charts discussion Hot 100 predictions 11/11/2023:Taylor 'Is It Over Now?' challenge for #1 on hot 100

[KarmaCat]

3 hours ago, Rico Shameless v2 said:

They do. “Bad” chart run from the top was 1-1-5-11-24-37, etc. for example. Way You Make Me Feel was #1 for a week and was out of the Top 50 a month later. Same for Dirty Diana. People just like to say whatever lol.

 

Back then it was easier to manipulate as well. Drake’s #1s being powered mostly by intentional streams and falling is perfectly normal given how Pop radio controls the T10.

Oh wow this is some crazy details to add context in MJ’s supposed dominances. Never knew about this!

[littlebodybigheart]

1 hour ago, Green said:

 

That's not Bad's entire chart run in the top 10 though

 

Either way those were different times. You can't compare chart runs of the 80's in the physical era with the streaming era.

Based on the Billboard all time charts MJ's weakest #1 (You are not alone) is bigger than at least 6 Drake #1's  

 

"You are not alone" ranks higher on the Billboard all time list than Jimmy Cooks, What's Next, Toosie Slide, Way 2 Sexy and his last 2 quick #1's (which probably will have a chart run worse than all those songs)

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ycSIqRrI1lMiVtPQQM85G2P63hayLgHhZuICTv9f0Ls/edit#gid=0

 

That doesn't mean Drake doesn't have huge hits though. He has top 10 hits that are bigger than his last quick #1's

and i agree with you. but the person i was replying to was saying that we need to qualify “hits” by weeks on chart and weeks in the top 10 to reflect a song’s popularity. in which case drake would still have the advantage because of streaming 

 

i also think billboard as a weekly chart needs to reflect what’s popular during the week. if a particular song is the biggest song during a certain week and hits #1 and then falls off the chart completely, that still doesn’t invalidate that the song was hot for that given week 

[Rico Shameless v2]

3 hours ago, Green said:

 

That's not Bad's entire chart run in the top 10 though

 

Either way those were different times. You can't compare chart runs of the 80's in the physical era with the streaming era.

Based on the Billboard all time charts MJ's weakest #1 (You are not alone) is bigger than at least 6 Drake #1's  

 

"You are not alone" ranks higher on the Billboard all time list than Jimmy Cooks, What's Next, Toosie Slide, Way 2 Sexy and his last 2 quick #1's (which probably will have a chart run worse than all those songs)

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ycSIqRrI1lMiVtPQQM85G2P63hayLgHhZuICTv9f0Ls/edit#gid=0

 

That doesn't mean Drake doesn't have huge hits though. He has top 10 hits that are bigger than his last quick #1's

The entire Top 10 run is 8-4-1-1-5-11... You said he doesn't have any #1s that have those type of falls and there are plenty. And you can't compare eras, true. But then you would need to highlight the disadvantage of streaming hits today and not demean their trajectories against airplay-fueled hits.

 

And how is the GOAT list compiled?

Black or White -- 35-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-4-9-15-20-29-35-52-61-71-75-83-OUT (20 weeks, #1 7 weeks, 10 weeks t10) #1258

Man in the Mirror -- 48-36-27-17-9-7-4-1-1-2-4-11-19-31-52-71-97-OUT (17 weeks, #1 2 weeks, 7 weeks t10) #649

 

With a better chart run I'm confused how Black or White is 600 positions lower than MITM.

 

Also Way 2 Sexy and You Are Not Alone have almost literal identical chart runs and there's a huge difference on that list too..

[Green]

48 minutes ago, Rico Shameless v2 said:

The entire Top 10 run is 8-4-1-1-5-11... You said he doesn't have any #1s that have those type of falls and there are plenty. And you can't compare eras, true. But then you would need to highlight the disadvantage of streaming hits today and not demean their trajectories against airplay-fueled hits.

 

And how is the GOAT list compiled?

Black or White -- 35-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-4-9-15-20-29-35-52-61-71-75-83-OUT (20 weeks, #1 7 weeks, 10 weeks t10) #1258

Man in the Mirror -- 48-36-27-17-9-7-4-1-1-2-4-11-19-31-52-71-97-OUT (17 weeks, #1 2 weeks, 7 weeks t10) #649

 

With a better chart run I'm confused how Black or White is 600 positions lower than MITM.

 

Also Way 2 Sexy and You Are Not Alone have almost literal identical chart runs and there's a huge difference on that list too..

 

Songs are ranked based on an inverse point system, with weeks at No. 1 earning the greatest value and weeks at lower spots earning the least. Due to changes in chart methodology over the years, eras are weighted differently to account for chart turnover rates during various periods. 

 

https://www.billboard.com/lists/michael-jackson-top-songs-billboard-hot-100/human-nature-michael-jackson/

 

 

Black or White charted in the Soundscan era so songs started to get longer chart runs since the end of 1991

 

 

Also "You are not alone" and "Way 2 Sexy" belong to different eras. A 1995 chart run doesn't have the same weight of a 2021 song

 

[AdrianNicki]

I miss the time when huge songs topped the charts. Song that were everywhere and everybody knew them. Now there are bunch of #1 songs that I've never heard in my life.

[Michael196]

1 hour ago, AdrianNicki said:

I miss the time when huge songs topped the charts. Song that were everywhere and everybody knew them. Now there are bunch of #1 songs that I've never heard in my life.

[PoisonPill]

1 hour ago, AdrianNicki said:

I miss the time when huge songs topped the charts. Song that were everywhere and everybody knew them. Now there are bunch of #1 songs that I've never heard in my life.

I like the charts being more fan and streaming driven but I agree. #1 songs from the monoculture era of radio dominance felt so much “bigger.” The only recent one that felt like that is Flowers and maybe Anti Hero.

[Raphy23]

23 hours ago, skizzo said:

I dont get that feeling at all. IION is my #2 vault, and I really dont care for Bejeweled or Question so... if anything its like Out Of The Woods meets Dear Reader.

 

Bejeweled is more similar to Now That We Dont Talk.

This. IION is perfect, Bej/Ques are kinda icky/cringy. 

[Maroonx]

2 hours ago, Michael196 said:

LOL I wonder if anyone knows/remembers "Trollz" 

[AdrianNicki]

12 minutes ago, Maroonx said:

LOL I wonder if anyone knows/remembers "Trollz" 

LOL of course not. My point still stands. Just because I have Nicki on my avi doesn't mean she's excluded from this conversation.

[LastGreatBloodline]

20 hours ago, Rico Shameless v2 said:

And how is the GOAT list compiled?

Black or White -- 35-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-4-9-15-20-29-35-52-61-71-75-83-OUT (20 weeks, #1 7 weeks, 10 weeks t10) #1258

Man in the Mirror -- 48-36-27-17-9-7-4-1-1-2-4-11-19-31-52-71-97-OUT (17 weeks, #1 2 weeks, 7 weeks t10) #649

 

post Soundscan vs pre Soundscan 

in 1991 billboard started using Soundscan/Nielsen (now Luminate) to provide their data, which made the average song last longer on the charts, hence songs from that era needing more weeks to chart higher on the all time chart. In the 80s the charts relied on individual stores reporting, which made label manipulation very easy and most songs dropped very quickly after peaking because they would stop selling the single CDs.

[Rico Shameless v2]

20 hours ago, Green said:

 

Songs are ranked based on an inverse point system, with weeks at No. 1 earning the greatest value and weeks at lower spots earning the least. Due to changes in chart methodology over the years, eras are weighted differently to account for chart turnover rates during various periods. 

 

https://www.billboard.com/lists/michael-jackson-top-songs-billboard-hot-100/human-nature-michael-jackson/

 

 

Black or White charted in the Soundscan era so songs started to get longer chart runs since the end of 1991

 

 

Also "You are not alone" and "Way 2 Sexy" belong to different eras. A 1995 chart run doesn't have the same weight of a 2021 song

 

 

54 minutes ago, LastGreatBloodline said:

post Soundscan vs pre Soundscan 

in 1991 billboard started using Soundscan/Nielsen (now Luminate) to provide their data, which made the average song last longer on the charts, hence songs from that era needing more weeks to chart higher on the all time chart. In the 80s the charts relied on individual stores reporting, which made label manipulation very easy and most songs dropped very quickly after peaking because they would stop selling the single CDs.

Ah ok I see, thank you.

[PurrKaty]

10 hours ago, AdrianNicki said:

I miss the time when huge songs topped the charts. Song that were everywhere and everybody knew them. Now there are bunch of #1 songs that I've never heard in my life.

Are you not up for change as technology and social media continues to grow? Before it was just what record labels pushed went #1, then entered what people want to hear in masses with record labels, now it’s what record labels push and what masses want to hear and artists with huge fanbases. I’m sure in a few years people will find something new to complain about.  
 

Edit: also I left out that with social media old songs are gaining resurgence like Running Up That Hill, Die For You, Cruel Summer, etc…

Edited November 3, 2023 by PurrKaty

[Enrique523]

11 hours ago, AdrianNicki said:

I miss the time when huge songs topped the charts. Song that were everywhere and everybody knew them. Now there are bunch of #1 songs that I've never heard in my life.

Not you saying that with ICE SPICE in your avi 

[AdrianNicki]

15 minutes ago, Enrique523 said:

Not you saying that with ICE SPICE in your avi 

And since when Ice Spice has #1 song on Billboard?

[pride4jc1222]

Canada predictions: 

 

[PoisonPill]

12 hours ago, AdrianNicki said:

LOL of course not. My point still stands. Just because I have Nicki on my avi doesn't mean she's excluded from this conversation.

But didn’t they tell you… on ATRL if you have an artist in your avi it means you endorse everything they’ve ever done and are expected to defend them in any situation

[AdrianNicki]

3 hours ago, PoisonPill said:

But didn’t they tell you… on ATRL if you have an artist in your avi it means you endorse everything they’ve ever done and are expected to defend them in any situation

It's hilarious that people think this way. Just because you like someone's music, doesn't mean you have to kiss their ass and defend them 24/7.

 

I don't even think I said anything bad. I didn't try to come at any artist either. I just feel like hit records used to be bigger than they are today. It's kinda a fact. I can look at charts from 10-15 years ago and confidently say I know every single #1 song from that time. Now I look at charts and I don't really recognize most of those songs. That was all.

 

But of course certain people got in their feelings for absolutely no reason. I just wish that people instead of mindless downvoting and making fun of someone's avi like a little children, actually engaged in the discussion and explain to me why they don't agree with me. You know... that's what people do on forum... discuss... talk...

[PoisonPill]

3 hours ago, AdrianNicki said:

But of course certain people got in their feelings for absolutely no reason. I just wish that people instead of mindless downvoting and making fun of someone's avi like a little children, actually engaged in the discussion and explain to me why they don't agree with me. You know... that's what people do on forum... discuss... talk...

You sadly won’t find much of that on ATRL anymore. There are other forums like Pulse that aren’t stan boards and have more mature users.

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by PoisonPill

[Green]

I hope Kill Bill survives Taylor's album bomb and Halloween effect

[pride4jc1222]

1 hour ago, Green said:

I hope Kill Bill survives Taylor's album bomb and Halloween effect

It looks like KB was part of the Halloween effect: 

It could become a future Halloween staple, like Blinding Lights.

[Green]

39 minutes ago, pride4jc1222 said:

It looks like KB was part of the Halloween effect: 

It could become a future Halloween staple, like Blinding Lights.

 

Wow so it had an increase 

 

Now that the album bombs are over I think it will reach the 52 weeks 

[littlebodybigheart]

3 minutes ago, NewStanner said:

 

Poor IION

this is clearly satire lol this is its debut week and taylor is locked to occupy the top 3

[Green]

39 minutes ago, littlebodybigheart said:

this is clearly satire lol this is its debut week and taylor is locked to occupy the top 3

 

Does lip predictions only post fake news tweets now?

[littlebodybigheart]

3 hours ago, Green said:

 

Does lip predictions only post fake news tweets now?

they’re making kidding around because of people screenshooting talk of the chart’s “subscriber tweets” and posting them publicly. so now they’re just posting random stuff lol