charts discussion H100 predictions (9/9): Zach/Kacey #1, Miley #8, Selena #19

[Green]

 

[Green]

By the way Luke Combs' Fast Car is predicted to be #2 for an 8th week

Luke is the country Missy Elliott  

[Theluckyone]

In a perfect world:

- ZB and Kacey gets their first #1 this week, as this is likely the song’s only chance.

- Cruel summer sneaks in a week at #1 next week. Drake surprise releases and this spurs Taylor to finally release the long awaited CS MV, announce a date for her Disney/Netflix special with the LA posts, and push CS hard to get back at Drake for surprise releasing early on in the midnights era. 
- Luke sneaks in a week at #1 the week after. 

I can only dream, can’t I? 

Edited August 29, 2023 by Theluckyone

[Ger]

What a wild year, totally unpredictable.

[Fastlane]

14 minutes ago, Ger-55 said:

What a wild year, totally unpredictable.

I'm already pissed off about these songs that sit at number one for 15 weeks.

[DonnaSpring]

please fast car and please used to be young top 10

[DRjuss06]

1 hour ago, Ger-55 said:

What a wild year, totally unpredictable.

Wild? Trash year. Complete trash. 

[Likingstars]

Whats with all these country songs debuting #1??? Who’s this Zach??? Queen Kacey collabing with him so i assume he’s not problematic. Happy for her getting her first #1 tho

[CandleGuy]

Help this is so funny 

 

 

 

 

[brianc33710]

22 hours ago, Tekken_Guy said:

But this could be Fast Car's last chance at #1.

Actually, if Zach Bryan's album did indirectly take spins from Combs & Wallen as Talk Of The Charts has said, Fast Car could be in a good position to hit #1 the following week. He's ahead of Swift & a small gain back could increase this gap. This might be why he's removed his discount this week & holding off on any possible video releases til Fri. PTTR & a Drake release are Combs biggest threats. And PTTR could indeed jump Combs, giving him 9 #2 weeks. Combs airplay needs to stay steady for him to have a chance though. If this begins plunging his chances are gone. And when CHR began dumping Last Night they didn't waste any time doing so. EDIT: FC has more AC & HAC support than LN, both of which hold on to songs longer than T40. With a little less airplay at T40 than LN losing there wouldn't hurt Combs quite as much as it did Wallen.

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by brianc33710
Added for extra airplay explanation

[pride4jc1222]

23 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

Actually, if Zach Bryan's album did indirectly take spins from Combs & Wallen as Talk Of The Charts has said, Fast Car could be in a good position to hit #1 the following week. He's ahead of Swift & a small gain back could increase this gap. This might be why he's removed his discount this week & holding off on any possible video releases til Fri. PTTR & a Drake release are Combs biggest threats. And PTTR could indeed jump Combs, giving him 9 #2 weeks. Combs airplay needs to stay steady for him to have a chance though. If this begins plunging his chances are gone. And when CHR began dumping Last Night they didn't waste any time doing so. 

 

If Zach Bryan goes #1 this upcoming week and Fast Car the following week, we'd have 5 consecutive country #1 hits on the Hot 100.

[Green]

1 hour ago, brianc33710 said:

Actually, if Zach Bryan's album did indirectly take spins from Combs & Wallen as Talk Of The Charts has said, Fast Car could be in a good position to hit #1 the following week. He's ahead of Swift & a small gain back could increase this gap. This might be why he's removed his discount this week & holding off on any possible video releases til Fri. PTTR & a Drake release are Combs biggest threats. And PTTR could indeed jump Combs, giving him 9 #2 weeks. Combs airplay needs to stay steady for him to have a chance though. If this begins plunging his chances are gone. And when CHR began dumping Last Night they didn't waste any time doing so. 

 

 

Is Luke releasing a Fast Car video? It's weird he didn't release any official video yet (besides that live video a month ago)

[brianc33710]

14 minutes ago, pride4jc1222 said:

If Zach Bryan goes #1 this upcoming week and Fast Car the following week, we'd have 5 consecutive country #1 hits on the Hot 100.

Both Birmingham Country stations played Something In The Orange quite a bit. So hopefully they will give Bryan/Musgraves airplay this time too.

 

@Green I don't know if he'll release another video. I just think that Combs/label will wait till next week to try 1 more time before pulling out all stops for #1. 

 

[TrieLz]

2 hours ago, brianc33710 said:

Actually, if Zach Bryan's album did indirectly take spins from Combs & Wallen as Talk Of The Charts has said, Fast Car could be in a good position to hit #1 the following week. He's ahead of Swift & a small gain back could increase this gap. This might be why he's removed his discount this week & holding off on any possible video releases til Fri. PTTR & a Drake release are Combs biggest threats. And PTTR could indeed jump Combs, giving him 9 #2 weeks. Combs airplay needs to stay steady for him to have a chance though. If this begins plunging his chances are gone. And when CHR began dumping Last Night they didn't waste any time doing so. EDIT: FC has more AC & HAC support than LN, both of which hold on to songs longer than T40. With a little less airplay at T40 than LN losing there wouldn't hurt Combs quite as much as it did Wallen.

 

Nicki Minaj drop a new song this friday,

if she release multi version/remix + discount the song and Barbz mass buying it, she could debut #1 and blocking both Luke & Doja from #1

 

and the week after is when Drake & Olivia releasing their new album

[Tekken_Guy]

50 minutes ago, TrieLz said:

Nicki Minaj drop a new song this friday,

if she release multi version/remix + discount the song and Barbz mass buying it, she could debut #1 and blocking both Luke & Doja from #1

 

and the week after is when Drake & Olivia releasing their new album

If she only gets PDR numbers then I don’t think it’ll be enough for #1. Luke’s best hope is that Zach & Kacey are out of the running after this week, Doja’s new song siphons enough support from PTTR to keep it below, and Nicki’s new song doesn’t do much better than Princess Diana did.

 

Also applies for Taylor but she’ll need an actual push to get it past Luke.

[brianc33710]

1 hour ago, TrieLz said:

Nicki Minaj drop a new song this friday,

if she release multi version/remix + discount the song and Barbz mass buying it, she could debut #1 and blocking both Luke & Doja from #1

 

and the week after is when Drake & Olivia releasing their new album

Yes I saw Nicki is releasing but she tends to debut around #5 these days. That's not saying she can't debut at #1. But lately her (& all other rap) songs have started &/ stalled just short of #1. We will see. 

[pride4jc1222]

 

[Tekken_Guy]

Holy…at those Zach/Kacey numbers. With that song’s stability I wouldn’t rule out getting multiple weeks atop the Hot 100, especially if radio latches on. Even if country snubs it I could see Pop/HAC/AC eating this song up. As It Was, Anti-Hero and Flowers’s airplay was basically all those three formats and they were radio monsters. 

 

(And please remember not to leave Zach Bryan’s name out of the thread title when you update it. It’s very much his song as much as it is Kacey’s.)

[Green]

The gap between Zach and Luke is getting bigger

[Ger]

Excellent figures for Zach/Kacey.

 

15 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said:

Even if country snubs it I could see Pop/HAC/AC eating this song up.

I don't honestly, especially in Pop's case, considering it's a very slow song. We shall see. It didn't get any radio add this week, for instance.

[Tekken_Guy]

5 minutes ago, Ger-55 said:

Excellent figures for Zach/Kacey.

 

I don't honestly, especially in Pop's case, considering it's a very slow song. We shall see. It didn't get any radio add this week, for instance.

If it remains stable does it have a chance at staying #1 for Week 2?

[Ger]

41 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said:

If it remains stable does it have a chance at staying #1 for Week 2?

Sure it could, but I think it's going to experience an inevitable 2nd week slump and PTTR keeps gaining ground.

Edited August 30, 2023 by Ger-55

[Walk_Away21]

1 hour ago, pride4jc1222 said:

 

HANG ON MILEY @wish

[Maxxie]

I want Doja to get her solo #1 and I want Miley to be top 5.

[CottageHore]

15 hours ago, Theluckyone said:

In a perfect world:

- ZB and Kacey gets their first #1 this week, as this is likely the song’s only chance.

- Cruel summer sneaks in a week at #1 next week. Drake surprise releases and this spurs Taylor to finally release the long awaited CS MV, announce a date for her Disney/Netflix special with the LA posts, and push CS hard to get back at Drake for surprise releasing early on in the midnights era. 
- Luke sneaks in a week at #1 the week after. 

I can only dream, can’t I? 

Why do we want Luke to get #1? **** that guy. We need these country artists to get tf out of the #1 spot.

 

OT: Kacey better get her long-awaited #1 and then after that, anything except a country song at #1 will work for me