charts discussion Hot 100 11/25/2023 predictions:Jack Harlow vs Taylor Swift. 3 point difference

[IBeMe]

Jack is going to snatch it by a hair unfortunately :/ 

[Geraldine]

1 hour ago, Steve Johnson said:

We need Cruel Summer (Winter’s version) rn. 

we need miss americana to smash now

[Raspberries]

 

[Ms. Togekiss]

18 minutes ago, Raspberries said:

 

Lettuce pray

[Badgalbriel]

I can't believe how huge this song turned out to be 

[Redstreak]

2 minutes ago, Badgalbriel said:

I can't believe how huge this song turned out to be 

I did, this was always THE song that got away. It’s amazing to see the way it’s climbed so organically 

[Itsaliability]

13 minutes ago, Redstreak said:

I did, this was always THE song that got away. It’s amazing to see the way it’s climbed so organically 

Can you please tell me what the spirits are telling you about thee IVY

[pride4jc1222]

If Cruel Summer gets the #1 over Lovin on Me, then the Hot 100 formula is officially broken. It will show that radio still has way too much influence on the Hot 100, instead of reflecting what the people are consuming. LoM is clearly the most consumed song in the US this week, as seen on Spotify, iTunes, AM, TikTok, etc.

[Maroonx]

I think she is staying at #1, I don't think Jack will have more points than her. This will however be its 4th and final week at #1 sadly.

[Redstreak]

17 minutes ago, Itsaliability said:

Can you please tell me what the spirits are telling you about thee IVY

That she’s got no hope, Coney Island coming 2026 though!

[Itsaliability]

9 minutes ago, Redstreak said:

That she’s got no hope, Coney Island coming 2026 though!

We crode, then we laughed !

Coney Island serves royalty, even tho not at the same levels of thee IVY but still.

[Sweetestsecret]

 

[KarmaCat]

28 minutes ago, Sweetestsecret said:

 

Come through Cruel Summer and IION!

[Itsaliability]

3 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

If Cruel Summer gets the #1 over Lovin on Me, then the Hot 100 formula is officially broken. It will show that radio still has way too much influence on the Hot 100, instead of reflecting what the people are consuming. LoM is clearly the most consumed song in the US this week, as seen on Spotify, iTunes, AM, TikTok, etc.

Not you acting like Cruel Summer is barely hanging on at the bottom of Spotify and AM charts

[NEX]

3 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

If Cruel Summer gets the #1 over Lovin on Me, then the Hot 100 formula is officially broken. It will show that radio still has way too much influence on the Hot 100, instead of reflecting what the people are consuming. LoM is clearly the most consumed song in the US this week, as seen on Spotify, iTunes, AM, TikTok, etc.

Millions of people still listen to radio regularly. It may be a more passive consumption method that they don't have direct control over (other than changing a station), but it's still a consumption method. Fraudulent sales is a much bigger issue affecting the Hot 100. Literally every illegitimate #1 of this decade has been achieved through unfairly inflated digital sales that provide heavy chart points. 

[pride4jc1222]

28 minutes ago, Itsaliability said:

Not you acting like Cruel Summer is barely hanging on at the bottom of Spotify and AM charts

I never said anything about it barely hanging on at the bottom of Spotify and AM charts. In fact, Cruel Summer’s first 2 weeks at #1 were legitimate because it was the leading song in streams and sales during those weeks. However, these past 2 weeks, CS has less total streams than Last Night, which left the Hot 100 summit 3 months ago. CS feels like the 5th-7th biggest song this week, not #1 (which is obviously Jack’s song).

[Steve Johnson]

26 minutes ago, pride4jc1222 said:

I never said anything about it barely hanging on at the bottom of Spotify and AM charts. In fact, Cruel Summer’s first 2 weeks at #1 were legitimate because it was the leading song in streams and sales during those weeks. However, these past 2 weeks, CS has less total streams than Last Night, which left the Hot 100 summit 3 months ago. CS feels like the 5th-7th biggest song this week, not #1 (which is obviously Jack’s song).

Radio is still a part of the hot 100 formula. If you are going by consumption metric, streaming chart is there for you. 

[pride4jc1222]

38 minutes ago, =NEX= said:

Millions of people still listen to radio regularly. It may be a more passive consumption method that they don't have direct control over (other than changing a station), but it's still a consumption method. Fraudulent sales is a much bigger issue affecting the Hot 100. Literally every illegitimate #1 of this decade has been achieved through unfairly inflated digital sales that provide heavy chart points. 

Billboard should have addressed the fraudulent sales issue in early 2020 (after HITR and Heartless reached #1 on the Hot 100), instead of getting rid of TikTok from the Hot 100.

 

I think radio should still count for something on the charts, but TikTok deserves some weight on the charts, as it represents a more active form of consumption and better represents what’s actually popular.

[PoisonPill]

Next week is the final week before the Mariah residency, right?

[pride4jc1222]

13 minutes ago, PoisonPill said:

Next week is the final week before the Mariah residency, right?

Yeah, but it looks like Drake has got that one in the bag.

[Maroonx]

In a perfect world recurrent/old Xmas song would only chart in the Holiday charts and not the BB100. I hate how messy the Hot 100 looks in December with all the xmas songs flood.

 

I agree with @pride4jc1222... Radio wise, I do think they should fix their formula so more weight goes into Sales/Streams over radio.

[By the Water]

Billboard already reduced radio's weight in the formula. They're not going to keep changing it everytime a song you don't like is #1. IION? is #1 on US spotify this week (and was #1 last week) but it couldn't compete with the likes of CS and PTTR because that's just how things work. Radio prevents too many songs from debuting at #1 and lessens the impact of album bombs, which people complain about all the time so I don't know what you want Billboard to do atp

[Kodak Energy]

6 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

If Cruel Summer gets the #1 over Lovin on Me, then the Hot 100 formula is officially broken. It will show that radio still has way too much influence on the Hot 100, instead of reflecting what the people are consuming. LoM is clearly the most consumed song in the US this week, as seen on Spotify, iTunes, AM, TikTok, etc.

Not really

New songs have always had to get substantially more streams or sales to go #1 because they lack airplay.

Even for Taylor, songs like Cardigan did double LoM’s streams first week to go #1.

Or IKYWT getting more streams from YT and 100k more sales but getting blocked because of radio. 
 

The H100 is as accurate or inaccurate as it’s always been. 

[Sergi91]

I hope Jack gets it 

[littlebodybigheart]

8 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

If Cruel Summer gets the #1 over Lovin on Me, then the Hot 100 formula is officially broken. It will show that radio still has way too much influence on the Hot 100, instead of reflecting what the people are consuming. LoM is clearly the most consumed song in the US this week, as seen on Spotify, iTunes, AM, TikTok, etc.

hmmm…not quite. jack’s song just isn’t strong enough to compensate for the radio gap.

 

is it over now? had no problem dethroning cruel summer, just as drake’s single probably won’t have a hard time dethroning it either despite lack of radio. some songs are just strong enough to make up for the gap and some aren’t  with stronger streaming, this song could’ve easily went #1. it’s not like the points are high anyway.