Marianah Adkins Posted October 21 Posted October 21 8 minutes ago, Armani? said: Hip Hopishness? Okay Unc Obama has lost his touch sigh
Armani? Posted October 21 Posted October 21 That quote isn't from Obama btw nnn It's from a older Black guy they just randomly interviewed at the rally in Arizona 4
superglowy Posted October 21 Posted October 21 5 hours ago, ClashAndBurn said: It's so amusing how cavalier you all are about doubling down on behavior that lost you an election 8 years ago. It's weird, right? It's almost as if these talking points and behaviours have resulted in Democrats having strong and over performing results in the three elections that have happened since then. Crazy.
ontherocks Posted October 21 Posted October 21 She needs something big to happen soon otherwise it's not gonna be enough.
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 21 Posted October 21 25 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said: Obama needs to shut up. That quote is not from Obama lol
karron0624 Posted October 21 Posted October 21 26 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said: Obama needs to shut up. 21 minutes ago, Marianah Adkins said: Obama has lost his touch sigh Should be noted that quote is not from Obama, but from a different person… 1 1
FameFatale Posted October 21 Posted October 21 10 minutes ago, ontherocks said: She needs something big to happen soon otherwise it's not gonna be enough. I hate that I feel the same way too like she's doing all the right things a campaign should do by doing rallies and appearances but it's a shame this election has become who can stage the biggest stunt for votes.
Communion Posted October 21 Posted October 21 (edited) 15 minutes ago, superglowy said: It's weird, right? It's almost as if these talking points and behaviours have resulted in Democrats having strong and over performing results in the three elections that have happened since then. ? Biden underperformed in 2020 and the 2022 midterms were a good performance but in a year that was one of the friendliest in terms of the map for Democrats in ages. There were very few pathways for Dems, for example, to lose any Senate seats in 2022. They walked away gaining two. Now, however, there's very little chance that they'll flip another Senate seat - let alone not continue to lose incumbent seats - in 2024, 2026, and 2028 given the horrific maps that lie ahead for them. This isn't to say Dems can't be an electoral force, but this white suburban coalition Dems found really only came through for one cycle and Dems have found themselves constantly on the age of handing over a government trifecta to fascists for the last 4 years. The idea that Dems are in some place of strong, electoral over-performance isn't rooted in fact. They're likely to not even hold the Senate for the rest of the decade?? lol Edited October 21 by Communion 1
Tovitov Posted October 21 Posted October 21 1 minute ago, CaptainMusic said: The new Suffolk poll Well it's over Ehh, the Harris +1 polls give me 2012 vibes. Like, pollsters are herding towards the narrative.
superglowy Posted October 21 Posted October 21 4 minutes ago, Communion said: ? Biden underperformed in 2020 and the 2022 midterms were a good performance but in a year that was one of the friendliest in terms of the map for Democrats in ages. There were very little pathway for Dems, for example, to lose any Senate seats in 2022. They walked away gaining two. Now, however, there's very little chance that they'll flip another Senate seat - let alone to continue to lose incumbent seats - in both 2024, 2026, and 2028 given the horrific maps that lie ahead for them. He won 306-232 and had a 4 point margin in the popular vote. I wouldn't say that's an underperformance at all. Yes after 2024, the maps get scary, but let's get through this walking nightmare first. 2 1
Communion Posted October 21 Posted October 21 1 minute ago, superglowy said: He won 306-232 and had a 4 point margin in the popular vote. The popular vote is a meaningless metric because it doesn't determine anything. Hillary Clinton got the most votes. She was still a huge electoral loser. Clinton won the popular vote by over 2 points and literally lost. 1
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 21 Posted October 21 3 minutes ago, Armani? said: Not a Georgia +4 2 polls in a row with Georgia +4 for Harris....I do believe it's a close race but definitely don't believe she has that kind of edge
Communion Posted October 21 Posted October 21 8 minutes ago, superglowy said: Yes after 2024, the maps get scary, but let's get through this walking nightmare first. Also, to make ir clear to everyone reading, it's not "after 2024". Dems are guaranteed to lose the Senate this year. Even in Dems' best case scenario, it's 51 R to 49 D. With a very likely reality of 52 R to 48 D. To suggest Democrats have no reflecting to do about their unwillingness to go on the offensive in electoral campaigning let alone in how they approach politics in general is unserious. Dems have essentially burned the candle at both ends, placing themselves in a position of promising their voters that they will weild power yet empowering Republican narratives to the point that Dems will never weild power again. 1
Marianah Adkins Posted October 21 Posted October 21 17 minutes ago, superglowy said: He won 306-232 and had a 4 point margin in the popular vote. I wouldn't say that's an underperformance at all. Yes after 2024, the maps get scary, but let's get through this walking nightmare first. Girl the Dems underperformed in 2020. The polls had Biden up by like 7-8 points and in the end Trump surged last minute to keep the election close (and the GOP even gained House seats when it was projected that Dems will be the ones to gain seats). You shouldve seen the panic in the election thread that year, its the reason why the girls here are traumatized from polling 2022 was a Dem overperformance though, I'll give you that. 1
Communion Posted October 21 Posted October 21 28 minutes ago, FameFatale said: I hate that I feel the same way too like she's doing all the right things a campaign should do by doing rallies and appearances but it's a shame this election has become who can stage the biggest stunt for votes. What I want for a final October drop: The enactment of an arms embargo on Israel What I'll probably get for a final October drop: her doing Rogan and him being shocked at how cool he finds her and he says he might even vote for her but she calls trans girls in high school sports "boys" somehow in the process 2
Tovitov Posted October 21 Posted October 21 Interstingly, the Washington Post poll uses mail(like actual, physical mail) and they got a much higher response rate than telephone polls. Something like 9% compared to 2%. On another note, theres apparently a recent quote from Quinnipiac floating around saying they didnt get a single response for an entire day of polling
woohoo Posted October 21 Posted October 21 1 minute ago, Tovitov said: Interstingly, the Washington Post poll uses mail(like actual, physical mail) and they got a much higher response rate than telephone polls. Something like 9% compared to 2%. On another note, theres apparently a recent quote from Quinnipiac floating around saying they didnt get a single response for an entire day of polling Kamala lead in like 4/7 swing states too there. We're back girls! Gay all seasons camp canceled! 5
superglowy Posted October 21 Posted October 21 11 minutes ago, Marianah Adkins said: Girl the Dems underperformed in 2020. The polls had Biden up by like 7-8 points and in the end Trump surged last minute to keep the election close (and the GOP even gained House seats when it was projected that Dems will be the ones to gain seats). You shouldve seen the panic in the election thread that year, its the reason why the girls here are traumatized from polling 2022 was a Dem overperformance though, I'll give you that. Another reason to not emotionally invest in polls. Trump may win, there is an argument for that with the immigration issue gaining more traction than expect and the Latino vote, but this feels like every other election, there is arguments that both are in a good spot to win. Trump may do it, but there's not the slightest sign it's inevitable which it feels like is being pushed in here and in fact Kamala seems in a good position. I'll have a litre of vodka and orange at hand for the results coming in though. 1 1
superglowy Posted October 21 Posted October 21 11 minutes ago, Communion said: What I want for a final October drop: The enactment of an arms embargo on Israel What I'll probably get for a final October drop: her doing Rogan and him being shocked at how cool he finds her and he says he might even vote for her but she calls trans girls in high school sports "boys" somehow in the process I hope after elected, she will pull for this. If not, I'll join the army/campaign to primary her.
woohoo Posted October 21 Posted October 21 9 minutes ago, Raspberries said: I, for one, am shocked We've known since 2016 she wasn't seated at a table full of Russians and Putin himself for no reason. 1 1
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