Communion Posted October 20 Posted October 20 (edited) [Camila/Dua/Katy/insert your favorite pop girl to hate] after seeing the sales for [C,XOXO/Radical Optimism/143/their flop album]: Edited October 20 by Communion 9
superglowy Posted October 20 Posted October 20 2012 we were being fed Romney was going to win, he lost. 2016 Clinton was guaranteed at like 97% certainty, she lost 2022 polls stated a huge Red wave was gonna crash down, wasnt even a paddling pool. Polling is broken. Don't stress, vote! 8 2
Communion Posted October 20 Posted October 20 (edited) 8 minutes ago, superglowy said: 2012 we were being fed Romney was going to win, he lost. 2016 Clinton was guaranteed at like 97% certainty, she lost 2022 polls stated a huge Red wave was gonna crash down, wasnt even a paddling pool. Polling is broken. Don't stress, vote! This is wrong. Polling largely predicted no red wave was happening. The red wave was a product of punditry, not pollsters. Edited October 20 by Communion 1 3
Lil Mistee Posted October 20 Posted October 20 7 minutes ago, Communion said: This is wrong. Polling largely predicted no red wave was happening. The red wave was a product of punditry, not pollsters. That gif LMAOOO
superglowy Posted October 20 Posted October 20 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Communion said: This is wrong. Polling largely predicted no red wave was happening. The red wave was a product of punditry, not pollsters. https://people.com/politics/why-midterm-polls-falsely-predicted-red-wave/ I'm just saying, polls mean Nada. And even an increase in Republican early voting might not be bad, how many of them are Republican women pissed about abortion. Edited October 20 by superglowy 1
Lil Mistee Posted October 20 Posted October 20 12 minutes ago, Communion said: This is wrong. Polling largely predicted no red wave was happening. The red wave was a product of punditry, not pollsters. Dems still overperformed a lot compared to the polling.
Relampago. Posted October 20 Posted October 20 (edited) Why do I lowkey feel like this race being so close is going to give us some interesting and unexpected results like WI, MI, AZ and NV going red but NC, PA and GA go blue so Harris wins anyways Edited October 20 by Relampago. 2
Lil Mistee Posted October 20 Posted October 20 If Trump wins, would this be the first time a president won his first election, lost his second, then won his third? also if he wins against a woman again.. mess
Ashley Banks Posted October 20 Posted October 20 1 minute ago, Lil Mistee said: If Trump wins, would this be the first time a president won his first election, lost his second, then won his third? also if he wins against a woman again.. mess No, Grover Cleveland did the same thing in the late 1800s. 1 3
Lil Mistee Posted October 20 Posted October 20 3 minutes ago, Ashley Banks said: No, Grover Cleveland did the same thing in the late 1800s. Sorry idk who this man is 14
GhostBox Posted October 20 Posted October 20 6 minutes ago, Lil Mistee said: If Trump wins, would this be the first time a president won his first election, lost his second, then won his third? also if he wins against a woman again.. mess I really don't see the Dems putting forth a female candidate again for a long time if Trump wins again. (Sorry big gretch). 3
shelven Posted October 20 Posted October 20 13 minutes ago, Relampago. said: Why do I lowkey feel like this race being so close is going to give us some interesting and unexpected results like WI, MI, AZ and NV going red but NC, PA and GA go blue so Harris wins anyways People treat "the Blue Wall will stick together" like it's some unbreakable rule when in reality they came extremely close to splitting in both 2016 (Trump won Michigan by 0.2%) and 2020 (Biden won Wisconsin by 0.6%). If there's no big systematic polling error this cycle (a big if), I think there's a way bigger chance than most people realize that Harris only wins 1 or 2 out of the 3. The Harris campaign really needs to focus on NC and/or GA as a back-up (maybe AZ too but they seem to be giving up there) because "sweep the Blue Wall" is a more precarious path than it seems. 4 1
Blade Posted October 20 Posted October 20 Funny how Black turnout was at an all time high in GA when Obama got bodied by McCain and Romney there. That "other" group is really pulling a lot of weight. 13 minutes ago, shelven said: People treat "the Blue Wall will stick together" like it's some unbreakable rule when in reality they came extremely close to splitting in both 2016 (Trump won Michigan by 0.2%) and 2020 (Biden won Wisconsin by 0.6%). If there's no big systematic polling error this cycle (a big if), I think there's a way bigger chance than most people realize that Harris only wins 1 or 2 out of the 3. The Harris campaign really needs to focus on NC and/or GA as a back-up (maybe AZ too but they seem to be giving up there) because "sweep the Blue Wall" is a more precarious path than it seems. Oh this past week I fully came to terms that the blue wall will probably not vote together this time. It's so frustrating how WI started as Kamala's best blue wall polling state and not its tightened to basically even like the others. Still banking on the final Marquette (WI) and Selzer (IA) polls to show some Harris strength among white voters but I fear it's looking likely they tightened up or WI even shows a Trump lead. In less than 16 days we'll never have to look at an election poll this cycle ever again.. 1
GhostBox Posted October 20 Posted October 20 He can't answer any basic question. His mind is lost. Worse than Biden's 🤷 1
ClashAndBurn Posted October 20 Posted October 20 (edited) Gee, I'm so glad the "hopeful" scenario involves us having to endure promises of expanding fracking and drilling beyond what Trump did in his first four years. Here is the article itself: Edited October 20 by ClashAndBurn
Sannie Posted October 20 Posted October 20 Honestly can't believe how this election is only about two weeks away. I remember in 2022 being like, "we still have two years before we have to worry" and now it's here. Btw, that Trump McDonald's PR stunt is just so gross and pathetic, and his supporters will eat it up. The franchisee who decided to force their underpaid workers to participate in that should have their license revoked by the company.
Communion Posted October 20 Posted October 20 (edited) 58 minutes ago, superglowy said: https://people.com/politics/why-midterm-polls-falsely-predicted-red-wave/ I'm just saying, polls mean Nadia. 55 minutes ago, Lil Mistee said: Dems still overperformed a lot compared to the polling. Girlies I can't have this conversation for the 50th time jknkjnkjn The article linked above bases the entire article on a single Insider Advantage poll from 10/31 for Whitmer's race. For the Senate races in 2022, the results were largely in the margin of error: I hate having this tone because I maintain it's both true that Beasley/Barnes DID over-perform compared to how Democratic donors expected them to in 202, and could have had a chance, especially Barnes, if the money wasted on someone like Demings was instead given to him, and that polling was largely within the margin of error. If you actually look at 538's averages (I have to use RCP's for GA because their pre-runoff averages are seemingly not accessible) at this point in the election.. polls looked right! So like.. yes, the last minute flood of right-wing pollsters skewed the PA/AZ races to seem closer than they were ever, but by the same token, before that point in time, the same models had people convinced Democrats had a chance to swing both OH and FL yet reality proved neither were close. And that the greater data story is in part that pollsters had to seemingly adjust after over-estimating Biden's white/male/indie support in 2020. That these model adjustments seemed largely 1) correct but also 2) susceptible to manipulation by Republican pollsters given the new weight to pro-R demographics. And that the biggest outliers where were these demographics could break for Dems more than expected (AZ, PA - though Fetterman ended up pulling in more black support than Shapiro which feels like an important data point) or, in the inverse, where Dems lost even more white support than expected (OH, FL). Edited October 20 by Communion
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