charts discussion iTunes Discussion

[umich]

Adele’s lead is huge but what are we expecting overall? Currently 10x the #2 song. 

[HeWon'tGo]

6 hours ago, umich said:

Adele’s lead is huge but what are we expecting overall? Currently 10x the #2 song. 

I was told that if Fancy Like is 0.1 at the end of the day, we are looking at 80k for day 1.

 

[jdanton2]

kworb's itune chart now only lists 100 songs . previously the bottom half of the top 200 was not accurate anyway. the official itune chart still lists the top 200. biggest reason for the smaller chart is that sales are not what they used to be . if they still were  to do a top 1500 alot of the lower songs would probably  be tied .

[Ger]

2 hours ago, HeWon'tGo said:

I was told that if Fancy Like is 0.1 at the end of the day, we are looking at 80k for day 1.

 

Really? Shouldn't it be around 30k first day? She would need a bigger lead for 80k in one day.

[HeWon'tGo]

11 minutes ago, Ger-55 said:

Really? Shouldn't it be around 30k first day? She would need a bigger lead for 80k in one day.

Apparently there is something called trajectory switch. It's a contrajectory with iTunes: when a song exceeds an >85% difference to the 2nd song, you have to double the number to get the exact number.

 

Here's some explanation:

 

1 hour ago, GAGAISTHEBESTYA said:

Look What You Made Me Do also had an 95% lead over the 2nd song first day but managed to sell over 200K DIGITAL first day because of trajectory switch.

  Reveal hidden contents

1	Taylor Swift - Look What You Made Me Do		1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
2	Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee - Despacito (feat. Justin Bieber) [Remix]	$	0.0796	0.0739	0.0688	0.0640	0.0640	0.0601	0.0607	0.0897	0.1423	0.1422	0.8513	0.8099	0.7783	0.7394	0.7251
3	Demi Lovato - Tell Me You Love Me		0.0771	0.0758	0.0743	0.0721	0.0721	0.0687	0.0685	0.0887	0.1250	0.1249	0.6029	0.5555	0.5154	0.4606	0.4086
4	Luke Bryan - Light It Up		0.0638	0.0632	0.0635	0.0631	0.0630	0.0635	0.0682	0.1010	0.1595	0.1595	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000
5	Liam Payne - Strip That Down (feat. Quavo)	$	0.0612	0.0571	0.0542	0.0515	0.0515	0.0497	0.0527	0.0822	0.1381	0.1381	0.8199	0.7856	0.7405	0.7000	0.6796
6	Niall Horan - Slow Hands	$	0.0559	0.0530	0.0500	0.0476	0.0476	0.0460	0.0481	0.0743	0.1246	0.1246	0.7269	0.6946	0.6539	0.6223	0.6006
7	Charlie Puth - Attention	$	0.0496	0.0464	0.0439	0.0414	0.0413	0.0398	0.0425	0.0668	0.1115	0.1113	0.6597	0.6289	0.5983	0.5659	0.5513
8	Portugal. The Man - Feel It Still		0.0457	0.0431	0.0402	0.0383	0.0383	0.0365	0.0376	0.0596	0.1021	0.1019	0.5940	0.5573	0.5179	0.4912	0.4690
9	Demi Lovato - Sorry Not Sorry	$	0.0428	0.0397	0.0363	0.0326	0.0325	0.0283	0.0253	0.0292	0.0371	0.0370	0.1311	0.0774	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
10	Shawn Mendes - There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back	$	0.0419	0.0392	0.0371	0.0352	0.0352	0.0341	0.0358	0.0563	0.0957	0.0957	0.5641	0.5425	0.5122	0.4912	0.4777

Look What You Made Me Do was 10x ahead of Despacito, who was selling 61k a week (average of 8.7k a day). So within a technicality, she was supposed to sell only ~90k first day, but she sold almost ~200k on iTunes because of trajectory switch (because once you reach >90%... there's no much room left for you to really grow from then)

  Reveal hidden contents

https://www.vulture.com/2017/08/taylor-swifts-look-what-you-made-me-do-puts-up-big-sales.html 

 

LWYMMD sold ~200k first day

He now estimates 65k for day 1:

 

1 hour ago, GAGAISTHEBESTYA said:

Sales estimation:

 

Digital Sales: +65.000 (1st day)

 

Break Down:

She's out selling the whole top 50 combined in the first day.

Whole top 50 combined sales, 2->49 (sales track via Billboard Digital Song Sales/7 to get the average daily sales) -> ~60.000 total.

 

Another algorithm to make it faster.

- She's outselling x10 Fancy Like, which generates about 3k sales a day (It has 21k sales last week) -> 30k

- x2 the number due to trajectory switch once you reach >85% -> 60k total.

 

[Ger]

4 minutes ago, HeWon'tGo said:

Apparently there is something called trajectory switch. It's a contrajectory with iTunes: when a song exceeds an >85% difference to the 2nd song, you have to double the number to get the exact number.

 

Here's some explanation:

 

He now estimates 65k for day 1:

 

 

Oh interesting, thank you. This is indeed impressive.

[GAGAISTHEBESTYA]

Considering how iTunes has literally been dead for the past few years. This is beyond amazing 

[GAGAISTHEBESTYA]

I've never seen a song that has 90% lead ever since LWYMMD too 

[HeWon'tGo]

@Ger-55 sorry babe, apparently there is no trajectory switch. I was lied to again

[HeWon'tGo]

@GAGAISTHEBESTYA the formula lied

[Ger]

1 hour ago, HeWon'tGo said:

@Ger-55 sorry babe, apparently there is no trajectory switch. I was lied to again

I don't feel so outdated with charts then.

[GAGAISTHEBESTYA]

1 hour ago, HeWon'tGo said:

@GAGAISTHEBESTYA the formula lied

I refused to believe it sold 15k first 5 hours and only 30k next 24 hours lmaooo

[GAGAISTHEBESTYA]

@HeWon'tGo so how can we explain it for LWYMMD though (and basically ME!, Hello,... basically every song that has >85% lead on Kworb before)

[HeWon'tGo]

13 minutes ago, GAGAISTHEBESTYA said:

I refused to believe it sold 15k first 5 hours and only 30k next 24 hours lmaooo

maybe it's true BB hates Adele

 

or maybe it was different back then u know, we are deep in the streaming era now

[GAGAISTHEBESTYA]

1 minute ago, HeWon'tGo said:

maybe it's true BB hates Adele

 

or maybe it was different back then u know, we are deep in the streaming era now

back then I always used a different trajectory and they always end up almost the same  maybe time's changed. This is also the first song that has >90% these past few years so I didn't have the chance to see the change

[brianc33710]

Hahaha! "Lets Go Brandon" by Loza Alexander really does say "Fu.ck Joe Biden"! LGB/FJB has had download numbers not that much under EOM the last 2 days & 1.8 million YT views in last 10 days. Im interested in where it charts next week too.

 

Heres LGB/FJB for those who want to hear it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qr_F_XQrukM

[GhostBox]

On 10/19/2021 at 8:31 PM, brianc33710 said:

Hahaha! "Lets Go Brandon" by Loza Alexander really does say "Fu.ck Joe Biden"! LGB/FJB has had download numbers not that much under EOM the last 2 days & 1.8 million YT views in last 10 days. Im interested in where it charts next week too.

 

Heres LGB/FJB for those who want to hear it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qr_F_XQrukM

Nah we’re good ✌?

[brianc33710]

LGB/FJB is still #2, although down to 0.6163. But Fancy like is up to 0.4249 + 0.0569 (Kesha remix) = 0.4818. FL may catch up this weekend.

[brianc33710]

Now there are 3 Lets Go Brandons on the ITunes chart. The original is #3 at 0.4871. But theres a new LGB at #1 thats pushed Adele EOM down to 0.5305. A 3rd LGB, a Rock song, is #60 w/ 0.0360. All 3 are in the bright green. But #1 is gaining so fast that #3 & #60 are losing ground percentage wise.

[jdanton2]

Monster Mash managed to reach #1 on itunes this year despite Adele and the horrible  Let's Go Brandon songs.

[Paiuk]

iTunes US:

 

#17 (+6) “All I Want for Christmas Is You”

[Paiuk]

US iTunes Albums Chart:

 

#5. (+1) When Christmas Comes Around... - Kelly Clarkson

 

39. (+20) Merry Christmas - Mariah Carey

[jdanton2]

instrumental song and is only 40 seconds long.

 

3

+9

Lilorx - Racing Into the Night (Ringtone Remix)

[Paiuk]

iTunes US (R&B/Soul):

 

#14. SZA “I Hate U” — (+32)

Edited December 3, 2021 by Paiuk

[Paiuk]