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ūüĒįUS Midterm Elections ThreadūüĒį AZ/MS/FL/GA recounts

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lightstheyblindme
Posted (edited)

 

:sistrens: 

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Wonderland

Perched :duca: 

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Communion

Um I asked in HQ if it was okay for me to make this thread in June and I got the go. :celestial5:

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lightstheyblindme

May 8th Primary Roundup

 

INDIANA - Senate seat; IN-6

  • Joe Donnelly (D) is defending his Senate seat here; this is one of the Republican's best pickup opportunities of 2018
  • Messer and Rokita are neck-and-neck for the Republican Senate seat¬†nomination; whoever wins will face off against Donnelly
  • Mike Pence's brother is running for Representative of the IN-6 district, so there's that

 

OHIO - Governor; Senate seat; OH-12 & OH-16

  • Kasich can't run for Governor because of term limits
    • DeWine is the Republican frontrunner for the Governor nomination for¬†but is being challenged by Mary Taylor
    • Richard Cordray is the Democratic frontrunner for the Governor nomination¬†but Dennis Kucinich (backed by Bernie Sanders) is his biggest opposition
  • Sherrod Brown (D) is defending his Senate seat in the fall - Jim Renacci is heavily favored to snag the Republican nomination tomorrow
  • OH-12 and OH-16 have moderate Democratic frontrunners; the Republican side has moderate frontrunners with far-right challengers (Dems are supporting the far-right challengers because they think these loons will be easier to beat in the fall)

 

WEST VIRGINIA - Senate seat; WV-3

  • Joe Manchin (D) is defending his seat in the fall - Trump won 68% of WV in 2016 so it will be a tough one for Dems
  • 3 Republicans fighting over the nomination to face off against Manchin:
    • Even Jenkins: the frontrunner; getting attack ads because he used to be a Democrat
    • Patrick Morissey: right behind Jenkins; endorsed by Ted Cruz and Rand Paul
    • Don Blankenship: fresh out of prison for violating mine standards as a Big Coal CEO which led to the death of 29 of his employees; he's tried to position himself as the Trump-like candidate in this race by giving his rivals insulting nicknames (he calls Mitch McConnell "Cocaine Mitch")

 

NORTH CAROLINA - NC-2; NC-9; NC-13

  • NC's 2nd, 9th and 13th districts are the best pickup opportunities for Democrats
  • NC-9 and NC-13 are very much within reach for Dems - both of the probable Dem nominees are strong
  • NC-2 is more of a reach for Dems - Romley and Coleman will duke it out for the Democratic nomination

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Wonderland

So many interesting Primary results tomorrow! Crazy to think we’re on our way to the midterms :jonny2:

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LuLuDrops

Get that thread, girl :eli:

 

PerchT for a herculean comeback and Dems retake the Senate despite the odds the media portrays :duca:

 

Politigeeks on Atlasforum say Braun would Donnelly's biggest competition, hope for the other two to get picked :cm:

 

If Blankenship wins the primary it will could be both a dream if he flops massively in November or scare everyone if someone like is only one election away. Manchin would stomp on ha while Atlas says Jenkins would give Manchin a run for his money.

 

Excited :duca:

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lightstheyblindme
12 minutes ago, LuLuDrops said:

Get that thread, girl :eli:

 

PerchT for a herculean comeback and Dems retake the Senate despite the odds the media portrays :duca:

 

Politigeeks on Atlasforum say Braun would Donnelly's biggest competition, hope for the other two to get picked :cm:

 

If Blankenship wins the primary it will could be both a dream if he flops massively in November or scare everyone if someone like is only one election away. Manchin would stomp on ha while Atlas says Jenkins would give Manchin a run for his money.

 

Excited :duca:

I'm really rooting for one of those tea party bitches in OH-12/OH-16 to get the Republican nomination :duck::duck: that would be a big help in those districts

and I would live if Blankenship won the Republican nomination after all the national Republicans DRAGGED him :skull:  a Trump tea once again

DckdPC3WkAAAEKS.jpg

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Mike91

I don't know why people think Manchin, etc are in trouble. WV elected a democratic governor in 2016 (even though he became a republican a few months later :rip:) despite Trump's massive win.

 

The way people vote for president isn't necessarily how they vote down ticket all of the time.

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lightstheyblindme
5 minutes ago, Mike91 said:

I don't know why people think Manchin, etc are in trouble. WV elected a democratic governor in 2016 (even though he became a republican a few months later :rip:) despite Trump's massive win.

 

The way people vote for president isn't necessarily how they vote down ticket all of the time.

a few reasons the red state Dems defending Senate seats are in trouble:

(1) last time they ran was in 2012 which was a presidential election where Democratic turnout is highest and slightly favors Dems

(2) several of them got Hail Mary's in 2012 where they way outperformed their polls on Election Day or their opponent did something stupid

(3) there has been an increase in party allegiance over the past few years + Republican turnout is high for midterms

 

DckdPC3WkAAAEKS.jpg

 

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Mike91
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, lightstheyblindme said:

a few reasons the red state Dems defending Senate seats are in trouble:

(1) last time they ran was in 2012 which was a presidential election where Democratic turnout is highest and slightly favors Dems

(2) several of them got Hail Mary's in 2012 where they way outperformed their polls on Election Day or their opponent did something stupid

(3) there has been an increase in party allegiance over the past few years + Republican turnout is high for midterms

 

DckdPC3WkAAAEKS.jpg

 

Dems are treating these midterms like a general election, and they are far more energized, so any historical disadvantage they have doesn't really apply (that's of course assuming they actually get out and vote). If Clinton were president, they'd be screwed.

 

There's just nothing to suggest that most of the red state dems up for re-election are in trouble. People going by 2016 results aren't taking everything into account. Even if dems lose a couple of seats, there are potentially four seats up for grabs on the republican side (NV, TN, AZ, and even MS). TX is a wildcard. I have a hard time believing Beto can beat Ted but we'll see. Texas is no different from CA in terms of demographics so if dems can take advantage of getting people registered and to the polls, Beto could squeak out a win. Again, it's not something I'd bet on though I do think the race will be closer than people think.

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Wonderland

If Blankenship wins tomorrow then I think the Senate could be SNATCHED.

 

NV,  AZ, TN & TX are all legitimate shots. Winning all of those would give the Dems a good buffer against any upsets as well.

 

There could be 2 seats up for election in Arizona if McCain resigns or dies in the next 20 days. That'd be a real spanner in the works.

 

Image result for atrl gif

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LuLuDrops
Posted (edited)

To have at least 51 Senate seats (avoid the Pence tiebreaker), we need to hold on to every seat and flip 2. I think that's possible if the Arizona/Nevada numbers are to be believed. Hopefully Tennessee is not too far off the mark either. Tennessee's current Senator won't even say the GOPer's name, but always compliments the TN Democratic nominee who is his friend :ahh: 

 

Nevada polled several topics like healthcare and the state says it's a very important issue so Rosen is already out with ads :alexz:

 

McSally lags behind Sinema in AZ polling, but Democrats would prefer Ward or Arpaio (who would get absolutely crushed) :eli:

 

Florida is the one that worries me, on top of being the flip flop state, the Governor has steady numbers and SOOO much money that he's self-financing with :dancehall: Pull through, Nelson!

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Wonderland
6 minutes ago, LuLuDrops said:

Florida is the one that worries me, on top of being the flip flop state, the Governor has steady numbers and SOOO much money that he's self-financing with :dancehall: Pull through, Nelson!

I think the states of most concern from a Democratic view are Florida, Missouri, West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana.

 

If it turns out to be a bad night for Dems those seats will certainly fall. I just hope that the senate gap doesn't expand as then it's even harder to win back in 2020 when if there's a Democratic President, you'd want all chambers to push through policy and fix everything:jonny5: 

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lightstheyblindme

Missouri is basically lost at this point - McCaskill is extremely unpopular there and Missouri just gets redder and redder every year

Texas is a pipe dream and it's not going to happen. Tennessee is a much better pick-up opportunity

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LuLuDrops
Posted (edited)

The irony that unless more Dem candidates in California (of all places) drop out of CA House races then we could end up blowing the US House for everyone else :skull: That top 2 primary system could result in some R v R races if the field is too crowded :rip: Fix it, Cali!

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Icarus

If Don Blankenship wins in West Virginia I will SCREAM. The death of the Republican Party. 

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Floraholique
1 hour ago, Wonderland said:

I think the states of most concern from a Democratic view are Florida, Missouri, West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana.

 

If it turns out to be a bad night for Dems those seats will certainly fall. I just hope that the senate gap doesn't expand as then it's even harder to win back in 2020 when if there's a Democratic President, you'd want all chambers to push through policy and fix everything:jonny5: 

I honestly think WV is safe, but the rest that you mentioned are in trouble. I honestly think MO is going flipping if Greitens hurts the GOPs image into the August primary. Like, McCaskill somehow got so lucky with her past two senate elections and she may get lucky with a third term

 

1 hour ago, lightstheyblindme said:

Missouri is basically lost at this point - McCaskill is extremely unpopular there and Missouri just gets redder and redder every year

Texas is a pipe dream and it's not going to happen. Tennessee is a much better pick-up opportunity

This, and Dems should leave McCaskill to fend for herself because her chances of reelection are slim unless more Greitens stuff breaks after the primaries

 

If anything, Dems really need to protect Nelson, Heitkamp, and Donnelly while also supporting Bredesen, Sinema, and Rosen. I’m still lowkey holding out for Beto though :celestial5:

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Wonderland
36 minutes ago, Floraholique said:

I honestly think WV is safe, but the rest that you mentioned are in trouble. I honestly think MO is going flipping if Greitens hurts the GOPs image into the August primary. Like, McCaskill somehow got so lucky with her past two senate elections and she may get lucky with a third term

OMG I'm just reading about this and damn this is a scandal :eek: 

 

How does she always seem to get a scandal on her side at just the right times? :rip:  Though she's going to have to work to try tie the senate candidate to the governor.

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lightstheyblindme

10:30 PM (ET) Results: The establishment wings of both parties got what they wanted.

 

West Virginia

  • Morissey has won the¬†Republican¬†nomination for the Senate race against Joe Manchin in West Virginia
  • Democrats really wanted this result and spent a ton of money against Jenkins who was the strongest candidate

 

Ohio

  • Jim Renacci has won the Republican nomination¬†for the Senate race against Sherrod Brown in Ohio
  • Renacci is a strong candidate with good funding - Republicans are happy
  • In the Ohio governor's race:¬†Cordray beat Kucinich for the Democratic nomination (Dems are happy because Kucinich is a nutcase) and DeWine won the nomination on the Republican side.
  • Cordray and DeWine are both strong, well-funded, centrist candidates and this Governor's¬†race will be extremely close
    • A recent poll on this race showed DeWine beating Corday 47 to 39¬†
  • In the OH-2 and OH-9 House races, Dems got their strongest candidates (Mel Hall and Liz Watson)¬†which is good because these are seats they really need to target in order to win the House this year

 

Indiana

  • Mike Braun has won the Republican nomination to face off against Joe Donnelly for his Indiana Senate seat
  • Republicans are happy¬†

North Carolina

  • Dems really want to pick up the NC-9¬†
  • This seat is currently held by Rob Pittenger (R)
  • He just lost his primary to a much stronger candidate, Mark Harris (R)
  • Republicans are excited about this
  • Democrats have a SUPER strong candidate to face off against Mark Harris - his name is Dan McCready (D)
  • He is a very wealthy ex-Marine who created a ton of jobs in his district by starting a solar energy company
  • He's kind of fine:

           Image of Dan McCready

 

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Wonderland

These senate results are all very good for Republicans in November. Not good for Dems I think losses are coming.

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Monster Megamind
3 hours ago, Wonderland said:

These senate results are all very good for Republicans in November. Not good for Dems I think losses are coming.

Primaries have no link with main elections. 

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Temporal

Oh, we got a midterms thread

 

SO happy Don Blankenship lost :jonny: 

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Wonderland
1 hour ago, Monster Megamind said:

Primaries have no link with main elections. 

They do when the Republican party are electing their best candidates to compete as opposed to far right walkovers.

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Floraholique

Dems reclaiming the House seems a little bit more of a reality now. However, I could see them losing Indiana now along with Missouri

 

I honestly think the best Dems can do is keep 49 seats or end up with 50 seats in their favor. They can’t realisitically gain a majority without picking up NV, AZ, and TN while also keeping all of its seats save one that it can lose, and right now that lost seat is either going to be MO or IN

 

All I’ll say is McCaskill is very unpopular but has the Greitens scandal on her side and Donnelly is not as unpopular I think. Then again, he doesn’t have a GOP scandal of Missouri’s gravity in Indiana. However, Donnelly is not the Ranking Member of the Senate HSGAC which McCaskill is...

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lightstheyblindme

Screen-Shot-2018-05-10-at-11.57.07-PM.png

 

:biblio: 

 

 

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