charts discussion Hot 100 predictions 11/11/2023:Taylor 'Is It Over Now?' challenge for #1 on hot 100

[Cruel Summer]

4 minutes ago, Hot Volcano said:

Madonna - 12 #1s

Taylor - 11 #1s

 

This doesn't sit right with me

Don’t worry - with likely two Taylor’s Versions and potentially a studio album coming next year, it should look different soon!

[Green]

Taylor will probably pass Mariah and then The Beatles

 

The question is who will have more between Drake and Taylor (Drake just got 2 more quick #1's with his last album) 

[Klein]

1 minute ago, Green said:

Taylor will probably pass Mariah and then The Beatles

 

The question is who will have more between Drake and Taylor (Drake just got 2 more quick #1's with his last album) 

Taylor is absolutely not coming for Mariah's record. She's accumulating a lot lately but that's because she released a lot of albums. If she released pre-album singles then maybe, but her strategy of release (all at once) will prevent her from collecting enough #1s to reach Mariah's total.

[pride4jc1222]

20 minutes ago, Cruel Summer said:

Don’t worry - with likely two Taylor’s Versions and potentially a studio album coming next year, it should look different soon!

I think we will see TS 11 next (probably in the summer), then the re-recordings, and then TS 12 in the 2nd half of 2025.

[Sinister]

**** is one of her finest moments. It’s like False Gods

 

Ppl really sleeping on it. Is It Over sounds like Bejeweled and Questions had a baby. Not bad, but come on

[pride4jc1222]

25 minutes ago, Sinister said:

**** is one of her finest moments. It’s like False Gods

 

Ppl really sleeping on it. Is It Over sounds like Bejeweled and Questions had a baby. Not bad, but come on

The real tragedy is how dirty some of the original singles were done. Blank Space (TV) and Shake It Off (TV) deserved better.

[skizzo]

54 minutes ago, Sinister said:

Ppl really sleeping on it. Is It Over sounds like Bejeweled and Questions had a baby. Not bad, but come on

I dont get that feeling at all. IION is my #2 vault, and I really dont care for Bejeweled or Question so... if anything its like Out Of The Woods meets Dear Reader.

 

Bejeweled is more similar to Now That We Dont Talk.

Edited November 2, 2023 by skizzo

[PoisonPill]

I would like to see the metric shift to better reflect actual hits - instead of peak only, the primary measure should be weeks on chart/top 10. It doesn’t sit right that Drake has passed all these legendary hitmakers with these quick songs that peak high for one week then fade.

Edited November 2, 2023 by PoisonPill

[Arrows]

21 minutes ago, PoisonPill said:

I would like to see the metric shift to better reflect actual hits - instead of peak only, the primary measure should be weeks on chart/top 10. It doesn’t sit right that Drake has passed all these legendary hitmakers with these quick songs that peak high for one week then fade.

I believe Drake is doing even better in those metrics.

[littlebodybigheart]

49 minutes ago, PoisonPill said:

I would like to see the metric shift to better reflect actual hits - instead of peak only, the primary measure should be weeks on chart/top 10. It doesn’t sit right that Drake has passed all these legendary hitmakers with these quick songs that peak high for one week then fade.

the crazy thing is that now thanks to streaming, songs will spend more time in the top 10 and on the chart in general  so

[MusicLoverDude]

43 minutes ago, littlebodybigheart said:

the crazy thing is that now thanks to streaming, songs will spend more time in the top 10 and on the chart in general  so

Yeah. Songs rarely exit after just 20 weeks anymore 

[Ms. Togekiss]

5 hours ago, Hot Volcano said:

Madonna - 12 #1s

Taylor - 11 #1s

 

This doesn't sit right with me

Ofc it doesn’t. You’re an OTH. She could have only one #1 and you would still say she has one too many 

[Green]

1 hour ago, littlebodybigheart said:

the crazy thing is that now thanks to streaming, songs will spend more time in the top 10 and on the chart in general  so

 

1 hour ago, Arrows said:

I believe Drake is doing even better in those metrics.

 

 

Drake's last 2 #1's spent only 2 weeks in the top 10 and now they are free falling

 

First Person Shooter: 1-8-13

 

Slime You Out: 1-12-18-6-21-39

[Arrows]

14 minutes ago, Green said:

 

 

 

Drake's last 2 #1's spent only 2 weeks in the top 10 and now they are free falling

 

First Person Shooter: 1-8-13

 

Slime You Out: 1-12-18-6-21-39

He is the artist with the most weeks in the top 10 of all time, though.

[littlebodybigheart]

1 hour ago, Green said:

 

 

 

Drake's last 2 #1's spent only 2 weeks in the top 10 and now they are free falling

 

First Person Shooter: 1-8-13

 

Slime You Out: 1-12-18-6-21-39

i’m sure michael jackson and mariah and them have #1s like that

[fridayteenage]

Per wiki, top 3 are drake, rih', and Bieber for weeks in top ten

[Green]

45 minutes ago, littlebodybigheart said:

i’m sure michael jackson and mariah and them have #1s like that

 

Not really, and charts runs were shorter in the physical era.

[Rico Shameless v2]

3 hours ago, PoisonPill said:

I would like to see the metric shift to better reflect actual hits - instead of peak only, the primary measure should be weeks on chart/top 10. It doesn’t sit right that Drake has passed all these legendary hitmakers with these quick songs that peak high for one week then fade.

Drake’s streams remain fairly stable after the first week. He’s #13 on Hot 100 despite being ahead of most of the songs above him in streams. So maybe weeks in chart/T10 isn’t a great metric since songs will be on radio for 5-6 months straight hogging the T10, causing new debut hits to obviously peak and fall because they can’t compete with 60-70 million AI by a song on Week 47.

[Life Savers]

7 hours ago, Hot Volcano said:

Madonna - 12 #1s

Taylor - 11 #1s

 

This doesn't sit right with me

Well good because row two will be higher soon 

[Rico Shameless v2]

41 minutes ago, littlebodybigheart said:

i’m sure michael jackson and mariah and them have #1s like that

They do. “Bad” chart run from the top was 1-1-5-11-24-37, etc. for example. Way You Make Me Feel was #1 for a week and was out of the Top 50 a month later. Same for Dirty Diana. People just like to say whatever lol.

 

Back then it was easier to manipulate as well. Drake’s #1s being powered mostly by intentional streams and falling is perfectly normal given how Pop radio controls the T10.

[pride4jc1222]

5 minutes ago, Rico Shameless v2 said:

Drake’s streams remain fairly stable after the first week. He’s #13 on Hot 100 despite being ahead of most of the songs above him in streams. So maybe weeks in chart/T10 isn’t a great metric since songs will be on radio for 5-6 months straight hogging the T10, causing new debut hits to obviously peak and fall because they can’t compete with 60-70 million AI by a song on Week 47.

Not to mention, his recent big hits in Way 2 Sexy and Rich Flex should have been multi-week #1's, but were a victim of bad timing. W2S had 67M first week streams, spent 5 weeks at #1 on streaming songs, and 4 weeks at #1 on the Rolling Stone chart. RF had 59M first week streams and spent 3 weeks at #1 on streaming songs. There are multi-week #1's this year that didn't touch W2S and RF's total first week streams until Week 3 or even Week 4.

[littlebodybigheart]

15 minutes ago, Rico Shameless v2 said:

They do. “Bad” chart run from the top was 1-1-5-11-24-37, etc. for example. Way You Make Me Feel was #1 for a week and was out of the Top 50 a month later. Same for Dirty Diana. People just like to say whatever lol.

 

Back then it was easier to manipulate as well. Drake’s #1s being powered mostly by intentional streams and falling is perfectly normal given how Pop radio controls the T10.

and there you have it  idk why people are trying to re-write history acting like these old #1s spent decades in the top 10 and the new #1s are “falling quicker”. i didn’t have the correct stats and was too lazy to look them up so thank you!

[Inner Insanity]

Is It Over Now? deserves  Although I wish it was Say Don't Go. That should be the one she is pushing. 

[Green]

1 hour ago, littlebodybigheart said:

and there you have it  idk why people are trying to re-write history acting like these old #1s spent decades in the top 10 and the new #1s are “falling quicker”. i didn’t have the correct stats and was too lazy to look them up so thank you!

 

That's not Bad's entire chart run in the top 10 though

 

Either way those were different times. You can't compare chart runs of the 80's in the physical era with the streaming era.

Based on the Billboard all time charts MJ's weakest #1 (You are not alone) is bigger than at least 6 Drake #1's  

 

"You are not alone" ranks higher on the Billboard all time list than Jimmy Cooks, What's Next, Toosie Slide, Way 2 Sexy and his last 2 quick #1's (which probably will have a chart run worse than all those songs)

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ycSIqRrI1lMiVtPQQM85G2P63hayLgHhZuICTv9f0Ls/edit#gid=0

 

That doesn't mean Drake doesn't have huge hits though. He has top 10 hits that are bigger than his last quick #1's

[UNNAMI]

10 hours ago, Klein said:

Taylor is absolutely not coming for Mariah's record. She's accumulating a lot lately but that's because she released a lot of albums. If she released pre-album singles then maybe, but her strategy of release (all at once) will prevent her from collecting enough #1s to reach Mariah's total.

don't count out taylor. she got random Cruel Summer #1 by doing nothing, her fans are huge