charts discussion Final Predicts: Brenda to block Mariah from #1 (2 pts diff), tighter than Biden/Trump

[suburbannature]

3 minutes ago, FolkLover1989 said:

I told about popular Christmas songs

Specially the one that go Top 10 every year.

 

What makes you think if they start promoting,  they won't rise? 

If Ariana tries she herself could improve her position on chart every year by lot. 

The song was always a frontrunner - recurrent songs weren't able to chart again on the Hot 100 until 2012. 

 

Every December from 2005 to 2008, the song topped the Billboard Hot 100 Re-currents chart. The song even topped the Digital Chart and Radio and 2005 and had points for at least top 3, but was ineligible to chart. 

 

In 2017, it had already spent 78 weeks on the UK chart. In Japan, the music industry's largest non-US market, it was already one of the best-selling songs by a non-Japanese act with over a million units by the mid 90s, peaked at #2 in 1994, and even re-charted at #6 the main chart in 2010. 

 

Again, to say it was due to promo is disingenuous. 

 

---

 

@stevyy, anything to add?

[BnPac]

1 hour ago, suburbannature said:

 

It wasn’t about the promoting - it was about the adjustment of playlists. Brenda has always been close thanks to the Christmas Classics playlist. This year Pandora’s exclusion of Mariah and Brenda being #1 and #2 on the playlist with 72 million listeners tipped it. 

 

Mariah’s song spent 15 years organically rising to its throne before she ever did much with it outside of a random tour performance. To imply that the song’s status was because of promoting is disingenuous. 

I never said it was only thanks to promotion. Many Xmas have been rising organically for years too though : Last Christmas, Ariana’s and Brenda’s in particular but Mariah is the only one who has been proactively promoting hers and it has been a non stop effort for a couple of years. So of course the new generation is more familiar with it. My point was that in a tight race and in the heat of Xmas, Mariah’s song will win because the familiarity is bigger. 

[suburbannature]

1 minute ago, BnPac said:

I never said it was only thanks to promotion. Many Xmas have been rising organically for years too though : Last Christmas, Ariana’s and Brenda’s in particular but Mariah is the only one who has been proactively promoting hers and it has been a non stop effort for a couple of years. So of course the new generation is more familiar with it. My point was that in a tight race and in the heat of Xmas, Mariah’s song will win because the familiarity is bigger. 

And yet it was winning 20 years ago before she even acknowledged it.

 

1 hour ago, suburbannature said:

The song was always a frontrunner - recurrent songs weren't able to chart again on the Hot 100 until 2012. 

 

Every December from 2005 to 2008, the song topped the Billboard Hot 100 Re-currents chart. The song even topped the Digital Chart and Radio and 2005 and had points for at least top 3, but was ineligible to chart. 

 

In 2017, it had already spent 78 weeks on the UK chart. In Japan, the music industry's largest non-US market, it was already one of the best-selling songs by a non-Japanese act with over a million units by the mid 90s, peaked at #2 in 1994, and even re-charted at #6 the main chart in 2010. 

 

Again, to say it was due to promo is disingenuous. 

 

---

 

@stevyy, anything to add?

 

[BnPac]

2 minutes ago, suburbannature said:

And yet it was winning 20 years ago before she even acknowledged it.

 

 

Tbh I don’t get your point and I don’t see how anything you said contradicts what I said. 

Did I imply or say that the song was unknown before she started performing it? 
 

[suburbannature]

7 minutes ago, BnPac said:

Tbh I don’t get your point and I don’t see how anything you said contradicts what I said. 

Did I imply or say that the song was unknown before she started performing it? 
 

 the struggle.

 

she was going #1 on recurrent every year 20 years ago (they weren't eligible for Hot 100 then) long before she ever embraced the song.

[BnPac]

2 hours ago, suburbannature said:

 the struggle.

 

she was going #1 on recurrent every year 20 years ago (they weren't eligible for Hot 100 then) long before she ever embraced the song.

Yes, I know that and? 
I also lived the resurgence of the song and it becoming more known in Europe after Love Actually in 2003. Again, what’s your point and how does that go against my aforementioned points in the first post you quoted ? : 

 

- Brenda coming close proves that if other artists or their estates  promote their songs as much as Mariah, they can have a chance (Wham!, Bublé (although his album is a smash but he could focus on one song), Ariana, Brenda). 
 

- As of now, Mariah has promoted her song way more so in a tight race and in the heart of Xmas ( around 24th), I don’t see her losing. 
 

 

Edited December 3, 2023 by BnPac

[Green]

6 hours ago, brianc33710 said:

Carey & Lee are still with us. Bobby Helms, George Michael & Burl Ives have all passed away. I don't know if Andrew Ridgeley has enough interest in trying to get Last Christmas to #1 in the US to do the needed promo. To this point the other songs are too far behind to challenge for #1.

 

Maybe the surviving member of Wham will push Last Christmas next year for the 40th anniversary

 

The problem with the new mordern classics (Santa tell me, Underneath the tree) is that the oldest classics always get massive streams. I can't see Ariana or Kelly's songs getting higher streams than Mariah, Brenda, Last Christmas, Jingle Bell Rock, etc...

 

It worked for Brenda because she has been getting closer to Mariah each year, so she just needed a push

[suburbannature]

6 minutes ago, BnPac said:

Yes, I know that and? 
I also lived the resurgence of the song and it becoming more known in Europe after Love Actually in 2003. Again, what’s your point and how does that go against my aforementioned points in the first post you quoted ? : 

 

- Brenda coming close proves that if other artists or their estates  promote their songs as much as Mariah, they can have a chance (Wham!, Bubble (although his album is a smash but he could focus on one song), Ariana, Brenda). 
 

- As of now, Mariah has promoted her song way more so in a tight race and in the heart of Xmas ( around 24th), I don’t see her losing. 
 

 

The way you just ignored the entire history that negates what you’re saying. Laughable 

[BnPac]

1 hour ago, suburbannature said:

Laughable

I couldn’t agree more. 

[genetic fail]

Grandmother grandmothering we love to see it

Still hoping Mariah eventually snatches back her most weeks at #1 record

[Green]

30 minutes ago, genetic fail said:

Still hoping Mariah eventually snatches back her most weeks at #1 record

 

She will obviously get her record. I mean by the end of the decade it will have over 30 weeks at #1 at least   That's why I don't get some lambs are so bothered by Brenda snatching the #1 this season

[Touchdown]

4 hours ago, Green said:

 

She will obviously get her record. I mean by the end of the decade it will have over 30 weeks at #1 at least   That's why I don't get some lambs are so bothered by Brenda snatching the #1 this season

We're not bothered by Brenda at all, we're just a little curious at the glee at which the other stan bases are displaying at the thought of taking a #1 week away from Mariah. 

[Maroonx]

On 12/1/2023 at 7:44 PM, Touchdown said:

Glad Mariah will be #1 despite Spotify trying to sabotage her. The cream always rises to the top.

Wait, how so, she's literally #1 on the Global Spotify, and every time I play an xmas playlist her song is usually 3-4th song that comes into play.

 

anyway congrats to both of their xmas success x

[fridayteenage]

On 11/25/2023 at 3:13 PM, Almighty Gaga said:

Year after year, the UK charts prove that they hit the jackpot with the ACR rule. 

 

On 11/25/2023 at 3:45 PM, Almighty Gaga said:

On xmas week yes, which is understandable. But not the last week of November (last year they only had 2 in the top 10 and 5 in the top 20)

now on the first week of december, uk is predicted to have 15 out of the top 18 songs be christmas.

 

uk looks more christmas obsessed. they just don't have thanksgiving because...why would they

[pride4jc1222]

Final Canada predictions: 

 

[Green]

2 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

Final Canada predictions: 

 

 

Jack snatching the Canadian #1 before Christmas takes over 

[QueenofCopyPaste]

https://twitter.com/MariahCarey/status/1731388860595077334

 

 

 

Hmmmmm.....

[Geraldine]

6 minutes ago, QueenofCopyPaste said:

https://twitter.com/MariahCarey/status/1731388860595077334

 

 

 

Hmmmmm.....

what a nicki move

[QueenofCopyPaste]

Something deep inside me makes me thing Mariah will tweet something shady later

 

 

I hope not

[GoodGuyGoneGhetto]

21 minutes ago, QueenofCopyPaste said:

https://twitter.com/MariahCarey/status/1731388860595077334

 

 

 

Hmmmmm.....

Like Rihanna, she needs to worry about releasing new material as opposed to persistently focusing on this damn jingle and a 70+ year old woman who’ll snatch the top spot this week. 

 

Like, move TF on. 
 

 

I need Caution pt. II please.

[LastGreatBloodline]

some of y'all are beyond pathetic 

AIWFCIY is predicted to be #2 after already being #1 for 12 weeks, still topping global spotify (like she doesnt every years with record breaking numbers), while being one of the best selling songs of all time and has been a modern xmas staple for decades. But the jobless losers here will use a #2 peak as an argument to discredit the song's success and Mariah's career as a whole. Make it make sense. 

[Mitsouko]

I'm laughing because I know she's pressed

 

[Mr. Duff]

Imagine if Mariah gets blocked all throughout Christmas

[superben]

Rooting for Brenda  

Nothing against Mariah, but AIWFCIY is so overplayed that I detest it so much now.

[spree]

7 minutes ago, superben said:

Rooting for Brenda  

Nothing against Mariah, but AIWFCIY is so overplayed that I detest it so much now.

its the Macarena of Xmas music.