charts discussion Early Predictions (8/5/2023): Jason Aldean #1, K-Pop #5, Barbie World #9

[Green]

1 hour ago, =NEX= said:

Full country Top 3 will be a record I'm sure. Country music never really done well on Hot 100. Just check Garth Brooks' single peaks. Only 1 Top 10 at #5. So this is a very new development. 

 

Yes, it's a record. According to Billboard never has been 3 country songs in the top 3 at the same time:

 

There have been 2 country songs at the same time but never 3 country songs at the same time:

 

1981:

1. Eddie Rabbitt - I Love a Rainy Night

2. Dolly Parton - 9 to 5

 

2023:

1. Morgan Wallen - Last Night

2. Luke Combs - Fast Car

 

[BellKat]

Wasn't that Travis x Bad Bunny x the Weeknd collab meant to help this week? 

[Green]

30 minutes ago, BellKat said:

Wasn't that Travis x Bad Bunny x the Weeknd collab meant to help this week? 

 

It's already falling on streams  

 

It couldn't even pass Gunna, Jason Aldean and Morgan on Apple Music  

[Carrie-is-no-1]

So are we praying for Morgan to return to #1 now? It’s a Country emergency.
 

Everyone go stream Last Night 

[fridayteenage]

6 minutes ago, Carrie-is-no-1 said:

So are we praying for Morgan to return to #1 now? It’s a Country emergency.
 

Everyone go stream Last Night 

nah.

 

the top 5 should just be replaced by the next 5. that would give us all something to support.

[Punky Rooster]

Nice jump for Dua "Slow Burn" Lipa!

[TrieLz]

The Top 5 full with men (but not MPB) 

 

hope Selena hit a #5, very close to Kpop

 

Seven will secure that #10 for sure 

[Gorjesspazze9]

Still no song of the summer and it’s almost August 

 

also this list is tragic… but I mean the top 10 been pretty bad all year 

[Polgg48]

taylor swift impact, her sons smash and dominate

 

[Taylena]

Seven already out from the top 10. 

[fridayteenage]

4 minutes ago, Polgg48 said:

taylor swift impact, her sons smash and dominate

 

ed sheeran, conan gray, shawn mendes, james bay, vance joy?

 

if accurate this would appear to be the first all-male top 5 since the week before easy on me.

industry baby/stay/fancy like/bad habits/way 2 sexy

[Ger]

30 minutes ago, Carrie-is-no-1 said:

So are we praying for Morgan to return to #1 now? It’s a Country emergency.
 

Everyone go stream Last Night 

There's no other option, I fear, LN is a major bop.  

[Cap87]

27 minutes ago, Gorjesspazze9 said:

Still no song of the summer and it’s almost August 

 

also this list is tragic… but I mean the top 10 been pretty bad all year 

Waiting for Lil Nas X to save us

 

 

[shelven]

How are they coming up with that sales prediction without iTunes pop bars? I feel like we won't get a proper prediction for Jason until Friday once Billboard or some other music reporter presumably confirms the final digital sales total.

[bearman10]

What a glorious top 3 . TALENT 

[TrieLz]

15 minutes ago, shelven said:

How are they coming up with that sales prediction without iTunes pop bars? I feel like we won't get a proper prediction for Jason until Friday once Billboard or some other music reporter presumably confirms the final digital sales total.

Because Jason sold 100k sales in each wednesday & thursday, there’s no way he suddenly sell 1k copies in friday (even if his sales falling hard the next day after thursday)

 

so the projection he sold around 100k for the whole week seems right. If the sales projection are wrong, Jason still get the #2 with that huge streams, and Morgan will returns to #1 for a 15th week.

[BraveNewSeth]

2 hours ago, =NEX= said:

Full country Top 3 will be a record I'm sure. Country music never really done well on Hot 100. Just check Garth Brooks' single peaks. Only 1 Top 10 at #5. So this is a very new development. 

Yeah, same with Shania Twain. She only had 3 top 10 hits with one peaking at #2. Just another thing to blame streaming on. 

[Jude]

We were praying for Morgan racist to be dethroned but not by another racist FFS! 

[Lactose_Milk]

The top 3 wtf…

 

But Jungkook joining Jimin with the biggest drop from #1 is going to be hilarious.
 

Their fans have psychotically inflated these dudes' numbers that there #1s are meaningless when you will hold a record for the biggest drop lmao. 

[shelven]

23 minutes ago, TrieLz said:

Because Jason sold 100k sales in each wednesday & thursday, there’s no way he suddenly sell 1k copies in friday (even if his sales falling hard the next day after thursday)

 

so the projection he sold around 100k for the whole week seems right. If the sales projection are wrong, Jason still get the #2 with that huge streams, and Morgan will returns to #1 for a 15th week.

Yeah I mean I'm not saying he's gonna plummet to 1K per day. But right now the estimated gap is "only" 37 points. So if he did 70K as opposed to 100K (which would still be a lot), then the #1 is suddenly much more in doubt.

 

YouTube views plummeted pretty hard in today's update, but he's still holding strong on Spotify and Apple Music, so it's very hard to say what sales are looking like without pop bars (especially since, assuming these MAGAts aren't using BTS/stan tactics, everyone can only buy the song once, so that 230K from last week will make a pretty big dent in its sales ceiling this week).

[fridayteenage]

starting to fall on US YT; it'll be fun timing if the biggest day being thursday blocks him from the top.

 

Jason Aldean - Try That In A Small Town

7,553,747

-1,373,484

[LastGreatBloodline]

honestly I don't see the charts getting better anytime soon. Country audiences have fully transitioned to streaming and their hits will only get stronger from now on, while pop/rap hits keep falling in favor of catalogue streams.  

[TrieLz]

1 hour ago, Lactose_Milk said:

The top 3 wtf…

 

But Jungkook joining Jimin with the biggest drop from #1 is going to be hilarious.
 

Their fans have psychotically inflated these dudes' numbers that there #1s are meaningless when you will hold a record for the biggest drop lmao. 

Jungkook will not joining Jimin with the biggest drop, he still have 1M streams daily on Spotify 

 

1 hour ago, shelven said:

Yeah I mean I'm not saying he's gonna plummet to 1K per day. But right now the estimated gap is "only" 37 points. So if he did 70K as opposed to 100K (which would still be a lot), then the #1 is suddenly much more in doubt.

 

YouTube views plummeted pretty hard in today's update, but he's still holding strong on Spotify and Apple Music, so it's very hard to say what sales are looking like without pop bars (especially since, assuming these MAGAts aren't using BTS/stan tactics, everyone can only buy the song once, so that 230K from last week will make a pretty big dent in its sales ceiling this week).

yeah it’s hard to predict how much he sold this week.

but Jason & Morgan are locked for the Top 2 

[Hector]

This country is the pits  Now that the MAGAs are just as emboldened on both streaming & downloads to get their point across 

[45seconds]

The way Olivia was supposed to be the one to end this madness and she’s sinking omg