some of the performers on the Hot 100 last year: (even with just one day of sales - Thursday)

 

9. Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me  (+8)

10. Morgan Wallen - Last Night  (+5)

15. Jelly Roll - Need A Favor (+18)

22. Jelly Roll With Lainey Wilson - Save Me  (+24)

29. Chris Stapleton - White Horse  (+25)

 

---------------------

 

So A Bar Song will stay at #1 that week too

 

 

 

The big difference is that last year's CMA was held on Nov 8, two weeks earlier than this year. Those songs last year didn't really have to worry about the holiday songs, and I can see the boosts being muted a bit this year due to the closer proximity to the holiday season.

 

That said, ABS doesn't need that much of a boost to remain #1. (And the following week, ABS will be bookended with Day 2 of the CMA + Thanksgiving day performance at the Lions game.) I think 20 is locked.

[Popboi.]

2 hours ago, Sweetestsecret said:

APT only one week in the top 10. I thought Bruno had the power to score top 10 hits with longevity like die with a smile!

APT is literally showing signs of returning to the top 10 in a week or two 

[Letters From Adi]

Imagine if Gracie dethrones ABS before it reaches 19 weeks 

[Mariah4life]

**** you ABS

**** you

[Kylizzle]

Gracie can join Olivia, Sabrina, and Billie as Gen Z queens with #1 singles. 3/4 of them were attached to Taylor at some point. 

 

[B-Luke]

[Eternium]

On 11/15/2024 at 7:30 AM, Sweetestsecret said:

APT only one week in the top 10. I thought Bruno had the power to score top 10 hits with longevity like die with a smile!

Do you really want to compare APT to Gaga's singles? It's a huge global smash and it will start taking off in January/February.

21 hours ago, Mariah4life said:

**** you ABS

**** you

Who cares anymore? AIWFCIY is about to become the best-charting song of all-time in less than a month and then it will take the record most weeks at #1 on the Hot in 2026 and hold it forever  Mariah is winning no matter what.

[Roberto]

Gaga and Bruno are so damn close. Interscope, do ******* something.

[pride4jc1222]

Final prediction: https://x.com/talkofthecharts/status/1857979948939514304

 

Last Christmas predicted to re-enter at #36.

Edited November 17 by pride4jc1222

[jdanton2]

1 hour ago, pride4jc1222 said:

Final prediction: https://x.com/talkofthecharts/status/1857979948939514304

 

Last Christmas predicted to re-enter at #36.

Mariah ,Brenda and Bobby  missing the chart because they have charted over 52 weeks.

[Ger]

4 pts difference?

[fridayteenage]

Gracie number one streaming

Would be the second female streaming topper this year not to top the hot 100 after taste ( as of yet)

Edited November 17 by fridayteenage

[Green]

Only 4 points?  

She should have shipped the vinyls this week instead

 

US Monsters where are you? This could have been Gaga's 6th #1.

[MusicLoverDude]

18 hours ago, jdanton2 said:

Mariah ,Brenda and Bobby  missing the chart because they have charted over 52 weeks.

Good. I'm tired of the Xmas onslaught each December. The less of them, the better.

[jdanton2]

12 minutes ago, MusicLoverDude said:

Good. I'm tired of the Xmas onslaught each December. The less of them, the better.

they will still chart once they reach the top 25 . Mariah is predicted to be #10 the following week and the others could chart as well if they have enough points to reach the top 25.

[BellKat]

On 11/15/2024 at 8:30 AM, Sweetestsecret said:

APT only one week in the top 10. I thought Bruno had the power to score top 10 hits with longevity like die with a smile!

He can't do miracles if the other part of the collab is a dead weight 

[nky0411]

9 minutes ago, BellKat said:

He can't do miracles if the other part of the collab is a dead weight 

For a song that keep repeating APT. in foreign language/pronunciation, the song is already doing wonder.

 

Crossover song is meant to be like that. They might not smash on the go, but the value both collab artists get is immense. Both reaching new audience base as signified by their monthly listener counts